Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index

Transcription

1 November 2018 Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index Released: 10:00 am Beijing Time December Overview In November 2018, the Mastercard Caixin BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 31.3, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 31.3% of overall economic input activities that month, up 1.5 ppts from October (Chart 1). The rising NEI was due to the increase of capital input. New economy is defined as following: 1) human capital intensive, technology intensive and capital light, 2) sustainable rapid growth, and 3) in line with the strategic new industries defined by the government. Please refer to our previous reports (March 2016 and March 2017) for the list of NEI sectors. Primary Inputs The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weights of the index, respectively. The rising in the November NEI reading came from the increase of capital input (Chart 2). Technology input index was on an uptrend since July, coming in at 29.3 this month, with 1.9 MoM increase. Capital input fluctuated widely in the recent year, rebounding to 37.1 this month, with 2.5 MoM increase. Labor input index showed a stable trend, increasing slightly to 27.6 this month, with 0.5 MoM increase.

2 Taking the weights into account, percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were 0.2, 0.9, and 0.5 ppts, respectively. The net NEI change was 1.5 ppts in total (Chart 3). As for sectors, the rankings were the same as previous month, with the New IT industry forming the largest proportion of the New Economy Index and contributing 12.1 ppts to NEI. New Energy Vehicles was the industry with the lowest ranking, only contributing 0.1 ppts this month (Chart 4).

3 New Economy Employment In November 2018, the average monthly entry-level salary of the New Economy was RMB 10,212, increasing from last month s level of RMB 10,150 (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job openings.

4 Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 27.1% of the total in November, 0.5% higher than the previous month. At the same time, the compensation share of New Economy increased by 0.4%. Accordingly, the average entry salary level of New Economy declined compared to the whole economy. The entry-level salary premium of the New Economy decreased, from 3.2% in October to 3.1% as compared to economy-wide counterparts (Chart 6). Economic Trends Based on Employment Data This month we broke down employment data of enterprises above designated size. We defined enterprises as exporting ones if the proportion of delivery value for exports is nonzero, and employment data of both exporting and non-exporting enterprises were collected dated back to April, In the past 18 months, both export and non-export enterprises employment showed an inverted U-shape (Chart 7), while exporting enterprises experienced faster rises and declines. When U.S.-China trade friction worsened in March & April 2018, the employment of exporting enterprises increased sharply by 40% to 50% higher than their non-exporting counterparts, but half a year later, the employment gap between two groups shrank.

5 We decomposed the employment data of exporting enterprises in Chart 8. In the first half year of 2018, recruitment of general workers and operators contributed to large part of new employment but declined after June. Since August, employment of sales representatives increased sharply. It s apparent that exporting enterprises expanded production when there were signs of trade friction and focused on sales promotion after trade war occurred. We also explored the employment of waiter, food courier and express courier to find the change of consumption structure. Waiter is irreplaceable for traditional catering industry and demands for waiters are determined by customers in the restaurants. Couriers are more related to food take-outs and e-commerce. As shown in Chart 9-1, the employment of waiters declined since May, dropping to about half amount of May. The employment of couriers peaked in June and July and decreased

6 since then. Last year, the employment and average salary of express couriers jumped in September in response to Nov.11 Shopping Festival (Chart 9-1 and 9-2). The effect didn t reoccur this year. It s noted that recently both the employment and average salary of food couriers were significantly higher than that of waiters, indicating the high demands for take-out dining. It is yet to be verified whether it was consumption upgrading or downgrading. City Rankings of the New Economy Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities were shown in Chart 10. The top five cities were Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Nanjing. Rankings are based on a

7 weighted average of the percentile rank of indicators for the city in the past six months. Chart 11 showed the average NEI city rankings between May 2018 and November The top five cities were Beijing, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen.

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9 For further information please contact: Mastercard Mr. Wu Huanyu, Director, Communications Tel: Caixin Insight Group Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist Tel: Ma Ling, Public Relations Tel: BBD Dr. Chen Qin, Chief Economist Tel: The Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time. About Caixin Caixin Media is China's leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visitwww.caixin.com. About Mastercard Mastercard (NYSE: MA), is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. Mastercard s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.

10 About BBD (Business Big Data) BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visit