Strategy development is about asking and answering four questions:

Transcription

1 Context Analysis: A comprehensive approach to environmental scanning and organizational assessment Working Paper Herbert A. Marlowe, Jr. February 12, 2012 Introduction Strategy development is about asking and answering four questions: Where are we now? Where could we go from here? Where do we want to go from here? How do we get there? Context analysis is a strategy planning technology that answers the strategic questions of where are we now and which directions could we go. It does so by collecting and integrating three types of data in order to prepare and support policy-makers as they make the decision, where do we want to go. One type of data is quantitative data consisting of empirical data, such as community demographics, economic data, public health indices and others, which describes the county from a hard data perspective. Then there is qualitative data which is self-report and perceptual data which addresses community values, image, reputation and opinion. Qualitative data is collected from three perspectives. One is the self-report of county residents as to what they value, i.e. believe is important and what their concerns are. A second is the perception by key stakeholders of the community s and organizational strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. The third is the identification of assumptions that key stakeholders are making about the future both in community and organizational terms. What assumptions are being made and how good those assumptions are points to clarify. The failure to identify and challenge assumptions can lead to serious misjudgments down the line. Questions and answers covering all three of these perspectives help address the most fundamental strategic question of all, what type of community and local government do we want? The third form of data is comparative data which consists of benchmark and trend data. Benchmarking is an assessment of your county and organization against key indicators to determine how you are doing on selected variables compared to other communities and organizations. It is difficult to understand anything, much less a complex county, without some context of how others are performing. Similarly, to understand where you are you also have to look at yourself in time, so trend data about where you have been and what path you are on is significant data. From a strategic planning perspective, answers to the strategic questions of where we are now and what we could become, lay the foundation for asking and answering the key strategic question of 1 P a g e

2 what we want. Within the realistic choices that we have, what do we want? This is a critical question to ask because some communities may not want certain industries or business sectors, may not want certain development patterns, or may not want certain services or experiences. In sum, context analysis is a systematic and comprehensive approach to the strategic planning topics of environmental scanning and organizational assessment. It is distinguished by its broad and comprehensive use of expertise. It draws upon the expertise of residents to express their values, concerns and aspirations. It draws upon the expertise of community leaders, including BCC members, who are thinking long term about the organizations they are leading and how to ensure those organizations, prosper in the future. It draws upon the expertise of professionals, including county staff, to identify key trends and patterns in their field that could impact the community. It draws upon the expertise of professional planners who role is to prepare the community for the future. It draws upon the expertise of other communities who have faced and succeeded with similar challenges. It draws upon the expertise represented in a variety of data-bases which provide key data about the county. The traditional or classic strategic planning approach to this stage of strategic planning is to conduct a SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats). Context analysis can be considered a form of SWOT analysis, but in practice it is much more thorough and comprehensive. The techniques of context analysis were developed specifically for the local government context in which a range of local variables are particularly critical. The elements of context analysis are shown in figure 1. Each is discussed below. The analytical techniques of context analysis Empirical analysis. Empirical analysis is a review and integration of existing hard data. This can include: Community demographics Community economic data and socio-economic characteristics including market data, employment, real estate values and trends, household income, business sectors, land use patterns and projections Organizational finance and budget data, including capital improvement needs and budgets, indebtedness, bond rating Organizational staffing data turnover rates, salary levels, sick leave rates, morale or job satisfaction data, climate and culture data Community educational statistics such as graduation rates, school rating scores, student population trends, school readiness Community mobility data such as commute times, congestion patterns, use of public transit Community environmental data including such variables as water use rates, environmentally sensitive land use trends, long term water supply projections, air quality. Community public health data 2 P a g e

3 Qualitative data As noted in the introduction, qualitative data covers three data types: values and concerns, SWOT perceptions and future assumptions. Each of these is described in the following. Values, Concerns and Aspirations The rationale for seeking to understand community values, concerns and aspirations in a strategic planning process is that it is a window into how people define their self-interests and what they are willing to invest in as citizens. In that sense values, concerns and aspirations are the most foundational topics one can seek to understand in developing consensual vision, strategic direction and public policy. An individual s understanding of a public policy issue may be substantive or superficial and most citizens have little time to develop substantive understanding on more than one or two topics if that. Surveys that ask for positive or negative positions on public policy issues or organizational practices therefore are of little value in that additional information, a re-framing of how the issue is presented, or a single experience may substantively shift the response. What people are expert in however are their own values, concerns and aspirations. When those are well-understood and broadly shared by the populace, a viable public policy or strategic direction can be formulated. When strategic direction is informed and shaped by these most basic variables, then it is likely to be supported. The research on values is extensive. The consistent finding is that people everywhere share a cluster of core values (with differing emphases among specific values). There are a number of models of these values. For the purposes of context analysis at a local government level, the model developed by Haidt i works well, specifically since he research is focused in part on how these values are related to public policy issues. The following are Haidt s ii presentation of these values, modified by the author for the context of local government. 1) Care. This value refers to the emphasis placed on feeling (and disliking) the pain of others. It underlies virtues of kindness, gentleness, and nurturance. 2) Fairness. This value is associated with ideas of justice, rights, and autonomy. 3) Liberty. This value is about the feelings of reactance and resentment people feel toward those who dominate them and restrict their liberty. Its intuitions are often in tension with those of the authority foundation. The hatred of bullies and dominators motivates people to come together, in solidarity, to oppose or take down the oppressor. 4) Loyalty. This value is related to our long human history as tribal creatures. It underlies virtues of patriotism and self-sacrifice for the group. It is active anytime people feel that it's "one for all, and all for one." 3 P a g e

4 5) Order. This foundation was shaped by our long human history of hierarchical social interactions. It underlies virtues of leadership and followership, including deference to legitimate authority and respect for traditions. 6) Honor & Virtue: This value was shaped by the human thinking on what is good, valuable, noble, moral, superior. It underlies notions of striving to live an uplifting, honorable, noble, contributing, ethical life, a life in which you respect yourself and are respected. Haidt iii explains how values, or what he terms moral intuitions are key to strategic thinking and strategy development. He says: moral intuitions come first, strategic reasoning second. Moral intuitions arise automatically and almost instantaneously, long before reasoning has a chance to get started, and those first intuitions tend to drive our later reasoning. If you think that moral (or strategic) reasoning is something we do to figure out the truth, you ll be constantly frustrated by how foolish, biased, and illogical people become when they disagree with you. But if you think about. reasoning as a skill we humans evolved to further our social agendas to justify our own actions and to defend the teams we belong to then things will make a lot more sense. Keep your eye on the intuitions, and don t take people s. arguments at face value. They re mostly post-hoc constructions made up on the fly, crafted to advance one or more strategic objectives. The focus on concerns and aspirations are self-evident. In these analyses an understanding of the concerns and aspirations of residents, both in depth and scope, is sought. An understanding of concerns and aspirations helps inform strategic priorities. Perceptions. Perceptions, right or wrong, accurate or inaccurate, are a reality in the public sector. Therefore it is important to understand how the local government is perceived. What is of particular value are the perceptions of the more fully informed segments of the community, most significantly those who interact with the local government on some regular or intermittent basis. Those persons are more likely to have sustained interactions or interactions across multiple events which balance out either the really great day or really bad day that can bias persons who interact rarely with the governmental body. Assumptions Errors in decision-making, at personal, corporate or community levels, can often be tracked back to erroneous assumptions. Sometimes these assumptions are unexamined, sometimes they are made on best available data. There are few, if any, assumptions that rise to the level of guarantee. Rather they should be considered as probabilities. In the process of strategy development, the analysis of assumptions consists of a three step process. First is the gathering of assumptions about the future that are held by key stakeholders. The second is the testing of those assumptions against existing data to assess degree of probability or range of likelihood. The last is a testing of the assumptions (with 4 P a g e

5 associated probability data) with a group of local content experts to either affirm or modify the probability ratings. Qualitative Data: Sample Interview or Survey Questions Illustrated below are some of the interview or survey questions that may be asked to obtain values, perception or assumption data. Listed are six value categories that encompass most values. You have 120 points. Distribute these points across the six categories according to how important that value is to you. If they are all equally valuable, assigned 20 points to each value. How is your organization viewed in your community? What perceptions about it do you consider out-dated or erroneous? What perceptions are fully or partially accurate? How do people in this community view Hillsborough County Government? What words would they use to describe it? What assumptions about the future of Hillsborough County are good enough to base future planning on? Comparative Data Comparative data is comprised of two elements. One is benchmarking against other desirable communities and county governments. The other is trend analysis. In benchmarking analysis one is seeking to understand how other communities and governments are addressing issues similar to those of Hillsborough County in a successful manner. Benchmarking at the operational level can occur on a wide number of measures. At the strategic level however a more qualitative analysis is occurring. The analysis asks: What goals are these benchmarked entities pursuing? This can be framed as what problems are they trying to solve, what community needs and priorities are they responding to, what vision are they pursuing? What broad strategies are they enacting? This can be framed as structures such as publicprivate partnerships, public management networks or alternative governance approaches. Or it can be framed as what approaches to financing, staffing and technology in service delivery are they taking. What trend lines are they impacting? This data informs as to their success. Is neighborhood crime down or new business start-ups rising are example of major trends which help determine if the benchmarked organization is being effective. What trends are positive for your organization or community? What trends are negative? What past trends are changing? In trend analysis an understanding of the major trends likely to impact the county is sought. These trends fall into the categories of local trends such as demographics or economic and finance and 5 P a g e

6 external trends such as technology or industry shifts. Both internal and external trends enable the imaging of various future scenarios that could occur in the county. i Haidt, J. The righteous mind. ii Ibid. iii Haidt, J. The righteous mind. 6 P a g e