150Intr Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government New M4 Project Magor to Castleton WelTAG Appraisal Report Stage 1 DRAFT 3 WORKI

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1 150Intr Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government WelTAG Appraisal Report Stage 1 DRAFT 3 WORKING DOCUMENT 1

2 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government WelTAG Appraisal Report Stage 1 Stage 1 January 2010 This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of our client. It is not intended for and should not be relied upon by any third party and no responsibility is undertaken to any third party 4 Pierhead Street, Capital Waterside, Cardiff CF10 4QP Tel +44 (0) Fax +44 (0) Job number

3 Document Verification Page 1 of 1 Job title Job number Document title WelTAG Appraisal Report Stage 1 File reference Document ref Revision Date Filename 0014WelTAG Appraisal Report Appraisal Summary Tables Stage 1.doc Draft 1 02/06/09 Description First draft Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Stephen Bussell / Jessica Jones Signature Stuart Watkins Dan Saville Draft 3 15/01/10 Filename 0006Report WelTAG Draft Appraisal Report Stage 1 Draft 3.doc Description Issued as Draft 3 (Draft 2 issued with TPO1 TPO10) Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Stephen Bussell / Jessica Jones Signature Stuart Watkins Dan Saville Filename Description Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Signature Filename Description Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Signature Issue Document Verification with Document (ALSO SEE )\WELTAG STAGE 1\STAGE 1 REPORT, INCORPORATING REVISED TPOS\0006REPORT WELTAG DRAFT 3

4 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government WelTAG Appraisal Report Stage 1 Contents Page 1 Introduction Background WelTAG Appraisal Guidance Significance of Impact Distribution Purpose of this Report 2 2 Planning Stage Transport Problems Transport Planning Objectives for the New M Context for an Alternative Approach Revised Transport Planning Objectives 5 3 Stage 1 Appraisal Stage 1 Appraisal Appraisal Summary Tables Stage 1 Results 8 4 Summary 9 Appendices Appendix A Transport Options Appendix B Appraisal Summary Tables Appendix C Environmental Constraints (ALSO SEE )\WELTAG STAGE 1\STAGE 1 REPORT, INCORPORATING REVISED TPOS\0006REPORT WELTAG DRAFT 4

5 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government WelTAG Appraisal Report Stage 1 1 Introduction 1.1 Background In November 2004, People, Places, Futures The Wales Spatial Plan was published. It included the intention to: increase the transport capacity of the corridors and gateways to Europe and beyond. This will include capacity enhancements on the M4 and A465 corridors through the Trunk Road Forward Programme as well as development of routes from Cardiff International Airport. In December 2004, the Minister for Economic Development and Transport reported on the outcome of his review of transport programmes, which he had undertaken to ensure a good strategic fit with Wales: A Better Country and the Wales Spatial Plan. One of the conclusions of the review was that additional capacity was required on the M4 motorway in South East Wales, in order to reduce congestion, improve resilience and remove an obstacle to greater prosperity along the whole corridor through to Swansea and West Wales. In addition to widening the motorway north of Cardiff, the Minister announced proposals to develop a New M4 south of Newport between Magor and Castleton. At the same time, it was announced that the existing route could include priority measures for public transport and multiple occupancy vehicles. This meant that the M4 Relief Road scheme was renamed as the and advanced from the On Hold category into Phase 2 of the Trunk Road Forward Programme, i.e. schemes that could start on site by 2010, subject to the satisfactory completion of statutory procedures and availability of finance. 1.2 WelTAG Appraisal Guidance WelTAG was formally published by the Welsh Assembly Government in June Paragraph of WelTAG states that the guidance, has been developed by the Welsh Assembly Government with the intention that it is applied to all transport strategies, plans and schemes being promoted or requiring funding from the Welsh Assembly Government. WelTAG has two primary purposes: To assist in the development of proposals enabling the most appropriate scheme to be identified and progressed one that is focused on objectives, maximises the benefits and minimises negative impacts; and To allow the comparison of competing schemes on a like-for-like basis, so that decisionmakers can make funding decisions. Paragraph of WelTAG sets out the structure of the WelTAG process, which comprises the following stages: A planning stage, which includes the problem and opportunity identification, proposal rationale, objective setting, possible solution identification and siting, option development and testing; A two stage appraisal process, with Stage 1 largely comprising a qualitative assessment and Stage 2 comprising a more detailed quantitative assessment; A post appraisal stage which involves on-going monitoring or performance and evaluation/value for money assessment; and Participation, including public consultation, which occurs at several stages in the planning process. Page 1 5

6 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government WelTAG Appraisal Report Stage 1 WelTAG aims to ensure that transport proposals contribute to the wider policy objectives for Wales. Three pillars of sustainability, known as Welsh Impact Areas, underlie policy in Wales. These are: Economy: this reflects the importance of a strong and developing economy for Wales; Environment: this reflects both the legal requirements and desire to protect and enhance the condition of the built and natural environment; and Society: this reflects the desire to address issues of social exclusion and to promote social justice and a high quality of life for Welsh people. 1.3 Significance of Impact Following each impact appraisal for both Stages 1 and 2, WelTAG recommends that the significance of impact for each criterion is assessed using a seven point scale detailed in Paragraph of the guidance. This scale includes the following assessment criteria: Large beneficial (+++); Moderate beneficial (++); Slight beneficial (+); Neutral (0); Slight adverse (-); Moderate adverse (--); Large adverse (---). The assessment of impact on each of the Welsh Impact Areas should be provided in the ASTs at both Stages 1 and Distribution WelTAG also requires, in Paragraph 3.5.1, that the distribution of impacts is carefully considered. This part of the assessment refers to how impacts might be distributed geographically and how they might affect different groups in society 1.5 Purpose of this Report This report summarises the study to date and describes the results of the draft Stage 1 appraisal. Draft Appraisal Summary Tables (ASTs) are provided for each of the transport options assessed at Stage 1. Page 2 6

7 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government WelTAG Appraisal Report Stage 1 2 Planning Stage A Vision for the transport system in South East Wales has been developed: To provide, as part of a wider integrated transport strategy for South East Wales, enhanced capacity and resilience on the transport corridor between Magor and Castleton. The strategic objectives of the project were outlined for the public in a brochure distributed in April 2006, prior to public information exhibitions. Social: to deliver enhanced accessibility to services and employment opportunities for people, whilst retaining a choice for road users. Economic: to deliver a more efficient transport capability for road traffic on the primary economic gateway to South Wales, to facilitate growth in regional and national prosperity. Environmental: to prevent, reduce and where practicable offset any significant adverse effects on environmental receptors. As part of the, a WelTAG Planning Stage Workshop, held on 24 October 2007, reached a common understanding of problems with transport in south east Wales. 2.1 Transport Problems The Planning Stage Workshop in October 2007 identified the transport problems listed in Table 2/1 below: Table 2/1: Problems with the Transport System in South East Wales Problems P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12 P13 P14 Definition There is a lack of resilience* in the road network around Newport. There is a mismatch between demand and available capacity on the motorway around Newport. Problem P1 and P2 will worsen over time. The existing transport system acts as a constraint to economic growth. There will be capacity restrictions during essential major maintenance on the existing M4 within the next 5-10 years. HGVs do not operate efficiently on the motorway around Newport. There is an air pollution problem associated with the motorway around Newport. Traffic congestion on the M4 around Newport contributes to emission of greenhouse gases. The transport system is at increasing risk from extreme weather events. There is an environmental noise problem associated with the motorway around Newport. The existing transportation system does not meet the Wales Spatial Plan aspirations as a gateway to Wales. The existing transportation system does not meet the aspirations of the local development plans. The current accident rate on the existing M4 is higher than average. The existing M4 is a barrier to intra-regional travel. Page 3 7

8 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government WelTAG Appraisal Report Stage 1 * Resilience is the ability of a network to cope with sudden changes in demand or operation, eg traffic throughput could be maintained during periods of temporary disruption. 2.2 Transport Planning Objectives for the New M4 A series of Transport Planning Objectives were also agreed at the Workshop in order to address the problems and to provide the optimum level of service for transport provision in south east Wales. These objectives are listed in Table 2/2 below: Table 2/2: Transport Planning Objectives for the Transport Systems within South East New M4 Project, October 2007 Objectives TPO 1 TPO 2 TPO 3 TPO 4 Definition (Note: The timing of these objectives apply from the date of the workshop October 2007) To achieve traffic demand on the motorway around Newport that does not exceed 85% of its theoretical capacity within 10 years. To reduce the number of incidents per week on the motorway around Newport to be comparable with the average for similar roads in Wales within 10 years. To increase the journey time reliability of freight movements on the motorway around Newport within 10 years. To provide sufficient network flexibility to undertake essential major maintenance on the motorway around Newport without causing unacceptable disruption within 10 years. TPO 5 To reduce air quality pollution around Newport by TPO 6 To reduce the number of people subjected to high noise levels by TPO 7 TPO 8 TPO 9 TPO 10 To reduce greenhouse gas emissions per vehicle and/or person kilometre within 10 years. To reduce the probability of disruption by extreme weather events within 10 years. To reduce the accident rate on the motorway around Newport to be comparable with similar roads in Wales within 10 years. To increase accessibility to jobs within 30 minutes travel time by car and 60 minutes travel time by public transport within 10 years. 2.3 Context for an Alternative Approach As a result of the WelTAG Planning Stage and other analytical work, the provision of the New M4 motorway was shown to be compatible with all the transport planning objectives that had been set for the. The provision of the New M4 motorway is thus considered to be the optimum solution to provide highway capacity to fully meet future traffic demand along the east/west corridor in south east Wales. However, sufficient funding to cover the cost of providing the New M4 motorway is not likely to be available in the immediate future within current and projected Welsh Assembly expenditure budgets, particularly in the context of the current economic climate. This means that the optimum level of service is unlikely to be achieved in the timescale set for the. It has thus become necessary to prepare revised transport planning objectives that aim to provide a level of service that is compatible with the framework set out in the National Transport Plan for transport provision in south east Wales. Page 4 8

9 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government WelTAG Appraisal Report Stage Revised Transport Planning Objectives It has thus become necessary to prepare revised Transport Planning Objectives (TPOs) that aim to provide a level of service that is compatible with the framework set out in the National Transport Plan for transport provision in south east Wales. The revised TPOs shown in Table 2/3 have been drawn up following internal study team discussions. These aim to provide a framework within which to test the relative effectiveness of a series of possible measures that follow themes, such as: Public transport; Increasing the capacity on the motorway; Improving network resilience and network choice; and Environmental improvement/mitigation. Table 2/3: Transport Planning Objectives for Improving Corridor Efficiency, April 2009 Objectives TPO 1 TPO 2 TPO 3 TPO 4 TPO 5 TPO 6 TPO 7 TPO 8 TPO 9 TPO 10 TPO 11 TPO 12 Definition To improve connectivity within Wales and Internationally along the east-west strategic corridor in South Wales. To discourage the use of the motorway around Newport as a local distributor road. To make better use of the existing highway asset. To increase journey time reliability. To increase travel choice for all. To improve accessibility to key centres and services. To improve the transport network management around Newport. To improve travel safety on the transport network around Newport. To improve air quality around Newport. To reduce the number of people subjected to high noise levels. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions per vehicle and/or person kilometre. To enhance the traveller experience through the gateway to South Wales. At this stage there has been no consultation with stakeholders and no attempt has thus been made to make the revised TPOs SMART. The correlation between the revised TPOs and the identified problems is set out in Table 2/4. This shows that all problems are addressed, often by several of the objectives. Page 5 9

10 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government WelTAG Appraisal Report Stage 1 Table 2/4: Correlation between Revised Transport Planning Objectives and Problems with the Transport System in South East Wales Problems Objectives P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12 P13 P14 TPO 1 TPO 2 TPO 3 TPO 4 TPO 5 TPO 6 TPO 7 TPO 8 TPO 9 TPO 10 TPO 11 TPO 12 Page 6 10

11 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government WelTAG Appraisal Report Stage 1 3 Stage 1 Appraisal Paragraph of the WelTAG guidance states that the Stage 1 appraisal is intended to screen and test options against the TPOs and the Welsh Impact Areas of Economy, Environment and Society, as well as more detailed tests for deliverability, risks and the degree of support from the public and other stakeholders. In accordance with WelTAG, the Stage 1 appraisal has comprised a qualitative review of each of the transport options 3.1 Stage 1 Appraisal Three options have been reviewed in Stage 1: Provision of the New M4 motorway; 4-lane on-line widening of the existing M4 motorway; and Corridor efficiency improvements. A more detailed description of each transport option and their elements is provided below and illustrated on Figures A1 A3 in Appendix A New M4 The New M4 comprises the construction of a new a new three lane motorway between Junctions 23 and 29 and a new crossing of the River Usk south of Newport. The New M4 also includes a new junction on the M48 near Caldicot to relieve traffic on the B4245; reclassification of the existing M4 between Junction 29 and Junction 23; environmental design including landscaping associated with the New M4 Motorway; and utilities diversions necessary to construct the New M4 Motorway On-line Widening The scheme comprises on-line widening of the existing M4 motorway between Junctions 24 and 29 to give additional capacity to a design standard of 100kph (60 mph). Between Junctions and 25A - 24 four lanes and a continuous hardshoulder would be provided in each direction. As part of the motorway widening a new tunnel bore would be constructed adjacent to the existing Brynglas Tunnels. The new tunnel would accommodate one carriageway of the motorway and the two existing tunnels would be used in combination to accommodate the remaining carriageway. The new arrangement of tunnels would allow three lanes plus a hardshoulder to be provided in each direction between Junctions 26 and 25A. Existing bridge structures would be upgraded and new retaining walls and bridges constructed to suit the widened motorway. Environmental mitigation measures would also be provided Corridor Efficiency Improvements Corridor efficiency improvements involve making better use of existing infrastructure and services with targeted capacity improvements and demand management measures. A package of measures has been put forward with considerable scope to achieve, at the very least, modest incremental improvements to operating conditions within the M4 transportation corridor. The package of corridor efficiency measures includes: 1. Incremental Widening between Junctions 29 and 28; 2. Incremental Widening between Junctions 27 and 26; 3. Increased length of southbound merge at Junction 29A; 4. Ramp metering of southbound merge at Junction 29A; 5. At-grade improvement to the A48 Southern Distributor Road (SDR); 6. Upgrade to Steelworks Access Road (Magor to Queensway Meadows); Page 7 11

12 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government WelTAG Appraisal Report Stage 1 7. Improvement to B4245 junction west of Magor; 8. Improvement to Junction 28; 9. Closure of Junction 27; 10. Removal of east facing slip roads and widening of west facing slip roads at Junction 26; 11. Removal of east facing slip roads at Junction 25; 12. Lane restriction with enforcement using ITS; 13. Improved incident and queue detection using ITS; 14. Traffic monitoring for incident management using ITS; 15. Update to Controlled Motorway; 16. Improved driver information; 17. Park & Ride at Severn Tunnel Junction; 18. Park & Ride at Magor; 19. Park & Ride at Llanwern; 20. Park & Ride at Rogerstone; 21. Park & Ride at Coedkernew; 22. Reduction in Traffic Noise; 23. East/West Bus Rapid Transit (BRT); 24. Re-branding of driver experience on motorway; 25. Park and Ride/Parkway Railway Station at St. Mellons (proposal by third party included for consideration); 26. Corporation Road link. Further details on the package of measures are provided in the Corridor Efficiency Improvements Report Appraisal Summary Tables The primary aim of the Stage 1 appraisal is to filter and reduce the number of options in order to allow a more detailed assessment of options in Stage 2. It should be noted that this preliminary review has been undertaken on the basis of the qualitative information that is currently available. A draft Appraisal Summary Table (AST) for each transport option has been prepared using the seven point scale of impact significance set out in Paragraph of WelTAG. Copies of the ASTs follow in Appendix B and are supported by plans illustrating environmental constraints for each transport option in Appendix C. 3.3 Stage 1 Results The Stage 1 appraisal illustrates that the New M4 performs strongly against the revised TPOs for the project. Based on the transport appraisal, the scheme would afford beneficial effects for all TPOs with the exception on TPO 5 on travel choice, where the effects are considered to be neutral. In particular, the New M4 would provide large benefits in transport safety, improving connectivity, journey time reliability and network management. The New M4 would also offer large beneficial effects in terms of the TEE, EALI, greenhouse gas emissions and transport safety. However, there would be large adverse impacts on the 1 Corridor Efficiency Improvements Report Working Document, Arup, March 2009 Page 8 12

13 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government WelTAG Appraisal Report Stage 1 environmental impacts areas of landscape and townscape and biodiversity, as well as moderate adverse impacts on heritage and soils. Although the on-line widening scheme achieves moderate beneficial impacts for the TEE and EALI appraisal, the scheme performs least well overall against the TPOs and the Welsh impact area criteria. There would be large adverse effects in terms of TPO 2, which aims to discourage the use of the motorway around Newport as a local distributor road, as well as large adverse effects on landscape and townscape and soils. Similarly, there would be moderate adverse impacts on air quality, noise, biodiversity and heritage. The corridor efficiency measures contribute positively to all TPOs, particularly in terms of making better use of the existing highway asset (TPO 2) and increasing travel choice for all (TPO 5), but would have a neutral impact on transport safety. The economic benefits arising from the measures would be beneficial, with moderate beneficial results in the TEE and slight beneficial results in the EALI appraisal. There would be some adverse impacts in terms of biodiversity, heritage, landscape and townspace, but the package of measures is the only transport option not to score any large adverse impacts. 4 Summary The work to date, including the WelTAG Appraisal, has indicated that the provision of the New M4 motorway is well matched with the Transport Planning Objectives (TPOs) that had been set at the planning stage. However, the implementation of the New M4 motorway will be dependent upon the availability of funding. Therefore, affordability is an important issue both in terms of timescale and the amount of capital required. Funding to cover the cost of providing the New M4 motorway is not likely to be available in the immediate future within current and projected Welsh Assembly expenditure budgets, particularly in the context of the current economic climate. On-line widening has the same affordability issue as the M4, but this option does not produce the same level of transport economic benefits as the New M4. Where there is likely to be a period of time before the New M4 motorway could be realised, it may be prudent to consider an alternative (possibly interim) strategy. The corridor efficiency improvement option is compatible with such a strategy. It is aimed at utilising and/or improving existing transport infrastructure and services in order to alleviate problems and, in so doing, improve transport operational efficiency within the M4 transportation corridor. The appraisal has shown that the corridor efficiency improvement option makes a contribution to most objectives. It is seen to provide transport economic benefits, in particular for users of the motorway as a result of improved operating conditions. The cost of providing the improvements in this case are substantially less than either the provision of the New M4 or on-line widening of the existing motorway. This option also has the additional advantage that the measures could be effectively implemented in a phased manner in line with future budget allocation. In this respect, the improvement of Junction 28 would realise the greatest return in terms of benefit and should be considered as a top priority. In conclusion, the results of the Stage 1 appraisal indicate that the on-line widening scheme performs least well in terms of the WelTAG appraisal criteria and, as such, it is recommended that this option is eliminated. The New M4 performs strongly against the majority of the TPOs and the package of corridor efficiency measure contributes positively to most objectives. As a result, it is recommended that both the New M4 and the package of corridor efficiency measures be taken forward to the Stage 2 WelTAG assessment for detailed and quantitative assessment. Page 9 13

14 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government WelTAG Appraisal Report Stage 1 Page 10 14

15 Appendix A Transport Options 15

16 Transport and Strategic Regeneration Welsh Assembly Government WelTAG Appraisal Report Stage 1 Page A1 16

17 Page A1 17

18 18

19 19 Appendix B Appraisal Summary Tables

20 Page B1 20

21 Page B1 21

22 22

23 23 Appendix C Environmental Constraints

24 Page C1 24