Melissa McLaws Chris Bartels

Transcription

1 FMD and Risk Options analysis in a complex environment Melissa McLaws Chris Bartels

2 Objective Illustrate challenges we are facing to develop practical methods to help FMD endemic countries identify best package of control measures & be effective in monitoring Get input from Special Committee on Research and Development on how to move forward Approach for this afternoon: 1. Short ppt: mins 2. Exercises: 2 groups 3. Presentations/discussion from groups

3 FMD control Tried and true...find it fast and kill it quickly!! Stamping out has been applied successfully in many countries. Follow this recipe and FMD will be controlled Find and cull infected herds, and add 2 parts vaccination 1 part movement controls Stir well... A pinch of Surveillance Cook until done

4 BUT Limited resources Incl. vaccine, money for compensation Mixed incentives to control FMD Countries Stakeholders

5 These issues lead to the development of the PCP-FMD: FMD freedom may not be the immediate (or even longterm) goal for every country Maximise use of limited resources

6 Maximise use of limited resources 1. Start with understanding epidemiology of FMD, and what the impact is 2. Develop risk-based strategic plan to mitigate the risks 3. Ongoing monitoring to demonstrate effectiveness and adjust to improve or address new risks

7 Start with understanding epidemiology of FMD, and what the impact is... Situation analysis and preliminary risk analysis Value chain approach Detailed risk & value chain analysis to identify risk reduction options Option appraisal and decision making Market/ dealer $$ $$ $$ $$ $$ $$ Dairy farm Milk collection center Milk truck Dairy processing plant Supermarket Home

8 Basis of a value chain is the exchange of products for money/incentives Input or Service $ Towards finished product Middlemen, transport, traders Fresh Product $ Processed Product Producer Processor Marketers Middlemen, financial services $ Processed Product Money from consumer to producer $ Products sold to consumers with particular demands who do very little home processing

9 Networks and linkages in value chains provide opportunities for transmission of disease Middlemen, transport, traders Providers of inputs and services Input or Service $ Fresh Product $ Processed Product Producer Processor Marketers Middlemen, financial services $ Processed Product $ Products sold to consumers with particular demands who do very little home processing

10 Conceptual Framework Animal diseases are spread by movements of input materials, animals and livestock products and also by fomites, people, equipment and transport These movements are driven and controlled by people The use of value chain analysis with risk analysis allows identification of risk hotspots in the livestock sector These risk hotspots should then be examined to determine how control measures could then be targeted at them 10

11 Using Value Chains to Identify Risk Hotspots Risk hotspots: points in the value chain where the combined effect of the probability of FMD entry/spread and the consequences of FMD entry/spread are greatest. 1. Within each point in the value chain: consider whether FMD virus could (probability) Enter, Be noticed, Survive and be carried on from that point to infect other points (in the chain and/or other value chains) AND 2. Assess impact of FMD infection at that point on stakeholders (consequences)

12 Risk What are the chances unfavourable outcome will happen = probability, likelihood What will be the outcome if it happens = consequences Example: Premises/husbandry practises may be considered High Risk if 1. They are associated with a high incidence of FMD (high probability) 2. They are located in an area usually FMD free (high consequences)

13 Maximise use of limited resources 1. Start with understanding epidemiology of FMD, and what the impact is 2. Develop risk-based strategic plan to mitigate the risks 3. Ongoing monitoring to demonstrate effectiveness and adjust to improve or address new risks

14 Develop risk-based strategic plan to mitigate the risks Template has been developed and tested in 3 countries 6 chapters Very Useful tool for communication 1. Situation analysis 2. Benefits of FMD Control 3. Goal, objectives, tactics and activities 4. Monitoring and evaluation 5. Operational plan 6. Technical assistance

15 Risk-Based Strategic Plan Chapter 3: The Strategy Situation analysis Benefits of FMD Control Goal, objectives, tactics and activities Monitoring and evaluation Goal Strategic objective Component objectives PCP stage 1: Outcome years horizon National policy on livestock and livelihoods 3-5 years horizon Progress in FMD control 1-3 years horizon Related to identified risks and improving FMD management Operational plan Technical assistance Tactics Activities 1-3 years Related to each component objective Actions needed under each of the strategies

16 Exercises today: 2 groups: 1. Choose 1-2 risk-hotspots in the context of Israel Sketch associated value chain(s) Identify stakeholders, how is each impacted by FMD? Define Component Objective that could be included in a RBSP to mitigate the defined risk Identify tactics to Component Objective For each tactic: consider is it likely to be effective? Is it feasible? Discussion: gaps in knowledge, what tools can be used to identify the most (cost)-effective package of control measures?

17 Some of the outputs produced by the group: Pakistan

18 Some of the outputs produced by the group: Yemen

19 Some of the outputs produced by the group: China

20 Example Strategic Objective Achieving Stage 3 in 2015 Component Objectives 1. reduce FMD transmission at the time of seasonal migration from X to Y in the spring of each year 2.. reduce FMD transmission to new areas through the largest markets 3.. establish monitoring system for FMDV incidence 1.1 Compulsory Vx of 100% of young stock that will migrate, including booster dose 1.2 awareness campaign to owners in the areas of how to minimize the risk 1.3 strengthen the VS capacity in Stakeholder consultation Tactics Activity 1.1.1: Identification of all locations with which have young stock that will migrate on this route 4 months prior to migration (by Nov each year), and estimate number of head Activity 1.1.2: Distribution of sufficient vaccines to local vet office by December Activity 1.1.3: vet to administer vaccine in Jan and Feb Activity 1.2.1: idenfication of producers involved in the migration Activity 1.2.2: hold workshop to identify key messages for awareness campaign Activity 1.2.3: produce and distribute communication tools Activity Activities Direct relation between Risks identified and Objectives, tactics and Activities defined

21 Maximise use of limited resources 1. Start with understanding epidemiology of FMD, and what the impact is 2. Develop risk-based strategic plan to mitigate the risks 3. Ongoing monitoring to demonstrate effectiveness and adjust to improve or address new risks

22 Risk-Based Strategic Plan Situation Analysis 1. Goal of FMD control 2. Strategic Objective Capacity building and training Additional Research 7. Monitoring & Evaluation 6. Planning/ budget/resources 5. Activities 3. Component objectives 4. Tactics Organisation and stakeholders National government Ministry of Agriculture Veterinary Authority FMD Task Force Field staff Private vets Technical Assistance Standard Operating Procedures

23 Chapter 4: Monitoring and Evaluation Monitoring: ongoing data collection Are activities being implemented as planned? What are the results of the activities? Evaluation: periodic assessment (every 1-3 years) Assesses strategic issues Relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, sustainability

24 Monitoring: ongoing data collection Are activities being implemented as planned? Implementation What are the results of the activities? Impact Implementation: indicators and targets Impact: indicators and targets Monitoring System

25 Indicators and targets Indicators unit of measurement Eg proportion, count... Target what are the expected results? What do you want to achieve? Quantitative Measurable, through records, surveys... Qualitative Opinions, judgements, attitudes Through interviews, stakeholder meetings

26 Risk-Based Strategic Plan Chapter 4: Monitoring and Evaluation PCP-FMD Stage 2.1 Stage 3.1 Situation analysis Indicators Target Benefits of FMD Control Strategic objective Means of verification Goal, objectives, tactics and activities Monitoring and evaluation Operational plan Component objectives Tactics Implementation Impact Indicators Target Means of verification Indicators Targets Means of Verification Indicators Technical assistance Activities Targets Means of Verification Implementation

27 Exercises today: 2 groups: 2. Turkey s draft RBSP has 9 component objectives: What indicators or parameters should be measured to decide if each component objective has been met? What indicators can be applied to monitor the implementation and impact of tactics? Are the data available? How often should the measurement be taken? What should trigger the alarm for action to be taken? Discussion: could some of these indicators be standardized to compare FMD situation across region/globally?

28 Reasons for non-compliance goes beyond cost-benefit Livestock not important to owner (eg. owns one pig only) Owner not informed about control options Owner lose money if control measure implemented (eg via movement restrictions) Takes time to implement measure No trust in control measure or vet services (eg vaccination) Control measure results in loss of social interaction (eg going to market) No resources to invest in control measure Views doing something new as too risky Does not view disease as a problem

29 Assignment 5. Complete the table for each proposed control measure : Measure: movement restrictions for 1 km radius around infected places Value chain actor Dealer Likely impact of FMD on stakeholder (high, med, low) Likely impact of stakeholder on FMD entry/spread in value chain (high, med, low) Likely impact of control measure on stakeholder (high, med, low) Likely compliance of stakeholder with control measure Small holder...

30 Why will a Strategic Plan improve FMD control? Developing the plan ensures: Analysis of risks Consideration of best use of limited resources to mitigate the risks Once written, the plan is a valuable communication tool: Within the Veterinary Services Private stakeholders Regional and international communities Donors for technical assistance Monitoring and Evaluation during implementation: continuous improvement in Efficiency of use of resources Demonstrate achievements