1. Introduction Definitions 4. -Turnover 4

Transcription

1 Aprl

2 ndex 1. ntroducton 3 2. Defntons 4 -Turnover 4 3. Survey scope Populaton scope Tme scope Base perod Perodo de referenca Geographcal scope 5 4. Features of the statstcal process Methodology of data collecton Features of the admnstratve source Monthly VAT declaratons of the large companes Observaton unts Sample desgn 7 5. Formulaton of the ndces Basc ndces Weghtngs General ndex Busness Turnover ndex adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects ndces adjusted for calendar effects 6.2 ndces adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects Annex : Lnks to the dfferent operatons of whch BT s made up 14 2

3 1. ntroducton The man purpose of the Busness Turnover ndex (BT) s measurng the monthly evoluton of the turnover for the followng non-fnancal market sectors jontly: Extractve and Manufacturng ndustres, Electrcal energy and water supply, sewerage and waste management, Trade and Non-fnancal market servces. The BT was dctated by the Hgh Councl on Statstcs n the meetng of the Permanent Comsson hold on 26th June 2013, and t follows the gudelnes of the Natonal Statstcal Plan for the analyss and synthess statstcs and for the statstcs that use admnstratve records, snce ths new statstc ntroduced shows features of both knds of prevous statstcs. The NE monthly dssemnates three short-term statstcs that measure, separately, the evoluton of the turnover ndces n the quarryng and manufacturng ndustres (ndustral Turnover ndces: T), n the servces sector (Servce Sector Actvty ndcators: SSA) and n the Retal Trade (Retal Trade ndces: RT). These three shortterm statstcs are regulated by Regulaton (EC) No 1165/98 of the European Councl, dated on 19th May 1998, about the short-term statstcs (STS), and modfed by Regulaton (EC) No 1158/2005 of the European Parlament and Councl, dated on 6th July The objectve of ths Regulaton s the creaton of a common framework for the producton of communty statstcs regardng the short-term evoluton of the economc cycle On the other sde, the Spansh Tax Agency prepares monthly a report on Sales, Employment and Salares n Large Companes. Regardng Sales, data are obtaned from monthly self-settlement of VAT carred out by Large Companes (VAT LG) (Forms 303 and 322). n order to calculate the BT, the nformaton of these three surveys already mentoned s complemented wth the data provded by the Spansh Tax Agency for the rest of the sectors. Although, accordng to the STS 1 Regulaton, obtanng an aggregate ndcator for all economc sectors s not compulsory, the advantages of ths ndcator, as compared wth ts low-cost obtenton, led us to elaborate t, snce the current stuaton makes essental to have avalable data to forecast or detect, as soon as possble, any turn or change n economc trends. Thus, users are offered an only short-term statstc. By usng t, they can monthly montor most of the market actvty and carry out comparatve analyses between sectors. Actvtes ncluded n BT represent, accordng to the provsonal forecasts of the 2012 Spansh Natonal Accounts, 50.0% of the GDP at market prces (66.5% when excludng Publc Admnstratons and net Taxes on products). 1 STS stands for Short-Term Statstcs, term whch s used by Eurostat for defnng the Regulaton aplcable to short term statstcs: The STS Regulaton ( _legal_base). 3

4 2. Defntons - Turnover Conceptually, Turnover s the nvocng of a company, n monetary terms, due to the sale of ndustral goods and servces provded to thrd partes. Therefore, Turnover corresponds to the value of the amounts nvoced durng the reference month due to the sales of goods and servces provded, ncludng both ownaccount and sub-contract servces. t therefore ncludes the ncome from the sales of fnshed products, of sem-fnshed products, of sub-products, of waste and recovered materals, of packages and packagng and of merchandse (goods acqured for resale n the same state as that n whch they were acqured), as well as the ncome from the provson of servces related to the ordnary actvty of the establshment. From the defnton of turnover, we exclude VAT and other taxes on the operaton, as well as returns on sales. We should also exclude prce reductons, sales and appled dscounts, bearng n mnd that those granted to the clent after the sale, for example, at the end of the year, should not be consdered. Ths shall also not nclude those subsdes receved from the Publc Admnstratons and nsttutons of the European Unon. The value of turnover shall nclude all those amounts charged to the clent (transport, packagng...), even thought ths knd of servces are nvoced separately. From a practcal perspectve, the Spansh General Accountng Plan (PGC) (RD 1514/2007, 16th November) defnes the Total Net Turnover by usng the followng accountng tems: C700+C701+C702+C703+C704+C705-C706-C708-C709 where: C700. Sales of goods C701. Sales of fnshed products C702. Sales of sem-fnshed products C703. Sales of by-products and waste C704. Sales of contaners and packagng C705. Provsons of servces C706. Dscounts on prompt payment sales C708. Sales returns and other operatons C709. Sales rebates 4

5 3. Survey scope 3.1. Populaton scope The populaton scope of the Busness Turnover ndex (BT) s made up to the knd-ofactvty unts whose man actvty s ncluded wthn the followng sectons of the CNAE- 09: B Mnng and quarryng ndustres (except for sectons 07 and 09, whch are not relevant for the Spansh ndustry); C Manufacturng ndustry; D Electrcty, gas, steam and ar condtonng supply; E Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remedaton actvtes; G Trade; H Transportaton and storage; Accomodaton; J nformaton and communcaton; M 1 : Professonal, scentfc and techncal actvtes and N 2 : Admnstratve and support servce actvtes. Regardng actvtes n secton D and E, the only companes ncluded n the scope populaton are Large Companes, that s, for tax purposes, the natural or legal persons whose tradng volume has exceeded 6.01 mllon euros durng the prevous natural year, snce t s the only source of nformaton used for montorng the evoluton of these sectors. Accordng to data provded by the Annual ndustral Companes Survey, the percentage of turnover produced by the Large Companes n was 98% for secton D and 80% for secton E. 3.2 Tme scope Bass perod The bass perod for the Busness Turnover ndex (BT) s the year Reference perod Data of the Busness Turnover ndex (BT) are referred to each complete natural month Geographcal scope The geographcal scope of the Retal Trade ndex (RT) ncludes all the natonal terrtory. The geographcal scope of the ndustry Turnover ndex (T) and the Servces Sector Actvty ndcator (SSA) ncludes all the natonal terrtory except for Ceuta and Mellla. The geographcal scope for those actvtes n secton D and E (whch wll be exclusvely survelled by usng the VAT declaratons) s the natonal terrtory, except n the case of the terrtores excluded of the applcaton of the VAT (Canaras, Ceuta and Mellla) and those companes whch operate only wthn the terrtores subjected to the Basque Country and Navarra Publc Fnance Systems. 1 Wthout ncludng the followng actvtes: 70.1 Actvtes of head offces, 72 Scentfc research and development and 75 Veternary actvtes. 2 Wthout ncludng the followng actvtes: 77 Rental and leasng actvtes, 81.1 Combned facltes support actvtes and 81.3 Landscape servce actvtes. 5

6 4. Features of the statstcal process 4.1 Methodology of the collecton of data The ntal data requred by ths statstcal operaton comes from the ndces whch result of the NE surveys (T, SSA and RT) for Mnng and quarryng ndustres, Trade and Non-fnancal Market Servces. Regardng Electrcal energy and water supply, sewerage and waste management (D and E Sectons of the NACE 2009), the ntal data wll come from the monthly VAT declaratons of Large Companes. 4.2 Features of the admnstratve source. Monthly VAT declaratons of the large companes The observaton unts to whch prmary data are referred are the Large Companes, that s, for tax purposes, the natural or legal persons whose tradng volume has exceeded 6.01 mllon euros durng the prevous natural year. n order to determnate the tradng volume, the Artcle 121 of the Spansh VAT Law 37/1992 s appled. Companes meetng ths requrement can be found n the Census for Large Enterprses, whch varates every year. Large Enterprses fle the VAT declaratons by usng models 303 and 322. Legslaton about these models s found n the Order EHA/1033/2011, dated on 18th Aprl, whch amends Order EHA/3786/2008, dated on 29th December, whch enacts the model 303 for the self-settlement and the model 308 for the refund of the VAT: Sales equalzaton tax, secton 30 bs of the VAT Regulatons and occasonal taxpayers. Also t amends Annexes and of the Order ssued by the Mnstry of Economy and Fnance/3434/2007, dated 23 November, whch approves Form 322 (Monthly Selfsettlement: ndvdual Form) and Form 353 (Monthly Self-settlement: Aggregate Form), as well as other tax regulatons (BOE, 27 Aprl 2011). t s compulsory for Large Companes to fle these self-settlement models monthly, on the 20th of the followng month after the reference month (except for the months of August, when self-settlement s not fled, and January, when the deadlne s delayed untl the 30th snce t s fled the annual summary). Flng must be onlne. Fles related to sales, whose data wll be used as nput for calculatng an ndex of Value for the actvtes where ths source of nformaton s used, correspond to felds 1, 4, 7, 42 and 43 n model 303 and to felds 1, 4, 7, 51, 54, 35, 36 and 37 n model nformaton unts Ths three short-term surveys carred out by the NE are desgned n a way that they use, n each case, the approprate methodology to measure those varables requred by the Regulaton of short-term statstcs number 1165/98. Ths s the reason why the observaton unts are dfferent: establshments for the ndustral sector and companes for Trade and Servces. The ndustral Turnover ndces are monthly short-term statstcs regardng establshments whose man actvty s ncluded n sectons B (mnng and quarryng 6

7 ndustres) (except for sectons 07 and 09, whch are not relevant for the Spansh ndustry) and C (manufacturng ndustry) of the CNAE The Servce Sector Actvty ndcators are monthly short-term statstcs regardng companes whose man actvty s ncluded n sectons 45 (Mantenance and repar of motor vehcles), 46 (Wholesale trade) and sectons H (Transportaton), (Accommodaton and food servce actvtes), J (nformaton and communcaton), M (Professonal, scentfc and techncal actvtes) (wthout ncludng the followng actvtes: 70.1 Actvtes of head offces, 72 Scentfc research and development and 75. Veternary actvtes) and N (Admnstratve and Support Servce actvtes) (wthout ncludng the followng actvtes: 77 Rental and leasng actvtes, 81.1 Combned facltes support actvtes and 81.3 Landscape servce actvtes). Retal Trade ndces are monthly short-term statstcs regardng companes whose man actvty s ncluded n secton 47 (Retal trade). On the other sde, the observaton unts for actvtes n Sectons D (Electrcty, gas, steam and ar condtonng supply) and E (Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remedaton actvtes) are those Large Companes whch fle the monthly VAT declaraton. 4.4 Sample desgn Every operaton carred out by the NE: ndustral Turnover ndces (T), Servce Sector Actvty ndcators (SSA) and Retal Trade ndces (RT) has ts own sample desgn, whch can be accessed n the concernng methodology publshed n the NE Webste (lnks to ths documents have been ncluded n Annex ). Regardng the ndustral Turnover ndces, the sample s not probablstc, snce t s determned by the "cut-off" method. Ths sample covers the turnover produced by the establshments of the enterprses wth more than 50 employees. n some sectors, the establshments of the enterprses wth more than 20 employees are also ncluded. n turn, the samples of the Servce Sector Actvty ndcators and the Retal Trade ndces are probablstc: a stratfed samplng s carred out, by usng as stratfcaton varables the branch of actvty of the company; ts sze, n terms of number of workers, and the Autonomous Communty. The exhaustve stratum of the Servce Sector Actvty ndcators s composed by the companes larger than 200 workers, and the companes between 50 and 199 workers just n case they are mult-located n several Autonomous Communtes. Regardng the RT, the exhaustve stratum s composed by the companes larger than 50 workers. n both cases, n the rest of the stratums a sample s selected, and 25% of ths sample rotates every year n order to avod the nformant unts to get tred. Regardng the actvtes whch mne nformaton out of the tax regster, ths nformaton wll be compled by usng the total populaton of the Large Companes whch fle the monthly VAT declaraton (LC VAT). 5. Formulaton of the ndces The Busness Turnover ndex (BT) s a value ndex, that s, t measures the jont performance of the quanttes, qualtes and prces. The calculaton formula for the BT, bass, s the Laspeyres ndex, fxed base. 7

8 5.1 Basc ndces An "elementary aggregate" s the component wth the lowest level of aggregaton, to whch ndces are obtaned. The ndces of these aggregates are known as basc ndces. For calculatng ths BT, we consderate as "basc ndces" those aggregate ndces compled drectly out of the BT, SSA and RT surveys. n turn, for calculatng the ndces related to Power and water supply, sewerage and waste management, fscal nformaton must be used. The followng chart shows the "basc ndces", ncludng those actvtes regstered n CNAE-2009, and the survey (BT, RT, SSA) or admnstratve fle (LC VAT) out of whch the nformaton s gong to be obtaned. ELEMENTARY NDEX Sectons Source of CNAE-2009 the nformaton - Mnng, Quarryng and B and C BT Manufacturng - Electrcal energy and water supply D and E LC VAT - Trade G RT, SSA - Non fnancal servces H,, J, M 1 and N 2 SSA Regardng Electrcal energy and water supply, sewerage and waste management, elementary ndces are calculated by usng nformaton from the fle of the Monthly VAT declaratons of the Large Companes, accordng to the followng formulaton: The ndex for an "elementary aggregate" n January s: January 12 f m 1 f j j January m, 12 Where: January s the year ndex of the elementary aggregate "", n January 1 Wthout ncludng the followng actvtes: 70.1 Actvtes of head offces, 72 Scentfc research and development and 75 Veternary actvtes. 2 Wthout ncludng the followng actvtes: 77 Rental and leasng actvtes, 81.1 Combned facltes support actvtes and 81.3 Landscape servce actvtes. 8

9 f 12 m 1 January f j m, 12 s the value of sales recorded, n January, n the 303 or 322 Models of the "j" company, whch s part of the elementary aggregate "": Electrcal energy and water s the value, recorded n, of the average sales of the whole of the Large Companes "j" whch are part of the elementary aggregate "": Electrcal energy and water Snce the Large Companes Census changes year on year, as t s composed by the natural or legal persons whose tradng volume has exceeded 6.01 mllon euros durng the prevous natural year, snce February, the elementary ndex s obtaned as follows: Where: t t 1 j j f f t t 1 t j t f j, f t 1 t 1 s the year ndex of the elementary aggregate "", n any month t after February ). s the year ndex of the elementary aggregate "", n any month t-1. s the value of sales recorded durng the month t, by the company j whch s part of the elementary aggregate "". s the value of sales recorded durng the month t-1, by the company "j" whch s part of the elementary aggregate "" s the company "j" that s part of the elementary aggregate whch provdes nformaton about the sales recorded durng t and t Weghtngs For calculatng the weghtngs that take part n the buldngs of the aggregated ndces, we have started by usng data obtaned from the exstng structural surveys: Annual ndustral Companes Survey, Annual Trade Survey and Annual Servces Survey. The man objectve of these structural and annual surveys s to provde accurate, relable and convenent nformaton about the dfferent actvtes that make up these sectors. The sad statstcs, snce they are conceved as separate operatons, may have some dfferent methodologcal aspects. Nevertheless, the three surveys cater for the requrements of the European Unon regardng structural statstcs covered by Regulaton No. 58/97 and amended by Regulaton No. 295/08. 9

10 Thus, the homogenety n the common varables (ncludng turnover) shown n ths surveys makes possble the ntegraton of data by sectors, whch let us obtan the weghtngs requred for calculatng ths ndex. The weghtngs of each elementary aggregate represent the relatonshp between the nvocng value or turnover of the actvtes whch composes ths elementary aggregate and the total nvocng of the actvtes that make up the populaton scope of ths ndex: Mnng and quarryng ndustres and Manufacturng ndustres, Electrcal energy and water supply, Sewerage and waste management, Trade and Non-fnancal market servces. The formulaton used for calculatng the weghtngs of each elementary aggregate s the followng: W o N VN 1, o VN,0 Weghtngs of the BT,base Elementary aggregate Weghtngs Mnng and quarryng ndustres Electrcal energy and water supply, sewerage and waste management 4.67 Trade Non fnancal servces General General ndex Busness Turnover ndex s a value ndex, that s, t measures the jont performance of the quanttes, qualtes and prces.. The calculaton formula for the BT, bass, s the Laspeyres ndex, fxed base. N G t Wo 1 t 10

11 G t 1...N t W, o s the Busness Turnover ndex, base, n every month t. s every actvty, wthn the populaton scope, covered by ths ndex: Extractve and Manufacturng ndustres, Electrcal energy and water supply, sewerage and waste management, Trade and Non-fnancal market servces. s the elementary ndex, base, n every month t. s the weghtng of the elementary aggregate n the base year, as the rato between the turnover of the actvtes covered by the elementary aggregate n that year and the overall nvoce of the actvtes covered by the populaton scope of ths ndex. 6. Busness Turnover ndex adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects The BT s publshed only after adjustng for seasonal and calendar effects, base. n order to adjust the BT for seasonal effects, t has been appled the NE standards for adjustng short-term seres for seasonal and calendar effects. These standards have been elaborated by the NE Workng group for Seasonal Adjustment, whch was created by the NE Managng Board n May, and whch follows the gudelnes of the European Unon set out n the ESS gudelnes on seasonal adjustment. 6.1 ndex adjusted for calendar effects The calendar effect s defned as the mpact produced n the tme seres of a varable, due to the dfferent structure that the months (or quarters) present n the dfferent years (n both length and composton), even f the remanng factors nfluencng sad varable reman constant. The length of the month s not completely absorbed by the seasonal component, snce the number of days n February s not the same each year. Ths non-seasonal part of the component of the length of the month must be elmnated n the seres adjusted for the calendar effect. On the other hand, the composton of the month refers to the varatons n ndustral Turnover and n ndustral New Orders Receved caused by the dfferent number of publc holdays n the same month n dfferent years. The method used to adjust calendar effects s based on regarma models (regresson models wth statonary ARMA errors), followng the NE Standards and Eurostat recommendatons. Partcularly, regarma models wth four centred nterventon varables have been used for the calendar effect coverng the three followng effects: a) The workng-day effect. The adjustment of the workng-day effect has been carred out by desgnng an nterventon varable whch takes nto account the workng calendars snce 1992 and whch s compled followng the same structure used by the TRAMO- 11

12 SEATS program for the creaton of the Tradng Day seres. For the purpose of ncludng the entrety of the publc holdays, on both natonal and Autonomous Communty levels, the latter are weghted by the weghts of each Autonomous Communty n the T for each actvty. b) The Easter effect. n order to develop the model for the Easter effect two seres have been created: one of them regsters the bank holdays, and the other one regsters the workng days durng Easter. Ths has consdered that the dfferent Communtes celebrate ether Holy Thursday, or Easter Monday, or both, weghtng these days accordng to the weght that each Autonomous Communty has n the general BT. c) The leap-year effect The nterventon varable that models the effect of the leap year dstngush the months of February accountng 29 days from the rest of months of February. 6.2 ndces adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects Once the calendar effects are adjusted, a further step s taken and the ndces of seasonal effects are adjusted. Seasonal fluctuatons are movements that occur wth a smlar ntensty each month, each quarter or each season of the year, and whch are expected to contnue occurrng. Seasonally adjusted seres, that s, those that are adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, provde an estmate of what s "new" n a seres (change n the trend, the cycle and the rregular component). The tme seres analyss methodology recommends a perodcal revson of the models, n order to ncorporate the most current nformaton. Ths leads to the seres adjusted for calendar and seasonal effects always beng provsonal. 12

13 Annex Lnks to the dfferent operatons of whch BT s made up 1. Methodology of the ndustral Turnover ndces (T): 2. Methodology of the Servce Sector Actvty ndcators (SSA): 3. Methodology of the Retal Trade ndces (RT): 4. Report on Sales, Employment and Salares n Large Companes (n Spansh): stcos/nforme_de_ventas Empleo_y_Salaros_en_las_Grandes_Empresas/2013/VE SGE.pdf 13