Country reports about anticipating and matching: A first synthesis

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1 Country reports about anticipating and matching: A first synthesis Lorenz Lassnigg (lassnigg@ihs.ac.at; Input to 2nd meeting of the experts network : Anticipating and matching demand and supply of skills in ETF partner countries Workshop on October 2011, ETF, Turin Agenda Session 1: Overview about concepts and results Matching, skills, anticipation Mapping of main issues Situational analysis Data availability Methods of anticipating skill demands Policy analysis Session 2-3: Topics for further discussion 1. Institutional separation/cooperation Education Economy 2. Notice/observation/meanings of mismatch: informal-communicative vs. evidence 3. Different main issues in education in different countries: too much (overeducation) vs. not enough (increase basic education); higher education vs. intermediate VET education/training 4. Consideration of demand issues in provision of education (approaches of matching at policy level) 5. Role and approaches of anticipation 6. Policy approaches of combining matching and anticipation 2 1

2 CONCEPTS: Matching 3 Levels, individual and aggregate Institutions Individual 4 2

3 At the core of matching: individual and job Institutions dynamic and unobservable Individual People Jobs 5 : complex influences on individuals and jobs chracteristics Institutions Individual People Jobs 6 3

4 : complex influences on individuals and jobs chracteristics Institutions Policies must take into account complex interrelations between structures and microbehaviour Structures xxx Values/goals + productivity? Individual Production of peoples People Jobs Productivity Production of jobs X Incentives 7 Key aspect at aggregate level: Information represented by symbolic structures information is much more than facts Institutions SYMBOLIC STRUCTURES: KSCs, programmes, qualifications, occupations, job descriptions, sectors MEASUREMENT INFORMATION Statistical aggregations, distributions of units Structures xxx Values/goals + productivity? Individual Production of peoples People Jobs Productivity Production of jobs X Incentives 8 4

5 Matching has also an institutional dimension, aggregate attempts SPACE transnational national Institutions SYMBOLIC STRUCTURES: KSCs, programmes, qualifications, occupations, job descriptions, sectors MEASUREMENT INFORMATION Statistical aggregations, distributions of units Structures xxx Values/goals + productivity? Individual Production of peoples People Jobs Productivity Production of jobs regional local X Incentives 9 institutional dimension, aggregate attempts Institutions SYMBOLIC STRUCTURES: KSCs, programmes, qualifications, occupations, job descriptions, sectors MEASUREMENT INFORMATION Statistical aggregations, distributions of units Structures xxx Values/goals + productivity? Individual Production of peoples People Jobs Productivity Production of jobs SPACE transnational Min. Ec. national Representatives Companies, enterprises regional local X Incentives 10 5

6 institutional dimension, aggregate attempts Institutions Min. Ed. Providers SPACE transnational Min. Ec. national Representatives Companies, enterprises regional local SYMBOLIC STRUCTURES: KSCs, programmes, qualifications, occupations, job descriptions, sectors MEASUREMENT INFORMATION Statistical aggregations, distributions of units Structures xxx Values/goals + productivity? Individual Production of peoples People Jobs Productivity Production of jobs X Incentives 11 institutional dimension, aggregate attempts Institutions xxx Values/goals + productivity? Individual Min. Ed. Providers SYMBOLIC STRUCTURES: KSCs, programmes, qualifications, occupations, job descriptions, sectors MEASUREMENT INFORMATION Statistical aggregations, distributions of units Structures Production of peoples People Min. Lab./Soc. POLICIES LABOUR MARKET Jobs Productivity Production of jobs SPACE transnational Min. Ec. national Representatives Companies, enterprises regional local X Incentives 12 6

7 Matching/mismatch Matching of persons to jobs ultimately achieved at individual level, mediated through labour market; internal and external movements Good match includes many of persons and jobs, which are differently produced, different players may have different criteria (normative) Economy: mainly productivity Individuals: manifold Education: complex role and impact of education in production of persons not so clear emphasis on productivity not selfevident (conflicts about goals and values) Key aspects in matching: incentives, information, institutions/structures; the latter influence the former Approaches for improvement of matching on different aspects Key point for policy: relationship between information & institutions/structures 13 CONCEPTS: Skills, qualifications 14 7

8 Focus on qualifications Production of peoples Skills/qualifications SPACE Policies of qualifications frameworks & learning outcomes: transnational Min. try Ed. to make skills Min. explicit Lab./Soc. in qualifications Min. Ec. national xxx Values/goals + productivity? POLICIES qualifications as signals/proxies use of qualifications use of skills Individual People Jobs Production of jobs Representatives Focus on skills regional Companies, LABOUR Institutions Providers enterprises local MARKET SYMBOLIC STRUCTURES: KSCs, programmes, qualifications, occupations, job descriptions, sectors MEASUREMENT skills implicit INFORMATION Statistical aggregations, distributions of production of units Structures skills within qualifications Productivity X Incentives 15 Skills/qualifications Skills are a key element in matching persons to jobs meaning of skills includes many aspects, concept used differently often general expression of capabilities of people at/for work (economics), often not separated from qualification KSC: technically specific aspect of capabilites, separated from knowledge (declarative) and competences (social, personal) technical/operational aspect of immediate practical performance of work tasks specifically in relation to qualifications: content aspect (skill) vs. credential aspect (qualification means certificate) Key issue: which skills are represented by a certificate/qualification Matching with respect to skills used in different meanings that are often merged and confused content/qualitative meaning: do people have the right skills to perform a job? formal/quantitative: do the qualifications of people correspond to their job? The different meanings have strong consequences for measurement 16 8

9 CONCEPTS: Anticipation 17 Institutions Anticipation and matching: TIME SYMBOLIC STRUCTURES: KSCs, programmes, qualifications, occupations, job descriptions, sectors MEASUREMENT INFORMATION Statistical aggregations, distributions of units Structures xxx Values/goals + productivity? Min. Ed. Providers Production of peoples Min. Lab./Soc. POLICIES LABOUR MARKET Individual People Jobs Representatives Companies, enterprises Production of jobs SPACE transnational Min. Ec. national Productivity regional local X Incentives 18 9

10 Anticipation and matching: FUNCTION 1 Knowledge Creation Min. Ed. Min. Lab./Soc. SPACE transnational Min. Ec. national Representatives POLICIES KNOWLEDGE CREATION: - Forecasting - Projections regional Companies, - Surveys LABOUR Institutions Providers enterprises - etc. local MARKET SYMBOLIC STRUCTURES: KSCs, programmes, qualifications, occupations, job descriptions, sectors MEASUREMENT INFORMATION Statistical aggregations, distributions of units Structures xxx Values/goals + productivity? Production of peoples Individual People Jobs Productivity Production of jobs X Incentives 19 Anticipation and matching: FUNCTION 2 Information, Dissemination Min. Ed. Representatives POLICIES KNOWLEDGE CREATION: - Forecasting - Projections regional Companies, - Surveys LABOUR Institutions Providers enterprises - etc. local MARKET SYMBOLIC STRUCTURES: KSCs, programmes, qualifications, occupations, job descriptions, sectors MEASUREMENT INFORMATION Statistical aggregations, distributions of units Structures xxx Values/goals + productivity? Production of peoples Min. Lab./Soc. Individual People Jobs Production of jobs SPACE transnational Min. Ec. national Productivity X Incentives 20 10

11 Anticipation and matching: FUNCTION 3 Matching policies Min. Ed. Min. Lab./Soc. SPACE transnational Min. Ec. national Representatives POLICIES KNOWLEDGE CREATION: - Forecasting - Projections regional Companies, - Surveys LABOUR Institutions Providers enterprises - etc. local MARKET SYMBOLIC STRUCTURES: KSCs, programmes, qualifications, occupations, job descriptions, sectors MEASUREMENT INFORMATION Statistical aggregations, distributions of units Structures xxx Values/goals + productivity? Production of peoples Individual People Jobs Productivity Production of jobs X Incentives 21 Anticipation and matching brings time into matching by focusing on future demands however, future has already been in implicitly before by different expectations of actors and their acting towards them individuals expectations are strongly influenced by their origin and past experience ( social capital ) educational actors have traditionally a long term perspective (life-time education) economic actors bring in the short term development of the market Key questions of anticipation are (1) knowledge: how actors can know more about the future and (2) implementation: how to bring this knowledge into practice Activities, functions that might improve matching: improvement of knowledge (baseline): evidence observation // communication influence/change expectations/practices by better information influence/change incentives, institutions, structures based on better information 22 11

12 Generalised highlights from country reports Main issues Situational analysis Data Anticipation Policy analysis 23 Mapping of main issues Understandings Skills mostly diffuse understanding of the term; often technical/professional skills Matching/mismatch mostly weak evidence; rather narrative-communicative beliefs; mostly current often vacancies/unemployed by occupations; overeducation, wrong specialisations, publicprivate; difference qualifications practical skills (quantity-quality); regions Anticipation commonly gap between demand for anticipation and practices of anticipation most interest/involvement by employment service; most practices employers surveys; available approaches not much used (paradox?) Main problems of mismatch / future demand quantity-quality problem, gap education economy and labour market, gap public private complexity: mixture of aspects (migration, wage-differentials, traditions, etc.) more focus on current problems than future demand (vacancies-unemployed); labour market training; future fragile (structural change; crisis-recovery) rather vague ideas than concrete problems, use of supply from higher education 24 12

13 Situational analysis Actors public: commonly at least three ministries involved (education, labour, economy); in large states also regions employment service/office commonly most involved/interested in matching and anticipation employers voice strongly noticed, however, weakly organised/involved (surveys) educational institutions: mostly higher education, VET centres, strong state influence also important: statistical offices (data), international organisations (support, advice) emerging: intermediate actors (councils, observatories, etc.) Overall patterns of demand and supply Common: structural change; low employment rate + informal economy, mostly young population (except SERB), modest ageing, hit by crisis Some: strong outward migration (MOL, KYR, SER) Specific mismatches and requirements Complaints quality (EGY, MOL, UKR, KYR); soft skills (EGY, TUR); occupations 25 Data availability Education Education statistics, quite detailed (enrolment, graduates) Labour market training, VET centres not always clear Some specific data in selected countries: accredited institutions, school management Employment Common: register data unemployed, vacancies Quite common: Labour force survey (LFS); less: employers surveys Some countries: wages, migration Some specific data in selected countries: longitudinal monitoring, outflow unemployment, specific business surveys, manufacturing, child labour Transition: most countries some specific information: some LFS (module), some specific occasional studies around (MOL). Utilisation: majority some information (wages, follow-up, surveys) (UKR), however, less comparable 26 13

14 Methods of anticipating skill demands All reports quite critical Quite common: enterprise surveys mostly short-term (1 year), increasingly established regularly (annual) by employment agencies; just started 2010, 2011 some occasional, more mid-term, some sectorial Formal statistical approaches: different categories Demand side quite common: current analysis of registered unemployed / vacancies, CRO: outflows frequently: assessment of current demand of public (+private) institutions seldom: demand-side forecasting or projections (EGY forecast; KYR survey+projection) Supply side sometimes: analysis and short term projecting of supply side data Some sectorial studies and communicative approaches CRO sector studies; EGY observatory, prospect, enterprise training partnerships; (MOL, UKR, KYR) part of broader strategies 27 Policy analysis Basic question: bringing approaches together, utilisation of information technical forecasting established as strong priority in some countries MOL, UKR, KYR part of broader development strategies, already experience in EGY (employment), KYR (projections) less or no priority in others (TUR), rather current monitoring (CRO, MON) alternatives: focus on guidance (MON), labour market policy (monitoring), retraining (TUR, MON, CRO), cooperative training (TUR, EGY), institutional cooperation (MON) embedded in communicative bodies (EGY, KYR, MOL) or only cooperative strategies (CRO) councils, sectorial committees problem: implementation of strategies ( bringing down to earth ) 28 14

15 Agenda Session 1: Overview about concepts and results Matching, skills, anticipation Mapping of main issues Situational analysis Data availability Methods of anticipating skill demands Policy analysis Session 2-3: Topics for further discussion 1. Institutional separation/cooperation Education Economy 2. Notice/observation/meanings of mismatch: informal-communicative vs. evidence 3. Different main issues in education in different countries: too much (overeducation) vs. not enough (increase basic education); higher education vs. intermediate VET education/training 4. Consideration of demand issues in provision of education (approaches of matching at policy level) 5. Role and approaches of anticipation 6. Policy approaches of combining matching and anticipation 29 SESSION 2: Important Aspects and cases Institutional separation/cooperation Education Economy CASE-presentation: MOLDOVA Notice/observation/meanings of mismatch: informal-communicative vs. evidence CASE-presentation: CROATIA Different main issues in education in different countries: too much (overeducation) vs. not enough (increase basic education); higher education vs. intermediate VET education/training CASE-presentation: TURKEY 30 15

16 1. Institutional separation/cooperation Education Economy Commonly three ministries responsible for issues of matching and anticipation: education (with science), complaints about hesitation, rigidity, slowness labour (with social affairs, migration), economy (with technology), not so much info Most interest and activities with matching and anticipation: employment agencies (under responsibility of min.labour) data analysis vacancies, unemployed employer surveys (annually) running also training institutions Cooperation/linkages mostly with VET institutions, VET centres (related to labour market policies), more difficult: higher education Partnerships, also with enterprises, international co-operation initiatives (small) 31 Questions 1 How to overcome the separation? Decentralisation, market strategies More emphasis on implementation issues/concrete action plans Involvement of actors in intermediate bodies (councils, observatories) Placing VET nearer to labour market authorities How to deal with non-economic and long-term objectives of education in relation to the short-term economic demands? 32 16

17 2. Notice/observation/meanings of mismatch: informal-communicative vs. evidence in all countries notions of current mismatch, more or less marked, various problems/phenomena graduates do not find employment too many; wrong subjects credentialism, quantity-quality, costs of education unfulfilled demand technical vocational qualifications bottlenecks Rather communicative judgement than clear evidence, important source: employers surveys Evidence most commonly based on labour market register, vacancies vs. unemployed by occupations, current situation Youth transition many studies Big question: credibility of evidence, so that can be put into action 33 Questions 2 Does evidence really help? Indications that evidence, if it exists, is not much utilised, why? What are the barriers to the use of evidence? How to relate evidence to communicative beliefs and appraisals? How to overcome uncertainty and to enhance credibility? 34 17

18 3. Different main issues in education in different countries too much (overeducation) vs. not enough (increase basic education) all countries: strong tendency towards higher education, led by educational demand (particularly KYR, EGY) quality problems related to lack of financing credentialism /selectivity seems to aggravate problem (TUR, EGY), private tutoring more basic education necessary, women (TUR, EGY) higher education vs. intermediate VET education/training VET, technical education development: EGY, MON, TUR, KYR combination to labour market policy, adult education development 35 Questions 3 How to change basic patterns? demand for education strong driver, how can it be influenced? role of evidence and information credibility of evidence influencing individuals vs. influencing policies 36 18

19 Agenda Session 1: Overview about concepts and results Matching, skills, anticipation Mapping of main issues Situational analysis Data availability Methods of anticipating skill demands Policy analysis Session 2-3: Topics for further discussion 1. Institutional separation/cooperation Education Economy 2. Notice/observation/meanings of mismatch: informal-communicative vs. evidence 3. Different main issues in education in different countries: too much (overeducation) vs. not enough (increase basic education); higher education vs. intermediate VET education/training 4. Consideration of demand issues in provision of education (approaches of matching at policy level) 5. Role and approaches of anticipation 6. Policy approaches of combining matching and anticipation 37 SESSION 3: Important Aspects and cases 4. Consideration of demand issues in provision of education (approaches of matching at policy level) CASE-presentation: UKRAINE 5. Role and approaches of anticipation CASE-presentation: MONTENEGRO 6. Policy approaches of combining matching and anticipation CASE-presentation: EGYPT 38 19

20 4. Consideration of demand issues in provision of education ( matching at policy level) Basic problem in matching: individuals can only choose education programmes that are available, and available programmes structure choices, therefore provision of feasible programmes is very important Mostly education authorities are responsible for provision, they have their own logic, and often heavy mechanisms are involved some trade-off between decentralisation/marketization and common goals: education/training cumulative long-term process, later inputs depend on earlier inputs > how to draw distinctions between initial and further education? choices also follow an educational logic with an inherent upward tendency within education: people will follow provision, if there is restriction/selection they will try harder (see TUR), incentives support upward tendency, even with overeducation (returns become smaller, but are there) information is necessary for enlightenment, but a weak instrument for influencing choice Big unanswered question: what is the real contribution of education to personal? 39 Questions 4 How can evidence improve matching? How much, and to which actors can information help? How to find a balance between decentralised decisions and planning ( aggregate decisions )? How to deal with established practices of (insufficient) planning? 40 20

21 5. Role and approaches of anticipation First requirement of anticipation is creation of knowledge by data and communicative processes, problem with evidence because there can be no proof depending on time scale self-destructing evidence Role is information of the various actors, problem: should not end with knowledge creation, but with knowledge use use for decisions within structures use for decisions that change structures Much asked for, mostly low activity criticised, examples are big trend towards employers surveys, annnually conducted (short-term) KYR: survey combined with projections CRO: ranking based on past flow indicators CRO: sectors coucils EGY: observatory 41 Questions 5 How to bring anticipation into use? Can anticipation fulfil expectations and promises, if it is implemented? What are pre-conditions to be put into use? 42 21

22 6. Policy approaches of combining matching and anticipation Different aspects of policies emphasis on current situation vs. future development planning of supply vs. decentralisation & individual decisions cooperative/communicative approaches (national, sectoral councils; local partnerships) priority setting and embeddedness in broader strategies, legal status of initiatives Current mismatch: labour market policy Future: orientation and guidance Inflexibility of education Relation to standards and qualifications frameworks 43 Questions 6 Strategy and practice, top-down-bottom-up How to work at the different levels? Strategies without practice vs. practice without strategies Which aspects must be covered by policies? Selective vs. comprehensive How to combine technical and communicative aspects in policies? How to combine current needs with the future? Credibility of anticipation 44 22

23 The End Thank you for your attention! 45 Material