Trade and Inequality. Clausen Conference on Global Economic Issues 2017 Bob Koopman Chief Economist, World Trade Organization

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Trade and Inequality. Clausen Conference on Global Economic Issues 2017 Bob Koopman Chief Economist, World Trade Organization"

Transcription

1 Trade and Inequality Clausen Conference on Global Economic Issues 2017 Bob Koopman Chief Economist, World Trade Organization

2 Context Trade has come under increasing fire in some developed countries Mixed views about particular trade agreements and trading relationships Attitudes in developing countries more favorable to trade Reaction to trade is part of a reaction to globalization which also encompasses technology, migration, finance, etc. Many people believe that the current system is not working for them Indeed, while many are doing well, some are being left behind Within country income inequality is rising in many economies (US, UK, Canada, Australia, Germany, France) In some countries, whole regions are left behind

3 Closeness = Similarity in trade structure Closeness = Similarity in trade structure Trade in the last 35 years? Global convergence Systemic relevance in the global trade Systemic relevance in the global trade Source: Latin America and the Rising South, World Bank. Calculations are based on data from the Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS). 3

4 But increasing sub-national divergence? Highly import-exposed regions Ruhr area Coal & steel Südwestpfalz Textiles and shoes Oberfranken Toys, consumer electronics Highly export-oriented regions Lower Bavaria, Stuttgart, Allgäu car parts Eastern Germany Much smaller manufacturing sector overall Cars & smaller impacts of trade, lower geographical variation

5 Or Autor, Dorn and Hanson in US

6 WTO WTR 2017 Looks at trade and technology and examines how they are affecting labor markets. It argues that: trade and technological progress are the most important drivers of economic advances; overall they raise incomes and contribute to prosperity; inevitably, however, these advances are accompanied by economic change and upheaval in job markets; there should be no trade-off between openness or technology and inclusiveness and the challenge is to achieve more of all three. Trade and technology raise the demand for skilled workers, which tends to raise the skill premium. Impact on inequality depends on distribution of skills in the economy Trade itself is not the problem, but rather can with the right supporting policies be part of the solution

7 Unemployment rates do not exhibit any longterm trends. The incidence of unemployment varies greatly across and within regions.

8 Average real wages have continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace since the Great Recession, across most countries over the past 10 years. G20 emerging G20

9 The share of employment in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors continues to decline or stagnate in developed countries and in an increasing number of developing countries. The share of overall employment in services continues to grow in both developed and developing economies. Services Industry

10 The share of middle-skill occupations in total employment has declined in developed economies and a number of developing countries, while the shares of high- and low-skilled occupations have increased.

11 The skill premium, defined as the ratio between the wages of skilled and unskilled workers, has increased across several developed and developing countries, while it has remained constant or decreased in others. China India US Argentina Indonesia Spain Chile Mexico Brazil

12 Skill Premium An increase in the demand for skills due to trade or technological change will not necessarily translate into an increase in the skill premium. In Latin America for instance, there is evidence that trade raises the demand for skills but the skill premium has decreased. Suggests that other forces (supply) have more than offset the likely positive effect of trade. Depends on the response of the supply of skills - trade and technology will either raise the skill premium or raise the share of skilled employment or a combination of both. Given that trade and technology also affect prices, one would need to consider the effects of trade or technology induced changes in both prices and wages on the distribution of real wages to get the complete story. There is some evidence that the price effect is favourable to lower wage workers.

13 Main drivers of labour market outcomes The diversity of outcomes across countries is in line with one of the main insights from labour economics which suggests that country-specific factors play an important role in explaining labour market outcomes. The impact of technology and trade needs to be assessed in the context of the other major factors shaping supply and demand for labour and their influence on wages and employment, including macroeconomic conditions, labour market institutions and mobility frictions.

14 Adjustment costs Workers who lose their jobs in declining sectors, in exposed regions are not always well equipped and well placed to access newly created jobs Because of various frictions which constrain the mobility of workers, adjustment costs can sometimes be significant. Examples of frictions include: skill-mismatch related frictions, geographic mobility frictions, institutions related frictions Recent cross-country empirical evidence suggests that on average obstacles to labour mobility are twice as high in developing countries as in developed countries

15 How does technological change affect labour markets? Aggregate effects Technological progress is the main source of economic growth, but it is also the main source of labour market change. New technologies can substitute for workers, but there are several mechanisms that can compensate their labour-saving impact. The overall effects on labour demand are, in principle, ambiguous. The empirical literature has generally found small and possibly even positive effects of technological change on aggregate labour demand and employment. There are, however, a few relevant exceptions, with some studies showing the negative effects on labour demand generated by technological change. A common theme in the literature is that, in developed and developing countries alike, the most relevant effects are on the structure, rather than on the level, of employment.

16 Effects on the composition of employment: SBTC Technological progress has contributed to a higher relative demand for skilled workers. In particular, the rapid diffusion of ICTs in the work place since the 1980s is consistent with an increase in the relative demand for skills because of complementarity between ICTs and skills. The development of skill-complementary technologies in most developed countries was itself partly driven by the rapid increase in the supply of skilled workers since the late 1960s. The skill-biased technical change (SBTC) hypothesis is largely confirmed for developed countries, in the form of a positive relationship between employment of skilled labour and various measures of technological innovation, such as the use of computers, R&D intensity, and the number of innovations and patents. The use of computers in the workplace has been the central force driving changes in the skill premium. For the US, computerization accounts for 60 per cent of the rise in the skill premium between 1984 and Evidence of skill-biased technological change exists also for some developing countries, especially when technological change is measured as embodied in imports and inward FDI.

17 Effects on the composition of employment: RBTC Technological change is correlated with employment polarization, because it affects routine activities (both manual and cognitive) more than non-routine activities, and routine activities are typically performed by middle-skilled workers. For developed countries, there is evidence that technological change has led to a lower relative demand for workers performing routine activities and consequently to employment polarization. There are however some exceptions. Some authors have found that industrial robots lead to skill upgrading rather than to employment polarization. Technological shocks in the US (measured as shocks in ICT capital) explain up to one-third of the observed decline in middle-skilled employment. In developing countries, the evidence that technological change is biased against routine employment is limited to very few countries.

18 How does trade affect labour markets? Aggregate effects Like technological change, trade brings overall gains Welfare Gains: Lower prices and thus higher real wages; larger product variety. Higher productivity: imports of cheaper inputs; specialization Generally both have much bigger compositional effects on employment than on the level of employment. Importers and exporters pay higher wages (around 30 per cent more) than firms focusing on the domestic market. Globally, millions of jobs depend on international trade. export-related jobs (up to 30 per cent in some countries), but imports support jobs also Empirically, trade actually increase even if just slightly overall employment. In the US, there is no nation-wide job losses from import competition. Some manufacturing jobs are lost in a given region or a city, other jobs are created elsewhere or in the services sector. ADH not general equilibrium, but concentrated regional and sectoral effects are important to understand and address.

19 Effects on the composition of employment Like technology, trade triggers changes Dynamics have been known since Hecksher-Ohlin Some regions, sectors, and individuals benefit from trade, others can lose without adequate policy responses. Adjustment costs have been underestimated, but still remain a small share of estimated gains. Recent evidence on the impact of China's import competition For example, in the US: in regions less exposed to import competition, employment developed favourably compared to employment in more exposed regions. Yet, trade explain up to 20-25% of the recent decline in US manufacturing jobs. This implies that other factors, such as technological change, explain over 75-80% of the decline in manufacturing jobs in the US.

20 Trade and skills Both trade and technology increase the demand for skilled workers relative to unskilled workers in all countries In advanced economies, the main channels appear to be specialization in skill-intensive activities, offshoring of routine tasks and increased innovative activity as a response to competition from low-cost exporters. In developing economies, the main channel appears to be technology diffusion through imports of capital goods, intermediate inputs and know-how. Higher demand for skills can translate into: an increase in the skill premium an increase in the share of skilled workers in employment polarization If trade raises the skill premium, it will affect wage inequality

21 Conclusion Adaptability and inclusiveness are not only essential to help societies and individuals realize the full benefits of technological progress and trade opening, they are also critical to maintain political support for these two important drivers of economic growth and development. More trade and more inclusive trade go together. While current concerns about globalization may have contributed to the slowing pace of global trade integration and structural reform, the inverse may also be true that the slowing pace of globalization has contributed to current concerns (growing popular discontent, rising social divisions, and greater geo-economic tensions). Adjusting to economic change is a global challenge that requires a global response. Even if many of today s labour market problems are traceable to domestic policy shortcomings, a failure to find answers can have global ramifications that affect all countries, as history has shown.

Preview. Introduction. Chapter 5. Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model

Preview. Introduction. Chapter 5. Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model Chapter 5 Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model Preview Production possibilities Changing the mix of inputs Relationships among factor prices and goods prices, and resources and output Trade in

More information

Technology, Trade and Structural Change

Technology, Trade and Structural Change Technology, Trade and Structural Change Farid Toubal (ENS Paris-Saclay, CREST and CEPII) WTO Trade Dialogues Lecture Series Geneva, May 2017 Structural changes and job polarization Advanced economies have

More information

Trade, Technology and the Rise of Non-Routine Jobs

Trade, Technology and the Rise of Non-Routine Jobs Trade, Technology and the Rise of Non-Routine Jobs Gaaitzen de Vries (based on joint work with Laurie Reijnders) Groningen Growth and Development Center, University of Groningen Research Center for Global

More information

Chapter 5 Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model

Chapter 5 Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model Chapter 5 Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model Preview Production possibilities Changing the mix of inputs Relationships among factor prices and goods prices, and resources and output Trade in

More information

Chapter 5 Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model

Chapter 5 Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model Chapter 5 Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model Introduction In addition to differences in labor productivity, trade occurs due to differences in resources across countries. The Heckscher-Ohlin

More information

International Monetary and Financial Committee

International Monetary and Financial Committee International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Eighth Meeting October 12 13, 2018 Statement No. 38-5 Statement by Mr. Barkindo OPEC Statement by H.E. Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo Secretary General

More information

Global Talent 2021: The Transformation of Labor Supply and Demand in World Markets

Global Talent 2021: The Transformation of Labor Supply and Demand in World Markets Global Talent 2021: The Transformation of Labor Supply and Demand in World Markets Adrian Cooper CEO and Chief Economist Oxford Economics acooper@oxfordeconomics.com October 2012 Global Talent 2021 key

More information

National Competitiveness Council s Productivity Statement Productivity Statement 2018

National Competitiveness Council s Productivity Statement Productivity Statement 2018 National Competitiveness Council s Productivity Statement 2018 Productivity Statement 2018 1 November 2018 Summary Productivity growth is a key determinant of national competitiveness, enabling firms to

More information

LABOR MARKET POLARIZATION

LABOR MARKET POLARIZATION LABOR MARKET POLARIZATION ECONOMIC SUMMIT THE CHALLENGE: KEEPING UP JUNE 17, 2014 Melissa LoPalo and Pia Orrenius The opinions expressed are solely those of the presenter and do not reflect the opinions

More information

Remarks by José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs

Remarks by José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs 1 Remarks by José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs Executive Director, Employment Sector, ILO At UNCTAD XIII Panel on Reflections on the international trading system and inclusive development Doha, Quatar, 24

More information

Trade, Technology and Jobs: A WTO Contribution to the Debate

Trade, Technology and Jobs: A WTO Contribution to the Debate Trade, Technology and Jobs: A WTO Contribution to the Debate Working Paper commissioned by the Group of 24 and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung New York November 2018 Marc Bacchetta and José Antonio Monteiro 1

More information

Extended Abstract: Inequality and trade in services in the UK

Extended Abstract: Inequality and trade in services in the UK Extended Abstract: Inequality and trade in services in the UK Martina Magli July, 2017 The present study investigates the role of rise in services offshoring on UK local wages inequality for the period

More information

What we know (and don t know) about economic growth in New Zealand. Strategic Policy Branch

What we know (and don t know) about economic growth in New Zealand. Strategic Policy Branch What we know (and don t know) about economic growth in New Zealand July 2016 Strategic Policy Branch Document purpose What we know (and don t know) about economic growth in New Zealand : Brings together

More information

CHAPTER 2 FOUNDATIONS OF MODERN TRADE THEORY

CHAPTER 2 FOUNDATIONS OF MODERN TRADE THEORY CHAPTER 2 FOUNDATIONS OF MODERN TRADE THEORY MULTIPLE-CHOICE QUESTIONS 1. The mercantilists would have objected to: a. Export promotion policies initiated by the government b. The use of tariffs or quotas

More information

The Effects of Trade on Changes in Relative Demand for Labour in Malaysia ( )

The Effects of Trade on Changes in Relative Demand for Labour in Malaysia ( ) International Applied Economics and Management Letters 1(1): 47-51 (2008) The Effects of Trade on Changes in Relative Demand for Labour in Malaysia (1984-1997) Rusmawati Said a and Asmaddy Haris b a Faculty

More information

CULTURAL MARKETING HURDLES

CULTURAL MARKETING HURDLES Topic: Marketing & Social Media CULTURAL MARKETING HURDLES In a globalized world products and marketing campaigns have long been crossing national borders. But the differences in the acceptance of online

More information

Cheap Grain and Tariffs. A note on O Rourke and the late 19 th century Grain Invasion in Europe.

Cheap Grain and Tariffs. A note on O Rourke and the late 19 th century Grain Invasion in Europe. Cheap Grain and Tariffs. A note on O Rourke and the late 19 th century Grain Invasion in Europe. This note replaces K. O Rourke s article The European Grain Invasion, 1870-1913, JEH, 57:4, 1997, pp.775-801.

More information

Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda Kym Anderson and Will Martin

Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda Kym Anderson and Will Martin Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda Kym Anderson and Will Martin Development Research Group The World Bank Washington DC Kanderson@worldbank.org Why try to reduce sensitive agric

More information

Technology, work and international economic relations. Shamik Dhar, Chief Economist at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office

Technology, work and international economic relations. Shamik Dhar, Chief Economist at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office Technology, work and international economic relations Shamik Dhar, Chief Economist at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office Unleashing peoples' potential Top of the international agenda Technological change

More information

Contents. 1. Economic progress involves economic change New chapter in an old story Structure of this report 18

Contents. 1. Economic progress involves economic change New chapter in an old story Structure of this report 18 A Introduction That the global economy has gone through a period both of enormous dynamism and of enormous disruption over the past quarter-century is hardly surprising the two are inextricably linked.

More information

Session on Polarization between Firms

Session on Polarization between Firms Session on Polarization between Firms Presentations by Fredrik Heyman and John Van Reenen Discussant: Matías Cortés (York University) Polarisation(s) in Labour Markets Conference Paris, June 2018 Context

More information

In the UK today, the richest tenth

In the UK today, the richest tenth Over the last 3 years, inequality has risen as new technologies have massively increased the demand for highly skilled workers. But as research by Guy Michaels and colleagues shows, it is not simply a

More information

Recent transformations in the Global Economy and its consequences for economic and social development. Joseph E. Stiglitz Cuba December 2016

Recent transformations in the Global Economy and its consequences for economic and social development. Joseph E. Stiglitz Cuba December 2016 Recent transformations in the Global Economy and its consequences for economic and social development Joseph E. Stiglitz Cuba December 2016 Outline The recent evolution of beliefs system about what makes

More information

What Economics Can Teach Us About Inequality and Social Policy. Lawrence F. Katz, Harvard University October 11, 2013

What Economics Can Teach Us About Inequality and Social Policy. Lawrence F. Katz, Harvard University October 11, 2013 What Economics Can Teach Us About Inequality and Social Policy Lawrence F. Katz, Harvard University October 11, 2013 Three Major Recent Contributions of Economics 1. Supply-Demand-Institutions Framework

More information

The Future of Work. Automation & Employment. Social Situation Monitor Research Seminar

The Future of Work. Automation & Employment. Social Situation Monitor Research Seminar The Future of Work Automation & Employment Social Situation Monitor Research Seminar Friday 10 November 2017 11:30 16:10 Hall 300 The Square Glass Entrance Mont des Arts/Kunstberg B-1000 Brussels where

More information

A GATïà ^ GÉNÉRAL SUR LES TARIFS DOUA RS ET LE COMMEM

A GATïà ^ GÉNÉRAL SUR LES TARIFS DOUA RS ET LE COMMEM Press Relea ommuniqu iepr< GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TARIFFS AND TRADE A GATïà ^ GÉNÉRAL SUR LES TARIFS DOUA RS ET LE COMMEM >ntre William Rappard, Rue de Lausanne 154, 1211 Genève 21 M W Tél. (022M 31 02 31

More information

Trade Liberalisation and Its Impact on Employment: An Analysis of Indian Experiences (With Special References of Indian Manufacturing Industries)

Trade Liberalisation and Its Impact on Employment: An Analysis of Indian Experiences (With Special References of Indian Manufacturing Industries) MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive Trade Liberalisation and Its Impact on Employment: An Analysis of Indian Experiences (With Special References of Indian Manufacturing Industries) Avnesh Kumar Gupta Kalindi

More information

The Future of Work. Automation & Employment. Social Situation Monitor Research Seminar

The Future of Work. Automation & Employment. Social Situation Monitor Research Seminar The Future of Work Automation & Employment Social Situation Monitor Research Seminar Friday 10 November 2017 12:00 16:10 Hall 300 The Square Glass Entrance Mont des Arts/Kunstberg B-1000 Brussels s & abstracts

More information

The East Asian Economic Crisis: It's not All Bad News

The East Asian Economic Crisis: It's not All Bad News Purdue University Purdue e-pubs GTAP Working Papers Agricultural Economics 1-1-1999 The East Asian Economic Crisis: It's not All Bad News Elena Ianchovichina World Bank Thomas Hertel Purdue University

More information

The Polarization of Employment: Explanations and Implications

The Polarization of Employment: Explanations and Implications The Polarization of Employment: Explanations and Implications Georg Graetz Department of Economics at Uppsala University LINK Research Lab, U Texas Arlington, March 23 2016 focus on job polarization Introduction

More information

Growth, Productivity, and Wealth in the Long Run

Growth, Productivity, and Wealth in the Long Run General Observations about Growth Growth, Productivity, and Wealth in the Long Run Growth is an increase in the amount of goods and services an economy produces. Chapter 7 Growth is an increase in potential

More information

Lecture 10: THE AD-AS MODEL Reference: Chapter 8

Lecture 10: THE AD-AS MODEL Reference: Chapter 8 Lecture 10: THE AD-AS MODEL Reference: Chapter 8 LEARNING OBJECTIVES 1.What determines the shape of the aggregate demand (AD) curve and what factors shift the entire curve. 2.What determines the shape

More information

The Rise of China and Labor Market Adjustments in Latin America Erhan Artuç, Daniel Lederman and Diego Rojas

The Rise of China and Labor Market Adjustments in Latin America Erhan Artuç, Daniel Lederman and Diego Rojas World Bank Joint LAC Chief Economist and Development Economics Research Group Conference The Rise of the South at a Crossroads: A View from East Asia and Latin America The Rise of China and Labor Market

More information

Is Globalization Causing A 'Race To The Bottom' In Environmental Standards? (Part 4 of a four part series)

Is Globalization Causing A 'Race To The Bottom' In Environmental Standards? (Part 4 of a four part series) Is Globalization Causing A 'Race To The Bottom' In Environmental Standards? (Part 4 of a four part series) If globalization promotes growth, won't that mean more environmental degradation? Some critics

More information

A global view on the future of work. Irmgard Nübler Research Department International Labour Organisation Geneva

A global view on the future of work. Irmgard Nübler Research Department International Labour Organisation Geneva A global view on the future of work Irmgard Nübler Research Department International Labour Organisation Geneva ILO initiative on the future of work Centenary Project 1 2 3 Four conversations around the

More information

Identification of Content of International Benchmarking and Field Survey

Identification of Content of International Benchmarking and Field Survey Identification of Content of International Benchmarking and Field Survey 1. Objectives of the Project The main objective of the project is to boost TFP in the Turkish manufacturing industry by focusing

More information

Boosting economic dynamics and job growth: The potential of industrial policies. Setting the scene: New industrial policies for catching up

Boosting economic dynamics and job growth: The potential of industrial policies. Setting the scene: New industrial policies for catching up Boosting economic dynamics and job growth: The potential of industrial policies Joint workshop of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation and ILO 4-5 March 2013 The Jiva Hill Hotel, Crozet, France Setting the scene:

More information

Managing Trade: Evidence from China and the US

Managing Trade: Evidence from China and the US Managing Trade: Evidence from China and the US Nick Bloom, Stanford Kalina Manova, Stanford and Oxford Stephen Sun, Peking University John Van Reenen, LSE Zhihong Yu, Nottingham SCID / IGC : Trade, Productivity,

More information

Impact of trade on labour market outcomes

Impact of trade on labour market outcomes D Impact of trade on labour market outcomes This section looks at the empirical evidence on the effect of trade on wages and employment and addresses the following key questions: what is the evidence of

More information

Topic 3.2a Minimum Wages. Professor H.J. Schuetze Economics 370

Topic 3.2a Minimum Wages. Professor H.J. Schuetze Economics 370 Topic 3.2a Minimum Wages Professor H.J. Schuetze Economics 370 Minimum Wages Canada: Each province sets its own minimum wage. Interprovincial/international industries are under federal jurisdiction Reason

More information

26-27 October Harnessing International Production Networks to Foster Inclusive Growth and Local Capacities. Paper submitted by

26-27 October Harnessing International Production Networks to Foster Inclusive Growth and Local Capacities. Paper submitted by Multi-year Expert Meeting on Enhancing the Enabling Economic Environment at all Levels in Support of Inclusive and Sustainable Development, and the Promotion of Economic Integration and Cooperation 26-27

More information

The fortunes of U.S. farmers and

The fortunes of U.S. farmers and U.S. Food Sector Linked to Global Consumers Anita Regmi and Greg Pompelli The fortunes of U.S. farmers and food processors are increasingly influenced by events in markets around the world. The importance

More information

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1 2018 Edition Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 @ ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND NUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATES FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2050 REFERENCE

More information

Technology and Labour Demand: Insights from Indian Manufacturing. Pankaj Vashisht Fellow ICRIER

Technology and Labour Demand: Insights from Indian Manufacturing. Pankaj Vashisht Fellow ICRIER Technology and Labour Demand: Insights from Indian Manufacturing Pankaj Vashisht Fellow ICRIER Scheme of Presentation Technology and Jobs: Theoretical Understanding Employment and Technological Progress

More information

OPEC Statement to the Spring Meetings of the IMF/World Bank, April Copyright 2019 OPEC

OPEC Statement to the Spring Meetings of the IMF/World Bank, April Copyright 2019 OPEC Statement by H.E. Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo Secretary General Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty Four (G-24) Meeting of Ministers and Governors

More information

World Energy Outlook Bo Diczfalusy, Näringsdepartementet

World Energy Outlook Bo Diczfalusy, Näringsdepartementet World Energy Outlook 2013 Bo Diczfalusy, Näringsdepartementet Energy demand & GDP Trillion dollars (2012) 50 40 30 20 10 000 Mtoe 8 000 6 000 4 000 GDP: OECD Non-OECD TPED (right axis): OECD Non-OECD 10

More information

FOR INTERNAL PURPOSES ONLY INDIA MARKET REPORT GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES IN PACKAGING ( ) (NPeS7. lfvoma. ft PrintPromotion PRODUCED BY

FOR INTERNAL PURPOSES ONLY INDIA MARKET REPORT GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES IN PACKAGING ( ) (NPeS7. lfvoma. ft PrintPromotion PRODUCED BY FOR INTERNAL PURPOSES ONLY INDIA MARKET REPORT GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES IN PACKAGING (2011-2020) (NPeS7 lfvoma ft PrintPromotion -- PRODUCED BY Table of contents 7 13 23 40 49 56 63 107 115 137 143 Executive

More information

Understanding unemployment

Understanding unemployment Chapter 3 Understanding unemployment 0 Why you should be interested in unemployment Unemployment is closely related to the emergence of capitalism But mass unemployment as a permanent phenomenon only appeared

More information

Global Value Chains and Development. Roberta Rabellotti University of Pavia & Aalborg University

Global Value Chains and Development. Roberta Rabellotti University of Pavia & Aalborg University Global Value Chains and Development Roberta Rabellotti University of Pavia & Aalborg University roberta.rabellotti@unipv.it MY CV in brief Degree in Economics Università Bocconi in Milan; MSc in Development

More information

On the Institutional and Technological Determinants of Contract Labor: Evidence from a Trade Shock

On the Institutional and Technological Determinants of Contract Labor: Evidence from a Trade Shock On the Institutional and Technological Determinants of Contract Labor: Evidence from a Trade Shock Pavel Chakraborty 1 Rahul Singh 2 Vidhya Soundararajan 3 1 Lancaster University 2 IIM Bangalore 3 IIM

More information

Impacts of Chinese Tariffs on Soybeans and other Ag Commodities and the Renegotiated NAFTA Agreement

Impacts of Chinese Tariffs on Soybeans and other Ag Commodities and the Renegotiated NAFTA Agreement Impacts of Chinese Tariffs on Soybeans and other Ag Commodities and the Renegotiated NAFTA Agreement Wallace Tyner Purdue University In collaboration with Farzad Taheripour, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe,

More information

Meeting of the Employment and Social Affairs Committee at the Ministerial Level. Building More Resilient and Inclusive Labour Markets 15 January, 2016

Meeting of the Employment and Social Affairs Committee at the Ministerial Level. Building More Resilient and Inclusive Labour Markets 15 January, 2016 Meeting of the Employment and Social Affairs Committee at the Ministerial Level Building More Resilient and Inclusive Labour Markets 15 January, 2016 Introduction We are living and working in the midst

More information

Technology Transfer, Welfare, and Factor Prices

Technology Transfer, Welfare, and Factor Prices Technology Transfer, Welfare, and Factor Prices Yuntong Wang and Xiaopeng Yin June, 200 Corresponding author: Department of Economics, University of Windsor, Windsor, Ontario, Canada N9B 3P4; Tel. : 59253-3000

More information

Growing Agriculture at 41Degrees South. Mark Allison Launceston, Tasmania 4 March 2019

Growing Agriculture at 41Degrees South. Mark Allison Launceston, Tasmania 4 March 2019 Growing Agriculture at 41Degrees South Mark Allison Launceston, Tasmania 4 March 2019 Agenda Outlook for Australian Agriculture The Way Forward for Australian Agriculture Outlook for Tasmanian Agriculture

More information

Impact of China's WTO Accession on Farmers' Welfare

Impact of China's WTO Accession on Farmers' Welfare From the SelectedWorks of Jacylyn Yujun SHI 石玉君 March, 2004 Impact of China's WTO Accession on Farmers' Welfare Jacylyn Y.J. Shi Available at: https://works.bepress.com/yujunshi/8/ China s s WTO Accession:

More information

Statement by H.E. Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo Secretary General Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to the Intergovernmental Group

Statement by H.E. Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo Secretary General Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to the Intergovernmental Group Statement by H.E. Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo Secretary General Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty Four (G-24) Meeting of Ministers and Governors

More information

GLOBALIZATION AND SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY THE FORESTRY & WOOD INDUSTRY ON THE MOVE Tripartite meeting, Geneva, September 2001

GLOBALIZATION AND SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY THE FORESTRY & WOOD INDUSTRY ON THE MOVE Tripartite meeting, Geneva, September 2001 GLOBALIZATION AND SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY THE FORESTRY & WOOD INDUSTRY ON THE MOVE Tripartite meeting, Geneva, 17-21 September 2001 Peter Poschen & Mattias Lövgren Forestry and Wood Industries, ILO International

More information

Introduction. 1 Lucas (2004), last paragraph.

Introduction. 1 Lucas (2004), last paragraph. Introduction Increasing inequality within countries and globalization are two of the defining economic trends of the last three decades. Thus, it is only natural to ask whether these phenomena are causally

More information

Table II International changes in the number of employees in the manufacturing industry

Table II International changes in the number of employees in the manufacturing industry Section 4 International opinions concerning inclusive growth The OECD has conducted an analysis 203 that indicated the presence of sufficient evidence that people on the lower half of the income ladder

More information

Decomposing value chains within Swedish multinationals

Decomposing value chains within Swedish multinationals 0 Decomposing value chains within Swedish multinationals Kent Eliasson*, Pär Hansson** and Markus Lindvert*** May 30 2017 Abstract Multinational enterprises (MNE) have been highly instrumental in the processes

More information

Productivity, Output, and Employment. Chapter 3. Copyright 2009 Pearson Education Canada

Productivity, Output, and Employment. Chapter 3. Copyright 2009 Pearson Education Canada Productivity, Output, and Employment Chapter 3 Copyright 2009 Pearson Education Canada This Chapter We will now shift from economic measurement to economic analysis In this lecture we will discuss: Production

More information

Overview of the EU industrial sector

Overview of the EU industrial sector Overview of the EU industrial sector This note describes the current state of EU industry based on a selection of indicators. Aiming to feed into the discussion on the future industrial strategy, the note

More information

CHAPTER 2 FOUNDATIONS OF MODERN TRADE THEORY: COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE

CHAPTER 2 FOUNDATIONS OF MODERN TRADE THEORY: COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE CHAPTER 2 FOUNDATIONS OF MODERN TRADE THEORY: COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE MULTIPLE CHOICE 1. The mercantilists would have objected to: a. Export promotion policies initiated by the government b. The use of tariffs

More information

2018 skills forecast Malta

2018 skills forecast Malta EN 2018 skills forecast Malta 1. Employment outlook After a strong increase in 2011-16, employment growth up to 2030 is expected to remain strong, as shown in Figure 1. Employment growth is expected to

More information

The World Cotton Situation * Terry Townsend, Executive Director Armelle Gruere, Statistician. Projections to 2020

The World Cotton Situation * Terry Townsend, Executive Director Armelle Gruere, Statistician. Projections to 2020 INTERNATIONAL COTTON ADVISORY COMMITTEE 1629 K Street NW, Suite 72, Washington, DC 26 USA Telephone (22) 463-666 Fax (22) 463-695 e-mail secretariat@icac.org The World Cotton Situation * Terry Townsend,

More information

Trade as an Engine of Growth From Ricardo to 21 st Century

Trade as an Engine of Growth From Ricardo to 21 st Century Trade as an Engine of Growth From Ricardo to 21 st Century Enhancing the contribution of PTAs to inclusive and equitable trade: Islamic Republic of Iran 13-15 August 2017 Tehran Workshop outline Trade,

More information

ROUTINE JOBS, EMPLOYMENT AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION IN GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS

ROUTINE JOBS, EMPLOYMENT AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION IN GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS ROUTINE JOBS, EMPLOYMENT AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION IN GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS (Preliminary & Incomplete) Luca Marcolin, OECD (STI/EAS) Sébastien Miroudot, OECD (TAD/TSD) Mariagrazia Squicciarini, OECD (STI/EAS)

More information

China: growth, urbanisation and mineral resource demand

China: growth, urbanisation and mineral resource demand : growth, urbanisation and mineral resource demand Jin Liu and Tony McDonald 1 Over recent decades, has experienced rapid economic growth and a related sharp increase in its rate of urbanisation. The speed

More information

THE IMPACTS OF CHINESE GROWTH ON LATIN AMERICA. Professor Rhys Jenkins University of East Anglia Norwich, UK

THE IMPACTS OF CHINESE GROWTH ON LATIN AMERICA. Professor Rhys Jenkins University of East Anglia Norwich, UK THE IMPACTS OF CHINESE GROWTH ON LATIN AMERICA Professor Rhys Jenkins University of East Anglia Norwich, UK $ million The Growth of Latin America-China Economic Relations Exports to China 90000 80000 70000

More information

(IX) Robots and Jobs. Bocconi University, 2017/18. Most of the sentences are simply quoted from Autor (2015)

(IX) Robots and Jobs. Bocconi University, 2017/18. Most of the sentences are simply quoted from Autor (2015) (IX) Robots and Jobs Bocconi University, 2017/18 Most of the sentences are simply quoted from Autor (2015) Anxiety over automation Anxiety in the past We are being afflicted with a new disease of which

More information

The Productivity of Unskilled Labor in Multinational Subsidiaries from Di erent Sources

The Productivity of Unskilled Labor in Multinational Subsidiaries from Di erent Sources The Productivity of Unskilled Labor in Multinational Subsidiaries from Di erent Sources Ben Li Department of Economics, University of Colorado at Boulder Tel: 720-475-6493 Fax: 303-492-8960 E-mail: guanyi.li@colorado.edu

More information

Archimedean Upper Conservatory Economics, October 2016

Archimedean Upper Conservatory Economics, October 2016 Multiple Choice Identify the choice that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1. The point on a business cycle when real gross domestic product stops rising and begins falling is a(n):

More information

Technology and Jobs in the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Technology and Jobs in the Fourth Industrial Revolution Technology and Jobs in the Fourth Industrial Revolution Melanie Arntz ZEW Mannheim & University of Heidelberg Britta Matthes IAB Nuremberg Terry Gregory ZEW Mannheim Ulrich Zierahn ZEW Mannheim Florian

More information

Three African Futures. John Page The Brookings Institution University of Nevada at Las Vegas 7 April 2014

Three African Futures. John Page The Brookings Institution University of Nevada at Las Vegas 7 April 2014 Three African Futures John Page The Brookings Institution University of Nevada at Las Vegas 7 April 2014 The Next Frontier? Africa has become the new frontier market Africa is the world s fastest-growing

More information

LNG in the Asia Pacific

LNG in the Asia Pacific 2016/EWG52/WKSP1/004 LNG in the Asia Pacific Submitted by: APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Workshop Moscow, Russia 18 October 2016 APERC Workshop at EWG52 Moscow, Russia, 18 October, 2016 3-2.

More information

Globalization, Job Tasks and the Occupational Structure of Firms: Implications for job polarization

Globalization, Job Tasks and the Occupational Structure of Firms: Implications for job polarization Globalization, Job Tasks and the Occupational Structure of Firms: Implications for job polarization Paris, June 2018 Fredrik Heyman Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN), Stockholm and Lund

More information

THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF IT, SOFTWARE, AND THE MICROSOFT ECOSYSTEM ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF IT, SOFTWARE, AND THE MICROSOFT ECOSYSTEM ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Addendum THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF IT, SOFTWARE, AND THE MICROSOFT ECOSYSTEM ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY METHODOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS Global Headquarters: 5 Speen Street Framingham, MA 01701 USA P.508.872.8200 F.508.935.4015

More information

Original citation: Michaels, Guy and Van Reenen, John (2010) The shrinking middle. CentrePiece Magazine, 15 (2). pp

Original citation: Michaels, Guy and Van Reenen, John (2010) The shrinking middle. CentrePiece Magazine, 15 (2). pp Guy Michaels and John Van Reenen The shrinking middle Article (Accepted version) (Unrefereed) Original citation: Michaels, Guy and Van Reenen, John (2) The shrinking middle. CentrePiece Magazine, 15 (2).

More information

The Impact of LNG Export Expansion in QLD With special emphasis on the effects of increased gas prices

The Impact of LNG Export Expansion in QLD With special emphasis on the effects of increased gas prices Centre of Policy Studies Working Paper No. G-250 November 2014 The Impact of LNG Export Expansion in QLD With special emphasis on the effects of increased gas prices Philip D. Adams Centre of Policy Studies,

More information

Trade and Technology: Recent Developments and Distributional Effects in Developing Countries

Trade and Technology: Recent Developments and Distributional Effects in Developing Countries G24 Special Workshop on Growth and Reducing Inequality Geneva, 5 6 September 2017 Session 2: Trade, technology and labour markets Trade and Technology: Recent Developments and Distributional Effects in

More information

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 10th MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON COMMODITIES AND DEVELOPMENT 25-26 April 2018, Geneva Value addition in renewable energy sector and its implications

More information

ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2018 Theme: Resilience and Growth in A Changing World. 25 May 2018, Hanoi

ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2018 Theme: Resilience and Growth in A Changing World. 25 May 2018, Hanoi ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2018 Theme: Resilience and Growth in A Changing World 25 May 2018, Hanoi 1 Macroeconomic Prospects and Challenges 2 Theme: Resilience and Growth in a Changing World 2

More information

DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL SEABORNE TRADE

DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL SEABORNE TRADE 1 DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL SEABORNE TRADE In 2015, world gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 2.5 per cent, the same rate as in 2014. Diverging individual country performances unfolded against

More information

Innovation, Technology and Inclusive Economic Growth:

Innovation, Technology and Inclusive Economic Growth: Innovation, Technology and Inclusive Economic Growth: Presentation to the Queen s International Institute on Social Policy DATE Overview 1. Tension Between Technological Innovation + Inclusive Economic

More information

A decade of oil demand

A decade of oil demand A decade of oil demand World oil demand Eni has recently published the thirteenth edition of the 2014 World Oil and Gas Review, the annual statistical review on the world oil and gas market and the refining

More information

Helping Infant Economies Grow: Foundations of Trade Policies for Developing Countries

Helping Infant Economies Grow: Foundations of Trade Policies for Developing Countries Helping Infant Economies Grow: Foundations of Trade Policies for Developing Countries By BRUCE GREENWALD AND JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ* Conventional wisdom has it that trade enhances economic efficiency and thus

More information

Meat and Meat products: price and trade update Issue 3 November Meat and Meat products. Price and Trade Update: November

Meat and Meat products: price and trade update Issue 3 November Meat and Meat products. Price and Trade Update: November Issue 3 November 2014 Weekly Newsletter Meat and Meat products Price and Trade Update Export prices remain at historic highs Meat and Meat products Price and Trade Update: November 2014 1 The FAO Meat

More information

Enhancing Productivity Growth. Philippe Aghion

Enhancing Productivity Growth. Philippe Aghion Enhancing Productivity Growth Philippe Aghion Basic questions How to enhance productivity growth in advanced and in emerging market economies? Schumpeterian growth theory Long-run growth driven by innovations

More information

DAIRY AND DAIRY PRODUCTS

DAIRY AND DAIRY PRODUCTS 3. COMMODITY SNAPSHOTS Market situation DAIRY AND DAIRY PRODUCTS International dairy prices started to increase in the last half of 2016, with butter and whole milk powder (WMP) accounting for most of

More information

THE NEXT-11 AND THE BRICS: ARE THEY THE FUTURE MARKETS FOR AGRIFOOD TRADE?

THE NEXT-11 AND THE BRICS: ARE THEY THE FUTURE MARKETS FOR AGRIFOOD TRADE? THE NEXT-11 AND THE BRICS: ARE THEY THE FUTURE MARKETS FOR AGRIFOOD TRADE? CATPRN Trade Policy Brief 2012-03 December 2012 Alexander Cairns Karl D. Meilke Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource

More information

Meeting of G20 Ministers of Trade April 2012, Mexico. Trade, Growth and Jobs Discussion Note 2

Meeting of G20 Ministers of Trade April 2012, Mexico. Trade, Growth and Jobs Discussion Note 2 Meeting of G20 Ministers of Trade 19-20 April 2012, Mexico Trade, Growth and Jobs Discussion Note 2 Introduction 1. Over the course of the last half century, the global expansion of trade has reshaped

More information

Comparative Advantage and Benefits of Trade

Comparative Advantage and Benefits of Trade Supporting Teachers: Inspiring Students Economics Revision Focus: 2004 A2 Economics Comparative Advantage and Benefits of tutor2u (www.tutor2u.net) is the leading free online resource for Economics, Business

More information

Learning by Trading and the Returns to Human Capital in Developing Countries

Learning by Trading and the Returns to Human Capital in Developing Countries Public Disclosure Authorized Learning by Trading and the Returns to Human Capital in Developing Countries Christopher A. Pissarides Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure

More information

Chapter 11: Industry. The Cultural Landscape: An Introduction to Human Geography

Chapter 11: Industry. The Cultural Landscape: An Introduction to Human Geography Chapter 11: Industry The Cultural Landscape: An Introduction to Human Geography Origin and Diffusion of industry The Industrial Revolution Industry = manufacturing of goods in a factory Shift from cottage

More information

Chapter 3. Productivity Output and the Demand and Supply of Labour. Copyright 2009 Pearson Education Canada

Chapter 3. Productivity Output and the Demand and Supply of Labour. Copyright 2009 Pearson Education Canada Chapter 3 Productivity Output and the Demand and Supply of Labour Copyright 2009 Pearson Education Canada A bit of a review What have we covered so far: A broad brush picture of what some key variables

More information

3-2. LNG in the Asia-Pacific

3-2. LNG in the Asia-Pacific APERC Workshop at EWG52 Moscow, Russia, 18 October, 2016 3-2. LNG in the Asia-Pacific Favoring trade and rational market development Kirsten Smith Researcher, APERC Report Highlights Report Highlights

More information

Introduction. What is country international competitiveness? Introduction 26/10/2016

Introduction. What is country international competitiveness? Introduction 26/10/2016 What is country international competitiveness? Rodolfo Helg, 2016 Introduction Competitiveness is a highly utilized term for defining the economic status of a country: thousand of time in the last 10 years

More information

International sourcing and employment effects a micro data linking approach

International sourcing and employment effects a micro data linking approach International sourcing and employment effects a micro data linking approach 8 International sourcing and employment effects a micro data linking approach 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Literature review on international

More information

Trade Adjustment Costs in Developing Countries: Impacts, Determinants and Policy Responses. Bernard Hoekman Guido Porto (Eds.)

Trade Adjustment Costs in Developing Countries: Impacts, Determinants and Policy Responses. Bernard Hoekman Guido Porto (Eds.) Trade Adjustment Costs in Developing Countries: Impacts, Determinants and Policy Responses Bernard Hoekman Guido Porto (Eds.) Objective Why is this important? p p a p w a b c Q Objective Why is this important?

More information

Lesson 10: Specific-Factors Model (continued)

Lesson 10: Specific-Factors Model (continued) International trade in the global economy 60 hours II Semester Luca Salvatici luca.salvatici@uniroma3.it Lesson 10: Specific-Factors Model (continued) 1 1 Specific-Factors Model The Home Country Opportunity

More information