Trade and Inequality. Clausen Conference on Global Economic Issues 2017 Bob Koopman Chief Economist, World Trade Organization
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1 Trade and Inequality Clausen Conference on Global Economic Issues 2017 Bob Koopman Chief Economist, World Trade Organization
2 Context Trade has come under increasing fire in some developed countries Mixed views about particular trade agreements and trading relationships Attitudes in developing countries more favorable to trade Reaction to trade is part of a reaction to globalization which also encompasses technology, migration, finance, etc. Many people believe that the current system is not working for them Indeed, while many are doing well, some are being left behind Within country income inequality is rising in many economies (US, UK, Canada, Australia, Germany, France) In some countries, whole regions are left behind
3 Closeness = Similarity in trade structure Closeness = Similarity in trade structure Trade in the last 35 years? Global convergence Systemic relevance in the global trade Systemic relevance in the global trade Source: Latin America and the Rising South, World Bank. Calculations are based on data from the Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS). 3
4 But increasing sub-national divergence? Highly import-exposed regions Ruhr area Coal & steel Südwestpfalz Textiles and shoes Oberfranken Toys, consumer electronics Highly export-oriented regions Lower Bavaria, Stuttgart, Allgäu car parts Eastern Germany Much smaller manufacturing sector overall Cars & smaller impacts of trade, lower geographical variation
5 Or Autor, Dorn and Hanson in US
6 WTO WTR 2017 Looks at trade and technology and examines how they are affecting labor markets. It argues that: trade and technological progress are the most important drivers of economic advances; overall they raise incomes and contribute to prosperity; inevitably, however, these advances are accompanied by economic change and upheaval in job markets; there should be no trade-off between openness or technology and inclusiveness and the challenge is to achieve more of all three. Trade and technology raise the demand for skilled workers, which tends to raise the skill premium. Impact on inequality depends on distribution of skills in the economy Trade itself is not the problem, but rather can with the right supporting policies be part of the solution
7 Unemployment rates do not exhibit any longterm trends. The incidence of unemployment varies greatly across and within regions.
8 Average real wages have continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace since the Great Recession, across most countries over the past 10 years. G20 emerging G20
9 The share of employment in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors continues to decline or stagnate in developed countries and in an increasing number of developing countries. The share of overall employment in services continues to grow in both developed and developing economies. Services Industry
10 The share of middle-skill occupations in total employment has declined in developed economies and a number of developing countries, while the shares of high- and low-skilled occupations have increased.
11 The skill premium, defined as the ratio between the wages of skilled and unskilled workers, has increased across several developed and developing countries, while it has remained constant or decreased in others. China India US Argentina Indonesia Spain Chile Mexico Brazil
12 Skill Premium An increase in the demand for skills due to trade or technological change will not necessarily translate into an increase in the skill premium. In Latin America for instance, there is evidence that trade raises the demand for skills but the skill premium has decreased. Suggests that other forces (supply) have more than offset the likely positive effect of trade. Depends on the response of the supply of skills - trade and technology will either raise the skill premium or raise the share of skilled employment or a combination of both. Given that trade and technology also affect prices, one would need to consider the effects of trade or technology induced changes in both prices and wages on the distribution of real wages to get the complete story. There is some evidence that the price effect is favourable to lower wage workers.
13 Main drivers of labour market outcomes The diversity of outcomes across countries is in line with one of the main insights from labour economics which suggests that country-specific factors play an important role in explaining labour market outcomes. The impact of technology and trade needs to be assessed in the context of the other major factors shaping supply and demand for labour and their influence on wages and employment, including macroeconomic conditions, labour market institutions and mobility frictions.
14 Adjustment costs Workers who lose their jobs in declining sectors, in exposed regions are not always well equipped and well placed to access newly created jobs Because of various frictions which constrain the mobility of workers, adjustment costs can sometimes be significant. Examples of frictions include: skill-mismatch related frictions, geographic mobility frictions, institutions related frictions Recent cross-country empirical evidence suggests that on average obstacles to labour mobility are twice as high in developing countries as in developed countries
15 How does technological change affect labour markets? Aggregate effects Technological progress is the main source of economic growth, but it is also the main source of labour market change. New technologies can substitute for workers, but there are several mechanisms that can compensate their labour-saving impact. The overall effects on labour demand are, in principle, ambiguous. The empirical literature has generally found small and possibly even positive effects of technological change on aggregate labour demand and employment. There are, however, a few relevant exceptions, with some studies showing the negative effects on labour demand generated by technological change. A common theme in the literature is that, in developed and developing countries alike, the most relevant effects are on the structure, rather than on the level, of employment.
16 Effects on the composition of employment: SBTC Technological progress has contributed to a higher relative demand for skilled workers. In particular, the rapid diffusion of ICTs in the work place since the 1980s is consistent with an increase in the relative demand for skills because of complementarity between ICTs and skills. The development of skill-complementary technologies in most developed countries was itself partly driven by the rapid increase in the supply of skilled workers since the late 1960s. The skill-biased technical change (SBTC) hypothesis is largely confirmed for developed countries, in the form of a positive relationship between employment of skilled labour and various measures of technological innovation, such as the use of computers, R&D intensity, and the number of innovations and patents. The use of computers in the workplace has been the central force driving changes in the skill premium. For the US, computerization accounts for 60 per cent of the rise in the skill premium between 1984 and Evidence of skill-biased technological change exists also for some developing countries, especially when technological change is measured as embodied in imports and inward FDI.
17 Effects on the composition of employment: RBTC Technological change is correlated with employment polarization, because it affects routine activities (both manual and cognitive) more than non-routine activities, and routine activities are typically performed by middle-skilled workers. For developed countries, there is evidence that technological change has led to a lower relative demand for workers performing routine activities and consequently to employment polarization. There are however some exceptions. Some authors have found that industrial robots lead to skill upgrading rather than to employment polarization. Technological shocks in the US (measured as shocks in ICT capital) explain up to one-third of the observed decline in middle-skilled employment. In developing countries, the evidence that technological change is biased against routine employment is limited to very few countries.
18 How does trade affect labour markets? Aggregate effects Like technological change, trade brings overall gains Welfare Gains: Lower prices and thus higher real wages; larger product variety. Higher productivity: imports of cheaper inputs; specialization Generally both have much bigger compositional effects on employment than on the level of employment. Importers and exporters pay higher wages (around 30 per cent more) than firms focusing on the domestic market. Globally, millions of jobs depend on international trade. export-related jobs (up to 30 per cent in some countries), but imports support jobs also Empirically, trade actually increase even if just slightly overall employment. In the US, there is no nation-wide job losses from import competition. Some manufacturing jobs are lost in a given region or a city, other jobs are created elsewhere or in the services sector. ADH not general equilibrium, but concentrated regional and sectoral effects are important to understand and address.
19 Effects on the composition of employment Like technology, trade triggers changes Dynamics have been known since Hecksher-Ohlin Some regions, sectors, and individuals benefit from trade, others can lose without adequate policy responses. Adjustment costs have been underestimated, but still remain a small share of estimated gains. Recent evidence on the impact of China's import competition For example, in the US: in regions less exposed to import competition, employment developed favourably compared to employment in more exposed regions. Yet, trade explain up to 20-25% of the recent decline in US manufacturing jobs. This implies that other factors, such as technological change, explain over 75-80% of the decline in manufacturing jobs in the US.
20 Trade and skills Both trade and technology increase the demand for skilled workers relative to unskilled workers in all countries In advanced economies, the main channels appear to be specialization in skill-intensive activities, offshoring of routine tasks and increased innovative activity as a response to competition from low-cost exporters. In developing economies, the main channel appears to be technology diffusion through imports of capital goods, intermediate inputs and know-how. Higher demand for skills can translate into: an increase in the skill premium an increase in the share of skilled workers in employment polarization If trade raises the skill premium, it will affect wage inequality
21 Conclusion Adaptability and inclusiveness are not only essential to help societies and individuals realize the full benefits of technological progress and trade opening, they are also critical to maintain political support for these two important drivers of economic growth and development. More trade and more inclusive trade go together. While current concerns about globalization may have contributed to the slowing pace of global trade integration and structural reform, the inverse may also be true that the slowing pace of globalization has contributed to current concerns (growing popular discontent, rising social divisions, and greater geo-economic tensions). Adjusting to economic change is a global challenge that requires a global response. Even if many of today s labour market problems are traceable to domestic policy shortcomings, a failure to find answers can have global ramifications that affect all countries, as history has shown.
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