Economic Modelling: The Analyst Input-Output Module

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1 Economic Modelling: The Analyst Input-Output Module Regional Economic Development Branch, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs EDCO Conference February 9, 2017

2 Why are we Here 1. Provide a brief background on Analyst, EDAR, and introduce economic modelling through the Input-Output (I-O) module 2. Provide high-level considerations in use of the I-O tool 3. Demonstrate the I-O tool 4. Provide how and when clients can access the tool 2

3 What is Analyst?

4 Why OMAFRA has Invested in Economic Modelling Ontario s economic development organizations do not have cost effective access to economic modelling tools A better understanding of your economy Better informed decision making of where you should be dedicating your resources Attract and retain high-quality jobs Communicate the impact of different investments in your community 4

5 Economic Modelling Descriptive Predictive 5

6 Input-Output: Descriptive Reports 6

7 Regional Requirements Report Quantify the goods and services that a region requires from each industry, as well as the degree to which those requirements are met within the region. Question: Is the demand of the Food Manufacturing Industry being met within the Greater Golden Horseshoe? 7

8 Regional Requirements Report 8

9 Regional Requirements Report 9

10 Partnering for Regional Economic Prosperity

11 Data, Software & Consulting for Regional Economic Developers Who we re working with: 200+ Economic Development orgs 125 Workforce Development orgs Hundreds of postsecondary institutions (College & University) Fortune 500 companies Real estate, site selectors

It s in Our Name Economic Modelling Specialists,

Economist Jonathan Crapuchettes Justin Whear Kaleb

12 It s in Our Name Economic Modelling Specialists, Intl. I-O Data & Development Team: Dr. Hank Robison Co-founder and Senior Economist Dr. Kjell Christophersen Co-founder and Senior Economist Jonathan Crapuchettes Justin Whear Kaleb Trotter Lindsey Doolan Stephen Grammar Ashley Beauchamp Curtis Spencer

$The Importance of Multipliers to Regional Economies With only a fraction of the jobs, the innovation sector generates a disproportionate number of additional local jobs and therefore$ A healthy traded sector benefits the local economy directly, as it generates well-paid jobs, and indirectly as it creates additional jobs in the non-traded sector.

A healthy traded sector benefits the local economy directly, as it generates well-paid jobs, and indirectly as it creates additional jobs in the non-traded sector.

13 The Importance of Multipliers to Regional Economies With only a fraction of the jobs, the innovation sector generates a disproportionate number of additional local jobs and therefore profoundly shapes the local economy. A healthy traded sector benefits the local economy directly, as it generates well-paid jobs, and indirectly as it creates additional jobs in the non-traded sector. What is truly remarkable is that this indirect effect to the local economy is much larger than the direct effect. My research, based on an analysis of 11 million American workers in 320 metropolitan areas, shows that for each new high-tech job in a metropolitan area, five additional local jobs are created outside of high tech in the long run. Enrico Moretti

14 Why develop a regional Input-Output Model anyway?

15 28 Billion Calculations Great Scott Marty

Using Input-Output to Measure the Impact of Development Eastern Maine

jobs and earnings multipliers used to determine that new visitor and

result in over $26 million in sales at local businesses.

16 Using Input-Output to Measure the Impact of Development Eastern Maine Development Corporation, City of Bangor and Penobscot County Emsi sales, jobs and earnings multipliers used to determine that new visitor and facility spending generated by the arena and conference center will result in over $26 million in sales at local businesses., which will support 405 full and part-time jobs paying $9.7 million in wages to local workers annually.

17 Partnering for Prosperity and Closing the Skills Gap Partnership between: Regional EDC City of Decatur Richland Community College

18 Economic Modelling Descriptive Predictive 18

19 What you need to know about Input-Output modelling Data based on estimates, rather than observations 19

20 Works best in functional economic regions What you need to know about Input-Output modelling 20

21 What you need to know about Input-Output modelling Requires detailed knowledge about inputs 21

22 What you need to know about Input-Output modelling Model has potential to over- or under-state impacts 22

23 Input-Output: Predictive Reports 23

24 24 Input-Output Scenario: Gay Lea Teeswater Plant Expansion

25 Input-Output Scenario: Gay Lea Teeswater Plan Expansion Assumptions: Workers commute an average of 40 minutes to location Online: 80 jobs retained Dairy Product Production (NAICS: 3115) 25

26 Input-Output Scenario: Gay Lea Teeswater Plan Expansion 26

27 Input-Output Scenario: Gay Lea Teeswater Plan Expansion 27

28 Input-Output Scenario: Gay Lea Teeswater Plan Expansion 28

29 Input-Output Scenario: Gay Lea Teeswater Plan Expansion 29

30 Recap & Summary: What reports are available in Analyst I-O Descriptive: Regional Jobs, Wages, and Sales Regional Requirements Exports Table Industry Supply Chain Predictive: Regional Multipliers Input-Output Scenario 30

31 Next Steps Roll-out access in Spring 2017 February: OMAFRA/MNDM Advisors can provide data requests March: Available to all clients through Analyst Northern and Southern Ontario training Half-day training sessions Pilot Training (March 3, Guelph) Eastern Ontario (March 21, Kingston) Western & Northern Ontario (TBC) 31

32 Questions? Myles Buck, Ec.D Economic Development Specialist

Economic Modelling: The Analyst Input-Output Module

Economic Modelling: The Analyst Input-Output Module Regional Economic Development Branch, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs EDCO Conference February 9, 2017 Why are we Here 1. Provide