Glossary of Abbreviations

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2 Glossary of Abbreviations BTEA Back-to-Education Allowance BTWEA Back-to-Work Enterprise Allowance CSO Central Statistics Office DSP Department of Social Protection ESF European Social Fund EU European Union F Female FET Further Education and Training ICT Information and Communications Technology JA Jobseeker s Allowance JB Jobseeker s Benefit JSA Job Services Australia L (NFQ) Level LMETF Labour Market Education and Training Fund LTU Long-Term Unemployed M Male M1 Momentum 1 M2 Momentum 2 n Number NEET Not in Education, Employment or Training NFQ National Framework of Qualifications NYC National Youth Council OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development QNHS Quarterly National Household Survey QQAI Qualifications and Quality Assurance Ireland SLMRU Skills and Labour Market Research Unit SOLAS Seirbhísí Oideachais Leanúnaigh agus Scileanna (Further Education and Training Authority) UK United Kingdom Acknowledgements Exodea Europe Consulting Limited gratefully acknowledges the assistance and advice of SOLAS and the Momentum Programme Management Group in the development and implementation of this Programme Evaluation. We also thank all Agency representatives, Training Providers, Participants and all others who contributed their experiences of the Momentum Programme. Donagh MacArtain, and Bill Thorne December 2016 Convention Throughout this report the following convention is used to differentiate between the two iterations of the Momentum Programme. Momentum 1 (M1): Initial Programme Cycle commencing in November 2012, and concluding in December Momentum 2 (M2): Current Programme Cycle commencing in January 2015 and concluding in December Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc 2

3 Contents Glossary of Abbreviations... 2 Acknowledgements... 2 Convention Executive Summary Disruptive Intervention Programme Learning Momentum 2 Evaluation Context Momentum 2 Outcomes Analysis Momentum 2 Recommendations Policy Context Economic Outlook Employment Trends Employment Quality International Context Momentum 2 Design Improvements Evaluation Methodology Momentum 1: Long-Term Impact Momentum 1: Long-Term Impact Initial Survey Design Survey Findings Time Lag Participant Profile Information Programme Completion Status Current Employment Status Employment Duration Income Employability Impact Benefits and Unemployment Duration Momentum 2: Training Provider Perspective Introduction Overall Programme View Participants Agencies Project Delivery Momentum 2: Participant Perspective Participant Survey Approach Survey Response Profile Response Rate Engagement Incentive Responses by Theme Regional Distribution Participant Profile Participant Gender Profile Citizenship and Household Participant Age Profile Participant Educational Attainment Participant Unemployment Profile Unemployment within Families Training Experience Rating of Training Pre- and Post-Skills Acquisition Work Placement Access and Take-up...27 Experience of Placement Participant Progression Young People and Momentum Background Young People and Work Momentum 2: Learning from Momentum Survey Data Youth Participant Profile Training Placement Progression Momentum 2: Outcomes Data Quality and Transparency Data on Early Exits Employment Outcomes Overview Outcomes Data: Under 25 s Outcomes Data: Occupational Category Analysis Context Outcomes Employers Marginal Employment Delivery and Outcomes-Based Payment Model Test Bed Programming Recruitment Data Inter-Departmental Relationships Momentum and Young People Recommendations Strategic Approach: Recommendations Measureable Outcomes Inter-Departmental Coordination FET Sector Capacity Building Data Driven Decision Making Delivery and Job Outcomes Payment Model Transparency Shared Risk Engaging with Employers Marginal Employment Strategic Programme Future Programme Operations: Recommendations Induction Key Transition Points Momentum and Young People Data Collection Mixed Target Groups...45 Appendices...46 A1 Appendix 1: Participant Survey Questionnaire..47 A2 Appendix 2: Longitudinal Participant Survey...57 A3 Appendix 3: Vacancy Overview Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 3

4 Tables Table 1 Work Experience by Programme Theme...23 Table 2 Participant Age Profile...25 Table 3 Educational Attainment Profile...25 Table 4 - Participant Unemployment Profile...26 Table 5 Work Skills Acquisition...27 Table 6 Participant Progression...28 Table 7 - Employment Type...28 Table 8 Momentum 2 Early Exits...32 Table 9 - Overview of Employment Outcomes (September 2016)...33 Table 10 - Job Outcomes by Age and Category (Aug. 2016)...35 Figures Figure 1 - Evaluation Logic Model...14 Figure 2 Momentum 2 Programme Gender Profile...24 Figure 3 Momentum 2 Survey Gender Profile...24 Figure 4 Participant Questionnaire...47 Figure 5 Longitudinal Participant Questionnaire Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 4

5 1 Executive Summary Momentum funded the provision of free education and training projects to support over 12,500 jobseekers (who had been unemployed for twelve months or more) to gain skills and access employment opportunities in growing sectors of the economy. The programme was designed to help eligible jobseekers by providing access to a range of quality training opportunities that linked directly to job vacancies being offered by local employers. Within the programme, the participants were offered training accredited to relevant industry standards and/ or the National Framework of Qualifications (NFQ), Levels 4-6 followed by supported work placement. Momentum was delivered through two programme iterations. The first (Momentum 1) ran over the period , and the second (Momentum 2) commenced in 2014 and will conclude in The programme performance of Momentum 1 was evaluated in December , and the second iteration was modified to build on the strengths whilst addressing the challenges of the original model. 1.1 Disruptive Intervention In designing the Momentum intervention model, SOLAS focussed on the imperative of assisting the long-term unemployed 2 to find a job. Momentum was put forward as an innovative intervention for those who had fallen victim to the economic crash but who had previously been employed; many had never experienced unemployment before. Momentum developed an entirely new approach, a delivery-outcomes-based funding model. This model focused providers on the need to provide skills training, identified as being in demand within the local economy, married with a beneficial period of placement to primarily achieve employment, or failing that, progression to a higher level relevant qualification. The programme was designed to provide a system of clear incentives for training providers to deliver results. This was achieved by providing a financial premium to providers who helped those participants that were demonstrably furthest from the local labour market. The training payment was based on success for the participant in skills development, work placement experience, and a minimum period of at least two consecutive months employment following the work placement. Within the programme envelope, training providers were encouraged to innovate in all aspects of their offerings. With these as required outcomes, it was necessary to define the indicators that accurately measure these. Thus, the programme developed a robust data-collection and measurement system. This had many advantages, including the ability to accurately monitor the relative success of the Defined as the number of people with continuous periods of unemployment extending for a year or longer. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 5

6 intervention in achieving its core aims, and the linked capacity to create an equitable and efficient payment by results model involving training providers. 1.2 Programme Learning Momentum 2 included the following improvements over Momentum 1: - Strengthened relationship with the Department of Social Protection: DSP positively engaged with SOLAS on the structure of, and recruitment to the projects. This level of commitment was important in overcoming recruitment challenges; Additional Induction Module: An additional Induction element was added to all Momentum projects. It was expected to lead to greater motivation to complete the project and will improve the client s commitment to full engagement; Increased Work Placement Focus: A contractual requirement was included in Momentum to ensure that all the participants are assigned a period of work placement; and Increased Employment payment: Almost one-third of the per-participant payment was attached to the achievement of an employment outcome; this was an increase of 10% on Momentum Momentum 2 Evaluation Context In addition to programme changes made to address the recommendations emerging from the experience of delivering the predecessor programme, Momentum 2 was delivered in an economic environment that was very different from that which prevailed at the time of Momentum 1. Increased employment and decreasing unemployment, and long-term unemployment had a significant impact on the general profile of the programme participants. The participant profile in Momentum 2 had reverted to the more typical LTU characteristics, as evidenced by people presenting with lower skills levels and relatively longer duration of unemployment. As with its predecessor, Momentum 2 was designed to assist 6,500 long-term unemployed people to access relevant training that would lead them towards employment in growth sectors of the economy. The total budget for the provision, like that of Momentum 1, was 20 million. The evaluation was undertaken within a three-part framework. The first part involved the design and implementation of a participant survey using an amalgam of survey techniques. The second part involved the development of an evidence-based report on the impact of the improvements against the goal of getting participants back into the work force. The third part of the evaluation provided a contemporaneous study on the longitudinal impact of Momentum 1 with particular regard to the former participant s reflections on the impact of the programme and their current employment status. Participant Profile Of the 6,134 participants that engaged with Momentum 2, males predominate (74 percent) in line with their proportional representation amongst the long-term unemployed. Young participants comprised of almost one-third of all participants, however, in this cohort the gender balance ratio comprised of 69 percent men and 31 percent women. The observed educational attainment profile accords with the patterns observed within the literature. There is clear evidence of lower levels of educational attainment and skills amongst long-term unemployed men that can only impede access to the labour market. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 6

7 1.4 Momentum 2 Outcomes Employment Outcomes After their engagement with Momentum 2, a total of 34 percent of participants had obtained fulltime employment, and a further 11 percent had obtained part-time employment. This is positive when viewed against recent research showing that while short-term unemployed have re-found work to reported levels in the 50 percent range, those who have been stuck on LTU were exiting to employment at rates closer to 10 percent 3. The results are more than those achieved in the first Programme, where 24 percent of participants had obtained full-time employment, and 6 percent had obtained part-time employment. The outcomes from Momentum 2 record that a validated further education outcome was achieved by 4 percent of participants, this being slightly below that achieved under Momentum 1. Age Group Considerations The performance of the Momentum 2 programme for participants under 25 years of age was encouraging in that it was relatively consistent with outcomes for those over 25 years of age. Those of over 25 years of age were found to be a little more likely to progress to full-time employment, but only by a factor of four points. This situation was reversed for progression to part-time employment for those of under 25 years of age. Progression rates within each age cohort were seen to be similar, although amongst those aged under 25 years, a relatively small proportion were enrolled on the Job Bridge Programme. The rates recorded by Momentum 2 compare favourably to similar outcomes-based labour-market interventions in both the UK and Australia. Gender The general patterns observed in Momentum 2 are consistent with those found in Momentum 1, particularly with respect to a feeling of greater positivity being shown by women about engaging in training and placement. To this can be added the findings from the Two-Years-On longitudinal survey, where the preliminary data suggests that women have engaged in employment for longer than one year after completing the programme. All this points to the need for future interventions in this field to focus on addressing the challenge presented by the relatively poor employment access and engagement rates that are more typical for long-term unemployed men. Occupational Profile The evidence finds that young people are most likely to progress directly into the lower skill occupations, such as tourism related businesses and the construction sector. Two employment sectors, tourism and other services, accounted between them for 76 percent of full-time employment, and for almost 80 percent of the part-time jobs accruing to young people. It is accepted, however, that there are more entry-level jobs available in these sectors. For those of over 25 years of age, the two high employment intake sectors were found to be ICT and Transport, Distribution and Logistics. 3 Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service. Labour Market Synopsis. Issue 4. Labour Market Programmes (2014). Department of Public Expenditure and Reform. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 7

8 Long-Term Impact The longitudinal impact of Momentum 1 on the experiences of participants references a period approximately Two-Years-On from their involvement with Momentum 1. Whilst the employment figure (30 percent) is broadly similar to the post-programme evaluation it is interesting that a large proportion indicate short-duration (<1 year) employment even though 75 percent of respondents have been more than three years out of the Momentum 1 programme. This is worthy of further analysis as employment churn, where people experience cycles of employment and unemployment with relatively little change in personal income levels may be a factor 4. 4 It is noted, however, that the response rate was relatively low. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 8

9 1.5 Analysis Across the recruitment, training, placement and employment phases the evidence shows that higher outcomes have been achieved in Momentum 2 compared to Momentum 1. The programme had particularly success in assisting young people to access employment. Delivery and Employment Outcomes Model Momentum achieved success as a disruptive intervention to the long-term unemployment circumstances following the economic crash of Momentum 2 has shown the capacity of the state to develop and implement a verifiable, outcomes-based labour-market activation intervention. Delivering more than 12,000 places within a shared-risk model of state funding has implications for the general training and employment supports sector, and may have even wider application across other national funding streams. Data Evidenced Decision-Making The data evidenced delivery and outcome reporting of Momentum has fundamentally disrupted the traditional paradigm underpinning training programmes in Ireland. The employment outcomes reported in Momentum 2 are completely verifiable because there is a clear record linking the participant to the training provider, and ultimately to the employer. This is a level of data integrity that underpins the disruptive innovation of the Momentum approach. It is to be celebrated as creating the standard for future labour market interventions, where reporting standards have historically been more subjective and driven by the need to retrospectively conform to traditional indicator models. Employers The Momentum approach has facilitated a positive relationship between participating employers and training providers. This is an important outcome of the programme, and has created a crucial structural linkage with employers to provide real work for the long-term unemployed. Participant Recruitment Recruitment proved to be a difficult process despite significantly improved processes and systems amongst all stakeholders. It is worth remembering that the recruitment model is predicated on developing waitlists of eligible clients in local DSP offices, a process that is designed to ensure equity and negate the risk of cherry picking the best candidates. Although 13,500 were waitlisted for Momentum 2 the starting number less than half that figure. In addition the process took double the six months that was initially planned. Whilst employment circumstances have significantly improved over the recent past quarters, there are still over 140,000 people registered as long-term unemployed in Ireland. In this context, an allocation of 6,500 places to the Momentum programme remains both highly relevant and appropriate. Young People The Momentum experience has worked particularly well for young people, including those previously not in employment, education, and training. The innovative approaches adopted by the training providers, coupled with the deliberate policy of mixing the age profile of Momentum training groups, resulted in a more appropriate engagement environment, as evidenced by the young participants. In this regard, Momentum has demonstrably provided a pathway to real jobs to a cohort that is a constant focus of national concern in terms of engagement and sustainable futures. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 9

10 1.6 Momentum 2 Recommendations Strategic Implementation Concerns The Momentum approach highlights the importance of data driven decision-making. The learning from Momentum 1 gave rise to a series of changes (induction, increased focus on employment, placement responsibility on providers) that underpin the clearly improved results for Momentum 2 with what was arguably a harder to reach cohort. 1. Measureable Outcomes: Retain and develop the model of delivery and outcomes-based payments to incentivise innovation and efficiency in the training and skills sector. Now that the essential framework of the model has been tested there is value in moving it into the Education and Training Board training centres. This should involve the continuation of a strong management and support function delivered through SOLAS. 2. Inter-Departmental Coordination: The key properties of the model that have been identified and should be widely promoted include: multi-level partnering, shared responsibility, divesting control, sharing of data across organisations so that information systems can communicate. 3. Data Evidenced Decision-Making: Data evidenced decisions clearly lead to greater success. The Momentum approach is an innovative model of strategic Programme design and operation, and should be implemented at a national level. 4. Delivery and Job Outcomes Payment Model: The payment model should be promoted for active labour market Programmes. To assist the long-term unemployed, it should always reflect a combination of real-world skills and employment outcomes. The prevalence of a lowskill profile amongst the long-term unemployed would seem to increase the relative importance of appropriate, jobs driven, certified (and hence transferable) skills development. 5. Transparency: Momentum provides a clear pathway that identifies resources and relates these to the outcomes of the programme. It establishes a new benchmark for outcomes-based transparency in the training and skills environment. This approach is transferable, and should become a standard. 6. Shared Risk: Momentum is a strategic programme framed within a greater risk-taking environment. It is important to constantly calibrate the shared risk profile to optimise the balance between investment, return and results. 7. Employers: A model for positive interaction between the training sector and employers has been developed and successfully implemented. Private and public training providers have demonstrated the capacity for achieving real' employment outcomes. This capacity must be retained within the training provider sector. 8. Marginal Employment: It is too early to link skills development with sustained employment, but questions that should be addressed through further research and include: - Does the Momentum approach facilitate new entry into the labour market? Does the Momentum approach contribute to maintaining employment through enhanced skills development? Does the Momentum approach facilitate moving beyond the types of jobs associated with employment churn? Does the Momentum programme approach contribute to access to the social, economic and cultural benefits associated with career employment? 9. Strategic Programme Future: The Momentum approach should be continued to ensure that the enhanced capacity of the public and private sector to deliver programmes with equitably shared risks. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 10

11 Operational Recommendations 1. Induction: It is important to focus on induction as an integral part of the training and placement phase by focussing on the goal of job outcomes. The training environment must provide the participant with supportive challenges, motivation, skills acquisition, confidence building, and teamwork experiences leading to a sense of security, belonging, esteem, realisation of potential and competence. 2. Transition: Greater attention must be focused on the transition from the training room to work placement. Within the structured payments model there is scope to build in a transition outcome' payment. 3. Young People: Momentum 2 has achieved real employment success for young people and at a time when interventions are challenged in this regard. The Momentum approach is, therefore, worthy of further development and a smaller allocation of places should continue to be made available. 4. Data Collection: Momentum has set new best practice standards for data collection. The model should develop a research capability to explore trends that emerge from the rich data stream being collected. 5. Integrated Learning: In the context of commitments made under the Youth Guarantee it is imperative to continue to learn from integration practices across all age cohorts. In general, young people should not be isolated by age streaming when there is clear evidence of mutual benefits arising from shared learning across all-age groups. 6. Sector Capacity: Momentum has facilitated the development of significant capacity to respond to employment crisis situations. It is important that this investment is maintained so that the capacity of the Further Education and Training sector is not lost. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 11

12 2 Policy Context The Evaluation of the first Momentum Programme contained a comprehensive desktop review of relevant policies and comparable Programme initiatives in the UK and Australia. This research is still current and an updated summary is provided below. The Momentum Programme is one of several labour market activation Programmes 5 that were incorporated into the Skills to Work initiative (skillstowork.ie). Skills to Work operated under the aegis of the Department of Social Protection (DSP) and was aimed at making it easier for jobseekers and employers to access the Government skills initiatives, and to encourage businesses to employ people that were on the Live Register. The Momentum Programme was the sole Skills to Work initiative that integrated structured training, work placement and confidence-building components, and that focused entirely on serving the needs of the long-term unemployed. The range and content of projects selected under Momentum 2 support the current Further Education and Training (FET) Strategy and the Action Plan for Jobs. The occupations are based on the Expert Group on Future Skills Needs Occupational Employment Forecasts. 2.1 Economic Outlook The situation facing participants in Momentum 2 was more positive than that pertaining at the time of Momentum 1. Based on 2015 Q4 national indices, the Nevin Economic Research Institute 6 predict positive, but uncertain, economic growth trends to continue into 2016 and beyond. Employment growth is predicted to be positive, although there is a persistent note of concern at low wage growth and the relative levels of persistently high youth (19%) and long-term unemployment rates (55% of unemployed) Employment Trends There was an annual employment increase of 39,000 full-time and 5,200 part-time jobs to Q in Ireland. The Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) data suggests that the number of employees increased by 41,000 and the number of self-employed increased by 1,000. The relative decline of the rate of increase in self-employment (15,000 in Q4, 2013) is perhaps an accurate reflection of increased employment opportunity amongst job seekers, although it might also reflect concerns about the viability of self-employment. Sectoral analysis relating to the same time-period provides a more robust outlook on the elements of the economy where jobs are being created. This outlook was used to frame the Momentum 2 Programme design. 5 Springboard; JobBridge; JobsPlus; and Skillnets are the other Programmes in the initiative. 6 The Nevin Economic Research Institute. Quarterly Economic Observer. Spring Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 12

13 The rise in employment in the Accommodation and Food sector has been in the order of 10,000 jobs since Q Similarly, the trends in the Construction sector (+10,000 jobs) and in the Transport and Storage sector (+4,000 jobs) show recent increases to counter the significant job losses incurred since The increase in jobs in the Administrative and Support sector (+6,000) is perhaps a clear indication of the positive employment context; there had been a steady decline in employment of over 2,500 in this sector since Employment in the Information and Communications sector shows a modest increase of 4,000 jobs for the year, although in the Professional Services sector (+1,000), the increase is more marginal. The pattern for the Financial, Insurance and Real Estate Activities sector shows a drop in employment (2,000 jobs) in the year to Q4 2015, the only related sector showing a marginal negative trend Employment Quality The OECD has recently defined Quality of Employment as a measurement tool for defining the nature of employment 7. This is measured using a combination of factors, including earnings, job security and the quality of the working environment. The OECD Employment Outlook for Ireland notes that, on average, Irish jobs are generally of relatively good quality when compared with other countries. However, Ireland is ranked lower than the average OECD country in terms of labour market security. This reflects that high risk of job loss occurring as a result of the financial crisis. The OECD Report for 2016 notes that rising employment has created an upward pressure on real wages and the CSO Employment Survey 2015 estimates this at 1.2% year on year. Young people, the low-skilled, and temporary workers are considered to be at high-risk in terms of being limited to low-skills employment options. Many of those attending Momentum courses throughout the country face the risk of marginal employment. 2.2 International Context Internationally, two outcomes-based labour market activation initiatives provide relatively clear outcomes data for comparison with the Momentum Programme, although the national scale of the two Programmes is significant. The Work Programme is the newest of the UK National Employment Outcomes Programmes 8. It is a payment-for-results, welfare-to-work Programme that launched throughout the UK in June Job Services Australia (JSA) is the Australian Government s employment services system that supports job seekers and employers. Since 2009 it has provided opportunities for training, skills development, work experience and tailored assistance. There are clear similarities in approach that may reflect the learning in the planning and development phase of the Momentum Programme. In line with both comparison models Momentum provides a system of clear incentives for providers to deliver results. Both the Momentum Programme and the comparison models place a premium on helping participants who are furthest from the labour market. In each of the comparison models payment is part-based on a minimum time-period that the participant is required to maintain employment. In the case of the Momentum Programme this time period is two months consecutive employment of more than sixteen hours per week. 7 OECD Employment Outlook OECD Publishing. 8 National Audit Office, Comptroller and Auditor General Report. Department for Work and Pensions. The Work Programme. UK Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 13

14 Each model supports a wide range of participants, and there is freedom for service providers to innovate. They also all provide the capacity to focus resources into approaches that will be most beneficial. 2.3 Momentum 2 Design Improvements In response to the reports and reviews of previous iterations of the Programme, Momentum includes the following improvements: - Strengthened relationship with the Department of Social Protection: DSP positively engaged with SOLAS on the structure of, and recruitment to the projects. This level of commitment was important in overcoming recruitment challenges; Additional Induction Module: An additional Induction element was added to all Momentum projects. It was expected to lead to greater motivation to complete the project and will improve the client s commitment to full engagement; Increased Work Placement Focus: A contractual requirement was included in Momentum to ensure that all of the participants are assigned a period of work placement; and, Increased Employment payment: Almost one-third of the per-participant payment was attached to the achievement of an employment outcome; this was an increase of 10% on Momentum Evaluation Methodology The second iteration of the Momentum Programme was designed to assist 6,500 Long Term Unemployed (LTU) persons to obtain relevant training leading to employment in growth sectors of the Labour Market, at a total cost of provision of 20 million. It is based on a delivery/outcome model, where 70% of the fee is allocated to the delivery of the project and 30% of the fee is allocated to the achievement of the outcomes, paid employment or further education in a relevant sector. The evaluation of the Momentum 2 Programme is structured around a framework that describes the logical linkages between the Programme resources, activities, outputs, participants, stakeholders, and the short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term outcomes. Figure 1 - Evaluation Logic Model A variety of research methods have been employed in the development of this evaluation report. These include the following: - A desk review of relevant SOLAS Momentum 2 Programme background documents including the relevant SOLAS report Programme Evaluation: Momentum Programme for Projects under 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 14

15 the Labour Market Education and Training Fund (December 2014); relevant policies, Programme records and reports; A comprehensive Participant Survey designed to facilitate the confidential gathering of information in terms of demographic profile, the induction module, training, placement and preliminary outcomes data; and Strategic consultations with the Momentum 2 Management Team were used to discuss the emergent findings of the evaluation, and to identify the lessons learnt from the implementation of the Programme Momentum 1: Long-Term Impact The Long-Term Impact Assessment was scheduled to provide a contemporaneous study of the longitudinal impact of Momentum 1, to consider the following: - Participant s current employment status; The impact of the Programme on the employability of the participants; Financial considerations in terms of wages and social welfare benefits; and Participant perception of the Programme. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 15

16 3 Momentum 1: Long-Term Impact The Two-Years-On survey report takes a longitudinal view building upon the evaluation of the Momentum 1 Programme conducted by SOLAS during the period March 2013 to December Initial Survey Design A significant finding of the evaluation report Programme Evaluation: Momentum Programme for Projects under the Labour Market Education and Training Fund (December 2014) was that hard results data that can be objectively verified facilitates transparency, and amounts to a public good. This longitudinal report adds to the evaluation process by seeking to verify the medium-term sustainability of job outcomes and the post-programme experience of those who engaged with the Momentum Programme between 2013 and The structure and content of the Two-Years On longitudinal survey was designed to be compatible with the information gathered in the original Programme evaluation. A key difference is that it is based on self-reported outcomes, whereas the post-programme report details outcomes reported by providers, verified for payment by SOLAS staff, and subsequently confirmed in a DSP analysis of claimant information. SurveyMonkey Pro was used as the platform for implementing the on-line Two-Year-On survey. 3.2 Survey Findings A key challenge in conducting most long-term studies is maintaining the links with the population from which the initial short-term impact data was derived. The response numbers (281 respondents) attests to that. Over 80% of responses were recorded within 24 hours of the two text invitations for participation in the survey that were dispatched by SOLAS in April and June 2016, and a further 20% within the next 48 hours. The overall response rate represents a small proportion of the text requests. This is not unexpected, given the time lag since participation, and the fact that many former participants have now moved on in their lives. It is possible that the text mode of dissemination encourages an instantaneous response, thus accounting for the accelerated drop-off in the response rate over time Time Lag The first question in the Two-Years-On survey related to the year in which the respondent entered the Programme. Over 75% of respondents indicated having done so in 2013, which meant that the majority of respondents were two years or more out of the Programme at the time of the survey. A further 17% indicated that they entered the Programme in 2014, resulting in their post-programme experience being of the order of one year or more. The small 2015 cohort (6%) were in their first few months after exiting the Programme Participant Profile Information The gender profile of respondents was 60% male and 40% female. This was more balanced than 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 16

17 the 70:30 male to female ratio evidenced in the Momentum 1 survey. The age profile of respondents was relatively similar to that for the Momentum 1 Programme, although older age groups feature a little more prominently in the Two-Years-On survey. In terms of educational attainment, the general pattern observed in the first Programme (60% of respondents at Levels 5 and 6) holds for the Two-Years-On survey. Almost 15% indicated an attainment of Levels 1 to 4, with the remaining respondents having attained the higher NQAI levels. The occupational themes of ICT and Healthcare accounted for over 50% of the total responses received. Tourism, Sales and Marketing, and Self-Employment accounted for a further 20% of the total. It is perhaps not surprising that ICT and Healthcare feature strongly, since the pattern is similar to that obtained from the Momentum 1 Programme survey. A factor, then as now, in the higher turnout may be easier online access and experience for the respondents Programme Completion Status In the Two-Years-On survey almost 86% of respondents indicated that they had completed the Momentum Programme. This was well in excess of the equivalent outcomes data recorded for Momentum 1 (65%). It is, however, important to note the different contexts. In the first survey not all respondents would have been at the stage of completion when they engaged with the survey. There was also a significant dropout rate that is not likely to have been captured in the follow-on survey. It is also accepted that many who did not complete the Programme are less likely to want to reflect back on the experience. A follow-on question asked those who had not completed to provide a reason why this was the case. Personal reasons and to take up work share equal prominence as the highest response rates Current Employment Status Almost one-third of respondents indicated being in employment at the time of the survey, which equals the level of employment outcomes reported in the first Programme. Just over half indicated that they are unemployed, slightly above the proportion for Momentum 1. Given the higher proportion of individuals that completed the Programme and responded to the survey, it might be expected that the proportion of unemployed among respondents would be lower than for the respondent population in the first survey. The majority of unemployed respondents were in receipt of the Jobseekers Allowance (JA) payment. Most of the remaining respondents indicated further education as an outcome Employment Duration Duration of employment is a direct indicator of the likely level of sustainability of the job. The data shows that the majority of respondents had been working for one year or less (55%). Females were significantly more likely to be among those employed for more than one year, whilst males dominated in shorter duration work. The question of why such a large proportion indicated that they were in short-duration employment when more than 75% of respondents are three years out of the Programme is worthy of further analysis. Employment churn, where workers mix cycles of employment and unemployment with effectively little meaningful change in income levels, may be a factor. Over 15% of those in a job reported the nature of this to be self-employment. Separately, employment on state schemes, which was ineligible as a Programme outcome, is noted as an outcome by almost 10% of all respondents. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 17

18 3.2.7 Income A key indicator of employment sustainability for the individual is the comparison between state benefit levels and earned income. Almost 60% of the total respondents (194) answered the question on annual income. Nearly 60% of those indicated that they were now in receipt of an annual income of up to 20,000, with a further 20% indicating an annual income of up to 30,000. Approximately 15% indicated income between 30,000 and 40,000, and the remaining 5% indicated income levels of over 40, Employability Impact Respondents were asked to reflect on the extent to which the Momentum Programme had contributed to employability. Almost 60% indicated that the Programme had helped slightly or a lot. In terms of identifying job opportunities, over 65% indicate that it helped a little or a lot. Finally, respondents were asked to assess the impact of Momentum in terms of job skills. Almost 80% indicated that it added either a little or a lot. In terms of confidence the results are similar with almost 70% noting that it helped either a little or a lot Benefits and Unemployment Duration There was almost a 100% response rate to this question, with 20% (55) indicating that they were not currently in receipt of any Social Welfare benefits. A further 5% indicated that they were obtaining credits or Back-to-Work Enterprise Allowance (BTWEA), which was available to the self-employed. As noted earlier, over 60% were receiving Jobseekers Allowance or Benefit. All respondents answered the question in relation to the duration of unemployment. Just less than 25% indicated not applicable because I am working. For the remainder, the pattern was similar to that in the first survey. Almost 30% indicated unemployment of less than one-year duration, which suggests a possible employment outcome that has lapsed. Just over 40% indicated unemployment duration of more than three years, suggesting that they achieved no employment outcome as a result of engaging with the Momentum Programme. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 18

19 4 Momentum 2: Training Provider Perspective This section provides an analysis of the outcomes from the reporting process undertaken by the Training Providers. 4.1 Introduction Training Providers were required to submit reports at key stages of the Momentum 2 Programme. The schedule of reports reflects the multiple phases of the Programme, and the perspective encompasses the level of engagement with each stakeholder. For the SOLAS Programme Managers, the intent of the reports, in addition to accountability, was to give a forum to Providers to record the learning that had been gained as implementation progressed. The reporting was open-ended and the views expressed reflect the bias inherent in such an exercise. 4.2 Overall Programme View Perhaps the most important view expressed by Training Providers in terms of Momentum 2, is on the development of the positive structural relationship with Employers. Employment outcomes underpin the Programme model, and developing relationships of trust with Employers is almost universally cited as most beneficial for the Training Provider. This was particularly referenced in respect of improved understanding of contemporary industry standards, trends, technologies and skills gaps. Work placement is also much referenced in terms of enhanced Provider capacity, as is personal development training, reporting systems and specific sector related content. Practical, employment-related skills delivery is noted in terms of achieving the balance between theoretical and practical skills. In this regard, practical first-aid or manual handling courses are important in the induction phase. Equally, making participants comfortable with employability skills and specific sector training, such as tourism or childcare, help to make the prospect of employment more real for the participant. The involvement of guest speakers from industry, career planning and worksite visits was noted as being particularly positive in this regard. 4.3 Participants Participant concerns reflect many of the standard challenges relating to re-integrating the longterm unemployed into the training and placement environments. Examination challenges and the fear of failure are the two most prominent concerns, and these were linked to low confidence levels, the challenge of fitting in with new people, timekeeping and attendance. These concerns remain consistent throughout each of the Programme phases. Training Providers were asked to list the primary reasons for participants exiting the course early. Issues relating to personal reasons, health, attendance and apathy all feature prominently, as does 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 19

20 an issue relating to the extra work placement block that was applied to the under 25-age group. However, in many cases the dropout is simply referenced as no reason given. In terms of elements that tend to improve engagement, Training Providers note that participants responded best in an informal learning environment that provided a focus on talents and achievable steps. Group activities were considered important, together with the reassurance of frequent formal, and less formal one-to-one activity. For Training Providers, it was important that participants felt respected. Self-awareness and motivation are also noted as contributing positive factors. Training Providers were asked to indicate the most effective way for maintaining contact during work placement and post Programme. The responses reflect a mix of the most contemporary communication applications (Viber, WhatsApp, Facebook) along with the established modes of texting, telephone and Agencies DSP is the key Partner Agency, with a core role that encompasses developing the participant waiting list, targeting the candidates at recruitment, and supporting or sanctioning engagement with the project through each stage. One of the first issues to arise was the change of start date for many projects due to recruitment difficulties, despite considerable effort on all sides. This issue may relate to the falling levels of unemployment and the competition with other labour market activation Programmes, although the designation of 6,500 places would still seem to be viable in the context of a long-term unemployment of 145,000 (June 2016). There was some feedback regarding recruitment challenges in terms of candidate selection (unsuitable, ineligible) and the provision of erroneous participant contact details. Training Providers noted that DSP class visits, targeted letters from DSP offices, preliminary work conducted by some DSP offices, and call-back visits prior to the start of the course, all helped to ease the transition from the waiting lists to the training environment. The issue of costs (travel, subsistence, and childcare) features in the Work Placement experience, as does concern about benefit payment continuity. An issue relating to participants being offered part-time employment during their placement arose for some Training Providers. This does not fit with the BTEA criteria and consequently a potentially important transition step to employment may have been lost. JobsPlus is noted as a positive factor in terms of placement and, presumably, employment. 4.6 Project Delivery Training Providers are uniformly positive about specific skills training and, in particular, with the certification of these skills. Comments received include helped achieve employment, saved employers money and certification is mandatory (childcare). Transferable skills, practical skills, study skills, module introductions, icebreakers and a positive mix of activities are also noted. More specific comments with respect to helping participants overcome skills development challenges reflect upon the important role of partial certification options, sample examination questions and assignments, class representatives, and refresher sessions prior to examinations. These are all noted as having proved successful with many participants, as are more general supports such as confidence-building, mentoring and one-to-one meetings. Additionally, tutor quality, course structure and the creation of an environment where participants experience quick 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 20

21 wins with a sense of personal achievement are all cited as positive factors in retaining engagement with the Programme. Training Providers developed a range of innovative practices for sourcing work placements. These included hiring specialist sectoral career mentors, prior contact with employers, targeted database development, and inviting employers to visit the training environment. In terms of supporting participants through work placement, many of the strategies, such as mentoring and site visits, are similar to those encountered in the previous project stages. Comeback days, where all participants reassemble in the training room, is one of the targeted strategies that proved effective. The attendance at post-programme workshops was, with only a few exceptions, very low. Perhaps the biggest single reason noted by the Training Providers relates to the perception of a natural end that concluded the routine of the training room, as well as the Back-to-Education Allowance onto which Participants had been transferred for the Momentum 2 Programme. In terms of the least beneficial elements, most of the feedback cited participant engagement issues. In particular it was felt that the induction period was of too long a duration, and there was a need for a shorter post-course workshop phase. Best practice suggestions provided by stakeholders included the following: - Collate and share best practice across Training Providers; Introduction of a Buddy System to support workplace transition; Learner preparation to help them cope with the required level of engagement and commitment; Review specific modules for better academic/practical mix. Sector Skills: Barista Coffee skills, industry gaps; Targeted personal effectiveness module; Visits from former graduates. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 21

22 5 Momentum 2: Participant Perspective This section records the outcomes of a focussed survey of the Momentum 2 Programme participants. The structure of the survey was compatible with that used in the previous Final Report on the Momentum Programme for Projects under the current LMETF. 5.1 Participant Survey Approach The Participant survey was designed to facilitate the inclusive and confidential gathering of information from participants 9. Links to the survey were distributed by text through SOLAS. This process differed from that employed in the first survey where the Training Providers undertook distribution of the links to the survey. The Momentum 2 survey was released in two stages, commencing on 16 th November 2015, and 10 th May 2016, respectively. These release dates reflect significant recruitment intake stages. Intake for Momentum 2 was considered to be more difficult than for Momentum 1, possibly as a result of the lower levels of unemployment and national Programme initiatives developed in the intervening period dealing with long-term unemployed. 5.2 Survey Response Profile The survey tool was developed to facilitate a comprehensive mix of almost forty, primarily quantitative, questions with supporting qualitative questions ranging across five key areas: Personal Profile, Programme Access, Programme Training, Placement Feedback and Progression Outcomes. Specific demographic information collected in compliance with European Social Fund (ESF) specification included data on jobless households, housing exclusion, ethnicity and dependent children, and is a new feature of Momentum 2. Appendix A1 provides a copy of the SurveyMonkey Pro questionnaire that was developed Response Rate A total of 910 responses were entered onto the online Participant survey, representing 15% of the total number of Momentum 2 Programme participant starts (6,134). The rate of responsiveness varies by section throughout the survey. Valid reasons for skipped responses include the fact that respondents were at different stages within the Programme. 9 SurveyMonkey Pro was used as the platform for implementing the on-line survey, 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 22

23 5.2.2 Engagement Incentive Participants were invited to identify their individual incentive for engaging with the Momentum 2 Programme. Almost 80% of respondents choose either up-skilling to gain employment or DSP referral. There was a lower response rate for the up-skilling to gain employment response relating to work in Momentum 2 (60% from 75%), and a corresponding, if smaller, increase by in the proportion choosing DSP referral or fear of losing benefits (21% from 11%) Responses by Theme Table 1 Work Experience by Programme Theme M2 Respondents by Occupational Theme Occupational Theme 21.6% Other Services (including Personal Services, Sales and Marketing, Business Administration etc.) M2 Respondents by Previous Occupation 27.9% 16.7% Tourism (Hospitality, Accommodation, Food and Beverage) 24.5% 16.1% Transport Distribution and Logistics 11.9% 15.9% Built Environment 11.7% 9.9% ICT 8.2% 9.5% Self-employment/ Start-up 6.1% 6.5% Manufacturing 5.6% 3.9% Financial Services 4.1% Source: Exodea Consulting Given that the themes for the Momentum 2 Programme were different from those of Momentum 1, there are few points for valid comparison. For many Programme themes, the similarity in terms of response rates between work experience and Programme choice would appear to link experience with choice. There are a number of notable exceptions, however. Participation rates in ICT, and Transport, Distribution and Logistics are significantly higher than the rate indicating prior sectoral experience. This may be attributed to the general perception of opportunity for work within these sectors. A reverse trend is evident in Tourism, where Participant engagement is 8% below the proportion indicating prior sectoral experience Regional Distribution The regional distribution trend between Momentum 1 and 2 is reasonably similar. The more positive national employment profile in probably accounts for a small decrease in the response rates from the urban areas of Dublin and Cork, and a corresponding increase in the Midlands and along the western corridor. 5.3 Participant Profile In addition to the relatively standard profile information that featured in the Momentum 1 Participant Survey, additional questions on ethnicity, accommodation and jobless households were added to provide additional insight. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 23

24 5.3.1 Participant Gender Profile The gender split for the Momentum 2 Programme (6,134) is 74:26 in favour of men, which compares with the 70M:30F split achieved in the Momentum 1 Programme. Among the longerterm unemployed it is slightly more unequal with a 76:24 gender ratio. Figure 2 Momentum 2 Programme Gender Profile Source: Exodea Consulting The pattern for the most recent Central Statistics Office (CSO) Quarterly National Household Survey 10 (QNHS) showed a 69:31 male/female gender ratio amongst those unemployed for more than a year. In the survey, the gender split obtained was 63:37 in favour of men, which compares positively in terms of equality with the gender pattern for the Programme. Figure 3 Momentum 2 Survey Gender Profile Source: Exodea Consulting One of the observations made in a gender profile of the Momentum 1 survey results was that females were more positive about engagement with the Programme. The longitudinal survey suggests similarly, with clear indications (albeit on a small sample profile) that females have engaged for longer in the workforce Citizenship and Household The majority of respondents defined themselves as Irish citizens (80%) or citizens of countries of the EU (10%). In terms of ESF related data, just over 3% of respondents define themselves as Irish residents of immigrant origin, 1.5% as Irish Travellers, and 0.5% as members of the Roma minority, with non-eu residents accounting for the remainder. The vast majority of respondents indicated their accommodation as being either a house (80%) or, a flat or apartment (18%). The remaining responses divide between temporary accommodation (1.2%), voluntary housing (0.4%) and direct provision centres (0.3%). In terms of household type, almost 60% of respondents indicated that they were part of a family household. Households comprising of a group of related or unrelated persons accounted for almost one-quarter of all respondents, and one-person households accounted for a further 17% of responses. A significant proportion of family households comprised of a family unit where all of the children are over 18 years of age. Amongst one-parent households (17%), the proportion was higher than for 10 CSO Quarterly National Household Survey: Quarter Ireland Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 24

25 households with at least one child under 18 years of age. The split was almost even in two-person households, which comprised the highest overall number of respondent households (43%) Participant Age Profile The variation between age ranges shown in the table below is relatively consistent with the national profile, matching fairly closely the age profile of total unemployed. Interestingly, the under 25 female proportion of all females (37.5%) is higher than for under 25 young men (28.5%) among the male cohort. Table 2 Participant Age Profile Participant Age Range U/E Rate Q Survey % Momentum Participation Rate % % 20.1% 21.4% % 27.3% 27 % % 25.8% 27.2% % 19.2% 18% Source: Exodea Consulting % 6.3% Participant Educational Attainment Although the question format was slightly different in the Momentum 2 survey 11 it is relatively clear that the skill levels of the current cohort were at a lower level than for Momentum 1. It is notable, however, that although there were more respondents at the very highest levels in Momentum 2, the total response rate indicating Level 6 and above was significantly lower. There is a corresponding increase in the response rate at lower education levels (Levels 1-4). Table 3 Educational Attainment Profile NFQ Level (L) Participant Survey M1 Participant Survey M2 L1 1.4% L2 1.2% L3 Junior Cert 11.3% 9.2% L4 9.9% L5 Leaving Cert 29.5% 29.3% L6 Advanced Cert 34.7% 26.0% L7 Ordinary Degree 14.9% 3.7% Honours bachelor degree or equivalent, Postgraduate qualification (L8, L9, L10) 9.7% 16.2% No qualification 2.4% Source: Exodea Consulting Participant Unemployment Profile Over 20% of the survey respondents indicated an unemployment duration below that of the Momentum Programme eligibility criteria To avoid confusion other was removed as an option in the current survey and each of the NFQ levels were included. The inclusion of other as a choice in the M1 survey led to some confusion and required a post survey exercise of distributing the other respondents into their most appropriate NFQ category 12 It is important to note that the eligibility criteria cited by DSP is a total of 312 days on Jobseeker s Allowance (JA) /Jobseeker s Benefit (JB) applying in the 18 months previous to the start date of the course. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 25

26 Table 4 - Participant Unemployment Profile M1 Survey Respondents M2 Survey Respondents Live Register Data < One year 10% 22% 54% One year 13% 11% 12% Two years 26% 18% 8% Three years 20% 13% Four years 16% 10% Five+ years 14% 26% Where: n = 1,001 n-910 n = 343,551 (June 2015) Source: Exodea Consulting The 12% increase amongst this cohort between Programmes is worthy of further analysis. Factors such as lower unemployment rates, other major Programme initiatives for long-term unemployed, and the technical specification that DSP applied to minimum unemployment duration (12 out of 18 months) are important. Otherwise, the focus on long-term unemployed was very clearly demonstrated when measured against the duration of unemployment for all of those on the Live Register in Q1 and Q2 of Unemployment within Families Just over 48% of respondents indicated that another member of their immediate family was unemployed. This represents a small but significant increase on the rate (45%) in the first survey. A further question in the current survey sought a deeper level of understanding with respect to jobless households. Just less than one-third of responses (n=910) were households that were jobless, and in a third of these households there were more than two jobless persons. 26% 5.4 Training Experience Rating of Training In terms of the criteria of relevance, quality, interaction, pace, and job potential, all returned positive ratings (good, or very good) by an average of 80% of respondents in Momentum 2. Respondents were asked to assess of the degree to which the learning from the Programme would be of value to the individual for placement and for work. The positive response rate also dominates (80% agree or strongly agree ). In terms of changes in personal confidence and work attitude as a result of engagement with the Momentum Programme, the pattern of response was similar, with a significant majority (70%) indicating an increase in personal confidence and attitude towards work Pre- and Post-Skills Acquisition Respondents were asked to assess their skills before the Momentum training, and again at the point that they had reached on the Programme at the time of the survey, facilitating a before and after assessment. Rating was on a ten-point scale with 10 being the highest. The average rating is shown below for each of the indicators. 13 Live Register Age By Duration Analysis - Central Statistics Office 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 26

27 Table 5 Work Skills Acquisition Prompt: Skills Pre- and Post-Training Skills Pre Training Post Training % Increase Momentum 2 % Increase Momentum 1 Work Habits % 19.4% Confidence % 32.2% Attitude % 17.1% Communication skills % 20.6% Self-care % 15.7% Self-management % 21.5% Readiness for work % 23.2% Source: Exodea Consulting n=720 n=890 The overall average improvement between pre- and post-training is 1.8, which represents an average increase of almost 33% in skills across all indicators. It is significant for the Programme that the indicators showing the highest level of improvement - confidence (50%), readiness for work (31%) and self-management (30%) - are all recognised as important contributors on the pathway to work. The increase in confidence is particularly welcomed as it works against a primary barrier that will have been fuelled by the individual s duration of unemployment. Conversely, indicators such as self-care (16%) and attitude (27%) are both recorded below the average. There is a significant positive improvement in the before and after skills acquisition scores between this and the first Momentum Programme. In terms of the averages, the improvement in self-scored skills acquisition jumped from 21% to 31%, and for individual indicators the increase was as high as 18% (confidence) or 13% (communication skills). It is difficult to interpret this increase as being anything other than a positive reflection of the changes that have been implemented. The question itself requires a high level of consideration and input to produce an answer and as such, gives perhaps an added legitimacy to the results. 5.5 Work Placement Work placement is recognised as a necessary transition step towards employment for the longterm unemployed person who has just acquired a skill. This importance is emphasised in the application process, when applicant organisations are required to provide support letters from host employers as evidence of placement opportunities Access and Take-up Respondents were asked to identify the mechanism by which they gained an offer of work placement. Almost half of all responses (n=682) indicated the training provider, with a further 10% indicating self-employment preparation. There was a relatively high number who indicated that the training provider did not secure a placement (26%). Those who had answered no to the question on take up of placement were more likely to indicate personal reasons, or that they did not agree with the type of placement. Placement costs were also cited as a factor Experience of Placement The experience of placement scores for Momentum 2 were positive, with over 80% of respondents considering that the Training Provider had been either good or excellent in terms of the preparation. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 27

28 Almost half of all respondents indicated a dramatic increase or increased a lot in terms of a key range of their skills that had developed as a result of work placement Positive attitude towards work, taking responsibility, self-confidence and ability to manage in a workplace environment. More than 73% of respondents considered that the skills learnt in training had helped in work placement to the extent that they were either good or excellent. The highest positive rating, for excellent or good (82.6%), is recorded for the indicator that links placement with an increasing motivation to work. 5.6 Participant Progression The increased proportion of reported job outcomes achieved in Momentum 2 is perhaps the most significant finding, particularly as it seems to relate almost directly to the corresponding decrease in the proportion of respondents indicating unemployment. It is interesting to note that the proportion of further education and placement in other government scheme outcomes is relatively similar for both Momentum surveys. Table 6 Participant Progression Progression Indicator % Total Survey Responses Momentum 1 Momentum 2 Number of Responses % Total Survey Responses Number of Responses Total Jobs 21.0% % 292 Schemes 6.0% % 57 FET 14.0% % 104 Unemployment 47.0% % 326 Not finished 12.0% 12.7% 113 Source: Exodea Consulting 100% n= % n=892 In terms of the survey, the reported outcome total of 292 jobs was almost 10% higher than that for Momentum 1. In terms of type of employment, the trend shows a small decrease in the proportion of casual jobs and a corresponding increase in part-time employment status in particular. Table 7 - Employment Type Job Type Momentum 1 Momentum 2 % Total Survey Responses Number of Responses % Total Survey Responses Number of Responses Full-Time 36% 75 39% 114 Part-Time 20% 39 27% 80 Casual Jobs 28% 58 20% 59 Self-Employment 16% 34 14% 39 Source: Exodea Consulting Salary levels are a strong indicator of job sustainability. It has long been accepted that there is a constant churn or turnover between employment and unemployment in the Live Register data at marginal salary levels. On a low response rate (193) over 70% of respondents salary equivalents of between 12,000 and 19,200 per annum. By comparison, the minimum wage equivalent is 17,992, which gives an indication of how marginal some newfound employment can be. The living wage equivalent is just over 23,800. For some social and community service providers this is considered to be the basic income requirement in Ireland. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 28

29 6 Young People and Momentum Given the particular difficulties for young people accessing employment, this section provides a focus on the impact of Momentum on those who participated in the Programme. 6.1 Background Young People and Work In a pre-budget submission for Budget the National Youth Council (NYC) described the situation being faced by young people, noting that the rate of unemployment, though falling, was double the rate pre-recession and expressing particular concern about the relatively high rate of long-term unemployment. EU research points to the isolating effect of long-term unemployment on youth, noting that it is makes it harder for this cohort with very little or no work experience to enter the workforce. The NYC submission noted equally interesting findings on the precarious situation facing young people in the labour market. Using CSO labour market data, the report points out that almost 40% of young workers were on the minimum wage and that 35% of young workers were in temporary employment (2012). The acronym NEET describes the experience of young unemployed people with no engagement in employment, education or training. In May 2016 a report in the Irish Times noted OECD data 15 showing a rate of 18% in 2014, above the average and on a par with Greece. An article in the Journal in October 2014, again citing OECD data 16, points out that in terms of the relatively high incidence of low-pay jobs in the economy Ireland was second only to the US with more than 20% of the workforce engaged in low-pay jobs Momentum 2: Learning from Momentum 1 An important change was made in programming for young people based on the learning that emerged from Momentum 1. In that Programme, a separate youth cohort was created based on the ESF stream of funding. For Momentum 2 this practice was discontinued and in its place young people were recruited in similar manner and to the same Programmes as older adults. An additional change was made to counter the lack of work experience that could place young people at a disadvantage in the jobs market. To this end, an extra four weeks was added to the work placement period, and perhaps more significantly, the JobBridge Programme was allowed as a valid outcome for young people. 14 National Youth Council of Ireland. NYCI Pre-Budget Submission 2016 Quest for the Best Make Ireland the best country in which to be a young person Comhairle Náisiúnta na nóg. Montague Street Dublin 2 July Irish Times May Report on an OECD Seminar at the ESRI offices 16 The report quotes Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner who based the findings on the OECD Employment Outlook (2014) report that defined low-paying jobs as those for which earnings are below two-thirds of a country s median income (23, 641). The Journal, October Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 29

30 6.2 Survey Data Youth Participant Profile Much of the participant profile data was similar to or in keeping with what might be expected from the youngest cohort of respondents, representing just over 20% (186) of the total survey population. A significant difference was, however, to be found with the male: female ratio which is a relatively equal 52M:48F in contrast with the two-thirds male: one-third female ratio for the total respondent population. There was little difference in data trends in terms of citizenship and living arrangements, although there was a slightly higher proportion of Irish citizens (85%). A higher number of respondents lived in a two-parent family (49% to 43%). Given the age cohort, it is not surprising that 20% of respondents live within a group of persons, although this is five points lower than for adult survey population. There were less one-person households (5%) than among the total survey population. One-parent families (27%), however, was fully twelve points higher than for the adult survey population. In terms of Work Status, just over one-quarter of all respondents indicated that no persons in the household are at work. The corresponding figure for adults was one-third. It is significant that almost three quarters of all young respondents indicated that they had education attainment levels between L3 and L5. This was over 25 points higher than amongst the general survey population. There was a corresponding decrease at the higher education attainment levels amongst young respondents, particularly at Levels 7 to 10. Whilst age may be a factor in that the younger age groups might not have progressed in comparison to the older cohort, this has to be balanced by the reality that these are long-term unemployed people and not students. Duration of unemployment pattern was consistent with the age cohort, with a higher proportion indicating less that one-year (33%) and one-year (16%), compared to 22% and 11% for the general population. The proportion (20%) indicating four years or more was lower by a corresponding percentage than for the general survey population. For three-quarters of young respondents the survey showed that another member of their immediate family is unemployed, with parent-guardian and/or sibling was the most common status designation Training The majority of young respondents rated the training as either good or very good. The highest positive rating was for interaction within the group (94%), and four indicators (quality, confidence, enjoyment and new skills) achieved satisfaction levels of close to 90%. Relevance, pace and job potential achieved satisfaction levels of 75% or more. These scores are generally higher than for the general population. Just less than 87% of respondents indicated that they agree or strongly agree that what they learned on the Programme would help them to gain employment. In terms of the five topic areas (Induction, Certified Job Skills Development, Personal Development, Job Placement and Job Preparation) over 80% of respondents found the topics to be good or very good. Just less than 80% of respondents found that both personal confidence and attitude to work had increased or significantly increased as a result of the Programme. Capacity to exit from welfare benefits was reported to have increased somewhat or dramatically for 80% of respondents. Over 85% of respondents indicated that their experience of the training element of the Momentum Programme was excellent or above average. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 30

31 6.2.3 Placement Close to three-quarters of the relevant responses indicated that the Training Provider provided the participant with the placement, which is considered to be consistent given their relative lack of experience and personal contacts. This was significantly higher than the rate for the adult age cohort (50%). Self-employment as an outcome was half the rate of the adult cohort (10%). Almost 20% of respondents indicated that the Training Provider did not secure a placement for them. This finding was ten points lower than in the adult population. In terms of skills development whilst on placement, the responses were heavily weighed towards the positive. In terms of dramatic or significant skills increases the response rate was of the order of 50%, with positive attitude, taking responsibility and use of initiative at the higher end of the scale, Over 80% of respondents indicated good or excellent in terms of preparation and effect of the work placement Progression 31 respondents reported that they were still engaged in training or placement. One-third of all respondents (61) indicated that they were engaged in a form of employment, and a further 32 indicated involvement in further education or Job Bridge, the latter of which is a permitted outcome for the younger age cohort. Almost 60 respondents indicated that they were unemployed. Three-quarters of the respondents indicated that the work placement experience was above average or excellent, and over 85% indicated that they would probably or definitely recommend participation on the Momentum Programme. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 31

32 7 Momentum 2: Outcomes This section examines the outcomes that can be directly attributed to the Momentum 2 labour market activation initiative. 7.1 Data Quality and Transparency As with the first Momentum Programme, the origination of the outcomes data was based on the payment claims process agreed between the provider and SOLAS. There were a number of Programme stages at which verifiable data was required to support a payment claim by the Training Provider, and it this data that provides high quality information running from the time the places are contracted, through the training phase, onto placement, and ultimately into employment or further education. 7.2 Data on Early Exits The structure of the Programme facilitates a clear picture of engagement and disengagement. The figures are shown below. Table 8 Momentum 2 Early Exits Programme Stage Participants Change Total Referrals 13,974 Total Starters 6,134 Total invoiced: Week 5: Post-Induction 5, % Total invoiced: Week 11 5, % Total invoiced: Week 17 4, % Total invoiced: End of Course 3, % Source: SOLAS As of June 2016 the dropout rate was 36.8%, representing 2,166 of the 5,875 starters. The highest dropout points at Week 17 and at the end of the course represent the placement phase and the placement to work phase. These are the pressure points in terms of labour market activation outcomes and it is, therefore, logical that the dropout rate would rise accordingly. Training Provider reports and exit interviews with the participants attest subjectively to the personal challenge faced by individuals in terms of self-confidence. It is clear from the participant survey that a significant proportion of participants were not placed, and the Training Providers indicated that some were just not ready to take on the challenge of placement for a variety of personal, attendance or disciplinary issues. It is beyond the scope of the current work to analyse the complex factors at play for those who have not engaged fully or successfully with the Programme. It is clear, however, that although there are clear signs of improvement between Programme iterations across a variety of dimensions (participants rating of training, outcomes data), the early exits data remains stubbornly high. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 32

33 The recruitment model may be a contributory factor in that it substituted the traditional Training Provider recruitment favouring those most likely to succeed, with a model where entry is made available through the DSP by way of a waiting list, and subject to the individual possessing entrylevel qualifications determined by the Training Provider. The recruitment model, perhaps, carries a greater risk of dropouts than a specific Training Provider-led recruitment process might. Against that, labour-market opportunities are opened up on a relatively equal basis for all persons in receipt of long-term unemployment benefits. During the training phase, partial Programme certification was achieved by 60% of those who were entered into the project database. Three quarters of these have achieved certification at Level 5 and the remaining respondents divided fairly evenly between Level 4 and Level Employment Outcomes Overview In terms of Momentum 1 17, there were positive outcomes for 38% of those who finished the Programme. Full-time employment was achieved by 24% of finishers and a further 6% achieved part-time employment. Progression to further education was achieved by 8% of the finishers. In Momentum 2, the claims that were processed to June 2016, confirmed that there were just less than 2,900 finishers, and there were positive outcomes for 1,409 (49%) of these finishers. Host employers were identified in just over 860 files (69%). An outcome has been claimed for 29% of the total. It should be borne in mind that, at the time of the review, not all of the files were closed. A total of 34% (24%-Momentum 1) of finishers had achieved a full-time job, and a further 11% (6%-Momentum 1) had achieved part-time employment. These proportions were in excess of those achieved in the first Programme. A further education outcome was achieved in 4% of the claims that had been processed, which is four percentage points below the rate of achievement in Momentum 1. A positive feature in terms of the outcomes was the increase in full-time opportunities in Momentum 2, with the average (70%) being over three times the average for part-time jobs (23%). In terms of the Programme s employment focus progression to education achieved a relatively low proportion (4%) in comparison with the corresponding figure for Momentum 1 (8%), however, this is not considered to be a negative outcome given the changed circumstances. Table 9 - Overview of Employment Outcomes (September 2016) Status Starters Week 2 Finishers 18 Full-time Job Outcomes Total as at 7 th September ,134 5,875 2,887 Part-time Job Outcomes Further Education Total % Total 34% 11% 4% Over 25 s % Total Finishers 24% 7% 3% Under 25 s % Total Finishers 10% 4% 1% Source: Exodea Consulting 17 A full copy of the Momentum 1 Full Evaluation Report Programme Evaluation: Momentum Programme for Projects under the Labour Market Education and Training Fund (December 2014) can be accessed here: 18 At the time of survey, the final outcomes data was only available for just over 50% of all projects. 19 Includes 14 on JobBridge, a valid outcome for the younger age cohort. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 33

34 The average duration of employment for those entered into the project database was 4.5 months. For almost 87% of the files that showed an outcome, the nature of the job was seen to relate directly to the course taken, and for almost 50% of this cohort, the work was connected to the placement. A small proportion, just over 1%, indicated self-employment as the outcome. The total outcomes data for full-time jobs indicated that five in every seven outcomes returned a job for over 25 s, with the remaining two jobs accruing to a young person. In terms of part-time work, 1.3 of every 2 jobs accrued to the over-25 s, with 0.7 full-time equivalent per 2 jobs accruing to the under-25 s. Outcomes data is maintained for the over-25 s and under-25 s, and the trends within these cohorts are relatively consistent. The over-25 age cohort is a little more likely to achieve a full-time job, but only by four points. The situation is reversed for part-time jobs with under-25 s showing a slightly higher return rate. Progression rates with each cohort are similar, although the under-25 s total includes a small proportion on JobBridge, which is an outcome that is not eligible for the over-25 s. This progression compares favourably to outcomes-based Programmes for the unemployed in the UK and Australia. The most recent review of the UK Work Programme found success levels close to 30% in terms of jobs meeting the minimum requirements 20. Interestingly, the review found that over 40% of the 1.8m that had entered the Programme had been recorded in employment of some duration since the Programme start in This ties into persistent anecdotal evidence that official figures are often underreported because the provider loses contact with Programme participants that have exited to employment, or cannot claim for those who have not met the time requirements relating to the particular stage of the Programme, but who subsequently are shown to have exited into employment Outcomes Data: Under 25 s The Outcomes Data report shows that among the under 25 s there were just over 1,800 recorded on the system as starters and 904 finishers 21. Within the different categories the data shows that almost half of those who started the Programme finished, with the rate varying between highs of 57% for other services to lows of 26% for built environment. It should be kept in mind that outcomes data is not yet in for 20% of the projects. For the high volume projects the completion rate for other services as stated is 57%, for tourism it is right on the average, and for ICT it is five points lower at 45%, although ICT currently reports outcomes for only 55% of started projects, so it can be predicted that the rate of finishers will increase. Just over 55% of young people who completed the Momentum 2 Programme achieved an outcome. The impact of the changes in youth programming, particularly with respect to integration of youth and adults in the same environment appears to have been successful in terms of outcomes, with a greater proportion of youth achieving employment. The results trend runs counter to generally negative survey feedback from both participants and Training Providers, in terms of longer placement duration and JobBridge Outcomes Data: Occupational Category Two sectors, tourism and other services, on an almost equal split, account for 76% of full-time jobs and for almost 80% of the part-time jobs accruing to young people. The ICT and transport sectors account for most of the remaining jobs, showing 10% in each sector for both job types. 20 Job outcome payments are made after 13 and 26 months after which there are sustainment payments for longer durations. 21 The number of finishers is expected to increase as complete data is not yet available for over 20% of projects. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 34

35 Figure 4 Momentum 1: Participant Outcomes Source: Exodea Consulting In comparison with the older age groups, it is notable that the tourism sector accounts for over a third of the youth intake, which is almost double the proportion for the older age group. The same divide separates the age groups in terms of construction with more young starters in absolute terms and double the proportionate intake, albeit on a relatively lower allocation of approximately 200. In contrast, the proportionate take-up of places in the ICT (15%) and transport (10%) sector is only half of that of older age groups; in absolute terms the numbers look more stark with younger people joining ICT (271) representing a quarter of the number of older-age group starters (1,078). Although the proportionate intake difference of one-third youth and two-thirds older age groups is significant, it is apparent that young people were less likely to pursue the occupational areas requiring higher skill levels (experience is probably also a factor in terms of transport), and more likely to go into the lower skill occupations in tourism related businesses and in the construction sector. It might be construed that easier entry into these sectors may be a factor, but each of these sectors showed a demand for workers, which is why they were chosen in the first place. In terms of the numbers completing the training element of the Programme, 49% of youth starters are recorded as having completed (based on 231 projects). The corresponding data for older-age groups shows a completion rate of 59% from 244 projects. Table 10 - Job Outcomes by Age and Category (Aug. 2016) Category Total <25 s >25 s Transport, Distribution and Logistics % 84% Tourism, Accommodation, Food and Beverage % 50% Other Services % 64% Manufacturing 58 19% 81% ICT % 78% Built Environment Job Outcomes Distribution N=1,146 33% 66% Source: Exodea Consulting For the under-25 cohort two high intake sectors, ICT and Transport, Distribution and Logistics 22 show much higher sector employment levels. Although it appears more balanced in the tourism sector, these jobs dominate within the younger age group, representing 41% (n=378), whilst comparatively among the older age cohort this sector accounts for 20% (n=768). This outcome is 22 Manufacturing shows a similar pattern but is accounts for the smallest intake of all categories. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 35

36 consistent with the employment quality profile in the tourism sector and, in general, it is notable that young people tend towards those sectors associated with marginal employment. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 36

37 8 Analysis Momentum set out to foster a strategic approach to Labour Market Activation based on: - Specific targets: the Programme specifically targeted an employment outcome for the long-term unemployed. Data driven: Momentum is a model of evidence-based decision-making. Delivery-Outcomes Payment model: Verifiable data is a logical and welcome outcome of a payment model based on delivery milestones, placement and employment outcomes. 8.1 Context Momentum 2 was delivered in an economic environment that was significantly different from that which prevailed at the time of Momentum 1. There were more jobs, thus more job opportunities, which should open up a greater number of successful outcomes. At the time of the Momentum 1 commencement in 2013 employment levels were falling, whereas these have been increasing for each of the 11 quarters to Q2 2015, and in each subsequent quarter. Because of the higher unemployment levels in 2013 the client profile for Momentum 1 was atypical as it included those who had only become long-term unemployed through the impact of the recession. The higher educational attainment levels of the Momentum 1 cohort confirmed this situation. The client profile in Momentum 2 has reverted to typical long-term unemployment trends, evidenced in lower skills levels and longer duration of unemployment. This has important implications in terms of exiting to employment, as evidenced in a recent labour market report. The report notes that the short-term unemployed have re-entered the workforce to reported levels in the 50% range, whilst those who remained in long-term unemployment were finding employment at rates closer to 10% Outcomes Positive outcomes achievement of almost 50% is more than 10% better than that achieved in Momentum 1. This is a very positive outcome given the context, described above, where the participants profile is more reflective of typical low-skill levels associated with long-term unemployment. Across every domain of recruitment, training, placement and employment, the evidence shows that higher outcomes have been achieved in Momentum Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service. Labour Market Synopsis. Issue 4. Labour Market Programmes (2014). Department of Public Expenditure and Reform. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 37

38 8.3 Employers The relationship that has been facilitated between Training Providers and Employers is an important outcome of the Momentum Programme. Perhaps for the first time, a crucial structural link between labour market activation Programmes and employers is in place, where a reciprocal relationship sees the Employer provide real work based on a comprehensive period of statefunded training and placement provided by the public or private sector Provider. The new model also allows the Employer to influence training-room content with insights on the sector skills gaps that need to be addressed. The win for the Employer is that Momentum provides a much enhanced, and potentially more effective, recruitment process that demonstrates successful training and placement experience, independently verified for the prospective candidate. 8.4 Marginal Employment A significant finding facilitated through the transparency of the outcomes data, and anecdotally in the feedback from the Two-Years-On survey, is that many employment opportunities available for the long-term unemployed are marginal both for programme participants and as a logical extension in the labour market generally. The impact of marginal employment expresses itself through the level of tension between lowwage, poor quality employment and the social welfare benefits system. The extent of the phenomenon may suggest that characteristics associated with marginal employment (including low-wages, seasonal employment, and casual contracts) in certain sectors (Accommodation and Food and Healthcare Workers, for example) militate against the individual giving up the benefits, real or perceived, of the welfare system. 8.5 Delivery and Outcomes-Based Payment Model The Momentum Programme has significantly increased the capacity of the state to engage the private and public sector to operate to a verifiable delivery and outcomes-based labour market activation proposition. The Programme has facilitated an unprecedented level of insight into a significant labour market activation Programme at a national level. The transparency of the model and the unambiguous presentation of the inflows and outflows at all stages of delivery is wholly illuminating of a process of returning long-term unemployed into the world of work. Through the five-stage Momentum 1 evaluation process, the more limited Two-Years-On check-in, and the comprehensive Momentum 2 evaluation, it is clearly apparent that the Programme approach has proved itself effective at successfully engaging with the long-term unemployed. The enhanced capacity to deliver 6,000 places to this shared risk model of state funding has wide implications for the training and employment supports sector and may have wider applicability across other national funding streams. 8.6 Test Bed Programming Momentum was conceived as a new approach in Ireland to address the social and economic issues of long-term unemployment through innovative labour-market activation processes. Test bed models, such as Momentum, must be based on evidence from the observation of appropriate world-class models being developed in other jurisdictions. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 38

39 The value in adopting this approach is that it will facilitate practical learning from innovation. For example the increased premium attached to achieving employment outcomes in this programme is best suited to a test-bed environment. There is not enough evidence to this point to conclude that it was the main factor in improved outcomes; more likely, it was one of a number of factors. The extent of its efficacy could only be ascertained after a prolonged period of observation and trial and error. This is different from using existing established standards against which to benchmark performance. Such innovation, however, brings risk, and this must be ameliorated by applying rigorous standards of research, development, monitoring and reporting within the framework of delivery. 8.7 Recruitment Recruitment proved to be difficult despite significantly improved processes and systems adopted amongst all stakeholders. The recruitment model is predicated on developing waitlists of eligible clients in local DSP offices; a process that is designed to ensure equity and negate the risk of cherry picking the best candidates. Although 13,500 potential participants were placed on the waiting list for the Programme, the actual starting number was less than half of this number. In addition, the recruitment process took double the six months that was planned. Whilst employment circumstances have improved, there are still over 140,000 people in long-term unemployment, and as such the more positive employment environment does not fully explain the recruitment challenges that were experienced. 8.8 Data Data-evidenced delivery and outcomes reporting disrupted the prevailing mainstream paradigm. Reporting standards have, historically, tended to be less than transparent, more subjective, and often driven by the need to conform. In a system where payment or progression is based on verifiable data at pre-defined delivery and outcome stages, it is clearly easier to make objective observations on the results obtained. The risk in the new model, however, is that actual results, positive as they may be, will never appear to be compatible with results that were traditionally reported based on less transparent and scientific, and more subjective outcomes reporting. The employment outcomes reported in Momentum 2 are verifiable because there is a clear record linking the Participant to the Provider, and ultimately to the Employer. This is a level of data integrity that reflects the innovation of the Momentum approach, and is to be celebrated as creating the new paradigm for future Labour Market Intervention initiatives. 8.9 Inter-Departmental Relationships Momentum could not have worked without the close and positive operational links that were established and nurtured between SOLAS and DSP. This was not an easy process, but one that had to be developed to accommodate differing work practices, systems and departmental imperatives Momentum and Young People Momentum 2 has worked particularly well for young people. It has provided real jobs to a cohort that is a constant focus of national concern in terms of sustainable futures. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 39

40 JobBridge was added as a legitimate outcome for young people as a way of increasing much needed real work experience. In the event there was a low take-up of places; the higher incidence of positive outcomes in Momentum 2 relates more to the improved jobs market and a higher incidence of youth finishers as a result of mixing youth and adults rather than youth-only programmes. The challenge of the extra four weeks training for young people is different. It is difficult to know if the negative feedback reflects being treated differently than older training colleagues, or the added 'free' placement period. There may be scope within programming to address the differential treatment. Greater buy-in might be achieved if an evidenced-based rationale for the change is made clear. Further innovation is possible in terms of using the prospect of shorter placement as a target for positive performance in terms of demonstrating employment readiness. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 40

41 9 Recommendations The following summary recommendations are based on the analysis of the performance of Momentum 1 and Momentum 2 over the past years. They serve to inform the development of future labour-market interventions that are designed to offer the greatest opportunity for participants to obtain employment, whilst ensuring efficiency in the investment of public resources. 9.1 Strategic Approach: Recommendations The Momentum Programme approach highlights the importance of data driven decision-making. The learning from Momentum 1 gave rise to a series of changes (induction, Increased focus on employment, placement responsibility on Training Providers) that underpin the clearly improved results for Momentum 2 with what was arguably a harder to reach cohort Measureable Outcomes The Momentum approach has been successful in achieving its stated objectives. It has achieved this by disrupting traditional models of training and placement delivery. There was an enhanced focus in Momentum 2 on jobs, which accounts for the lower level of transfer to further education. The outcomes achieved by the Momentum 2 Programme point strongly to the need to retain and further develop the model of delivery and outcomes-based payments to incentivise innovation and efficiency in the training and skills sector. This is a Programme that can be appropriately adapted to other labour market activation interventions. Based on the strong results it has achieved, the Momentum approach should be continued. Now that the essential framework of the model has been developed and tested, there is an argument to be made that there is value in moving it from a Strategic Programme to an Operational Programme within the ETB-operated Training Centre network, for example. This might be achieved using a contracted training type vehicle, whilst maintaining a strong management and support function through SOLAS. A smaller allocation of places should continue to be made available at a national level, particularly in terms of the success achieved with younger people Inter-Departmental Coordination The Momentum Programme model has facilitated the development of new multi-level structural relationships between and across agencies in support of the needs of the unemployed. This enhanced relationship has reached across the state sector to include private sector Training Providers, and has proved effective at bridging interagency gaps that previously existed for the benefit of all parties, particularly the unemployed client group. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 41

42 The key properties of the model that have been identified and should be widely promoted include: multi-level partnering, shared responsibility, divesting control, sharing of data across organisations so that information systems can communicate effectively FET Sector Capacity Building The state, through the SOLAS, has invested in building the necessary innovation, flexibility and accountability among key public and private sector Training Providers to deliver to a payment system based on measureable outcomes for 6,500 previously unemployed individuals. The investment has been found to be worthwhile with results in the first two Programmes comparable to international best practice. It is clearly desirable that the investment is maintained so that the capacity of the FET sector to operate successfully within this successful Programme envelope is not lost Data Driven Decision Making Changes in the Momentum 2 delivery model were based on the evidence-based data and experience that emerged from Momentum 1. Significant changes were made with respect to the induction cycle, a clearer focus on employment and simplification of payment processes. Evidence shows that the data-driven decision-making approach had a positive effect on the improvement that has occurred between Momentum 1 and Momentum 2. Data driven decisions based on verifiable data clearly enhances the propensity for success. The Momentum approach should be continued, as it represents and innovative and evolving model of strategic Programme design and operation at a national level Delivery and Job Outcomes Payment Model Momentum is funded through the National Training Fund that is administered by the Department of Education and Skills and operated through SOLAS. It is a structured payment model linking training delivery and employment outcomes; the current allocation of funding is 70:30 in terms of skills and work, increased the work premium by 10%. It is beyond the scope of this report to attribute improved results to this factor alone. It would require systematic observation over time to make such a claim. More likely, this and the other improvements were factors in the improvement. It is observed that the ratio has become a political tool in other jurisdictions with the slogan of only paying for real jobs proving irresistible as a sound bite. There is little evidence that linking the funding to employment outcomes solely provides any cost or employment benefits; indeed the lessons being learned where it has been tried is to move to reintroduce skills development. The issue of employment churn with respect to low skills jobs would also seem to suggest that a predominantly employment-outcomes based payment model would not be in the public interest. The payment model should be promoted for Active Labour Market Programmes. In terms of long-term unemployed it should always reflect a combination of skills and employment outcomes. The ratio should always be calibrated to the prevailing data. In the current context the prevalence of a low-skill profile among long-term unemployed would seem to increase the relative importance of appropriate, jobs driven, certified (and hence transferable) skills development. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 42

43 9.1.6 Transparency The Momentum approach is founded on the need to create a clear and accountable model to connect the investment of public resources with activities to address unemployment. The evidence suggests that transparency provides all stakeholders with clear, unambiguous information against which to assess all efforts to address long-term unemployment. Momentum provides a clear pathway that identifies resources and relates these to the outcomes of the Programme. As such it establishes the benchmark for outcomes-based transparency in the training and skills environment. This approach is transferable, and should become a standard Shared Risk Momentum represents a strategic approach framed within a risk-sharing envelope. Sharing the risk with the Training Provider enhances performance. This is evidenced by the fact that in Momentum 1, the state recovered resources, which would otherwise have been lost. Greater programme success in Momentum 2, allied to higher training provider fees to operate in this environment, will see a more balanced return based on increased outcomes. It will be important to constantly calibrate the shared risk profile to optimise the balance between risk, return and results Engaging with Employers Momentum has successfully facilitated a reciprocal engagement between public and private sector Training Providers and employers. Each outcome is linked with a named employer. Momentum, with over 6,000 places, has facilitated such an important and previously absent mutuality between training providers and employers, and this is a significant achievement. It represents an innovative best practice Further Education and Training model designed to address national conditions. To lose that at a time of sustainable employment uncertainty would represent a significant public loss. A clear model now exists that establishes positive engagement between the state and Employers. Through the Momentum Programme, private and public Training Providers now have the capacity and a critical process for achieving real employment outcomes. This capacity must be retained within the Training Provider and Employer sectors Marginal Employment There is, perhaps, a hint of inevitability about the outcome of marginal employment for those from a background of long-term unemployment. Their personal situation characteristically includes relatively low-skill levels. Following on from previous recommendations, it follows that the experience of Labour Market Activation Programmes that fail to address key underlying factors of unemployment are likely to be less than optimal for the Participant. Where the design of the Momentum intervention differs significantly from previous initiatives is that it attempts to address the low-skill profile with a specific employment-oriented training. It is too early to link skills development with sustained employment, but valid questions that should be addressed through data driven research and observation over time include the following: - Does the Momentum approach facilitate new entry into the labour market, Does the Momentum approach contribute to maintaining employment through enhanced skills development? Does the Momentum approach facilitate moving beyond the types of jobs associated with employment churn? 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 43

44 Does the Momentum approach facilitate or otherwise contribute towards access to the social, economic and cultural benefits associated with career employment? Strategic Programme Future The Momentum approach provides a template for Labour Market Activation Programmes in terms of skill building and placement for ready-to-work, long-term unemployed. It has a strategic value to the state in and of itself and in terms of appropriate application in other national training Programmes. The Momentum approach should be continued to ensure that the enhanced capacity of the public and private sector to design and implement Programmes of shared risk with the state. 9.2 Programme Operations: Recommendations Induction In general, the introduction of the induction period was universally well received by both the Participants and the Training Providers. The purpose of the induction period was to highlight for Participants the employment outcome focus of the Programme and many Training Providers indicate that in a future Programme they would increase the employment-related content of induction and try to bring in more Employers at this stage. The main observation centred on the length of the induction period, with the majority suggesting shortening the induction period. It is perhaps important to focus on the purpose and composite parts of induction to make it work more effectively. It is important to focus on induction phase as an integral part of the 20-week process overarching both training and placement. Its initial importance is linked with its success as a tool to communicate the relationship between the training process and job outcomes target of the Programme, whilst simultaneously fostering an atmosphere of supportive challenge, motivation, skills acquisition, confidence building and teamwork. Induction activity is generally designed to introduce the participant to the real Programme, as opposed to the perceptions of the initiative. To this end it has been shown that induction will be more beneficial if it is a continuing activity that supports and guides the Participant throughout engagement with the Programme Key Transition Points It is clear from Momentum 2 that the transition to placement represents the greatest threat in terms of early exits from the Programme. Although in some cases the exit is to take up an employment opportunity, in general it relates negatively to the scale of the challenge. For Participants, the transition from the training room environment to work placement remains the most challenging aspect of the Momentum experience. Whilst addressing the challenge has fostered some innovation by both Training Providers and Employers to ease the transition, there appears to be a lot more to learn and to build into the Programme. Greater attention must be focused on the transition from the training room to placement. The form of any changes should be based on learning from outcomes, and by adopting best practice planning. Within the structured payments model there may be scope to build in a transition outcome payment, for example. Each change must be rigorously observed and refined over time to develop evidence-based practice to overcome this most persistent of challenges. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 44

45 9.2.3 Momentum and Young People The area of youth unemployment and disengagement from education and employment is a public policy issue across the EU and beyond. It would be true to say that at this time the implementation of the Youth Guarantee initiative has attracted many questions, and that addressing the underlying issues is nowhere close to being declared a success. Momentum 2 has achieved real employment success for young people, creating a compelling case for its retention. There is, however, considerable scope for continued refinement, in the area of job sector employment where it appears that young people are primarily accessing low-quality employment opportunities Data Collection The Momentum Programme has clearly established a benchmark for Labour Market Training Programmes in Ireland in terms of data collection. The Programme must continue to refine its data collection systems to the ESF standard. Data collection should remain a constant over a prolonged period of time to deepen the scientific research and analysis capability, which after the second iteration of the Programme might still be considered preliminary. The current outcomes of the data collection process has identified the need for additional research and analysis in a number of areas, one of which includes the impact of churn on the individual in the current and emerging employment environment. Momentum has set new standards for data collection in the Labour-Market Activation arena, and must continue to operate systems to best practice standards. It should also develop a scientific research and development capability to explore trends that emerge from the application of more rigorous data-collection standards Mixed Target Groups A strategic decision was made, based on learning their experience and outcomes in Momentum 1, to integrate young learners within an all-age training environment. The initial findings suggest that this change was of benefit to young people and ensured a higher success potential in training, placement and employment. A growing body of research literature supports this finding. In the context of commitments made under the EU Youth Guarantee it is imperative to continue to learn from and adapt integration practices across all age groups. In general, young people should not be isolated in their peer group in this type of programming. There is increasing evidence that there are mutual benefits of shared learning in environments that do not discriminate on the basis of age. 645-Momentum 2016 Report r19.doc Page 45

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