The Impacts of Vocational Training Programs on Youth Employment in Mongolia

Transcription

1 The Impacts of Vocational Training Programs on Youth Employment in Mongolia Altantsetseg Batchuluun, Soyolmaa Batbekh, Bayarmaa Dalkhjav, Amartuvshin Sanjmyatav, Tsogt-Erdene Baldandorj National University of Mongolia Sep 3, 2014

2 Outline

3 Randomized controlled trial research on the impacts of short-term vocational training programs on earnings and likelihood of employment of young unemployed in Mongolia. The project consists of three surveys: The baseline survey (Aug 2013-Feb 2014) The first follow-up survey (June-Nov, 2014) The second follow-up survey (June-Nov, 2015)

4 Mongolia is characterized with young population (youth (15-24) share 20% in 2011, NSO) High youth unemployment 22.8% (Population Census 2000) 20.0% (Population Census 2010) Vocational training is one of the oldest and widely used active labor market program. There is no quantitative estimate on the impact of vocational training program on youth employment in Mongolia. Newly established Ministry of Labor is planning to reform its ALMP. Impact evaluation of this program is crucial at this critical moment to inform policy choices.

5 Does short-term vocational training program alone or combined with information increase the likelihood of employment of young unemployed in short and long-run? Employment: person who are engaged in economic activity for pay for more than one hour in the last week (NSO definition) Earnings: nominal amount of the monthly salary in the last month Formality of employment status: employment status is regarded as formal if employers pay part of social security payment

6 Outcome Outline The project is expected to have the following outcomes: In the short-run Enhanced vocational skill and some expreriences through internship Increased effort in job search Trainees will be well informed about job market Better skills to match needs of suitable employers In the long-run The short-term vocational training will increase the probability of youth employment, earnings and formality of the employment.

7 Treatments Outline We have two interventions: Treatment 1: Short term vocational training The program focuses on the following groups of population: Unemployed, more than 70% Other 30%: vulnerable to unemployment, person with diffi culty to find a job, school dropouts The duration of the training varies from 21 days to 45 days. Vocational skills: Driver, Hairdresser, Cook, Construction work skills,... Treatment 2: Information treatment Letter with general information about labor market variables Random assignment at a class level

8 Implementation Outline Applicants aged between 15 and 29 were interviewed by khoroo offi cers. The list of applicants as randomized into treatment and control groups used to be sent to district labor offi cers on a daily basis. District offi cers were in charge of informing the applicants whether they are selected for the training or not.

9 Randomization Outline Randomization units are individuals: young unemployed applicants for training. Random Assignment *344 participants of treatment group did not show up.

10 Descriptive Statistics: Treatment applicants were chosen randomly for the experiment. Dummy variables

11 Descriptive Statistics: Treatment trainees were chosen randomly for the experiment. Dummy variables