Is Informal Normal? Towards More and Better Jobs in Developing Countries

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1 Is Informal Normal? Towards More and Better Jobs in Developing Countries Johannes Jütting and Juan R de Laiglesia IZA/World Bank Conference on Employment and Development Bonn, 4 May 2009

2 Overview Informal employment is: pervasive, persistent even in countries with adequate growth, and hardly a hidden phenomenon. Informal employment is linked to poverty on average but it encompasses very heterogeneous realities differentiated approaches The crisis makes policies to deal with informal employment all the more urgent and relevant 2

3 Is Informal Normal? Towards more and better jobs in developing countries 1 Overview 2 Informal Employment: Size and Trends 3 Welfare implications of job quality 4 Dealing with Informal Employment 3

4 Is Informal Normal? Towards more and better jobs in developing countries 1 Overview 2 Informal Employment: Size and Trends 3 Welfare implications of job quality 4 Dealing with Informal Employment 4

5 Is Informal Normal? Towards more and better jobs in developing countries 1 Overview 2 Informal Employment: Size and Trends 3 Welfare implications of job quality 4 Dealing with Informal Employment 5

6 Definition Informal employment refers to jobs or activities in the production and sales of legal goods and services which are not regulated or protected by the state Statistical implementation (ILO), based on social protection : Informal employment = employment in the informal sector + informal employment in the formal sector Informal sector: self employed (employers, own account workers, family helpers) + wage employees + employers in micro enterprises (less than five workers) Formal sector: Wage employees and paid domestic workers without social protection 6

7 Informal employment is pervasive in the developing world Share of informal employment in total non agricultural employment (%) Sub-Saharan Africa Southern and Eastern Asia Latin America Western Asia Northern Africa Transition countries Source: OECD, Share of informal employment in total non-agricultural employment 7

8 Cross country patterns suggest that the share of informal employment should decline with economic growth Share of informal employment in total non-agricultural employment TCD BFA BEN MLI MOZ KEN ZMB YEM HTI GIN IND PAK BOL HND SYR MDA IDN ECU PHL MARPER PRY GTM SLV LBNTHABRA DOM IRN VEN MEX PAN ZAF EGY KGZ CRI DZA COL TUN TUR ROM ARG CHL RUS PWT: Real GDP OECD per capita Development (Constant Centre Prices: 8Chain series, 2000)

9 yet in many countries, informal employment has persisted Share of informal employment Egypt Guinea India Morocco GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international USD) 9

10 In others it has decreased slightly Share of informal employment GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international USD) Brazil Mexico Thailand Tunisia 10

11 Informal employment and business cycles Self employment is counter cyclical, but less so in countries where it is larger (Loayza and Rigolini, 2006) Instances of pro cyclical behaviour of self employment can be attributed to shocks to non tradeables (Fiess, Fugazza and Maloney, 2006) Evidence from worker flows (Bosch and Maloney, 2007): countercyclical expansion of informality due to fall in job finding rates in the formal sector. We can expect an increase in informal employment in times of crisis (as a share and possibly also in absolute levels) What about composition? 11

12 Is Informal Normal? Towards more and better jobs in developing countries 1 Overview 2 Informal Employment: Size and Trends 3 Welfare implications of job quality 4 Dealing with Informal Employment 12

13 Why is persistent informality worrying? Informal work is very diverse but, on average: The share of informal workers is strongly correlated with poverty rates (700 million informal poor workers) Substantially lower earnings for informal employees: 1.1 of minimum wage in Morocco, India. Less than half of average wage in Mexico, Brazil. Multiple social costs of informality: Shortfall in pension, health and labour safety coverage, fiscal receipts High vulnerability to idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks the crisis! 13

14 Informal employment is strongly correlated with poverty Share of Informal Employment in Total Non Agricultural Employment MAR MEX ARG BRA IRN PAN CRI DOM DZA CHL COL TUN TUR ROM RUS ECU PHL PRY PER BOL GTM HND SLV THA ZAF VEN YEM EGY IDN KEN BEN HTI MLI BFA IND MOZ PAK NER ZMB Share of Population Living Below 2 USD (PPP) a Day Source: Is Informal Normal? and World Bank Group (2007). 14

15 Job mobility and informality High mobility (at least in middle income countries) including between formal and informal in both directions Somewhat surprising labour dynamics: moves from formal to informal not only queuing for the formal jobs. But: mobility depends on the same factors that make better jobs accessible (e.g. educational level and gender) 15

16 Transitions in Mexico (by gender) 2002 Informal salaried Men Formal salaried 2005 Self employed Not working Informal salaried Formal salaried Selfemployed Not working Total Source: Mexican Family Life Survey. First and second waves (2002, 2005) 2002 Informal salaried Women Formal salaried 2005 Self employed Not working Informal salaried Formal salaried Selfemployed Not working Total

17 Transitions in Mexico (by education) 2002 More than 6 years of education Informal salaried Formal salaried 2005 Self employed Not working Informal salaried Formal salaried Selfemployed Not working Total Source: Mexican Family Life Survey. First and second waves (2002, 2005) 2002 Less than 6 years of education Informal salaried Formal salaried 2005 Self employed Not working Informal salaried Formal salaried Selfemployed Not working Total

18 Mobility and welfare Multi tiered informal employment as a useful framework: Relative size? Barriers to mobility: Barriers to physical mobility (portability, entitlement, migration, e.g. Hukou) Access to capital, education, assets (Barret and Carter, 2007; Klasen and Woolard, 2005) Cost of search (Rama, 2003; Bernabè and Stampini, 2008) Social institutions and discrimination (gender, race, age) Also barriers to better informal jobs 18

19 Is Informal Normal? Towards more and better jobs in developing countries 1 Overview 2 Informal Employment: Size and Trends 3 Welfare implications of job quality 4 Dealing with Informal Employment 19

20 What can we do about it? A policy framework Beyond business as usual (growth concerns and poverty alleviation) Improving the quality also of informal jobs Addressing heterogeneity across and within countries (two tiered informal employment) Three common ingredients: More and better jobs Incentives for choosing formality Protecting and promoting informal workers 20

21 More and better jobs Macro economic policies: Crucial importance for employment outcomes Objective setting: Employment creation versus inflation targeting; is there a trade off and what to do about it? Structural and sector policy Employment elasticity of growth and driving sectors Recognise gender differences across and within sectors More policy coherence: social protection and business promotion agenda Labour market reform: better regulation and inclusive institutions Engaging informal workers and their representation 21

22 Providing incentives for the upper tier Business climate reforms to lower the cost of formality plus Reduce regulatory compliance costs, tax administration reform, public goods Enforcement of labour, tax and social security regulations, including strengthening labour inspections Improving the benefits of formality Better governance, public service, linking contributions and benefits 22

23 Promoting and protecting informal workers Inclusive education and training adapted to informal workers, including women, and recognising experience in informal work Social protection Cash transfers are useful poverty alleviation tools Social protection/assistance for workers (universal coverage programmes), including childcare provision mechanisms Public works, work guarantee programmes, unemployment insurance Seeing the shades of grey: Lack of portability of benefits harms the most vulnerable 23

24 Open questions Policy challenges: How do we protect informal workers while not providing disincentives for formalisation? How to promote employment intensive growth that leads to more and better jobs? Research questions How do these findings relate to structural change of an economy? What is the origin of the apparent decrease in the link between growth and formal work? Link to globalisation? New forms of employment? 24

25 Thank you

26 What s new on informal employment? From old presumptions to emerging evidence Informal employment to gradually disappear with development Being informal = Being poor Informal employment = immobility Policy agenda: Policies to formalise the informal Growth is not sufficient to eradicate informal employment Informal employment is heterogeneous People move between employment states Policy agenda: Multi tiered approach to policy 26

27 Share of Self Employment in Total Non Agricultural Employment 27

28 Earnings in informal work: low and heterogeneous Source: Is Informal Normal?, 2009 Notes: *Relative to average wages; definitions and years vary, see table 2.5 for details 28

29 The case of India 29

30 Informal employment and the crisis Recent crises suggest: Informal Employment Models of cyclical behaviour of Informal Employment: dualist, entrepreneurship for non tradable sectors: IE Return migrants: Informal Employment 20 million people in China return to rural areas, 95 % unskilled Reduced remittances encourages 30

31 GDP Growth and Informal Employment in Argentina (Argentine Economic Crisis) Source: ILO, World Bank, OECD 31

32 The gender dimension of informal employment Economic research and policy focused on Labour Force Participation (LFP) Neglect of quality of jobs Working women are not systematically more likely to be informal but they are overrepresented in worse forms of informal employment and earn substantially less The causes largely overlap with causes of low LFP: social institutions, limited entitlement to resources and assets, limited freedom to move. 32

33 Women in informal employment 33

34 Gender (earnings) gaps in informal employment Notes: (1) Years and coverage: Morocco (2002), Tunisia (1997 and 2002), Ethiopia (1996), Kenya (1999), Brazil (1997), Colombia (1996), Mexico (1994), Haiti (2004), Lebanon (2004), Turkey (2000). (2) Data for Ethiopia, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Turkey are for urban areas only. Source: Various sources, see (2009), Chapter 2 for details. 34

35 Composition of non agricultural employment Source:,

36 Transitions in and out of informal work (Mexico) Transitions (in % of individuals aged 20 to 60) in % Formal Informal Without job Total Formal Informal Without job Total Source: Mexican Family Life Survey. First and second waves (2002, 2005) 36

37 Selfemployed Who gains from mobility? (Mexico) Wage employment 19 % 13 % Formal 67% of the labour force Not Working 13 % 18 % 17% 18% Informal 37

38 Who gains from mobility? Education (Mexico) Wage employment Selfemployed 19 % 13 % Formal 67% of the labour force More than 6: 21% 6 and less: 7% More than 6: 15% 6 and less: 26% More than 6: 23% 6 and less: 14% Not Working More than 6: 17% 6 and less: 21% Informal 38

39 Who gains from mobility? Gender (Mexico) Wage employment Men: 14% Women: 8% Selfemployed Men: 19% Women: 14% Formal Men: 28% Women: 13% Men: 22% Women: 14% Men: 39% Women: 10% Not Working Informal Men: 10% Women: 31% 39

40 From monolithic informal employment Formal Informal Not Working 40

41 to two tiered informal employment Formal Informal Upper Tier Informal Lower Tier Not Working 41

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