Catapulting Tanzania into a Middle- Income Country: Demographic Dividend Study Dr. Pasiens Mapunda, Deputy Country Representative, Pathfinder

Transcription

1 Catapulting Tanzania into a Middle- Income Country: Demographic Dividend Study Dr. Pasiens Mapunda, Deputy Country Representative, Pathfinder International Tanzania

2 REASONS FOR INITIATING THE STUDY Reframing family planning (FP) Moving beyond health to development Integrating FP into an overall development agenda Vision 2025 and Big Results Now initiative

3 Defining the demographic dividend The Demographic Dividend is the economic benefit arising from a significant increase in the ratio of working-aged adults relative to young dependents. When birth rates decline significantly, the age structure shifts to have more working-aged adults, opening a window of opportunity for accelerated economic growth through increased productivity, greater household savings, and lower costs for basic social services for children.

4 Study Objectives

5 STUDY OBJECTIVES Examine Tanzania s prospects for harnessing the demographic dividend in light of Vision 2025 and aspirations to follow Malaysia s development plan, as articulated in the Big Results Now initiative Enhance understanding of the demographic dividend concept and outline policy options that can be used by different stakeholders to optimize the country s potential Explore the relative impact of various demographic and economic policies on the country s development prospects between 2010 and 2050

6 Study Methodology

7 STUDY METHODOLOGY Review of past (and current) economic and demographic opportunities and challenges Data analysis Included deriving ratios and trend analyses using charts and tables Modeling the potential impact of the demographic dividend on socioeconomic development using Future Group s DemDiv modeling tool Conducted through a workshop involving researchers from all institutions involved Determining key policy options for harnessing the demographic dividend

8 A SUCCESS STORY FROM MALAYSIA Between one-quarter to one-third of economic growth since 1970 in the whole of East and Southeast Asia can be attributed to the demographic dividend (Bloom and Williamson, 1998; Mason, 2001) The economic success was propelled by sustained investments in: Education Health Family planning, and Economic reform

9 POLICY SCENARIOS CONSIDERED THROUGH MODELING

10 Summary of Key Findings

11 KEY FINDINGS

12 FINDINGS (CONT.) The business as usual scenario will result in a high child dependency burden while the combined model would produce a huge labor surplus by 2050

13 FINDINGS (CONT.) As fertility declines, child dependency ratios decline and the working-aged population increases, creating a window of opportunity for accelerated economic growth

14 FINDINGS (CONT.) Reality Check: Tanzania s economic boom is neither reducing poverty nor creating enough jobs, similar to many other African countries High levels of underemployment and reliance on the informal sector, especially among women and youth Heavy reliance on mining and mineral resources, which are often mismanaged and are not labor-intensive Agricultural sector, which provides livelihoods to many, is still largely underdeveloped and vulnerable to climate change Rapid but poorly managed urbanization not effectively used as an engine for socioeconomic development High child dependency burden remains one of the key factors undermining development

15 FINDINGS (CONT.) In order to EARN the demographic dividend, countries like Tanzania should speed up fertility declines and invest in the other four policy wheels

16 FINDINGS (CONT.) YES, Tanzania can harness the demographic dividend but much more needs to be done 1. Enhance political will for a strong family planning program; Invest in education and general empowerment of women 2. Enhance investments in public health for greater child survival and a healthy workforce 3. Adopt economic policies and reforms that help develop industries of comparative advantage to ensure mass job creation and enhance savings and investments 4. Improve governance and accountable use of pubic resources invest in people!

17 twitter.com/pathfinderint facebook.com/pathfinderinternational Youtube/user/PathfinderInt Acknowledgements: Pathfinder International (Tanzania) Mustafa Kudrati Patrick Kinemo Pasiens Mapunda Josiah Otege School of Economics, University of Dar es Salaam Joel Silas Lincoln Wilhelm Ngasa Eliab Luvanda John Mduma African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP) Eliya Msiyaphazi Zulu Eunice Mueni William Rose Oronje Samson Wasao Health Policy Project, Futures Group Scott Moreland