National Perspectives U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Transcription

1 National Perspectives U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Rebecca Rust Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics (OEUS) PMP Summit Arlington, VA September 29, U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

2 What s New in OEUS New data on persons with professional certifications and licenses added to the CPS 2016 annual averages 17.6 percent of labor force held active certifications or licenses 22.3 percent had licenses; 2.7 percent had certifications Credentials were more prevalent in healthcare practitioners and technical occupations; legal occupations; and education, training, and library occupations People with credentials had more education, higher earnings, and lower unemployment rates; also were more likely full-time, female, and in the public sector 2 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

3 What s New in OEUS Contingent workers supplement to the CPS was fielded in May 2017 Contingent workers are those who do not have an explicit or implicit contract for long-term employment Objective is to obtain information on contingent workers and alternative employment arrangements independent contractors on-call workers temporary-help workers contract company workers Last contingent worker CPS supplement was U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

4 What s New in OEUS Contingent worker data expected to be released in early 2018: Whether the job is temporary How long the worker expects to work The main reason people expect to be in jobs for a short time How long the worker had held the job Workers preference for contingent or noncontingent work arrangements Contingent workers health insurance coverage and eligibility for employer-provided pension plans 4 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

5 What s New in OEUS Results on testing Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity questions in the CPS were released September 29, 2017 Testing focused on proxy reporting Sensitivity Recommended next steps 5 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

6 What s New in OEUS 2018 President s budget includes a report on cost and design for a survey of employer-provided training QCEW CES Accelerated publication of data release Conducting research on appending a quick business survey to the annual refiling survey Published research BED data on age and size of establishments Standardization of industry structures to improve comparability across states and metro areas New interactive chart package on the state release 6 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

7 What s New in OEUS OES Eliminating long survey forms (phased out in 2015) Developing a new data processing system utilizing a central server Working on autocoding Moving toward time series Using blasts and tweets May 2017 estimates will include less occupation and industry detail. Implementation of 2018 SOC depends on OMB publication timing. Estimates will be based on hybrid structure. LAUS Fine-tuning fourth generation models As of January 2018, reducing the amount of New England areas supported 7 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

8 Improve Timeliness of Projections Data Plan for annual release of projections Targeting beginning, for release in 2020 Advance release date from December to October/September October 24, 2017 release of projections September 2019 release of projections Update the Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) in real time March 2016 release of OES wage data already in OOH 8 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

9 Improve Accessibility to Projections Data and Information New framework to evaluate prior projections Publication expected by Spring 2018 Increase transparency of methods Revised BLS Handbook of Methods for projections will be released around the October 2017 projections release Monthly Labor Review article on the full employment assumption to be published Fall U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

10 Additional Employment Projections Initiatives Adding career videos to Occupational Outlook Handbook profiles Implementing the new separations method projections will use the new method BLS is supporting the PMP in developing a communication strategy for explaining the change to customers Developing long-term IT plan for projections systems 10 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

11 Bragging Points The Occupational Outlook Handbook averages 4.4 million unique views per month, about 46% of the BLS total Projections data are highlighted in some of the top blog posts on the DOL blog Smashing Cool 11 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

12 12 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov Career Videos

13 How States Determine Jobs in Demand 13 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

14 How To Determine Jobs in Demand Use of LMI can improve the alignment of education and training to better meet the hiring demands of business This can be done by determining in-demand occupations 14 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

15 How to Determine Jobs in Demand Using BLS and State/Area Projections Fastest growing occupations (by percent) from the state s Employment Projections program It could be all those occupations growing faster than the average or some other selected growth rate threshold percent Fastest growing occupations (by percent) from the state s Employment Projections program that also meet a selected wage threshold It could be those fastest growing occupations that pay a wage equal to or greater than $15.00 per hour, for example Fastest growing occupations (by percent) from the state s Employment Projections program that also meet a selected threshold for number of new jobs It could be those fastest growing occupations that also gain at least a 1,000 new jobs or more per year, for example 15 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

16 How to Determine Jobs in Demand Using BLS and State/Area Projections (Continued) Fastest growing occupations (by percent) from the state s Employment Projections program that come from specified targeted industries for economic development Manufacturing could be targeted, for example Fastest growing occupations (by percent) from the state s Employment Projections program for a specified education/training level It could be for the fastest occupations requiring more than a high school degree but less than a bachelor s degree, for example Highest number of openings (by specified level) from the state s Employment Projections program This listing could have thresholds added on as shown above, such as wages, targeted industries, and/or education levels 16 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

17 How To Determine Jobs in Demand Using alternative data bases or customized employer needs Highest number of job openings or fastest gain in openings from a Job Vacancy Survey or Skills-Gap Survey This could be from a state survey that asks employers about unmet hiring needs Highest number of online job ads or fastest gain in job ads by occupation This could be from the state s job bank or other source, such as Help Wanted OnLine from the Conference Board, for example Highest number or fastest growing online job ads and/or those hardest to fill This could be reposted online jobs Largest gap between occupational demand and supply This could be comparing demand occupations (from Employment Projections or online ads) compared to supply (which could be training completers and job seekers registered in the state s career centers) Employer needs for customized training to meet specific hiring needs This could be from business partnerships, or a new firm opening up in an area, or from coordination efforts of business, workforce, economic development, and education all working together 17 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

18 Which methods are states actually using? Results of the BLOC survey (DRAFT) 73% - growth rate from employment projections 73% - projected job openings More states took an ordinal approach, ranking occupations by number of projected job openings, than taking a cardinal approach (only looking at occupations with at least 1,000 projected job openings, for example) 54% - online job ads 30% - targeted industries 30% - supply and demand analysis 20% - job vacancy, skills gap, or other employer surveys Note: 70% use a composite method of more than one metric 18 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

19 Which methods are states actually using? Results of the BLOC survey (Continued) States refine their lists with certain metrics: 70% - occupational wages Usually mean or median OES wage for the state 48% - education and training levels Some states have several lists of jobs in demand covering different levels 23% - base year minimum employment cutoff 18% - projected number of new jobs One state looks at OES 3 year comparisons 19 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

20 Future Ways to Determine Jobs in Demand OES as a Time Series Data that are statistically designed to be measured and compared over time are a time series Occupations that have both positive employment and wage growth can indicate that demand is greater than supply This data series can be considered a new labor market indicator of current (or short-term) indemand occupations 20 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

21 Improved alignment of education and training with the hiring needs of business using in-demand occupations does what? This improved alignment drives the allocation of training resources, leading to: Higher placement and retention rates Improved reemployment Lowered UI benefit and welfare costs Stronger business expansion and retention Expanded economic growth Improved standards of living 21 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov

22 Contact Information Rebecca Rust Assistant Commissioner Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS bls.gov