DONCASTER MBC EMPLOYMENT LAND STUDY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. Executive Summary

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1 DONCASTER MBC EMPLOYMENT LAND STUDY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary December 2008

2 ROGER TYM & PARTNERS 17 St Ann s Square Manchester M2 7PW t f e manchester@tymconsult.com w This document is formatted for double-sided printing. M986A

3 CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 The Study...1 Key Policy Background...1 Local Economy...1 Property Market Overview...2 Qualitative Site Assessment...2 Forecast Demand...3 Identifying New Sites...4 Recommendations...4 Plan, Monitor and Manage...5

4 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Study 1.1 Doncaster Metropolitan Borough Council commissioned this study in January 2006, as part of the evidence base for the preparation of the employment land 1 policies in their forthcoming Local Development Framework and other Development Plan Documents. 1.2 The broad scope of the study is to: identify the need for employment land in Doncaster up to 2021, and strategies for managing its phasing, particularly taking into account the prospects for growth at Robin Hood Airport Doncaster Sheffield (RHADS) and the impact of the FARRRS road scheme. Key Policy Background 1.3 At the regional level there appears to be a surplus of employment land available, but this does not preclude new allocations where there is evidence this is required to satisfy new market demands. Job creation remains a priority, and thus ensuring that there is a supply of appropriate and available sites is still crucial to the restructuring of the South Yorkshire economy. 1.4 There is a focus on Doncaster for employment growth as a a sub-regional centre. Development should be directed towards existing urban areas and their periphery, or alternatively at nodes within transport corridors, with brownfield sites being developed in advance of greenfield wherever possible. Regional and local policies recognise that Doncaster has a distinct advantage as a location for the distribution and logistics industries in terms of its relationship to the national transport network. 1.5 Realising the potential of Robin Hood Airport Doncaster Sheffield (RHADS) is also a regional priority. There is also a need to identify strategic sites and where resources need to be targeted to ensure ready site availability. This will build upon the achievements of the Objective 1 Programme in providing sites and infrastructure which have supported the transition away from an economy dominated by primary industries and manufacturing. Local Economy 1.6 Doncaster s economic structure is not especially favourable for future employment growth, despite evident restructuring and recent job increases. It still has high proportions of industrial activities which are expected to reduce in scale at the national level. Also, there is a relatively small base in financial and business services from which to expand, combined with a relatively high proportion of people employed in public services. Although this sector has seen a period of recent expansion, this is not expected to provide scope for equivalent growth in the in the future. 1.7 Doncaster has a relatively low proportion of jobs which occupy business space (B space), due mainly to the low representation of office based activities, not the industrial and warehousing activities. This reflects the historic production base to the Doncaster 1 Employment space (property and land) in this study refers to the Business Use Classes, B1, B2 and B8 and sui generis uses which occupy similar space. It covers offices and industrial and distribution space. It excludes many activities which do provide employment, but operate in other kinds of space, such as retail, leisure, education and health. Roger Tym & Partners 1

5 economy and office based sectors will increase as a share of total employment in the future. 1.8 Despite the unfavourable economic structure, Doncaster has performed well in terms of job growth in recent years, with an increase of some 24,000 jobs between This rate of increase was better then the national, regional and sub-regional averages. Although Doncaster has also outperformed Sheffield, Rotherham has seen an even higher rate of employment growth. Property Market Overview 1.9 Doncaster has grown in strength as a commercial location in recent years as the continued growth of the both the office and industrial property market sectors indicates. There has been significant investment into the Doncaster economy in recent years which has resulted in successful new development and major projects under way and more in the pipeline. Developers and investors are taking interest in the Borough and recent investment has helped to attracted new businesses Doncaster competes reasonably well with its neighbouring boroughs in provision of commercial floorspace and is particularly strong compared to the other boroughs in the provision of warehousing floorspace Doncaster s stock of industrial and warehousing accommodation is located primarily at: several motorway accessible sites housing good quality modern units; several major industrial areas throughout the Borough composed of a mix of older and newer units; and at RHADS. The Doncaster industrial market is buoyant in both the distribution sector and the local market for smaller good quality units. The distribution market, in particular, is strong in Doncaster although there is a considerable stock of available accommodation both in Doncaster and in the surrounding market area In-town office development has been constrained through lack of available sites, and as a result there is little good quality modern office accommodation in central Doncaster. Plans for the Waterfront area and Civic & Cultural Quarter areas of central Doncaster include proposals for substantial new office development in and around the Town Centre over the next few years. Qualitative Site Assessment 1.13 We have undertaken qualitative appraisals of 42 existing employment sites, 19 allocated employment sites and 34 potential employment sites There is 934 ha of Existing employment land in 42 sites across Doncaster Borough. These have been rated as follows: Very Good sites - 1 site covering 86 ha (3.6 ha available) Good sites - 14 sites covering 530 ha (12 ha available) Average sites - 23 sites covering 317 ha (31 ha available) Poor sites - 4 sites covering 20 ha (0 ha available) 1.15 Around 16 ha of land remain available for development in the Very good or Good sites. If vacated the poor quality sites could be considered for release from employment use or for mixed use development There is a total of some 588 ha of land in 19 allocated sites across the Borough, of which some 355 ha remains available for development. From this assessment this land has been rated in quality terms as follows: Roger Tym & Partners 2

6 Very Good sites - 2 sites covering 175 ha (70 ha available) Good sites - 4 sites covering 128 ha (95 ha available) Average sites - 10 sites covering 269 ha (175 ha available) Poor sites - 3 sites covering 16 ha (15 ha available) 1.17 A total of 165 ha of land remains undeveloped in Very Good and Good allocated sites across the Borough. Combined with the land available in the Very Good and Good quality existing employment sites, this suggests that there remains around 181 ha of good quality employment land available in the borough We have assessed a total of around 1,724 ha of land in 34 potential employment development sites across the Borough. By definition, this is all potentially available for development, subject to the sites being acceptable in terms of other planning and sustainable development criteria. As a result of this market assessment this land has been rated in quality terms as follows: Very Good sites - 2 sites covering 96 ha Good sites - 14 sites covering 891 ha Average sites - 14 sites covering 532 ha Poor sites - 4 sites covering 205 ha Forecast Demand 1.19 To calculate the forecast demand for employment land we undertake a three stage process. Firstly, we identify the demand for employment land, based on forecasts of future employment. We then calculate planned supply based on allocations and commitments identified in the planning system, and finally we assess market balance the relationship between forecast demand for, and planned supply of, employment land To provide a better sensitivity for planning purposes three different forecast scenarios were employed, based on forecasts prepared by Experian Business Strategies Over the twenty year period from , the baseline scenario anticipates employment growth of approaching 17% (18,400). By contrast, the enhanced growth scenario anticipates a further 9,500 jobs on top of the trend based scenario and expects employment growth to rise by 25%. The housing led scenario results in overall employment growth of 42,300 (or 37%) The next step translates the forecast employment change by sector into space requirements, and then into future demand for land, in the period 2001 to The results for each scenario expressed in terms of net gain in land area after losses to non-employment uses are as follows: The baseline scenario suggests that the stock of industrial land should increase by 22ha, the stock of warehousing land by 53ha and for the stock of offices land to increase by 7ha. The enhanced growth scenario suggests that the stock of industrial land should increase by 33.6ha, the stock of warehousing land by 67ha and for the stock of office land to increase by 11ha. The housing-led scenario suggests that the stock of industrial land should increase by 33ha, the stock of warehousing land by 211 ha and the stock of office land to increase by 31ha The Borough has potential to attract further regional and national inward investment in the strategic warehousing sector which is over and above the demand suggested by Roger Tym & Partners 3

7 the employment forecasts. Such investment is supported by the emerging regional policy framework, but it remains difficult to quantify this potential footloose demand. Nevertheless, it is clear that the demand for strategic warehousing in the short term is extremely high, fuelled by the restructuring of retailers distribution networks and the lack of land in more traditional locations to the south of the region. The take up of land for warehousing since 2001 has averaged 17 to 25 ha each year More generally, how much employment growth can and should realistically be accommodated in Doncaster will depend on the quality of the available labour market as much as available employment land. While the forecasting model does take account of the labour supply as a variable affecting employment growth, the assessment of the extent of its influence on employment growth is outside the scope of this work. Identifying New Sites 1.25 Under all three employment forecast scenarios Doncaster would appear, at first sight, to have enough currently identified employment land (based on the ELS findings) to meet forecast market requirements; indeed, the Borough would seem to have on paper oversupply even allowing for competition and churn across all three Use Classes. However, some 36 ha of the existing and allocated sites has been assessed as being poor, and a further 149 ha of allocated land is judged to be average/poor (grade 3/4) in terms of market appeal. If these are eliminated from the future supply (through de-allocation or possibly development for non-employment uses) then a replacement amount of employment land will need to be identified to maintain the status quo in supply terms Also, should the Council decide to pursue a growth strategy with respect to the strategic distribution sector then new sites specifically for this purpose will be required. A number of potential future development sites assessed as part of this study are considered likely to be attractive to the market for such development, principally along the M18 corridor The existing supply of office sites also appears to constitute a large oversupply. This is in part is due to the relatively small base from which the forecasts grow, and there is little apparent need to identify new office locations in the medium term beyond the known potential at RHADS and in the town centre. However, the office market in Doncaster town centre in particular is underdeveloped and we anticipate that the completion of the key regeneration projects in the town centre will serve to stimulate growth in this market. The proposals for the Waterfront and the Civic & Cultural Quarter redevelopment in particular are making good progress and will help to stimulate a town centre market for offices that has been stagnating at best during recent years. However, in light of the changing economic structure towards a more knowledge based economy and therefore increased demand for office accommodation, the take up and supply of sites for office developments should be closely monitored so that new sites can be identified in the medium term if it becomes necessary. Recommendations 1.28 Thus, in order to provide for flexibility and allow Doncaster to improve its competitiveness in the region, we recommend that: i) the poor (score 4) and average/poor (score 3/4) sites be excluded from the available supply, so that the effective residual supply reduces to 232 hectares, as 2 From DMBC applications and VOA Floorspace change data Roger Tym & Partners 4

8 ii) shown in Table 5.6 and with the Council taking a flexible stance in relation to proposals for housing and other non-employment uses on this sub-set of sites; sufficient employment land is made available in the period 2001 to 2021 to meet the requirements identified under the mid-point of the enhanced growth and housing-led scenarios that is for a net gain after losses to other non-employment uses of approximately 200 hectares; iii) the Council should safeguard all of the existing sites and allocations that we have classed as very good or good in Appendix 7, so as to deter any proposals for alternative non-employment uses and minimise hope values; iv) the Council takes a pro-active stance in encouraging inward investment projects in the strategic distribution sector, given the competitive location advantage that the Borough enjoys in relation to the motorway network and links to the Humber Ports; and that v) the Council continues to promote office employment opportunities in the town centre and at RHADS, subject to the sequential approach. Plan, Monitor and Manage 1.29 Employment forecasts are uncertain, but it is important to use them as they are one of the few tools available to help plan for the long term, alongside consideration of past developments. Furthermore, planning for the long term is especially difficult as good planning should really take account of the long and the short term; time obviously does not finish at the end date of the Plan period The best way to avoid difficulties is to Plan, Monitor and Manage. This means that that both demand forecasts are reviewed periodically and supply is continuously monitored, so that, if there are changes in circumstance, planning policy can be amended accordingly. Roger Tym & Partners 5