Econ 882 Empirical Macroeconomics

Transcription

1 Econ 882 Empirical Macroeconomics 2nd-year PhD module Fall 2018 Instructor: Matthias Kehrig Office: 237 Social Sciences Office hours: by appt. Office phone: Website: Lecture: Mondays 4:40-7:10 in Social Sciences 327 Course Description This course aims at familiarizing you with the current research in modern empirical macroeconomics. We will go over main topics of macroeconomics where heterogeneous agents play a key role such as: productivity and reallocation, uncertainty, inequality and polarization, trade and labor markets. Organization, assessment and scheduling are subject to change at my discretion. Taking Prof. Lanteri s course Macroeconomics with heterogeneous agents complements this one to gain computational/quantitative skills. Organization Classes will consist of a student presenting a paper ( 30 min/< 15 slides) of those papers marked with an asterisk below and me giving an overview of the rest of the indicated literature. This student presentation should cover: (1) motivation and context; (2) data and empirical approach (identification, empirical methods) and (4) results. Students should present with an eye towards how the paper is written, what you would have done differently/improved and what extensions are possible. The slides for this class presentation need to be ed to me one day in advance matthias.kehrig@duke.edu. 1

2 Assessment Class attendance is mandatory, though it is not part of your final grade. Course grade is composed of a short research proposal to be presented at the end of the class and a presentation of recent research papers to be assigned in the first class. There will also be some empirical assignments. Research Proposal: Every student taking the course for credit must develop a short research proposal. This should sketch out a research idea to the scope of an AER Papers & Proceedings paper (10 pages of text and a couple of tables and graphs). The proposal must be new and not be developed for another class. The purpose of it is to develop several research ideas early in your PhD and then pick good ones to pursue more seriously as a 2nd year paper/proposal. The paper should have: a research question that is important; data, empirical methodology and identification; preliminary results and outlook how to proceed in terms of a model. The projects must be discussed with me by Sept 15 and will be presented (20 min) in the class on Sept 24. Classmates and I will discuss the project and provide feedback. By October 10, you will hand in the final version of the paper. Tentative course schedule Aug 27 Productivity and reallocation Reallocation Syverson (2011), Foster, Haltiwanger, and Syverson (2008)*, Akcigit, Acemoglu, Bloom, and Kerr (2013)*, Kehrig (2015), Giroud and Müller (2015), Decker, Haltiwanger, Jarmin, and Miranda (2017a,b), Bartelsmann, Haltiwanger, and Scarpetta (2013), Eisfeldt and Rampini (2006) Trade & Labor Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013)*, Bloom, Draca, and Reenen (2009) Technology Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017, 2018), Davis, Haltiwanger, Jarmin, and Miranda (2006), Acemoglu, Autor, Dorn, Hanson, and Price (2014) Sept 3 (Mis-)Allocation Misallocation Hsieh and Klenow (2009)*, Restuccia and Rogerson (2008)*, Hopenhayn (2014) Firm finance Chodorow-Reich (2014)*, Midrigan and Xu (2014), Buera and Moll (2015), Christiano, Motto, and Rostagno (2014), Gopinath, Kalemli-Özcan, Karabarbounis, and Villegas-Sanchez (2017) 2

3 Non-convexities Asker, Collard-Wexler, and De Loecker (2014)*, Bayer, Mecikovsky, and Meier (2015), Khan and Thomas (2013)*, Khan, Senga, and Thomas (2014), David and Venkateswaran (2017)* Sept 10 Uncertainty Endog. Volatility Information Time-varying volatility, uncertainty and information Bloom (2014), Jurado, Ludvigson, and Ng (2015), Bloom, Floetotto, Jaimovich, Saporta-Eksten, and Terry (2018)*, Bachmann and Bayer (2013) Ilut, Kehrig, and Schneider (2018)*, Berger and Vavra (2016), Ludvigson, Ma, and Ng (2016), Salgado, Guvenen, and Bloom (2015), David, Hopenhayn, and Venkateswaran (2016)*, Senga (2016)*, Fajgelbaum, Schaal, and Taschereau-Dumouchel (2017) Sept 17 Inequality Risk Polarization Inequality and polarization Piketty and Saez (2003)*, Piketty and Zucman (2014)*, Chetty, Hendren, Kline, and Saez (2014)* Guvenen, Ozkan, and Song (2014)*, Song, Price, Guvenen, and Bloom (2015) Autor and Dorn (2013)*, Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013), Jaimovich and Siu (2015) Sept 24 Oct 10 Student presentations Project due References Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo. Robots and jobs: Evidence from US labor markets. NBER Working Paper No , Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo. The race between machine and man: Implications of technology for growth, factor shares and employment. American Economic Review, 108(6): , June Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, and Brendan Price. Return of the Solow Paradox? IT, productivity, and employment in US manufacturing. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 104(5): , May Ufuk Akcigit, Daron Acemoglu, Nicholas Bloom, and William Kerr. Innovation, reallocation and growth. NBER Working Paper No , April

4 John Asker, Allan Collard-Wexler, and Jan De Loecker. Dynamic inputs and resource (mis)allocation. Journal of Political Economy, 122(5), October David H. Autor and David Dorn. The growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market. American Economic Review, 103(5): , August David H. Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson. The China syndrome: Local labor market effects of import competition in the United States. American Economic Review, 103(6): , October Rüdiger Bachmann and Christian Bayer. Wait-and-See business cycles? Economics, 60(6): , September Journal of Monetary Eric J. Bartelsmann, John C. Haltiwanger, and Stefano Scarpetta. Cross-country differences in productivity: The role of allocation and selection. American Economic Review, 103(1): , February Christian Bayer, Ariel M. Mecikovsky, and Matthias Meier. simply be technology choice? Working Paper, Productivity dispersions: Could it David Berger and Joseph Vavra. Shocks vs responsiveness: What drives time-varying dispersion? Working Paper, Nicholas Bloom. Fluctuations in uncertainty. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2): , Spring Nicholas Bloom, Mirko Draca, and John Van Reenen. Trade induced technical change? the impact of Chinese imports on innovation, diffusion and productivity. Working Paper, Nicholas Bloom, Max Floetotto, Nir Jaimovich, Itay Saporta-Eksten, and Stephen Terry. Really uncertain business cycles. Econometrica, 86(3): , May Francisco J. Buera and Benjamin Moll. Aggregate implications of a credit crunch: The importance of heterogeneity. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(3):1 42, July Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Patrick Kline, and Emmanuel Saez. Where is the land of opportunity? the geography of intergenerational mobility in the United States. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(4): , November Gabriel Chodorow-Reich. The employment effects of credit market disruptions: Firm-level evidence from the financial crisis. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(1):1 59, February Lawrence J. Christiano, Roberto Motto, and Massimo Rostagno. Risk shocks. American Economic Review, 104(1):27 65, January

5 Joel M. David and Venky Venkateswaran. Capital misallocation: Frictions or distortions? NBER Working Paper No , February Joel M. David, Hugo A. Hopenhayn, and Venky Venkateswaran. Information, misallocation, and aggregate productivity. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(2): , May Steven J. Davis, John C. Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, and Javier Miranda. Volatility and dispersion in business growth rates: Publicly traded versus privately held firms. In Daron Acemoglu, Kenneth Rogoff, and Michael Woodford, editors, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, volume 21, chapter 2, pages University of Chicago Press, May Ryan A. Decker, John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda. Declining dynamism, allocative effciency, and the productivity slowdown. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 107(5): , May 2017a. Ryan A. Decker, John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda. Changing business dynamism and productivity: Shocks vs. responsiveness. Working Paper, 2017b. Andrea L. Eisfeldt and Adriano A. Rampini. Capital reallocation and liquidity. Journal of Monetary Economics, 53(3): , April Pablo Fajgelbaum, Eduardo Schaal, and Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel. Uncertainty traps. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(4): , November Lucia Foster, John C. Haltiwanger, and Chad Syverson. Reallocation, firm turnover, and efficiency: Selection on productivity or profitability? American Economic Review, 98(1): , March Xavier Giroud and Holger M. Müller. Capital and labor reallocation within firms. Journal of Finance, 70(4): , August Gita Gopinath, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Loukas Karabarbounis, and Carolina Villegas-Sanchez. Capital allocation and productivity in South Europe. Working Paper, 132(4): , November Fatih Guvenen, Serdar Ozkan, and Jae Song. The nature of countercyclical income risk. Journal of Political Economy, 122(3): , June Hugo A. Hopenhayn. Firms, misallocation, and aggregate productivity: A review. Annual Review of Economics, 6: , August Chang-Tai Hsieh and Peter J. Klenow. Misallocation and manufacturing TFP in China and India. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(4), November

6 Cosmin Ilut, Matthias Kehrig, and Martin Schneider. Slow to hire, quick to fire: Employment dynamics with asymmetric responses to news. Journal of Political Economy, 126(5), October Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu. Working Paper, The trend is the cycle: Job polarization and jobless recoveries. Kyle Jurado, Sydney C. Ludvigson, and Serena Ng. Measuring uncertainty. American Economic Review, 105(3): , March Matthias Kehrig. The cyclical nature of the productivity distribution. Working Paper, Aubhik Khan and Julia K. Thomas. Credit shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an economy with production heterogeneity. Journal of Political Economy, 121(6): , December Aubhik Khan, Tatsuro Senga, and Julia K. Thomas. Default risk and aggregate fluctuations in an economy with production heterogeneity. Working Paper, Sydney C. Ludvigson, Sai Ma, and Serena Ng. Uncertainty and business cycles: Exogenous impulse or endogenous response? Working Paper, Virgiliu Midrigan and Daniel Y. Xu. Finance and misallocation: Evidence from plant-level data. American Economic Review, 104(2): , February Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez. Income inequality in the United States, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(1):1 39, February Thomas Piketty and Gabriel Zucman. Capital is back: Wealth-income ratios in rich countries Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(3): , Diego Restuccia and Richard Rogerson. Policy distortions and aggregate productivity with heterogeneous establishments. Review of Economic Dynamics, 11(4): , October Sergio Salgado, Fatih Guvenen, and Nicholas Bloom. Skewed business cycles. Working Paper, Tatsuro Senga. A new look at uncertainty shocks: Imperfect information and misallocation. Working Paper, Jae Song, David J. Price, Fatih Guvenen, and Nicholas Bloom. Firming up inequality. Working Paper, Chad Syverson. What determines productivity? Journal of Economic Literature, 49(2): , June