DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS

Transcription

1 CENTERS OF EXCELLENCE Inform Connect Advance DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS SACRAMENTO REGION March 2017 Prepared by: Centers of Excellence Los Rios Community College District

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary... 3 Introduction... 5 Occupational Overview... 6 Employer Characteristics... 8 Machinist & CNC Operator Employment Wages Employment Projections Recruitment & Hiring Challenges Experience, Credentialing & Education Production Machines Used & Design/Drawing Methods Partnership Opportunities for Training & Apprencticeships Conclusion & Recommendations Acknowledgements The Center of Excellence (COE) would like to acknowledge and thank Valley Vision and members of the Next Economy Advanced Manufacturing Cluster initiative for providing research and input for this study. We would also like to extend our sincere appreciation to the following individuals, who responded to the COE s inquiries about their programs to inform the research: Steve Dicus, Deputy Sector Navigator, Advanced Manufacturing, Sacramento (North) Region Gabriel Meehan, Associate Vice President, Economic and Workforce Development; and Donnetta Webb, Dean, Advanced Technology, Sacramento City College Daren Otten, Dean, Applied Academics, Yuba College Carol Pepper-Kittredge, Director, Center for Applied Competitive Technologies (CACT), Sierra College Michael Sloan, Dean, Business, Agriculture, Industry, Technology & Safety (BAITS); and Rick Osbrink, Instructor, Industrial Technology, Shasta College 2 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY To assess the demand and training needs for machinists and computer numerical control (CNC) operators, the Center of Excellence conducted a survey of 89 organizations that employ workers in manufacturing and advanced manufacturing. Research included survey findings as well as analysis of secondary industry and occupational data. Key findings include: Demand: Survey respondents project high rates of growth for machinists and CNC operators. In the next 12 months, they expect to add 40 CNC operators (+12% increase over 2016 employment) and 24 machinists (+6%). Over the next three years, respondents project adding 136 CNC operators (+42%) and 93 machinists (+22%). Employment: Secondary data analysis shows 850 workers in the region associated with the occupations of machinists and CNC operators. The survey sample, representing perhaps less than 10% of the region s manufacturing employers, had 750 workers in these two categories. Including additional occupations in future research studies could provide a more comprehensive count of the available labor supply for these occupations in the region. It could also shed light on additional related skills and opportunities for training. Industry Mixed Signals: Projected demand in the survey results should be weighed against secondary historical industry and occupational data. Manufacturing industries that employ machinists and CNC operators reduced employment overall by 7% between 2005 and 2015 in the Sacramento region (a loss of more than 3,000 jobs). About half of the industries added employees while half reduced employment. Similarly, data analysis shows overall job losses of 7% for machinists and CNC operators between 2005 and Industry Diversity, Small Companies: Typically, 126 manufacturing industries employ CNC machine tool programmers and machinists in the Sacramento region; these industries produce a wide variety of products. Ninety percent of the industries analyzed employ fewer than 10 workers as either machinists or CNC operators, suggesting that a wide array of industries and companies, large and small, employ only a handful of these employees. Employment is not concentrated, except in a few industries, such as machine shops. Most of these workers are employed by small businesses with fewer than 20 employees. Variation in Practices and Requirements: Employers provided varied responses to questions about production practices, skills and job requirements, including the number of hours of training needed for proficiency, software used, and design and drawing practices. While the study focused primarily on demand, additional qualitative research could provide insights into common skill needs that would translate into curriculum and training. Hiring Characteristics: Most employers surveyed said they experienced at least some difficulty in recruiting and hiring qualified workers for the two occupations. Employees mostly do not relocate for these jobs; candidates are local. Jobs are mostly full time. Informal and On-the-Job Training: Employers do not look for industry-recognized credentials when considering candidate machinists and CNC operators. Many employers value on-the-job or apprentice training; others either have no preference for training or do not require formal training. About one-third of employers would consider college certificates and degrees valuable preparation, if related programs existed. About half expressed interest in partnering with colleges for work-based learning, internships or on-the-job training. Half are interested in apprenticeships. DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION 3

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY New Community College Investment: Two colleges in and near the greater Sacramento region have longstanding and new programs that train machinists and CNC operators Yuba College and San Joaquin Delta College. At least six additional colleges in the North/Far North region, including Diablo Valley College are planning or developing CNC and machinist programs. (See Appendix I.) Employers are optimistic about hiring additional machinists and CNC operators in the near and medium terms, echoing other recent research and employer engagement findings from the COE and Valley Vision. The labor pool in related occupations is probably much larger than the secondary data reveal in this study. Due to a high degree of variation in training and skills requirements in survey responses, the study could not determine the value of formal training programs and credentials for employers. There was also a high degree of variation in operations and products produced by survey respondents. These factors combined with the number of new programs coming online in the greater Sacramento region and historical industry and occupational job losses point to taking a conservative approach to community college program development. A conservative approach could mean establishing pilot programs or short-term programs for targeted audiences to gauge student outcomes and gain ongoing feedback from employers. 4 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION

5 INTRODUCTION The Northern California Center of Excellence (COE) responded to requests from college partners in the Los Rios Community College District that expressed interest in exploring employer demand related to machinists and CNC operators. The interest corresponds to the Sacramento region s Next Economy cluster initiative, implemented by Valley Vision. 1 Research conducted by Valley Vision 2 and the Northern California Center of Excellence 3 identified machinists and CNC operators as key, indemand occupations for the advanced manufacturing cluster in the Sacramento region. Most recently, an industry panel for the regional action plan for the advanced manufacturing cluster, held in early 2016, specified needs for machining and CNC training programs. 4 Previous reports by the Centers of Excellence in other regions of the state have identified machining and CNC skills as important drivers in advanced manufacturing. 5 To assess demand and training needs for machinists and CNC operators in the Sacramento region, 6 in Fall 2016, the Center of Excellence surveyed 89 firms that employ machinists and CNC operators. The research includes analysis of secondary data from EMSI, which compiles public sources of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and other private sources. The research focused on the following: Analyzing employment trends in the industries where the occupations are typically employed; Projecting short-term and medium-term employment demand, including job creation and replacements from retirements; Analyzing design skills and software used, and wage trends; Identifying key issues impacting supply and demand, including employer education and training preferences, credentialing, experience requirements and hiring challenges; Exploring partnership opportunities and interest in apprenticeships; and Identifying and categorizing firms where machinists and CNC operators work, and noting the characteristics of the two occupations employment among these firms. The employer survey conducted for this study collected primary information on the demand for machinists and CNC operators. The report is intended for community colleges to use in the following capacities: Estimating the size of employment demand by occupation and industry; Documenting occupational characteristics and skill needs of employers; Evaluating and validating how existing programs are preparing qualified candidates for the workplace; and Informing new program development, curriculum, grant applications, program review and regional planning. 1 Next Economy focuses on six clusters: Advanced Manufacturing, Clean Energy Technology, Education and Knowledge Creation, Food and Agriculture, Information and Communications, Technology, and Life Sciences and Health Services. To read more about the initiative, actions plans, and proceedings, visit 2 Schmidt, Evan and Kristine Mazzei, Valley Vision. Next Economy: Workforce Development Recommendations for the Advanced Manufacturing Industry Cluster (April 15, 2014). Accessed December 1, Available at 3 Centers of Excellence, Los Rios Community College District, et. al. Advanced Manufacturing Cluster: Workforce Needs Assessment: Sacramento Capital Region. (October, 2015), pp Accessed December 1, Available at 4 Valley Vision, Northern California Center of Excellence, Sacramento Capital Region Next Economy Cluster Workforce Action Plan: Advanced Manufacturing Cluster Forum Proceedings (Sacramento: Sierra College, January 13, 2016). Accessed November 15, Available at adv_man_forum_proceedings.pdf 5 See, for example: Centers of Excellence. Employer Survey Results: Advanced Manufacturing: Los Angeles County, Orange County, Central Valley, (December, 2013). Accessed December 1, Available at 6 The report includes the following six counties in its definition of the Sacramento region: El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba. DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION 5

6 OCCUPATIONAL OVERVIEW The two occupations chosen for this study represent middle-skill production occupations in traditional and advanced manufacturing industries. The general occupational categories used in the survey correspond most closely to two Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes, referenced below. (Appendix A and Appendix B provide basic information on regional employment, wages and educational attainment for the two occupations.) Machinists Machinists use similar skills and perform related tasks to those of CNC operators, but their work can be more varied in terms of the types of machines used and the finished products they produce. In some cases, they work with manual machines as well as CNC and other automated production machines. In other cases, they produce customized, precision parts. They often work from computer-aided design (CAD) and computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) designs, and can create such designs. They use the designs to program production machines. They set up, operate and monitor the machines, and perform quality control. They perform machine repair in a similar fashion to CNC operators. They also may use lathes, milling machines, grinders and cutting tools like lasers, water jets and electrified wires. In addition to mass production work, they may produce one-off, precision parts and tools for a variety of industries. 7 The survey asked employers about machinists. The BLS SOC code is similar Machinists (SOC ). The COE uses that category for occupational and industry analysis. 8 7 Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Outlook Handbook, Edition, Metal and Plastic Machine Workers. Accessed December 12, Available at 8 The BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook for Machinists (and Tool and Die Makers) suggests that the occupational category of Tool and Die Makers is similar (Tool and Die Maker SOC ), among others. 6 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION

7 OCCUPATIONAL OVERVIEW CNC Operators CNC operators program, set up and operate machines and robots to produce metal and plastic pieces for a variety of industries and applications. In some cases, operators perform design functions, as revealed in the survey findings. Setup can include programming production machines or robots. CNC operators load materials into the production machines and monitor the machines to ensure proper functioning of the machines and production processes. They perform finish work and quality control on the parts and tools they make. They may perform basic repairs on production machines. In some settings, these tasks may be segmented among workers programming, designing, setting, operating, performing finish work and quality control. In many cases, the tasks are combined. Related occupations can be defined by the specific or general function, or by the type of machine involved. 9 Operator, tender, setter and variations on CNC- are common related job titles. 10 The survey asked employer respondents about CNC operators. The COE analyzed BLS industry and occupational data and other secondary source data based on the SOC code for Computer Numerically-Controlled Machine Tool Programmers, Metal and Plastic (SOC ). 11 Related Occupations Preliminary research suggests there are related BLS SOC codes that correlate to the two survey occupational categories used, including the two used for the industry analysis in this study. Text analysis of O*NET summary reports from secondary data indicate that several occupations have correlated job tasks and work activities, and use related tools and technology. Many of the occupations have education levels appropriate for the community college audience and significant employment in the Sacramento region. These occupations serve similar manufacturing industries to that of CNC machine tool operators and machinists, but a few of the occupations also serve other industries in larger numbers. Further research in the secondary data using additional, validated occupational codes could offer a more complete picture of the size of the related, available labor pool in the Sacramento region. Expanding occupational analysis could show how related workers are serving manufacturing and other industries, and could suggest related, in-demand skills and program pathways. However, preliminary research of additional occupations and industries where they are employed shows that the two occupations used in this study provide a similar occupational and industry picture. Adding more occupations to the analysis resulted in higher employment totals, but did not change the picture of historical occupational job losses or job losses in the associated manufacturing industries between 2005 and COE did not include those occupations because they fell outside the scope of the research for this report. 9 Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Outlook Handbook, Edition, Metal and Plastic Machine Workers. Accessed December 12, Available at 10 O*NET OnLine Summary Report for Computer-Numerical Control Machine Programmers, Metal and Plastic. Accessed December 16. Available at 11 The employer survey includes the language CNC operator. The SOC category that most closely correspond is , Computer-Numerically Controlled Machine Tool Programmers. DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION 7

8 EMPLOYER CHARACTERISTICS Employers were asked to provide information about their firm s location, the type and size of their organization and characteristics of machinist and CNC operator employment (Exhibit 1). Eighty-nine establishments in the Sacramento region participated in the survey. Respondents were mostly from Sacramento County, followed by Placer County. Yolo County and El Dorado County each had the same number of survey respondents. Sutter County and Yuba County had the fewest responses. Exhibit 1: Employer Respondents by County n = 89 Sacramento 39%, 35 Placer 21%, 19 Yolo 16%, 14 El Dorado 16%, 14 Sutter 6%, 5 Yuba 2%, 2 When asked to select a category of manufacturing firm type, half of the firms surveyed fell into the Other category (Exhibit 2). A quarter said they were machine shops, and 10% identified as Precision Turned Product Manufacturing firms. Smaller numbers of responses came from farm machinery and equipment manufacturing; machine tool manufacturing; and cutting tool and machine tool accessory manufacturing. Exhibit 2: Firm Type (Supplied Choices) n = 89 Other 49%, 44 Machine Shops 28%, 25 Precision Turned Product Manufacturing 11%, 10 Farm Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing 6%, 5 Machine Tool Manufacturing 3%, 3 Cutting Tool & Machine Tool Accessory Manufacturing 2%, 2 8 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION

9 EMPLOYER CHARACTERISTICS Exhibit 3 lists employer responses for the Other category. Respondents firms are involved in diverse production activities including furniture manufacturing, construction-related manufacturing, automotive- and transportation-related manufacturing, inection molding and design, retail signs and storefront manufacturing, food manufacturing, and others. Employment of these occupations is only partly concentrated. In the secondary source data, staffing patterns show that an overwhelming majority of industries employing machinists (SOC ) and CNC machine programmers (SOC ) employ only a few of them. Workers in these two occupational categories are distributed across a wide swath of primarily manufacturing industries that produce a diversity of goods for many applications. Of the 126 industries analyzed, 116 industries each employs fewer than 10 machinists and CNC operators. 12 (See Appendix C for more detail.) This does not necessarily mean that the work machinists and CNC operators perform is significantly different among industries. Further research and employer engagement could suggest how work is similar or varies across industries and between companies. Exhibit 3: Firm Type, Other Category (Respondent-Supplied Answer, n = 44) Aluminum storefront manufacturing Light fixture manufacturing (2) Architectural millwork Machinery manufacturing Automotive manufacturing OEM of machined products Backflow valve manufacturing Oil pump manufacturing Cabinet manufacturing (3) Parts manufacturer Construction-related Pipe and tubing component manufacturing (2) Construction equipment manufacturing Plastic fabrication Consumer product manufacturing Print and fulfillment company Contract machine job shop Production of pavers Custom cabinetry manufacturing Promotional products producer Custom fabrication Rubber products manufacturing Food manufacturing Sign manufacturing Furniture manufacturing Specialized engine tuning services Glass fabricator Store fixture manufacturing Hand-fabricated art Structural steel fabrication High-precision CNC Manufacturing Surgical saw blade Injection molding and design Survey equipment for remediation data Job shop Trade bindery Label manufacturing Trailer manufacturing Underground utility boxes and cover manufacturing Taken together, survey respondents firms employ more than 3,000 workers (all employees). The majority of these employers are small businesses. Exhibit 4 displays the percent of firms by the size of the organization provided by survey respondents. Eighty percent of firms surveyed employ fewer than 50 workers, almost half of firms employ fewer than 10 workers. Nearly 20% employ 50 or more workers, and 10% employ 100 or more. The average firm size of respondents was 55, and the median, 30. (Appendix F provides more detail on firm size in the secondary data.) QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, and Self-Employed. COE obtained the result by a simple count of the number of industries employing the ranges of the two occupations at the 6-digit NAICS level from inverse staffing patterns QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, and Self-Employed. These numbers are estimates of firm sizes based on total employment divided by the number of firms in the industry. DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION 9

10 EMPLOYER CHARACTERISTICS Exhibit 4: Employer Firm Size (Survey) n = 89 3%, 3 46%, 41 15%, 13 19%, 17 10%, > 200 MACHINIST & CNC OPERATOR EMPLOYMENT 7%, 6 The survey asked employers about the number of full-time, part-time and contract or temporary machinists and CNC operators employed by their organization. Respondents employ a total of 431 machinists and 326 CNC operators, including full-time and part-time workers (Exhibit 5). The numbers appear high when compared to totals from secondary employment data for the region. The secondary data show 817 machinists and 38 CNC machine tool programmers for all employers in the six-county region. (See Appendix A.) 14 This suggests that the secondary sources count the employment represented in this survey in other, additional occupational categories; it also suggests that the occupational categories used for the survey were sufficiently broad to capture a range of types of worker. The labor pool for workers in these categories in the Sacramento region is likely much larger than the totals included in Appendix A. 15 The machinist and CNC operator workforce is mostly a full-time workforce. For both occupations, more than 80% of respondents said they employ full-time machinists and CNC operators. The majority of companies do not employ part-time, temporary or contract workers. More than a quarter of firms employ part-time machinists, but fewer than 20% employ part-time CNC operators. Only a handful of companies in the survey employs temporary and contract workers and those that do employ slightly higher numbers of them than part-time workers. Exhibit 5: Number of Machinists and CNC Operators Employed by Respondent Firms (Full-Time, Part-Time, Temporary & Contract) n=74 (Machinists), 76 (CNC) Full-Time Part-Time Temp. and Contract Total Full/Part-Time CNC Operators Machinists The majority of firms participating in the survey, about 70%, reported employing both machinists and CNC operators (Exhibit 6). A smaller number of respondents employ either machinists only or CNC operators only. In single-occupationspecific questions shown in the following exhibits, the response count is noted as n = 74 (Machinists) or n = 76 (CNC Operators) reflecting the employers who have employees in either category or both categories. Respondents were instructed to direct their answers to questions based on each category of worker they employ. 14 In the Sacramento region, several occupations have employment totals comparable to the two occupations combined: Tax Preparers (SOC ); Architectural and Civil Drafters ( ); Construction and Building Inspectors ( ); Computer, Automated Teller, and Office Machine Repairers ( ); and Telecommunications Line Installers and Repairers ( ). 15 Appendix A totals are low compared to the occupations referenced in the survey. Further research that could clarify relevant BLS occupation categories could provide a clearer picture of a total regional employment counts, relevant to the two occupation categories from the survey. 10 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION

11 MACHINIST & CNC OPERATOR EMPLOYMENT Exhibit 6: Number of Firms Employing Machinists or CNC Operators n = 89 69%, 61 17%, 15 15%, 13 Both CNC Operators Only Machinists Only Exhibit 7 shows the distribution of employment for each occupation (431 machinists and 326 CNC operators) by the number of workers in respondent firms. 16 For both machinists and CNC operators, about three-quarters of firms employ between one and nine of each class of worker. Firm size partly explains this. Most machinists and CNC operators work in small businesses. The secondary data shows the highest concentration (40%) of these workers occurs in firms with employees. (See Appendix D.) A comparison of the number of machinists and CNC operators to respondents firm size suggests that in many cases, a small number of these workers are serving larger companies. The table in Appendix E shows that for many industries, machinists and CNC operators comprise a small segment of the total workforce for the manufacturing industries that employ them. 16 A few responses were eliminated due to conflicting answers. Totals reflect included data. DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION 11

12 MACHINIST & CNC OPERATOR EMPLOYMENT Still, there is a significant amount of employment for these two occupations in larger firms. Secondary data analysis shows that more than a quarter of machinists and CNC operators work in firms with 50 or more employees, and 10% work in firms with more than 200 employees (Appendix D). Exhibit 7: Number of Machinists and CNC Operators Employed by Respondent Firms (Full-Time, Part-Time, Temporary and Contract) n = 71 (Machinists), 70 (CNC) 3%, 2 CNC Operators 77%, 54 9%, 6 9%, 6 1%, 1 Machinists 68%, 48 14%, 10 13%, 9 4%, 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 4 employees 5 9 employees employees employees employees The employers in the survey mostly source their workforce locally (Exhibit 8). Respondents estimated that less than a tenth of the full-time workers in each category relocated for their positions. Less than 20% of CNC operator employers reported having between one and three relocations. That figure rose to 20% for machinist employers, with one employer reporting six relocations. Exhibit 8: Number of Permanent Machinists and CNC Operators Who Relocated for the Job (Full-Time, Part-Time, Temporary and Contract) Full-Time workers Relocations % Who Relocated CNC Operators % Machinists % n=74 (Machinists), 76 (CNC) 12 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION

13 WAGES Employer responses for wages varied substantially for entry-level machinists and CNC operators, but the survey reveals that entry-level machinists generally earn more than CNC operators (Exhibit 9). Both occupations make $10 $25 per hour for entry-level positions. Wages for machinists tend to be concentrated between $13 and $25 per hour. By comparison, wages for CNC operators tend to be concentrated between $10 and $15 per hour. A majority of entry-level CNC operators make $15 per hour or less. The weighted average for entry-level CNC operators is $14.38 per hour and $15.49 per hour for machinists. 17 (See Appendix A for a comparison to secondary-source wage data for the two occupations.) Wages did not vary substantially across counties, except in Yuba County where there were fewer respondents. A recent study of the seven-county Sacramento region found that for community-college-relevant occupations, the weighted average wage across all occupations was $23.52 per hour. Within the seven-county region, the living wage for one adult is $11.07 per hour, and for one adult and one child, $24.42 per hour. 18 Exhibit 9: Hourly Wages for Entry-Level Machinists and CNC Operators n = 74 (Machinists), 76 (CNC) $20 $25 16%, 12 26%, 19 $16 $19 21%, 16 26%, 19 $13 $15 32%, 24 31%, 23 $10 $12 18%, 13 32%, 24 Entry-level CNC Operators Entry-level Machinists 17 Weighted average calculation: sum of the total number of CNC operators or machinists employed at firms providing responses for common wage levels (e.g. $10 per hour, $14 per hour), multiplied by the given common wage level; the weighted average is the total (sum) of all hourly wages divided by the total number of part-time and full-time workers in each occupation category. 18 Northern California Center of Excellence. Regional Labor Market Assessment: Greater Sacramento (August, 2016). Accessed December 1, Available at Weighted average calculations: median wages Living wage information comes from MIT Living Wage Calculator. livingwage.mit.edu DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION 13

14 WAGES Although the average wages of experienced workers are similar, the survey suggests that machinists have a higher earning potential (Exhibit 10). A majority of workers both machinists and CNC operators make $20 $25 per hour. Almost a third of machinists make more than $26 per hour; some make more than $30 per hour. The ceiling for CNC operators, however, appears to be $25 hourly; less than 20% of CNC operators rise above that pay rate, and 40% are below $20 per hour. Only 20% of experienced machinists are paid less than $20 per hour. The weighted average for experienced CNC operators is $20.63 per hour and $23.70 per hour for experienced machinists. (See Appendix A for a comparison to the secondary-source wage data.) Wages did not vary substantially among counties. Exhibit 10: Hourly Wages for Experienced Machinists and CNC Operators $36 $40 1%, 1 1%, 1 n = 74 (Machinists), 76 (CNC) $30 $35 9%, 7 15%, 11 $26 $29 8%, 6 15%, 11 $20 $25 42%, 32 47%, 35 $16 $19 14%, 10 22%, 17 $13 $15 5%, 4 16%, 12 $10 $12 1%, 1 3%, 2 Experienced CNC Operators Experienced Machinists 14 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION

15 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS The survey asked employers to provide short-term 12-month employment projections for their firms, and 12-month and three-year projections specifically for the occupations of machinists and CNC operators. The survey asked about the number of people who had relocated for jobs, and the number of people expected to retire in the next 12 months. Respondents were split evenly when asked if they would add employees or remain at the same level of employment over the next 12 months (for all employees at their firms). Only one respondent out of 82 expected a decrease in employment. That firm anticipated a reduction of 45 employees. Nearly 30% anticipated adding five to 10 more employees. Only two respondents projected larger increases, of 20 and 50 employees, respectively. Exhibit 11: Employers 12-Month Hiring Projections All Employment in the Firm, n = 40 Number of Additions Responses Percent of Responses 1 4 more 27 68% 5 10 more 11 28% 20 more 1 3% 50 more 1 3% Exhibit 12 illustrates employer responses for 12-month and three-year projections specific to machinists and CNC operators. Employers were more conservative with projecting near-term (12-month) additions for the two occupations. Only a quarter thought they would add machinists; more than 30% anticipated adding CNC operators. The majority for both occupations, 50 75%, said they would remain at the same level of employment. A small number said they would reduce employment. Three-year projections were more optimistic for the two occupations. About half of those surveyed anticipated adding workers from each of the two occupations. Exhibit 12: Employers 12-Month and 3-Year Hiring Projections (Machinists and CNC Operators) n = 74 (Machinists), 76 (CNC) CNC Operators, 12-Month Projection 63%, 48 34%, 26 3%, 2 Machinists, 12-Month Projection 72%, 53 26%, 19 3%, 2 CNC Operators, 3-Year Projection 43%, 33 53%, 40 4%, 3 Machinists, 3-Year Projection 49%, 36 47%, 35 4%, 3 Same number More Less DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION 15

16 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS Employers who projected employment increases were asked how many machinists and CNC operators they expected to add. Overall, employers had more optimistic projections for CNC operators than for machinists for both 12-month and three-year periods. The greater number of CNC operator additions for 12 months and three years translated into higher growth rates compared to machinists (Exhibit 13). Only two employers said they planned on reductions in the next 12 months 10 fewer machinists and four fewer CNC operators. Three companies projected 13 fewer machinists and four fewer CNC operators over the next three years. 19 Exhibit 13: Employers 12-Month and 3-Year Employment Projections (Machinists and CNC Operators) Total Employment Month Total Projected Additions 12-Month Total Projected Employment 12-Month Growth Rate 3-Year Total Projected Additions n=74 (Machinists), 76 (CNC) 3-Year Total Projected Employment CNC Operators % % Machinists % % 3-Year Growth Rate Exhibit 14 shows how many machinists and CNC operators employers expect to add in the next 12-month and three-year periods. Most gains come from employers adding small numbers of employees, but as shown in Exhibit 14, the additions translate to high growth rates. In the next 12 months, most employers expect to hire only one to three workers; however, the total number of workers added for all firms equates to a significantly higher growth rate. Only one employer projected adding four to seven new employees. Three-year projections were somewhat more optimistic. About three-quarters of respondents projected adding one to three more employees. Five respondents projected adding 10 to 20 machinists and CNC operators. Exhibit 14: Number of Additions for 12-Month and Three-Year Projected Increases (CNC Operators and Machinists) CNC Operator, 12- Month Projected Additions (n = 26) 62%, 16 35%, 9 4%, 1 Machinists, 12- Month Projected Additions (n = 19) 42%, 8 58%, 11 CNC Operator, 3-Year Projected Addition (n = 40) 30%, 12 43%, 17 18%, 7 10%, 4 Machinists, 3-Year Projected Additions (n = 35) 26%, 9 46%, 16 26%, 9 3%, 1 1 More 2 3 More 4 7 More More 19 The projections use employer estimates of the total numbers of workers in each occupational category including full-time and part-time workers. The total number of additions subtracts the projected reductions. 16 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION

17 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS The survey did not indicate that retirements represent a significant source for hiring new replacements. A large majority of firms, more than three-quarters for both occupations, projected no retirements in the next three years. Only one company anticipated 10 retirements of machinists. In total, companies projected retirements of18 machinists and 12 CNC operators over the next three years. RECRUITMENT & HIRING CHALLENGES Employers report difficulty in recruiting and hiring qualified candidates (Exhibit 15). More than 90% of employers reported having moderate to extreme difficulty recruiting and hiring CNC operators. Of those, 40% reported extreme difficulty. For machinists, 82% reported moderate to extreme difficulty. Of those, 36% reported extreme difficulty. Exhibit 15: Difficulty Recruiting and Hiring Qualified Candidates n = 74 (Machinists), 76 (CNC) 9%, 7 CNC Operators 42%, 31 49%, 36 Machinists 36%, 27 46%, 35 18%, 14 Extreme difficulty Moderate difficulty No difficulty DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION 17

18 EXPERIENCE, CREDENTIALING & EDUCATION The survey asked employers about the number of hours required for entry-level workers to become proficient at their jobs. It also asked about credentials. Responses about the number of hours needed for proficiency varied widely for both occupations (Exhibit 16). Variations in operations, complexity and diversity of work tasks, and machinery, tools and software used could explain the differences. The responses indicate that requirements are not standard. About 25% of employers said it takes 40 hours or fewer for workers in both occupations to become proficient. Four employers said it takes more than 5,000 hours for machinist proficiency (more than two years of full-time work). For CNC operators, employer responses averaged (weighted average) just more than 700 hours; the median was 240 hours. Roughly half of respondents cited between 50 hours and 800 hours for CNC operators. Generally, employers said machinists require more hours to acquire proficiency compared to CNC operators. The weighted average for machinists was nearly 1,000 hours with a median of 490 hours, approximately double the amount of time for CNC operators. The higher hourly requirements for machinists are shown in Exhibit 16 with responses concentrated between 1,000 and 8,000 hours. Exhibit 16: Number of Hours Required for Worker Proficiency 8%, 6 4%, 3 n = 73 (Machinists), 76 (CNC) CNC Operators 16%, 12 33%, 25 22%, 17 17%, 13 8%, 6 5%, 4 Machinists 16%, 12 27%, 20 19%, 14 23%, 17 No hours < 10 hours hours hours hours 1,000 2,500 hours 5,000 8,000 hours 20 Weighted average calculation: sum of the total number of CNC operators or machinists employed at firms providing responses for common hourly requirements (e.g. 10 hours, 40 hours, 800 hours), multiplied by the given common hourly requirement; the weighted average is the total (sum) of all hourly requirements divided by the total number of part-time and full-time workers in each occupation category. 18 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION

19 EXPERIENCE, CREDENTIALING & EDUCATION Employers were asked to consider the type of educational training program that would best prepare candidates (Exhibit 17). They indicated a slight preference for practical, hands-on training in the form of apprenticeships and on-the-job training. A quarter of CNC operator employers and one-third of machinist employers favored this type of program. About one-third of CNC operator employers said a one-year or two-year college program would well-prepare job candidates for their company. This figure was slightly lower among machinists employers, with less than one-third preferring a community college program. Machinist employers preferred a one-year program over a two-year program. Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicate more than 40% of CNC operators, and nearly 40% of machinists, have completed some college or an associate degree. Secondary data also show the typical entry-level education is a high school diploma or equivalent with long-term on-the-job-training for both occupations. (See Appendix A for details on entry-level education.) A quarter of employers had no preference for educational programs that would prepare candidates, and less than 20% said no formal training was needed for the two occupations. Exhibit 17: Type of Educational Training Program that Would Best Prepare Candidates n = 74 (Machinists), 76 (CNC) No formal training needed 16%, 12 12%, 9 ApprenticeTraining (1 4 yrs., min. 2,000 hrs. OJT) 25%, 19 34%, 25 Short-term certificate (1-year to complete) 21%, 16 19%, 14 Associate degree (2 years to complete) 12%, 9 8%, 6 No preference (any of these options works) 26%, 20 27%, 20 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION 19

20 EXPERIENCE, CREDENTIALING & EDUCATION The survey indicates that employers overwhelmingly do not seek out industry credentials when considering candidates (Exhibit 18). For both occupations, the survey asked if employers look for Manufacturing Skills Standards Council (MSSC) Certified Production Technicians. Only one respondent cited it for CNC operators, while two respondents mentioned it for machinists. Employers of CNC operators were asked about the National Institute for Metal Working Skills (NIMS) Machining Certificate. Only one employer thought it was valuable. A few cited other for desired credentials, but in an open-ended, follow-up question, experience was cited several times as the main requirement. One respondent cited welding credentials. Employers did not mention any other credential. Exhibit 18: Industry Credential Requirements for Candidates n = 74 (Machinists), 76 (CNC) 8%, 6 CNC Operator credentials 92%, 70 5%, 4 Machinist credentials 95%, 70 No credential required Credential desireable 20 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION

21 PRODUCTION MACHINES USED & DESIGN/ DRAWING METHODS The survey asked employers about the production machines that machinists use. It also asked about the amount of design and drawing each of the two occupations perform. For those occupations that perform drawing and design, the survey asked employers to comment on the method type of software and whether drawing is done by hand. A majority of machinists perform both manual machining and use CNC machines in the production process (Exhibit 19). More than 25% use manual machines only, and more than 10% use CNC machines only. Exhibit 19: Production Machines Used By Machinists n = 74 59%, 44 27%, 10 14%, 20 Both manual and CNC Manual milling machines only CNC machines only The survey indicates that design and drawing is not the primary work of machinists and CNC operators employed by the companies surveyed (Exhibit 20). Respondents said less than 10% of CNC operators devote a lot of time to designing and drawing parts or products. The number was slightly higher for machinists, slightly more than 10%. More than 60% of CNC operators and less than 60% of machinists spend no time or little time designing or drawing. Exhibit 20: Amount of Time Machinists and CNC Operators Spend Designing and Drawing n = 74 (Machinists), 76 (CNC) 8%, 6 CNC Operators 42%, 32 22%, 17 28%, 21 14%, 10 Machinists 30%, 22 27%, 20 30%, 22 None Little Some A lot DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION 21

22 PRODUCTION MACHINES USED & DESIGN/ DRAWING METHODS The survey asked employers with workers who draw and design about their methods the type of software used or if they draw or design by hand (Exhibit 21). AutoCAD, SOLIDWORKS and hand drawing were the most cited specific responses to the provided choices, with a majority citing AutoCAD. More than half of the CNC operator employers use AutoCAD, and nearly half of machinist firms use it. A quarter of CNC operator employers use SOLIDWORKS. The number is smaller for machinist firms less than 20%. Many respondents use both AutoCAD and SOLIDWORKS. Of firms employing CNC operators, 20% cited Other for the type of software used, while 5% of firms employing machinists cited Other. Notably, nearly a third of the machinist employers said they design and draw by hand, but many of these responses indicate they also use design software. Exhibit 21: Software Used by Machinists and CNC Operators 21 Firms n = 52 (Machinists), 44 (CNC) AutoCAD (Autodesk) 44%, 24 57%, 25 SOLIDWORKS Other 25%, 11 18%, 10 20%, 9 15%, 8 By Hand/ No Software 14%, 6 29%, 16 ProENGINEER (Creo) BobCAD Mastercam SketchUp 7%, 3 7%, 4 7%, 3 4%, 2 5%, 2 9%, 5 5%, 2 5%, 3 CNC Operators Design Software Used Machinists Design Software Used 21 The percentages in the chart refer to the percent of firms responding to the question. The percentages total more than 100% because some firms use more than one method and provided more than one response. 22 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION

23 PRODUCTION MACHINES USED & DESIGN/ DRAWING METHODS The variety of software used by firms participating in the survey is noteworthy (Exhibit 22). Employers cited 17 different types of software in addition to AutoCAD and SOLIDWORKS. Some of these are variations of computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) and computer-aided design (CAD). A couple are industry specific Cabinet Vision and Planit Solutions. Employers cited other software created by AutoDesk, the software company offering AutoCAD including FeatureCAM and Fusion 360. Exhibit 22: Software Used by Machinists and CNC Operators ( Other Responses) n=8 (Machinists), 9 (CNC) Machinists CNC Operators FeatureCAM (AutoDesk) Cabinet Vision (see Vero and Planit Solutions) Fusion 360 (AutoDesk) CorelDRAW GibbsCAM Delcam (aquired by AutoDesk 2014) Adobe Illustrator Planit Solutions (see Cabinet Vision and Vero) TurboCAD SmartCAM Surfcam SolutionWare SolutionWare DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION 23

24 PARTNERSHIP OPPORTUNITIES FOR TRAINING & APPRENCTICESHIPS Several survey questions asked employers about partnership opportunities for program development, work-based learning and on-the-job-training, and interest in apprenticeships. Respondents preferred learning more about apprenticeships and partnering for work-based learning, on-the-job training and internships, echoing the educational preferences expressed earlier in the survey. (See Exhibit 23 below and Exhibit 17 above). More than 33% expressed interest in serving on industry advisory committees for community colleges. Less than a third said they would provide curriculum assistance. Exhibit 23: Employer Interest in Developing Programs n = 89 Learning more about apprenticeships 53%, 47, Yes 47%, 42, No Providing work experience, internships, OJT 52%, 46, Yes 48%, 43, No Providing advisory committee service 36%, 32, Yes 64%, 57, No Providing technical assistance for curriculum 29%, 26, Yes 71%, 63, No CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONS Advanced manufacturing is one of 10 priority sectors adopted by the California Community Colleges Chancellor s Office Economic and Workforce Development program (Doing What Matters for Jobs and the Economy initiative). Through the initiative, a deputy sector navigator for advanced manufacturing serves the Sacramento region. In addition, the Next Economy initiative and Valley Vision have selected the advanced manufacturing sector as one of six core business clusters in the region around which stakeholders from government, education and industry have pledged to collaborate. Machinists and CNC operators represent primary production workers in the manufacturing and advanced manufacturing industries. The COE has featured these two occupations in several manufacturing-related reports in recent years. To assess demand and training needs for machinists and CNC operators in the Sacramento region, the COE surveyed 89 firms employing workers in these positions. Most participants represented firms in Sacramento County, but employers from the other five counties in the region also participated. 24 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION

25 CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONS Manufacturing firms in the region conduct a diverse array of activities. Nearly 30% identified as machine shops, and another 11% stated they were involved in Precision Turned Product Manufacturing. Nearly 50% were not easily categorized. By and large, these firms are small businesses, with 80% employing 50 or fewer employees. (See Appendix D and Appendix F.) While many firms report employing machinists and CNC operators, these occupations appear to be employed in small numbers. An analysis of 126 manufacturing-related industries in the region revealed that 90% of the industries employ fewer than 10 machinists and CNC operators (Appendix C). Although most employers cited significant difficulties recruiting and hiring qualified candidates, most added that their permanent employees had not relocated for their job. Employers find their workforce locally and typically offer full-time jobs for machinists and CNC operators. Part-time, temporary and contract jobs are not common. Ranging from $20/hour to $25/hour, wages for experienced machinists and CNC operators are on par with the region s living wage. CNC operators tend to make less than machinists. Employers are optimistic about hiring additional machinists and CNC operators in the next few years, with employers projecting robust job growth, reaffirming findings from other recent studies conducted by the COE and Valley Vision. The total number of workers employed by the 89 survey participants 431 machinists and 326 CNC operators suggests the employment totals from the secondary research are low and that the actual available labor pool in the Sacramento region may be significantly larger. Research using additional occupational codes could provide a more comprehensive picture of total employment and could shed light on additional occupations and in-demand skills suitable for community college programs. That research fell outside the scope of this study. The optimistic projections provided by employers should be considered with caution. Secondary data suggests the total number of machinists and CNC machine tool programmers in the Sacramento region is small slightly more than 800 machinists and slightly fewer than 40 CNC machine tool programmers (Appendix A). These workers are scattered across 126 industries and more than 1,000 employers (Appendix C and Appendix F). Regionally, employment totals for the two occupations are similar to the number of tax preparers (SOC ), architectural or civil drafters ( ) or construction and building inspectors ( ). Moreover, for occupations related to machinists and CNC operators, secondary source data analysis shows job losses 7% overall from 2005 to 2015 (Appendix B). Similarly, analysis of the 126 manufacturing industries in the region shows a 7% decline in employment from 2005 to 2015, a loss of more than 3,000 jobs. Half of the 126 industries grew during that time period, and half shed jobs. (See Appendix G and Appendix H.) There is a high degree of variation in training and skill needs among employers, who conduct a diverse array of production activities in the region. Given recent manufacturing industry and occupational job losses and the number of existing and planned community college programs that train machinists and CNC operators in the region, this study s findings suggest a conservative approach should be taken in future program development. (Appendix I lists existing and planned programs.) DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION 25

26 CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONS Community colleges in the region may want to take the following actions as part of a conservative approach: Conduct a near-term review of existing and new programs for wage and placement outcomes. Establish specific and focused short-term pilot programs that are part of related, established programs. Create or expand work-based learning projects, on-the-job training programs or apprenticeships as part of existing related programs. Create contract education courses or grant-funded programs for targeted audiences or workers in transition. Additional Key Findings & Recommendations: Regionally, the findings suggest that there is not a strong preference for formal or institutional training. When asked about educational preferences, about 30% of survey respondents prefer community college training for worker preparation. About a third of employers prefer apprenticeships. Approximately 40% suggested that no formal training is needed for machinists or CNC operators, or had no preference. Data analysis shows 40% of machinists and CNC operators have completed some college courses or received associate degrees. A high school diploma or equivalent is the standard entry-level education level for both occupations, and both require long-term, on-the-job training. Program development representatives should engage employers to develop opportunities that involve placing students in shop experiences and training candidates or entry-level workers to use tools and equipment related to the two occupations, skills that will provide a seamless transition into the workplace. Employment projections show encouraging signs, especially because the survey sample represents a small percentage of the regional manufacturing firms that employ the two occupations. The 89 firms surveyed project 65 new positions for machinists and CNC operators in the next 12 months, and about 230 new positions over the next three years. Based on the survey responses, the three-year projected growth rates are strong for both occupations: 22% for machinists and 44% for CNC operators. The survey projections should be weighed against secondary data that reveals job losses cited above. Many of the survey questions received highly varied responses regarding worker pay rates, hour requirements for proficiency, software used, design methods, and the types of businesses and products produced. The varied responses to the questions about sources for candidate preparation and credentialing points to an industry where skills are largely learned on the job, informally. This is a conclusion substantiated in the secondary data (Appendix A). Additional employer engagement could shed light on preferred training approaches, such those that are flexible, hybrid, interdisciplinary or on-the-job. Further engagement could identify in-demand skills for entry-level workers that might be suitable for a traditional certificate or degree program. With regard to partnership opportunities, though employers in this study did not indicate a preference for formal training or industry credentialing, about 30% of respondents indicated that college programs are a preferred training preparation. More than half of respondents said they are interested in learning more about and partnering on work-based learning, on-the-job-training and internships. Similarly, 53% would like to learn more about internships. College-industry collaboration is recommended, but given the diversity of small businesses that comprise the bulk of the employers, challenges exist for getting streamlined feedback for long-term program development. 26 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION

27 APPENDIX A: EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES FOR MACHINISTS & CNC MACHINE TOOL PROGRAMMERS Employment totals for both Machinists and CNC Machine Tool Programmers are markedly out of proportion with the totals from survey respondents. Wages cited for experienced workers in the survey correspond to the median hourly wages in the table below, though machinists and CNC operators are reversed in terms of the occupation with higher earnings. Experienced Hourly Wage below refers to a 90th percentile, which is roughly on par with survey results. Typical entrylevel education and on the job training below appear to correspond to survey responses regarding preferences for handson, on-the-job training and experience. EXHIBIT A: 2015 Jobs, Wages, Typical Education, OJT and Educational Attainment for CNC Machine Tool Programmers and Machinists in the Sacramento Region 22 SOC Occupation Description Computer Numerically Controlled Machine Tool Programmers, Metal and Plastic 2015 Jobs Sacramento Region Entry- Level Hourly Wage Median Hourly Wage Experienced Hourly Wage Typical Entry- Level Education 38 $17.33 $24.86 $31.21 High school diploma or equivalent Machinists 817 $13.90 $23.07 $34.65 High school diploma or equivalent TOTAL 855 Typical On- The-Job Training Long-term on-the-job training Long-term on-the-job training % of Workers with Some College or Associate Degree 43.6% 38.8% APPENDIX B: JOB LOSSES FOR MACHINISTS & CNC MACHINE TOOL PROGRAMMERS Though employment totals have rebounded from 2010 recession levels, between 2005 and 2015, regional employment declined for the two occupational categories most closely related to those used in the survey. EXHIBIT B: 2005, 2010 and 2015 Employment Estimates for Machinists and CNC Machine Tool Programmers in the Sacramento Region 23 SOC Occupation Description 2005 Jobs 2010 Jobs 2015 Jobs Computer Numerically Controlled Machine Tool (-12%) Programmers, Metal and Plastic Machinists (-7%) TOTAL (-7%) % Change ( ) QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, and Self-Employed. Also includes Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Educational attainment for workers 25 years and older by detailed occupation. Accessed December 1, Available at QCEW Eloyees, Non-QCEW Employees, and Self-Employed DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION 27

28 APPENDIX C: 116 OF 126 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES EMPLOY < 10 OF THE TWO OCCUPATIONS In the chart below, there are 126 manufacturing-related industries in the Sacramento region employing machinists and CNC operators. 24 But 116 of these industries each employs fewer than 10 machinists and CNC operators. The distribution of the occupations across industries partly reflects the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics counts employment in the manufacturing sector, and also suggests machinists and CNC operators work across multiple, diverse industries. The industry with the most concentration of employment in the region is Machine Shops (NAICS ) with 212 workers in the two occupations. Rail Transportation (NAICS , 45 jobs), Machine Tool Manufacturing (NAICS , 40 jobs), and Guided Missile and Space Vehicle Propulsion Unit and Propulsion Unit Parts Manufacturing (NAICS , 23 jobs), comprise the 20 to 49 category below. The BLS distinguishes between many of the industries employing fewer than 10 of the two occupations at the level mostly by the type of products or parts they produce, and the industries they supply. EXHIBIT C: Number of Industries in the Greater Sacramento Region Employing Machinists and CNC Operators by the Amount of Employment in Each Industry (6-digit NAICS) n = 126 Quantitiy of CNC Programmers AND Machinists per Industry < Number of Industries Employing Machinists and CNC Operators (6-digit NAICS) QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, and Self-Employed 28 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION

29 APPENDIX D: NUMBER OF WORKERS BY AVERAGE SIZE OF FIRM The figures in the chart below estimate the number of employees in firms with fewer than 10 employees (five employees) to obtain a distribution of machinists and CNC operators by firm size. 25 The amount given for the two occupational categories (n = 1,004) is higher than in the table in Appendix A (855). A large majority of the two occupations, about three-quarters of workers, works in businesses with fewer than 50 employees. About 40% work in firms with 10 to 19 employees. EXHIBIT D: Percent and Number of Machinists and CNC Operators and by Average Firm Size n = 1,004 (Estimated Total # CNC Operators & Machinists in Sacramento Region) >200 10%, %, 53 Average Firm Size %, %, %, 402 <10 9%, 92 Percent and Total Number of CNC and Machinists in Each Firm Size Category QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, and Self-Employed DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION 29

30 APPENDIX E: OCCUPATION TOTALS BY INDUSTRY IN 2005 & 2015 The vast majority of machinists and CNC operators work in manufacturing industries. Other industries include Rail Transportation (NAICS 4821), Commercial and Industrial Machinery Equipment (except Automotive and Electronic) Repair and Maintenance. Temporary employment and unclassified industries were omitted in the table below. The data also does not include industries employing fewer than 10 of the two occupations in 2015: there are 90 such industries at the 4-digit NAICS level. 26 EXHIBIT E: CNC Machine Programmers (SOC ) and Machinists (SOC ) by Industry in Sacramento Region Inverse Staffing Patterns, (4-Digit NAICS Level, n = 109) CNC & Machinists % of Total Industry (2016) NAICS Description CNC & Machinists in Industry 2005 CNC & Machinists in Industry 2015 % Change ( ) in 2 Occupations 3327 Machine Shops; Turned Product; and (11%) 25.5% Screw, Nut, and Bolt Manufacturing 3335 Metalworking Machinery % 7.6% Manufacturing 4821 Rail Transportation % 4.7% % 4.7% 3364 Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing 3323 Architectural and Structural Metals (33%) 2.9% Manufacturing 3391 Medical Equipment and Supplies % 2.8% Manufacturing 3339 Other General Purpose Machinery % 2.8% Manufacturing 3363 Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing (36%) 2.2% 8113 Commercial and Industrial Machinery % 2.1% and Equipment (except Automotive and Electronic) Repair and Maintenance 3332 Industrial Machinery Manufacturing <10 17 Insf. Data 2.1% 3329 Other Fabricated Metal Product % 2.1% Manufacturing 3331 Agriculture, Construction, and Mining % 1.8% Machinery Manufacturing 4238 Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies % 1.7% Merchant Wholesalers 9011 Federal Government, Civilian <10 14 Insf. Data 1.6% 3399 Other Miscellaneous Manufacturing % 1.4% 3365 Railroad Rolling Stock Manufacturing <10 12 Insf. Data 1.3% 3345 Navigational, Measuring, Electromedical, and Control Instruments Manufacturing (15%) 1.2% QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, and Self-Employed 30 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION

31 APPENDIX F: AVERAGE SIZE OF FIRM WHERE WORKERS ARE EMPLOYED Most firms in industries that employ machinists and CNC operators are small businesses. The chart below demonstrates that more than 60% of these firms employ fewer than 20 total employees. 27 Meanwhile, 45% of firms (about 550 firms), the strongest distribution, employ between 10 and 19 employees. Nearly 20% of firms employ fewer than 10 employees. A little more than 30% of firms fall into a middle category, employing between 20 and 99 workers. Only 4% employ 100 or more workers. Not all the firms represented below employ workers in the two occupational categories, but they are included in related manufacturing industry categories from inverse staffing patterns (6-digit NAICS). EXHIBIT F: Percent and Number of Firms by Average Firm Size (6-Digit NAICS Inverse Staffing Patterns) n = 1,225 (firms) >200 1%, %, 32 Average Frim Size %, %, %, 557 <10 19%, 235 Percent and Number of Firms per Category QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, and Self-Employed DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION 31

32 APPENDIX G: OCCUPATION TOTALS BY INDUSTRY IN 2005 & 2015 The table below shows the 20 manufacturing industries that added the most jobs between 2005 and (These are 6-digit NAICS inverse staffing patterns for CNC Machine Tool Programmers and Machinists.) Industries below the black line (*) have positive growth rates and higher location quotients, indicating industries that are advantaged in the region; using percent change, those industries do not come in order following NAICS , Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences. Fifty-nine industries of the 126 grew employment between 2005 and COE included 2010 employment figures to demonstrate effects from the recession; percentages do not factor in 2010 totals. Overall, these industries lost over 3,000 jobs, 7% of the 2005 total of about 43,500. EXHIBIT G: Top 20 Industries by Percent Change, in the Sacramento Region (n = 126) NAICS Description 2005 Jobs 2010 Jobs 2015 Jobs % Change 2016 Location Quotient Ophthalmic Goods Manufacturing <10 < % Unlaminated Plastics Film and Sheet (except Packaging) % 0.21 Manufacturing Guided Missile and Space Vehicle Manufacturing % Packaging Machinery Manufacturing % Printing Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing % Current-Carrying Wiring Device Manufacturing <10 < % Precision Turned Product Manufacturing % Plastic Bag and Pouch Manufacturing % Pharmaceutical Preparation Manufacturing % Aircraft Manufacturing % Other Aircraft Parts and Auxiliary Equipment 17 < % 0.10 Manufacturing Surgical and Medical Instrument Manufacturing % Commercial, Industrial, and Institutional Electric Lighting % 0.45 Fixture Manufacturing Cutting Tool and Machine Tool Accessory Manufacturing % Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences (except Biotechnology) 1,440 5,965 5, % Other Concrete Product Manufacturing* , % All Other Miscellaneous Nonmetallic Mineral Product % 1.57 Manufacturing* Railroad Rolling Stock Manufacturing* % Machine Tool Manufacturing* % Wineries* % Carbon and Graphite Product Manufacturing* % QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, and Self-Employed 32 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION

33 APPENDIX H: BOTTOM 20 INDUSTRIES IN THE SACRAMENTO REGION The table below shows the 20 manufacturing industries that lost the most jobs by percentage between 2005 and (These are 6-digit NAICS inverse staffing patterns for CNC Machine Tool Programmers and Machinists.) Industries below the black line (*) show job losses and higher location quotients, indicating industries that are advantaged, but of concern; using percent change, those industries do not come in order following NAICS , Other Millwork. Fifty-four of the 126 industries lost employment between 2005 and COE included 2010 employment figures to demonstrate effects from the recession; percentages do not factor in 2010 totals. Overall, these industries lost more than 3,000 jobs, 7% of the 2005 total of about 43,500. EXHIBIT H: Bottom 20 Industries by Percent Change, in the Sacramento Region (n = 126) NAICS Description 2005 Jobs 2010 Jobs 2015 Jobs % Change 2016 Location Quotient Semiconductor and Related Device Manufacturing 6,781 1, (90%) Motor Vehicle Electrical and Electronic Equipment Manufacturing (90%) Motor Vehicle Gasoline Engine and Engine Parts Manufacturing (87%) Tire Retreading (80%) Nonupholstered Wood Household Furniture Manufacturing (78%) Clay Building Material and Refractories Manufacturing (72%) Hardware Manufacturing 53 <10 16 (70%) Industrial Mold Manufacturing (69%) Plate Work Manufacturing (69%) Small Arms, Ordnance, and Ordnance Accessories Manufacturing (62%) Ready-Mix Concrete Manufacturing 1, (59%) Wood Kitchen Cabinet and Countertop Manufacturing 1, (54%) Ornamental and Architectural Metal Work Manufacturing (54%) Printed Circuit Assembly (Electronic Assembly) Manufacturing (51%) Dental Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing (47%) Other Millwork (including Flooring) (45%) Computer Terminal and Other Computer Peripheral Equipment Manufacturing* Guided Missile and Space Vehicle Propulsion Unit and Propulsion Unit Parts Manufacturing* 2,837 1,946 1,615 (43%) , ,005 (33%) Metal Window and Door Manufacturing* (27%) Wood Window and Door Manufacturing* (25%) Soft Drink Manufacturing* 1,267 1,382 1,070 (16%) Prefabricated Wood Building Manufacturing* (14%) Blind and Shade Manufacturing* (13%) Dried and Dehydrated Food Manufacturing* (2%) QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, and Self-Employed DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION 33

34 APPENDIX I: PLANNED, IN DEVELOPMENT & EXISTING MACHINIST & CNC OPERATOR TRAINING COMMUNITY COLLEGE PROGRAMS EXHIBIT I: Planned, In Development and Existing Machinist and CNC Operator Training Community College Programs College Program Development Status Notes Website Yuba College Manufacturing Technology Existing/ New Existing machinist program; new CNC Lab; includes SOLIDWORKS design, welding, hydraulics manufacture-tech San Joaquin Delta Mechanical Technology Existing Certificates in machinist and CNC, includes welding and CAD astech/programs/machineshop. html Sierra College Advanced Manufacturing and Design Planned A curriculum design advisory group is meeting on a regular basis N/A College of the Siskiyou N/A In Process/ New Details not known N/A Diablo Valley College Engineering Technology/ Industrial Machinist Maintenance Mechanic Existing 6 units of machinists courses part of the program that includes pneumatics, hydraulics, drawing cte-pdfs/engineeringtech-info.pdf Diablo Valley College Shasta College Industrial Design In process Going through program endorsement; stated goal: transfer to 4-Year Industrial Design program; includes 6 units of CNC and Machinist coursework CNC Operator New Recently state approved; manual machining and CNC machining courses; new, offered in Spring 2017; coursework includes robotic welding and blueprint reading. See BACCC Program Endorsement page at Home/program-endorsementguidelines Academic%20Affairs/BAIT/INDE/ Pages/CNC-Operator.aspx Sacramento City College N/A Planned/In Process Partnership with John F. Kennedy High School; recruiting instructor for CNC curriculum; curriculum development in academic year for program rollout in N/A Butte College N/A Planned/In Process Program will combine CNC curriculum with coding, welding, pneumatics, hydraulics, and electronics; equipment investments with SWP funding N/A College of the Redwoods Manufacturing Technology Existing 39-unit program includes machining, CNC, CAD, engineering and mechanical design, metalurgy, and Mastercam programming manufacturingtechnology 34 DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION

35 APPENDIX J: SURVEY METHODOLOGY The table below briefly outlines the methodology and sample composition for this study. In August and September of 2016, the COE conducted a survey of 89 organizations throughout the Sacramento region. Firms were asked to participate in a telephone survey. Only respondents that were familiar with their company s hiring and workforce needs participated in the survey. EXHIBIT J: Telephone Survey Methodology Technique Telephone survey Sample Pool Size 3,698 Number of Respondents 89 Field Dates August 16 September 21 Incidence Rate 17% The sample was based on staffing patterns that indicated industries with the highest concentration of employment of machinists and CNC operators as shown in the industry tables offered in the appendices above. DEMAND FOR MACHINISTS AND CNC OPERATORS: SACRAMENTO REGION 35