Implementing Socio-Ecological Resilience into Floodplain Planning, Design, & Capital Projects

Transcription

1 Implementing Socio-Ecological Resilience into Floodplain Planning, Design, & Capital Projects Steve Moddemeyer CollinsWoerman

2 La Conner, Washington

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4 Skagit Valley

5 Skagit Valley

6 Skagit Valley

7 Skagit Valley 7 coastal squeeze From: Eric Grossman, USGS content/uploads/sites/2/2014/11/grossman-_- Coastal-impacts.compressed.pdf

8 Skagit Valley 8 From: Eric Grossman, USGS

9 Photo by Joe Mabel

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11 Baseline conditions are shifting Climate change is shifting Rivers, landscapes, shorelines, and species adapting in real time to these shifts New technologies, resource scarcities, and population growth are changing our capabilities 11

12 A new dark age looms NYTimes

13 A new dark age looms NYTimes We design buildings and infrastructure to mitigate risk We use lessons from our elders Yet there is something dreadfully wrong with the world Image:[[File:Deathvalleysky nps big.jpg Deathvalleysky nps big]]

14 The Last Time CO2 Was This High, Humans Didn t Exist Mitochondrial Eve : single ancestor to all humans? Credit: Scripps Institution of Oceanography

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16 But that s not our training! Risk = Probability X Consequences Photo: Discott, Creative Commons 3.0

17 ADAPTING TO CHANGE Rokstrom Natural Systems Snowden & Boone Leader s Framework for Decision-making Milly et al Stationarity is Dead Types of Resilience Resist Complicated Stationarity Engineered resilience (Probabilities of failure) Adapt Complex (test-bed for innovation) Stationarity is Dead Socio- Ecological Resilience -capacity to adapt -attributes of resilience Transform Chaos (openness to innovation) Moddemeyer, 2017

18 it just keeps going Rokstrom Snowden & Boone Leader's Framework for Decision-making Milly et al Stationarity is Dead Types of Resilience Design intent Design only for the front loop of Adaptive Cycle vs. Design for entire Adaptive Cycle vs. Back loop only Responsibility Decision-making Attributes Regulations & Training Build vs Emerge Optimization Silo-based vs Community based Expert Training Story Openness to innovation Implementation (Capital planning) Approach to innovation Collaboration - low Resist Complicated Stationarity Engineered resilience Design to threshold (1% - based on storm). Don't worry about probabilities of failure recovery cradle to grave Large-scale top down consultive decisionmaking big, heavy, dry, brittle training and regulations "build" resilience provide predictability and - resilience is achieved discourage innovation centralized asset-based Experts have deep training in Customers are - constrained opportunities for prioritized synchronized optimized with finite Failure not an system thinking ("what's one silo of expertise. PhD's recipients of services. novelty and innovation investments delivered number of known option - and is best for the water have the deepest training in In disasters they are - actors likely to actively resist when needed( Brown P.R., variables penalized system") the deepest silo of a subject. victims change and prefer stable and 2016) predictable environment Nice to have - mostly between other experts - medium - uncertainty in the future makes it difficult to act Adapt Complex (test-bed for innovation) Stationarity is Dead Socio-Ecological Resilience - capacity to adapt - attributes of resilience Design to threshold AND recovery time (set by community) cradle to cradle Multi-scale bottom-up consultive decisionmaking training and regulations anticipate flexibility and small, light, wet, flexible adaptation and expect innovation resilience "emerges" - resilience is an emergent quality of a system solutions are hypotheses to be tested and adapted distributed multi-asset - expertise is wide, systemsbased. systems thinking Customers are ("what's best for the partners in service - synthesis is valued across a water system, the delivery,. In disasters broad range of disciplines community, the they are survivors and subjects environment") strategically and - openness to fragmentation makes it experiment, difficult to mobilize sufficient learning, pilot multiple, multi-scale pilots resources to support projects as to identify possible future innovation projects (Westley) hypotheses - pathways - prepare for forthcoming where failure is opportunities for change by one possible raising awareness, leveraging result resources, building social capital, linking innovative ideas to resource opportunities. Requires an adaptive culture of collaboration, supporting everyone to achieve values and goals Transform Socio-Ecological Stationarity is (still) Resilience Chaos (turbulent Dead and new and - transformation change + openness to different stable states theory innovation) (basins of attraction) - mobilize resources may emerge for innovations - exploratory and experimental - systemic shifts in institutional underpinning such as mental models, management routines, and resource flows." (Westley, F.R 2013) - navigate the transformation - rules and authority - innovative - variety of actors systems are undermined - shifts in norms pursuing strategies that - create structure to - can spin out to new are attuned to guide situation towards steady-states and opportunities arising adaptive state alternative basins of from dynamic changes - consider innovation and attraction that may or occurring within the opportunities for change may not be preferred system they are seeking to transform. (Westley 2013) - challenges to technical and legal frameworks - consideration of new scientific frameworks. (Westley) - changes in flows of political authority and resources resilience "emerges" - increase bridging, bonding, - opportunities are and linking across sectors - new collaborations not static, rather they and scales to build trust, and alliances between are dynamic and shift legitimacy, and social capital actors and as the system moves - identify strategic organizations through different interventions to change the - work toward new phases of trajectory of the systems common goals transformation - use adaptive management - deploy resources in - work in concert with strategies to monitor support of novel opportunities and interventions and intervene endeavors (Westley) resource flows as needed to achieve preferred outcomes Experts can short-circuit - identify and transformation. communicate Transformation is facilitated - survivors may opportunities for (often by: question existing small) wins as leverage - new combinations - knowledge carriers and institutional points that help to present huge potential retainers - identify strategic arrangements which - high reconceptualize the for novelty and them - stewards and leaders interventions to can create a "meaning - turbulent cauldron of change system emergency of selforganized behavior - interpreters and sense change the vacuum" where innovation and novelty - work to formalize makers trajectory of the - new meaning and can emerge innovations and enshrine that can be supported - networkers and facilitators systems sense making is them in new institutions and amplified - visionaries and inspirers needed to guide - seek outside or (Plowman et al. 2007) - innovators and transformation international recognition if experimenters needed to bolster - followers and reinforcers adoption (Folke et al. 2003)

19 SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE: It s not how often it breaks its how long it takes to recover

20 (Holling, 1986) 20

21 Adaptive Cycle 21

22 Resist 22

23 Adapt 23

24 Transform 24

25 Adapt 25

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31 ATTRIBUTES OF SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE Diversity Modularity Connectivity Storage Feedback Story Trust Self-Organizing Image: USGS

32 DIFFERENCE FROM TRADITIONAL ENGINEERED RESILIENCE 32 PLANNING 1. Uses time-to-recovery 2. Accounts for increased variability from climate change 3. Reveals interdependencies between infrastructure systems 4. Reflects the nexus between built and natural systems 5. Identifies community-based priorities 6. Avoids scale blindness 7. Rewards flexibility and adaptability 8. Incorporates social equity and capacity to adapt

33 33 THE COPENHAGEN EXAMPLE

34 34 Atelier Dreiseitl

35 35 COPENHAGEN STRATEGIC FLOOD MASTERPLAN Atelier Dreiseitl

36 36 COPENHAGEN STRATEGIC FLOOD MASTERPLAN Atelier Dreiseitl

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38 It s not complicated. It s complex. Photo: WDFW

39 We can do this. Photo: Will Wonka, Paramount Pictures

40 Thank You! Steve Moddemeyer Principal CollinsWoerman

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42 Code is not enough 10% Probability of Exceedance in 50 years 60 to 80% g 40 to 50% g 80 to 110% g 110 to 145% g 30 to 40% g 40 to 50% g 110 to 145% g 80 to 110% g 60 to 80% g 50 to 60% g 110 to 145% g 40 to 50% g 30 to 40% g

43 Code is not enough 2% Probability of Exceedance in 50 years 120 to 140% g 100 to 120% g 80 to 110% g 200 to 300% g 60 to 80% g 100 to 120% g 200 to 300% g 160 to 200% g 140 to 160% 120 to 140% g 200 to 300% g 100 to 200% g 80 to 100% g

44 Adapt 44

45 Thank you!! S T E V E M O D D E M E Y E R C O L L I N S W O E R M A N

46 g Attributes Snowden Rokstrom & Milly Regulations Snowden et al & & Types Build Milly of vs et Emerge al Design Types Optimization intent of Design Design Silo-based only intent for the Boone Leader's Stationarity Training Boone is Leader's Resilience Stationarity is Resilience front loop of vsadaptive Framework for Dead Framework for Dead Community Cycle based Decision-making Decision-making vs. 46 Design for entire Adaptive Cycle vs. Back loop only Responsibility Design Expert only Training for the Decision-making Responsibility Story Openness Attributes Decision-makin to innov front loop of Adaptive Cycle vs. Design for entire Adaptive Cycle vs. Back loop only - low centralized asset-based Experts have deep training in Customers are - constrained opportun training and regulations Engineered resilience Design to Engineered threshold optimized resilience (1% with finite Design to threshold (1% Large-scale top down Large-scale top down "build" resilience system thinking ("what's one silo of expertise. PhD's recipients of services. novelty and innovation big, Complicated heavy, dry, Resist brittle Stationarity provide Complicated predictability and - based Stationarity storm). Don't - based number worry on about of known storm). Don't worry about cradle to grave consultive cradle decisionmakinmaking to grave big, heavy, consultive dry, brittle decision- - resilience is achieved best for the water have the deepest training in In disasters they are - actors likely to activel discourage innovationprobabilities of failure recoveryprobabilities variablesof failure recovery system") the deepest silo of a subject. victims change and prefer stabl predictable environmen p distributed multi-asset Socio-Ecological Socio-Ecological training and regulations resilience "emerges" systems thinking Resilience Design to Resilience threshold solutions AND are Design to threshold AND Complex (test-bed for anticipate Complex flexibility (test-bed and for - resilience is an emergent ("what's best for the small, light, Adapt wet, flexible Stationarity is Dead - capacity Stationarity to adapt is Dead recovery - time capacity hypotheses (set to by adapt to be recovery time (set by innovation) adaptation innovation) and expect quality of a system water system, the - attributes of community) - attributes tested and of adaptedcommunity) innovation community, the resilience resilience environment") - medium - uncertainty in the futu makes it difficult to act strategically and fragmentation makes it - expertise is wide, systemsbased. Multi-scale bottom-up Multi-scale bottom-u Customers are difficult to mobilize suff partners in service resources to support cradle - synthesis to cradle is valued across consultive a cradle decisionmakinmaking to cradle small, consultive light, wet, decision- flexible delivery,. In disasters innovation projects (We broad range of disciplines they are survivors - prepare for forthcomi and subjects opportunities for chang raising awareness, lever resources, building soci capital, linking innovativ to resource opportuniti ed ds and ge - innovative - shifts in norms - can spin out to new Chaos (turbulent steady-states and change + Transform openness to alternative basins of innovation) attraction that may or may not be preferred Experts can short-circuit resilience "emerges" transformation. - increase bridging, bonding, - Transformation navigate the is facilitated - navigate the - opportunities are - survivors may and linking across sectors - exploratory and - exploratory - new collaborations and transformation by: transformation - challenges to technical not static, rather they - rules question and authority existing - innovative - rules and authority and scales to build experimental trust, experimental and alliances between - knowledge variety of actors carriers and - variety of actors and legal frameworks Socio-Ecological Socio-Ecological are dynamic and shift systems institutional are undermined - shifts systems in norms are undermi Stationarity is (still) legitimacy, Stationarity and is social (still) - systemic capitalshifts in - systemic actors shifts and in pursuing retainersstrategies that pursuing strategies that - consideration of new Resilience Resilience as the system moves - create arrangements structure to which - can - high - spin create out structure to new to Dead and Chaos new and (turbulent - identify Dead and strategic new and institutional underpinning institutional organizations underpinning are - stewards attuned and to leaders are attuned to scientific frameworks. - transformation - transformation through different guide can situation create towards a "meaning steady-states - turbulent guide situation cauldron and towar of different change stable + states openness to interventions different stable to change such states as the mental models, such - as work mental toward models, new opportunities - interpreters and arising sense opportunities arising (Westley) theory theory phases of adaptive vacuum" state alternative where adaptive innovation basins stateof and n (basins of innovation) attraction) trajectory (basins of the attraction) systems management routines, and management common routines, goals and from makers dynamic changes from dynamic changes - changes in flows of - mobilize resources - mobilize transformation resources - consider - new innovation meaning and and attraction can - consider emerge that innovation may or may emerge - use may adaptive emergemanagement resource flows." (Westley, F.R resource - deploy flows." resources (Westley, in F.R occurring - networkers within and the facilitators occurring within the political authority and for innovations for innovations - work concert with opportunities sense making for change is may opportunities not be preferred for cha strategies to monitor 2013) 2013) support of novel system - visionaries they and are seeking inspirers system they are seeking resources opportunities and needed to guide interventions and intervene endeavors (Westley) to - innovators transform. and (Westley to transform. (Westley resource flows transformation as needed to achieve 2013) experimenters 2013) preferred outcomes - followers and reinforcers (Folke et al. 2003)

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48 Skagit Liquefaction State of Washington DNR ftp://ww4.dnr.wa.gov/geology/pubs/ofr04-20/ofr _sheet57_skagit_liq.pdf 48

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50 ENGINEERED RESILIENCE: HOW OFTEN DOES IT BREAK? Common Drier Rare Rare Wetter Today s 100-year drought Today s 100-year flood

51 ENGINEERED RESILIENCE: HOW OFTEN DOES 51 IT BREAK? Drier Rare Rare Wetter Today s 100-year drought Today s 100-year flood

52 ENGINEERED RESILIENCE: HOW OFTEN DOES 52 IT BREAK? Drier Rare Rare Wetter Today s 100-year drought Today s 100-year flood Tomorrow s new 100-year flood?

53 ENGINEERED RESILIENCE: HOW OFTEN DOES 53 IT BREAK? Drier Rare Rare Wetter Tomorrow s new 100- year drought? Today s 100-year drought Today s 100-year flood

54 ENGINEERED RESILIENCE: HOW OFTEN DOES 54 IT BREAK? Drier Rare Rare Wetter Range of possible 100- year droughts? Range of possible 100- year floods?

55 LIVABILITY, HEALTHY ECOSYSTEMS, ECONOMIC VITALITY ARE LINKED