Economic Modelling: The Analyst Input-Output Module

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1 Economic Modelling: The Analyst Input-Output Module Regional Economic Development Branch, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs EDCO Conference February 9, 2017

2 Why are we Here 1. Provide a brief background on Analyst, EDAR, and the demand for economic modelling through the Input-Output (I-O) module 2. Provide high-level considerations in use of the I-O tool 3. Demonstrate the I-O tool 4. Provide how and when clients can access the tool 2

3 What is Analyst?

4 Why OMAFRA has Invested in Economic Modelling Ontario s economic development organizations do not have cost effective access to economic modelling tools A better understanding of your economy Better informed decision making of where you should be dedicating your resources Attract and retain high-quality jobs Communicate the impact of different investments in your community 4

5 Economic Modelling Descriptive Predictive 5

6 Input-Output: Descriptive Reports 6

7 Regional Requirements Report Quantify the goods and services that a region requires from each industry, as well as the degree to which those requirements are met within the region. Question: How does the Food Manufacturing Industry Impact the Greater Golden Horseshoe? 7

8 Partnering for Regional Economic Prosperity

9 Data, Software & Consulting for Regional Economic Developers Who we re working with: 200+ Economic Development orgs 125 Workforce Development orgs Hundreds of postsecondary institutions (College & University) Fortune 500 companies Real estate, site selectors

It s in Our Name Economic Modelling Specialists,

Dr. Hank Robison Co-founder and Senior Economist

10 It s in Our Name Economic Modelling Specialists, Intl. I-O Data/Dev Team: Jonathan Crapuchettes Justin Whear Kaleb Trotter Lindsey Doolan Stephen Grammar Ashley Beauchamp Curtis Spencer Dr. Hank Robison Co-founder and Senior Economist Dr. Kjell Christophersen Co-founder and Senior Economist

$The Importance of Multipliers to Regional Economies With only a fraction of the jobs, the innovation sector generates a disproportionate number of additional local jobs and therefore$ A healthy traded sector benefits the local economy directly, as it generates well-paid jobs, and indirectly as it creates additional jobs in the nontraded sector.

A healthy traded sector benefits the local economy directly, as it generates well-paid jobs, and indirectly as it creates additional jobs in the nontraded sector.

11 The Importance of Multipliers to Regional Economies With only a fraction of the jobs, the innovation sector generates a disproportionate number of additional local jobs and therefore profoundly shapes the local economy. A healthy traded sector benefits the local economy directly, as it generates well-paid jobs, and indirectly as it creates additional jobs in the nontraded sector. What is truly remarkable is that this indirect effect to the local economy is much larger than the direct effect. My research, based on an analysis of 11 million American workers in 320 metropolitan areas, shows that for each new high-tech job in a metropolitan area, five additional local jobs are created outside of high tech in the long run. Enrico Moretti

12 Why develop a regional Input-Output Model anyway?

13 Billions of Calculations Great Scott Marty

spending generated by the arena and conference center will result in over $26 million in sales at local

14 Using Input-Output to Measure the Impact of Development Eastern Maine EDC, City of Bangor and Penobscot County Emsi sales, jobs and earnings multipliers used to determine that new visitor and facility spending generated by the arena and conference center will result in over $26 million in sales at local businesses., which will support 405 full and part-time jobs paying $9.7 million in wages to local workers annually.

15 Partnering for Prosperity and Closing the Skills Gap Partnership between: Regional EDC City of Decatur Richland Community College

16 Economic Modelling Descriptive Predictive 16

17 What you need to know about Input-Output modelling Data based on estimates, rather than observations 17

18 What you need to know about Input-Output modelling Works best in functional economic regions 18

19 What you need to know about Input-Output modelling Requires detailed knowledge about inputs 19

20 What you need to know about Input-Output modelling Model has potential to over- or under-state impacts 20

21 Input-Output: Predictive Reports 21

22 22 Input-Output Scenario: Gay Lea Teeswater Plant Expansion

23 Input-Output Scenario: Gay Lea Teeswater Plan Expansion Assumptions: Workers commute an average of 40 minutes to location Online: 80 jobs retained Dairy Product Production (NAICS: 3115) 23

24 Recap & Summary: What reports are available in Analyst I-O Descriptive: Regional Jobs, Wages, and Sales Regional Requirements Exports Table Industry Supply Chain Predictive: Regional Multipliers Input-Output Scenario 24

25 Next Steps Roll-out access in Spring 2017 February: OMAFRA/MNDM Advisors can provide data requests March: Available to all clients through Analyst Northern and Southern Ontario training Half-day training sessions Pilot Training (March 3, Guelph) Eastern Ontario (March 21, Kingston) Western & Northern Ontario (TBC) 25

26 Questions? Myles Buck, Ec.D Economic Development Specialist 26