Manufacturing Overview

Transcription

1 Manufacturing Overview Region: Seattle MSA Timeframe: ; Prepared for: Shoreline Community College April 21, 2009 Economic Modeling Specialists Inc Alturas Dr., Moscow, ID

2 Introduction Region Seattle Metropolitan Statistical Area, Washington Timeframe Historical Industry Overview: January 2006 through December of 2008 Occupational Outlook: 2006 through 2011 Purpose and Goals This report was assembled to help supplement the planning activities of Shoreline Community College. The goal is to provide solid and timely data about the manufacturing sector to augment their first hand knowledge and in doing so, equip the college to allocate resources more effectively and drive regional collaboration around needed skills training for manufacturing. Because of the amount of economic turmoil in the past few months, the past three years of historical data were chosen for the first part of this report about the Manufacturing sector. The point was to provide perspective on what has actually happened in the region and highlight how those changes might affect the work of the college. The second portion of the report considers the Manufacturing workforce and looks forward 3 years to provide some perspective on the employment outlook for occupations within the field. With the amount of change that has occurred, these projections should be taken with a grain of salt and vetted both by applying the reader s local knowledge and by conversations with with local stakeholders. Background This report integrates data from multiple perspectives to assess regional wages, growth, and industry employment patterns. The report is driven by a proprietary database created by Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc. that is based on data from over 90 government sources (including the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of the Census, and individual state agencies). The goal is to produce a simple and concrete source of regional economic information. Note: Based on the fact that we are including so many data sources EMSI's data will usually differ from what is published by any single government agency. For more information, see the final page of this report. Terms and Definitions Understanding the following terms is crucial to interpreting the data included in this report. Jobs: Annual average full-time and part-time positions (not unduplicated head-count of workers) for nearly all types of workers (payroll employees, proprietors, railroad workers, military personnel, and more) in both the public and private sector. Industry: A category of business activity defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Occupation: A category of workers defined by the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Wage: Occupational wages are reported as median hourly wage only. Projections/Forecasts: Estimates of future job numbers based on (1) recent historical regional trends and (2) published forecasts created by a consensus of state and federal agencies. State: For region/state comparisons, regions that include portions of multiple states are compared to the aggregate data for all states. Regions that include an entire state are compared to the nation only. EMSI 1

3 Industry Size and Growth This section highlights the changes in primary economic sectors within the Seattle MSA (S-MSA) from The Manufacturing sector is highlighted by the red cross hairs within the chart. Description 2006 Jobs 2008 Jobs Growth % Growth 2009 EPW Agriculture, natural resources, and mining 13,379 12,680 (699) (5%) $55,239 Construction 149, ,851 7,878 5% $60,674 Manufacturing 186, ,398 6,049 3% $91,800 Trade, transportation, and utilities 382, ,805 5,001 1% $50,401 Information 87,632 93,298 5,667 6% $125,360 Financial activities 204, ,848 2,373 1% $57,073 Professional and business services 321, ,966 19,030 6% $63,927 Education and health services 229, ,578 12,585 5% $45,339 Leisure and hospitality 186, ,353 13,788 7% $21,902 Other services 111, ,295 3,023 3% $25,920 Government 290, ,232 11,023 4% $64,570 2,164,587 2,250,304 85,717 4% EMSI 2

4 This section compares the S-MSA to the state data for Description 2006 Regional Jobs % Regional Jobs 2006 State Jobs % State Jobs Agriculture, natural resources, and mining 13, % 128, % Construction 149, % 263, % Manufacturing 186, % 296, % Trade, transportation, and utilities 382, % 659, % Information 87, % 108, % Financial activities 204, % 320, % Professional and business services 321, % 479, % Education and health services 229, % 414, % Leisure and hospitality 186, % 322, % Other services 111, % 198, % Government 290, % 590, % EMSI 3

5 Current Economic Base Economic base analysis models the regional economy to show which groups of industries bring money into the region rather than simply circulating dollars that are already present. The first type of industries is called basic while the second type is called non-basic. Examples of common basic industries include manufacturing, agriculture and natural resources, and state or federal government enterprises. Basic industries are important because growth or decline in them results in large ripple effects across the economy. Basic industries generally export products and services to non-regional purchasers. (There are also other ways that a region can bring in money: for example, the income of out-commuters in a bedroom community, or residents Social Security benefits from the federal government.) The model calculates how much of each industry s jobs and earnings rely on its exports, then uses multiplier effects to attribute jobs and earnings from other industries to the original basic industry. So Manufacturing might account for only 1,000 direct jobs and $50m direct earnings in a region, but as a basic industry it might support an additional 500 indirect jobs and $20m in indirect earnings throughout the economy. Note that economic base sector names and definitions are different from those used elsewhere in this report. Economic Base, Jobs Economic Base, Earnings EMSI 4

6 Economic Base Data Sector Jobs Earnings(K) Jobs % Earnings % EPW(K) Government 469,829 $27,373,292 21% 21% $58 Services 402,623 $20,711,429 18% 16% $51 Communications 294,090 $20,324,453 13% 16% $69 Manufacturing 293,992 $21,566,485 13% 17% $73 Residents` Outside Income 247,637 $10,612,518 11% 8% $43 Visitors 123,422 $5,389,437 6% 4% $44 Exogenous Investment 115,191 $6,465,652 5% 5% $56 Finance 99,537 $6,249,646 5% 5% $63 All Other 87,448 $5,175,791 4% 4% $59 Construction 54,330 $2,912,620 2% 2% $54 Agriculture 11,926 $657,983 1% 1% $55 Mining 1,788 $105,384 0% 0% $59 Jobs : Total direct and indirect jobs dependent on each sector as a basic industry. Earnings : Total direct and indirect earnings dependent on each sector as a basic industry, in thousands of dollars. EPW : Annual average earnings per worker for all jobs and earnings dependent on each sector, in thousands of dollars. Residentsʼ Outside Income : Includes investment dividends, interest, royalties, rents, transfer payments, and other forms of income gained from outside the region itself. Manufacturing--Jobs Multiplier In the S-MSA the Manufacturing sector directly employs 192,398 workers. That employment ripples out through the economy to produce another 101,524 jobs. In effect, the Manufacturing sector is responsible for supporting 293,992 jobs in the S-MSA or thirteen percent of all employment. A common way of communicating that relationship is through the multiplier. In this case, the Manufacturing jobs multiplier is For every 1 job in Manufacturing another.52 jobs is created (or destroyed) in the S-MSA. EMSI 5

7 Manufacturing Change Comparison This chart and table highlight the change within the Manufacturing sector for the Region (S-MSA), the state (Washington), and the nation. Description 2006 Jobs 2008 Jobs Change % Change EPW Regional Total 186, ,398 6,049 3% $91,800 State Total 296, ,154 6,471 2% $79,059 National Total 14,654,607 13,937,640 (716,967) (5%) $73,259 EMSI 6

8 Manufacturing Detail-- Largest Sub-sectors These are the largest sub-sectors within Manufacturing measured by number of workers employed in NAICS Code Description 2006 Jobs 2008 Jobs Change % Change Aircraft manufacturing 62,135 68,389 6,254 10% Other aircraft parts and equipment 7,837 10,438 2,601 33% Fresh and frozen seafood processing 3,583 3,569 (14) 0% Electromedical and electrotherapeutic apparatus manufacturing 3,552 3, % All other plastics product manufacturing 3,139 2,498 (641) (20%) Commercial lithographic printing 2,996 2,466 (530) (18%) Machine shops 2,560 2, % Wood kitchen cabinet and countertop mfg. 2,492 2,050 (442) (18%) Sheet metal work manufacturing 2,290 2, % Sawmills 2,284 1,999 (285) (12%) EMSI 7

9 Manufacturing Detail--Fastest Growing These are the fastest growing sub-sectors within Manufacturing measured by the number of new jobs ( Change within the table) from 2006 to NAICS Code Description 2006 Jobs 2008 Jobs Change Change % Aircraft manufacturing 62,135 68,389 6,254 10% Other aircraft parts and equipment 7,837 10,438 2,601 33% Overhead cranes, hoists, and monorail systems 2,188 2, % Coffee and tea manufacturing 520 1, % Other electronic component manufacturing 1,544 2, % Machine shops 2,560 2, % Plastics bag manufacturing % Specialty canning < Other women's outerwear manufacturing % Frozen fruit and vegetable manufacturing % EMSI 8

10 Manufacturing Detail--Fastest Declining These are the fastest declining sub-sectors within Manufacturing measured by the number of new jobs from 2006 to NAICS Code Description 2006 Jobs 2008 Jobs Change Change % All other plastics product manufacturing 3,139 2,498 (641) (20%) Commercial lithographic printing 2,996 2,466 (530) (18%) Wood kitchen cabinet and countertop mfg. 2,492 2,050 (442) (18%) Boat building 2,132 1,738 (394) (18%) Other guided missile and space vehicle parts (386) (46%) Truss manufacturing (384) (65%) Heating equipment, except warm air furnaces (295) (44%) Women's blouse and shirt manufacturing (291) (76%) Sawmills 2,284 1,999 (285) (12%) Heavy duty truck manufacturing (281) (29%) EMSI 9

11 Largest Production Occupations Production occupations make up a large portion of manufacturing employment especially within the low-to-middle skill areas. This table highlights the demand for the top 20 largest (by 2006 employment) from SOC Code Description 2006 Jobs 2011 Jobs Change % Change New & Rep. Jobs % New & Rep Median Hourly Earnings Team assemblers 8,123 7,645 (478) (6%) 290 4% $ First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers 6,694 6,677 (17) 0% % $ Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers 5,063 5, % % $ Assemblers and fabricators, all other 4,638 4,013 (625) (13%) (32) (1%) $ Helpers--Production workers 4,455 4,276 (179) (4%) 332 7% $ Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers 4,218 3,742 (476) (11%) 371 9% $ Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers 3,915 4, % % $ Machinists 3,096 3, % % $ Cabinetmakers and bench carpenters 2,622 2,069 (553) (21%) (250) (10%) $ Packaging and filling machine operators and tenders 2,560 2,485 (75) (3%) 213 8% $ Laundry and dry-cleaning workers 2,389 2, % % $ Production workers, all other 2,238 2,169 (69) (3%) 143 6% $ Slaughterers and meat packers 2,222 2,010 (212) (10%) 102 5% $ Sewing machine operators 2,097 1,742 (355) (17%) (15) (1%) $ Bakers 1,981 1,963 (18) (1%) 188 9% $ Aircraft structure, surfaces, rigging, and systems assemblers Computer-controlled machine tool operators, metal and plastic 1,815 2, (15%) % $ ,779 1, (10%) % $ Engine and other machine assemblers 1,699 1, % % $ Printing machine operators 1,697 1,529 (168) (10%) 47 3% $ Cutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic 1,613 1,497 (116) (7%) % $15.64 EMSI 10

12 Manufacturing Occupation Cluster The previous table considered Production Occupations, which are in heavy decline within the S-MSA. The following tables take a wider view of the potential occupations employed in Manufacturing. These range across a variety of activity types and education/training requirements. The tables display workers from several occupational areas including: Architecture and Engineering; Management; Installation, Maintenance, and Repair; and Transportation and Material Moving. The goal is to indicate areas where the NAM Skill Certification System might be applicable. Occupations are grouped by education requirements. The top occupations within each education level, that show demand ( Annual Openings), are displayed. Occupational Area Key: Management Architecture and Engineering Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Production Transportation and Material Moving Bachelor s Degree SOC Code Description 2006 Jobs 2011 Jobs Change % Change New & Rep. Jobs Annual Openings 2009 Median Hourly Earnings Aerospace engineers 9,635 10,772 1,137 12% $ Civil engineers 7,808 8, % $ Industrial engineers 2,654 3, % $ Mechanical engineers 3,091 3, % $ Architects, except landscape and naval 2,972 3, % $ Engineers, all other 3,997 4, % $ Electronics engineers, except computer 2,980 3, % $ Electrical engineers 1,869 2, % $ Environmental engineers % $ Computer hardware engineers 1,046 1, % $ Nuclear engineers % $ Materials engineers % $39.80 EMSI 11

13 Work Experience in a related Field SOC Code Description 2006 Jobs 2011 Jobs Change % Change New & Rep. Jobs Annual Openings 2009 Median Hourly Earnings First-line supervisors/managers of mechanics, installers, and repairers First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers First-line supervisors/managers of transportation and material-moving machine and vehicle operators 4,915 5, % $ ,694 6,677 (17) 0% $ ,776 3, % $ Industrial production managers 1,447 1, % $45.81 Associates Degree SOC Code Description 2006 Jobs 2011 Jobs Change % Change New & Rep. Jobs Annual Openings 2009 Median Hourly Earnings Industrial engineering technicians 1,769 1, % $ Engineering technicians, except drafters, all other Electrical and electronic engineering technicians 1,808 1, % $ ,563 1, % $ Civil engineering technicians 1,107 1, % $ Mechanical engineering technicians % $ Medical equipment repairers % $ Environmental engineering technicians % $ Aerospace engineering and operations technicians % 49 8 $ Semiconductor processors (42) (11%) 10 2 $ Electro-mechanical technicians % 7 1 $19.70 EMSI 12

14 Postsecondary Vocational Award SOC Code Description 2006 Jobs 2011 Jobs Change % Change New & Rep. Jobs Annual Openings 2009 Median Hourly Earnings Automotive service technicians and mechanics 7,416 7, % $ Aircraft mechanics and service technicians 3,980 4, % $ Electrical and electronics repairers, commercial and industrial equipment 1,818 1, % $ Drafters, all other 2,092 2, % $ Bus and truck mechanics and diesel engine specialists 2,853 2, % $ Architectural and civil drafters 2,415 2, % $ Mobile heavy equipment mechanics, except engines 2,054 2, % $ Ship engineers 935 1, % $ Mechanical drafters 956 1, % $28.57 On the Job Training SOC Code Description 2006 Jobs 2011 Jobs Change % Change New & Rep. Jobs Annual Openings 2009 Median Hourly Earnings Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand 30,387 29, (3%) $ Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer 18,652 18, % $ Truck drivers, light or delivery services 13,405 13, % $ Industrial truck and tractor operators 8,837 8,726 (111) (1%) $ Taxi drivers and chauffeurs 4,977 5, % $ Maintenance and repair workers, general 14,512 15, % $ Driver/sales workers 8,141 8,107 (34) 0% $ Cleaners of vehicles and equipment 4,506 4, % $ Bus drivers, transit and intercity 3,071 3, % $ Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers 3,915 4, % $ Bus drivers, school 4,469 4, % $ Parking lot attendants 2,150 2, % $10 EMSI 13

15 Data Sources and Methodology Occupation Data EMSI s occupation data are based on EMSI s industry data and regional occupational statistics and staffing patterns taken from the Occupational Employment Statistics program (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). Additional wage information is derived from the American Community Survey, and wages are adjusted and interpolated at the county and ZIP code level using EMSI earnings data from relevant industries. Industry Data In order to capture a comprehensive picture of regional industry employment (EMSI Complete Employment), EMSI basically combines unsuppressed covered employment data from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) produced by the Department of Labor with total employment data in the Regional Economic Information System published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, augmented with County Business Patterns and Nonemployer Statistics published by the U.S. Census Bureau. Projections are based on the latest available EMSI industry data combined with past trends in each industry and the industry growth rates in national projections (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and statelevel projections (individual state agencies). Unemployment data are based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics program. EMSI also provides a more limited industry and occupation data set, EMSI Covered Employment, which is an unsuppressed version of QCEW. EMSI 14

16 About EMSI Products and Services EMSI provides integrated regional economic and labor market data, web-based analysis tools, data-driven reports, and custom consulting services. EMSI specializes in detailed information about regional economies for assessment and planning purposes, bringing together industry, workforce, economic development, and education/training perspectives. EMSI s expertise is centered on regional economics, data integration and analysis, programming, and design so that it can provide the best available products and services for regional decision makers. EMSI recently merged with its sister company CCbenefits Inc. well known for conducting socioeconomic impact studies for over 800 community and technical colleges across the nation to offer an integrated portfolio of solutions for college, workforce, and economic development professionals. Clients EMSI s diverse client base includes hundreds of colleges, workforce boards, economic development organizations, governmental agencies, economists, consultants, academics, and private-sector analysts. With over four thousand current clients in the U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom, EMSI s products and services are critical for strategic decision making and informed regional policy. Contact EMSI For more information about EMSI, visit us at If you have any questions about this report please contact Luke Jankovic by phone at or , luke@economicmodeling.com. EMSI 15