COMPETITIVENESS CALCULATION OF EDUCATIONAL SERVICES IN CHINESE CITY ZHENJIANG

Transcription

1 COMPETITIVENESS CALCULATION OF EDUCATIONAL SERVICES IN CHINESE CITY ZHENJIANG Natala R Knyrk, Admral Makarov Natonal unversty of Shpbuldng Kostyantyn V Koshkn, Admral Makarov Natonal unversty of Shpbuldng Alexander S Ryzhkov, Admral Makarov Natonal unversty of Shpbuldng Rostyslav S Ryzhkov, Admral Makarov Natonal unversty of Shpbuldng ABSTRACT The artcle proposes a methodology for assessng the compettve poston of the unversty n the market of educatonal servces, based on the development and applcaton of the model of mutual nfluence of the factors of the unversty's compettveness. An algorthm for assessng compettveness s presented. The ndcators of the actvty of the hgher educatonal nsttuton that have the greatest mpact on the compettve poston of the unversty are hghlghted accordng to the Pareto prncple. A cogntve map of the stuaton that determnes the mutual nfluence of the factors s constructed. A smulaton model based on the ntegraton of the prncples of system dynamcs and cogntve modelng, whch allows the balancng of values of key parameters, s developed. The values of the model varables durng the experments can be changed, whle determnng the senstvty of the vector of output parameters. Usng a method based on specfyng control ponts, a scale of characterstcs for each factor has been developed. The results of modelng on the bass of real data are presented. Keywords: Compettveness of the Unversty, Smulaton Model, Cogntve Modelng, System Dynamcs. INTRODUCTION In condtons of dynamc transformatons of the hgher school, rapdly changng economc condtons, mprovng the qualty requrements of professonal educaton, contnuous updatng of tranng technologes, ncreasng competton n the market of educatonal servces there were problems of ensurng reslence, mantanng the fnancal state at a suffcent level and searchng for sources of sustanable development before Ukranan unverstes. It s necessary to develop and mplement a strategy to ncrease the compettveness of the unversty and ts educatonal servces to solve the problems that arse n condtons of nstablty and uncertanty of the external envronment, a sgnfcant shortage of budget fundng for hgher educaton. Internatonal jont educatonal programs are an mportant tool for ncreasng the compettveness of unverstes and, as a consequence, a factor n the development not only of regonal but also natonal educaton systems (Danlova, 26). It s necessary to develop measures to mprove compettveness, make programs to enter new markets, form prcng polces, and attract nvestors' funds whch wll make the task of assessng the compettveness of educatonal servces relevant n the theoretcal and practcal aspects. The avalablty of the evaluaton methodology, on the bass of whch s possble not

2 only to determne the compettve poston of the unversty on the market, but also to predct the consequences of varous manageral decsons and t wll help to develop an effectve strategy to ncrease the unversty's compettveness. There are a large number of researches, whch are devoted to the problems of assessng the compettveness of hgher educaton nsttutons. The level of compettveness of an educatonal nsttuton n the market of educatonal servces can be determned through varous methods of expert assessments. The procedure for carryng out expert research by the method of pared comparsons (Shannon, 975) s carred out by a par comparson of predetermned parameters of unversty compettveness, wth each subsequent evaluaton not related to the prevous one. The processng of all pared estmates form a matrx of pared preferences gves numercal values of the sgnfcance of compettveness parameters for a partcular nsttuton. The method of ratng evaluatons uses an ntegral ndcator of the success of the nsttuton. Ths s a ratng whch s determned n accordance wth dfferent methodologes. The unverstes are compared by ndcators that characterze ther actvtes, the qualty of educatonal servces whch provdes hgher educaton nsttutons n the conduct of the ratng assessment. The methodology of ntegral assessment of compettveness was proposed by Ryzhkov (27). It s based on the theory of fuzzy sets and allows buldng ratngs of unverstes wth an addtonal classfcaton of levels of compettveness. Calculaton of the ntegral ndcator of the unversty's compettveness, defned as the arthmetc average of the ndexes of the modules, whch have a dfferent degree of sgnfcance, s the result of the score-ratng complex estmate proposed by Koshkn (26). The authors of many publcatons defne the compettveness of educatonal servces as a complex structure consstng of many factors. The methodology for assessng the compettveness of educatonal servces n terms of ndcators, whch are grouped as follows: techncal, normatve, economc are proposed by Grn'kevch (23). A smlar approach s used by the author by Fedulov (25), hghlghtng three groups of factors: consumer ndcators, whch reflect the fundamental possblty of realzng servces n a partcular market; economc (the prce of educatonal servces); organzatonal (the credblty of the unversty, mage, ratng, accessblty of educatonal servces). The qualty of the educatonal process s dentfed as a fundamental factor from the whole set of characterzng parameters n a number of works (Lyubavtsev, 27; Tmofeyev, 26; Torgerson, 958). Ths s a mult-component ndcator, whch s necessarly nfluenced by such parameters as the avalablty of hghly qualfed teachers, the average score of academc achevement, the rato of the number of teachers and students. ALGORITHM FOR DETERMINING COMPETITIVENESS The task of determnng the value of the compettveness ndex s one of the most dffcult not only as the defnton of attrbutes, but also the choce of methods for obtanng ther quanttatve assessment, whch are shown by the analyss of scentfc publcatons. A model that reflects the nfluence of factors of compettveness of the unversty on each other s necessary to solve ths problem, as well as forecastng tasks. Thus, the purpose of the study s to ncrease the effectveness of assessng the compettve poston of the unversty n the market of educatonal servces, based on the development and applcaton of the model of mutual nfluence of factors of the unversty's compettveness

3 The analyss of scentfc research devoted to the assessment of the compettveness of unverstes has shown that dfferent methods and tools can be used to determne the compettve poston of the nsttuton. The man stages of the algorthm for determnng compettveness: Defnng the purpose of the assessment; Defnton of the types of actvty consdered n the analyss; Choce of reference database; Defnton of characterstcs that wll change; Assessment of selected characterstcs; Calculaton of the generalzed, ntegral ndcator of compettveness; Concluson about compettveness. The effectveness of the assessment of the compettve poston of the organzaton depends on the choce of characterstcs, the determnaton of ther relatve mportance (weght n the total assessment, %) and the evaluaton of these characterstcs for the unversty and ts man compettors, as can be seen from the algorthm (Warren, 22). The assessment of compettveness can be conducted on the followng parameters: market share, qualty of products (servces); prce of products (cost of servces); use of new technologes; prme cost of products (servces); the qualty of the management team, new products (servces), the rato of world and domestc prces; reputaton of the organzaton (ratng) and others. The man ndcator of compettveness s the share of the organzaton n the market s the hgher the markets share of a hgher educaton nsttuton, the hgher ts compettveness. The market share and the growth rate of the market testfy to the effectveness of the unversty actvty, whch manfests tself n the demand for educatonal servces that t provdes. It can be concluded that the enterprse n the market s compettve wth an ncreasng or unchanged share of the organzaton. SIMULATION MODEL Smulaton model that combnes the prncples of system dynamcs (Rznyk, 23) and cogntve modelng (Vertl, 22) s proposed to be used to analyze the mutual nfluence of factors of the unversty's compettveness. The choce of development methodologes s the apparatus of system dynamcs. It s also determned by an effectve tool for modelng dynamc managed systems wth a hgh level of abstracton and a multtude of feedbacks. The cogntve approach makes t possble to synchronze changes n parameter values and analyze the nfluence of model parameters on each other. Any Logc system, whch combnes the possbltes of creatng hybrd models based on models of system dynamcs, dscrete-event models and the agent approach (Baryshev, 25) was chosen for the development of the model. Consder the process of assessng the compettveness of the unversty as a dynamc system wth a dscrete mappng. The mathematcal model of such system s determned by the state vector of ths system x ( x, x, x2,, xn), where x x( t ) the state of the system at tme t, t dscrete tme, =,,2,, n; and also by the evoluton operator, whch determnes the correspondence between the state of the system x and ts state x. x the pont of the phase space, the coordnates of whch are the values of the system parameters at the tme t. Intal state

4 of the system x x ). The change n the state of the system s descrbed by the relaton: ( t x ( x ). The state of the system under nvestgaton can be descrbed usng classcal approaches of system theory, n partcular, cogntve modelng (Fgure ). The cogntve model of a complex, weakly structured system s represented by a functonal graph. The man factors (concepts) wll serve as the vertces of the graph and the lnks between the mutual nfluences of the factors on each other are arcs. Fgure COGNITIVE MAP FOR ASSESSING THE COMPETITIVENESS OF THE INSTITUTION The method s used to develop the scales of characterstcs proposed by Ryzhkov (27). It s based on specfyng reference ponts (maxmum and mnmum value of a characterstc) and obtanng new values of the scale by dvdng the segment n half wth the nterpretaton of the mdpont n the doman. We obtan a lnearly ordered scale of the set of lngustc values as a result of ths procedure. The elements of the set are mapped onto a segment of the numercal axs (-). Pont and ts vcnty, whch has the same lngustc nterpretaton s defned for each lngustc value on the segment of the numercal axs (-). It s possble to solve two types of tasks, based on the cogntve model: Drect (determnaton of the degree of change of the resultng factors wth a change n the ntal factors); Inverse (determnaton of the necessary value of the change n the ntal factors for obtanng the target value of the resultng factors). Analyss of the cogntve map allows dentfyng the structure of the problem (system), fndng the most sgnfcant factors affectng t, evaluatng the mpact of factors (ndcators) on each other. Crcle of problems to be solved ncludes an assessment of the attanablty of goals, the development of scenaros and management strateges and the search for management decsons (Rchard Koch, 27), on condton allocaton of target and nput concepts, whch can be nfluenced n the cogntve map. We use the Pareto prncple (Axelrod, 976) to determne the parameters of the smulated system. It states that only a small part s sgnfcant from the set of factors nfluencng

5 the result. The determnng factor of the compettve poston of the unversty s the market share and, as a consequence, the number of potental students, we wll outlne the key ndcators that have the greatest nfluence on ths parameter: the cost of educaton, the qualty, the ratng of the unversty. The qualty of the provded servces s determned by the values of many factors, the most mportant of whch are: the qualfcatons of teachers, the ratng of teachers and the number of students n the group. The ratng of teachers s a parameter that depends on the average value of students' progress and the average grade of teachers, whch s obtaned from the results of questonng of students (Vertl, 22). Rapd assessment of compettveness on the bass of whch s possble not only to evaluate the actvty of the unversty, but also to develop specfc measures to ncrease ts compettveness, s possble on the bass of usng varous approaches to smulaton modelng. A model that wll reflect the nteracton of factors n the dynamcs (Forrester, 969) wll be necessary for the development of management strateges and the search for manageral decsons. We can sngle out the followng condtons for the use of smulaton models (Danlova, 23): In cases where there s no complete mathematcal formulaton of ths problem; Analytcal methods are avalable, but they are very complex and tme-consumng and smulaton modellng provdes an easer way to solve; Analytcal solutons are avalable, but ther mplementaton s mpossble due to nsuffcent tranng of exstng staff; It s necessary to montor the progress of the process for a certan perod, n addton to evaluatng certan parameters; Smulaton modellng can be the only possble because of the dffculty of settng up an experment and observng phenomena n real condtons; It may be necessary to compress the tme scale (both deceleraton and acceleraton). The smulaton model of the mutual nfluence of the compettveness factors of the unversty (Fgure 2) s a dynamc system that s determned by a set of parameters and a set of drect and nverse relatons between them. Fgure 2 THE MODEL OF THE INFLUENCE OF FACTORS OF COMPETITIVENESS ON THE MARKET SHARE OF THE UNIVERSITY

6 Let s enter the followng notaton for varables of the model of mutual nfluence of factors of compettveness: MCP (Сapacty_of_the_market_segment) The total number of potental students n the drecton n whch the unversty prepares specalsts, people/year; CP (Market_share) The share of the unversty n the total number of students n the drecton n whch the nsttuton prepares specalsts at the tme, t (the normalzed value s estmated n the range (-)), %; PS (Number_of_potental_students) Number of potental unversty students, persons; CE (Cost_of_educaton) The cost of tranng per unt of tme, RMB/year; Q (Qualty) Qualty of tranng (normalzed value, estmated n the range (-)), ponts; (Unversty_ratng) - The ratng of the unversty n ths segment of the market (normalzed value, estmated n the range (-)), ponts; RL (Ratng_of_teachers) - the average ratng of the teachng staff (the normalzed value s estmated n the range (-)), ponts; QL (Qualfcatons_of_teachers) - the level of qualfcaton of the teachng staff (standardzed value, estmated n the range (-)), ponts; NS (Number_of_the_group) - number of students n a group of one teacher, persons; (Students_academc_performance) - average score of students' progress (normalzed value, estmated n the range (-)), ponts; RLS (Evaluaton_of_teachers) - the average grade of the teachng staff, obtaned as a result of the questonng of students (the normalzed value s estmated n the range (-)), ponts. The values of the nput varables CE,, QL, NS,, RLS can be changed by specfyng, usng the slders, the values of the correspondng target parameters CE_, _, QL_, NS_, _, RLS_ (Fgure 3) durng the scenaro analyss experments wth the smulaton model. Changng parameters CE_, _, QL_, NS_, _, RLS_ n the mode of smple experment, you can analyze the consequences of possble desgn solutons. The state of the smulated system at tme t s determned by the ntal values of the set of parameters: MCP, CP, PS, Q, RL, CE,, x QL, NS,, RLS, CE _, _, QL_, NS _, _, RLS _ Fgure 3 THE CONTROL PANEL FOR THE VALUES OF THE VECTOR ELEMENTS OF THE INPUT PARAMETERS OF THE MODEL

7 The ntal values of the parameters that are specfed n the model determne the market share and the number of potental students of the Admral Makarov Natonal Unversty of Shpbuldng n Zhenjang (Chna) (Table ): Table REPRESENT MARKET SHARE AND NUMBER OF STUDENTS OF ADMIRAL MAKAROV NATIONAL UNIVERSITY MCP = persons CP =. %, PS = persons Q =.5 pont RL =.3 pont NS =5 persons RLS =.2 pont The mathematcal model s a system of equatons: CE =2,5 RMB/year =.6 pont QL =.5 pont =.2 pont CE CE QL QL_ NS NS RLS RLS _ CP ( CE, CE, Q, Q,, ) CP Q 3( QL, QL, RL, RL, NS, NS ) Q RL 4(,, RLS, RLS ) RL PS 2( CP, MCP ) { A collecton of mappngs,,, } s an evoluton operator that determnes the correspondence between the state of the system x and ts state x. CE CE QL QL_ NS NS RLS RLS _ CP CE CE Q Q ( k k2 k3 ) CP CE Q Q NS NS QL QL RL RL ( k4 k5 k6 ) Q NS QL RL RL RLS RLS ( k7 k8 ) RL RLS PS CP MCP The values of the coeffcents k, k 2, k 3, k 4, k 5, k 6, k 7, k 8 characterze the force of the nfluence of the causal factor on the factor of the effect [2] and are determned by the methods of expert assessments n the system of equatons (2)

8 CONCLUSION The man ndcators whch nfluence the evaluaton of the compettve poston of the unversty n the market of educatonal servces were dentfed. The nterrelatons between the factors are determned by consderng the cause-effect chans (a cogntve map s constructed n the form of an orented graph).was developed a system-dynamc smulaton model that makes possble to do a forecast concernng the number of potental students and the market share at the stage of desgnng educatonal servces. The applcaton of the proposed approach and the developed model makes t possble to mprove the effectveness of the assessment of the compettve poston of the unversty n the market of educatonal servces on the bass of an analyss of the mpact of compettveness ndcators on each other. Further research should be drected to conductng experments wth the proposed smulaton model to analyze the consequences of management decsons. REFERENCES Danlova, T.V. (26). Methodology for assessng the compettveness of unverstes. In Proceedngs of the Scentfc and Practcal Conference, Qualty and compettveness n the 2st century, 59. Shannon, R.E. (975). Systems smulaton: The art and scence, 368. Ryzhkov, A.S. (27). Assessment of the qualty of teachng as an element of the management of a jont nternatonal educatonal project. Scence Rse, Koshkn, K.V., Vozny, A.M & Knyrk, N.R. (26). Decson-makng n the mplementaton of IT projects based on smulaton, Vsn. NTU KHPI, Ser. Strategy management, management of portfolos, programs and projects, 2-6. Grn'kevch, O.S. & Sorochak, O.Z. (23). Applcaton of the theory of fuzzy sets n the ratng assessment of the compettveness of unverstes. Fedulov, A.S. (25). Fuzzy relatonal cogntve maps. Theory and Control Systems, Lyubavtsev, A.V. (27). Problems of assessng the compettveness of educatonal servces of hgher educaton, Pedagogcal scences. Tmofeyev, V.V., Renkas, N.N & Sharonn, Y.U.V. (26). Ratng of Russan colleges: From the methodology of defnton to practce. Secondary Vocatonal Educaton. Torgerson, W.S. (958). Theory and methods of scalng. 46. Warren, K. (22). Compettve strategy dynamcs Rznyk, N.M. & Bachynsˈka, O.M. (23). Economy and regon. 4(4), Vertl, V.V., Germadze, G.Y.E. & Zuyev, V.M. (22). Requrements for the preparaton of graduates as a factor of compettveness of the system of secondary vocatonal educaton. 4(26). Baryshev, A.F. (25). Marketng. 3 rd edn, 28. Ryzhkov, A.S. (27). Management Educaton Scence & Socety Technology, 5(2), Koch, R. (27). The 8/2 prncple: The secret of achevng more wth less. Ncholas Brealey, 32. Axelrod, R. (976). The structure of decson: Cogntve maps of poltcal eltes Vertl, V.V., Germadze, G.Y.E. & Zuyev, V.M. (22). Requrements for the preparaton of graduates as a factor of compettveness of the system of secondary vocatonal educaton. 4(26). Forrester, J. (969). Urban dynamcs Danlova, S.V. (23). Methodologcal assessments of compettveness, Creatve Economy, 4(76),