TVET today, 4th Industrial Revolution tomorrow Possible implications for TVET and the labour market in Viet Nam

Transcription

1 Implemented by TVET today, 4th Industrial Revolution tomorrow Possible implications for TVET and the labour market in Viet Nam Dr. Horst Sommer and Lisa-Marie Kreibich Programme Reform of TVET in Viet Nam Hanoi, 14. September 2017

2 Implemented by Outline 1. Introduction to the 4 th Industrial Revolution 2. Definition of Industry 4.0 and Initiatives 3. General Assumptions, Implications and Predicted Impacts for the Labour Market 4. Tendencies of Industry 4.0 as Relevant Drivers for Adjustments in TVET 5. Example of Change Processes in Specific Sectors: Manufacturing and Electrical Industry 6. Challenges for TVET in Viet Nam 9/18/ Portfolio Presentation GIZ in Viet Nam

3 1. Introduction to the 4 th Industrial Revolution Digitalisation and Industry 4.0 are key features of a fourth industrial revolution: The four industrial revolutions (graphic by [Kagermann et al., 2013], translated from German)

4 1. Introduction to the 4 th Industrial Revolution Digitalisation and Industry 4.0 are key features of the 4th industrial revolution:

5 1. Introduction to the 4 th Industrial Revolution Digitalisation: Collection and processing of digital data plays a crucial role in Industry 4.0 production and business cycles:

6 2. What is Industry 4.0? Refers to a new stage of technological change ( 4 th Industrial Revolution ) Aims are: to develop highly automated, interconnected and smart production processes to include and optimize all phases of a product life cycle digitally: Idea, development, production, use, maintenance and recycling Based on digitalisation, robotics, sensor technology, cyber-physical systems and Big Data What is new about it? the possibilities that digital interconnection offers (e.g. manmachine interaction) not only the large-scale use of computers and ICT in the production process

7 3. General Assumptions and Implications Currently: More questions than answers Central question: How will the man-machine interaction look like? Will technology guide the human ( autonomous automation ) or will the human guide the technology ( hybrid collaboration )? The higher the potential automation of tasks performed within a profession, the higher the risk for job losses!? The lower the potential automation of tasks performed within a profession, the lower the risk of job losses!? In either case: The employee needs to have the needed or be ready to acquire the needed competencies and skills to ensure employability

8 3. General Assumptions and Implications

9 3. General Assumptions and Implications Digitalization / Industry 4.0 : What about jobs, employment if the robots take over? From a contradictionary debate: Pessimistic Scenarios Frey / Osborne forecast: around 47 % of total US employment is at risk because of Industry 4.0 (THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO COMPUTERISATION? / 2013) World Economic Forum: Current estimates of global job losses due to digitalization range from 2 million to as high as 2 billion by There is great uncertainty about the overall impact of digital transformation on jobs, with concerns also about its impact on wages and working conditions (World Economic Forum White Paper Digital Transformation of Industries: Societal Implications / 2016) Optimistic Scenarios Boston Consulting Group: Industry 4.0 will promote job growth (but stakeholders must help the workforce adapt) ( VDMA (Germany): Replacement of workers can t be observed - even there is third highest density of robots worldwide in Germany but new kinds of working organization with new and higher challenges of man-robot-collaboration come up with increasing numbers of jobs but in new formed qualification requirements (VDMA Nachrichten )

10 3. Predicted Impacts on the Labour Market in Viet Nam ILO: ASEAN in transformation: the future of jobs at risk of automation (2016) Around 56% of all employment in ASEAN-5 (Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam) has a high risk of automation Viet Nam has the highest probability of automation (70%) Also due to the labour market structures: in Viet Nam the share of lowskilled elementary occupations in total employment is highest higher risk of automation ILO conculsion: a higher skill level is necessary

11 4. Tendencies in technology, business and work processes of Industry 4.0 as relevant drivers for adjustments in TVET Main specific technological Industry 4.0 related tendencies as drivers for adjustments in TVET: Cyber-Physical-Systems / Internet of Things Additive processes / 3D printing Robotics Web 2.0 / mobile devices Wearables / augmentation Main cross-cutting technological Industry 4.0 related tendencies as drivers for adjustments in TVET: Data protection & security / privacy Big data Interdisciplinary cooperation Innovation / flexibility / mobility

12 4. Tendencies in technology, business and work processes of Industry 4.0 as relevant drivers for adjustments in TVET!

13 5. Change processes in selected specific sectors and related requirements for TVET adjustments Manufacturing / Metal and Electrical Industry Now: a gradually & continuing diffusion of Industry 4.0 in production & work processes (depending from type / size of companies), combined with stronger automation embedded in cyber-physical systems technical networking use of applications of decentral artificial intelligence digitalisation of processes and workflows importance of context related data, their collection, processing and interpretation combination / fusion of informational and production processes Source: Spöttl (2016) bayme vbm studie Industrie 4.0 Auswirkungen auf Aus- und Weiterbildung in der M+E Industrie

14 5. Change processes in selected specific sectors and related requirements for TVET adjustments Manufacturing / Metal and Electrical Industry Now: Combined with trends related to some types / clusters of companies: 1. Companies without Industry 4.0 integration: no changes in direct production; however effects in indirect production / work / business processes small influence requirements on adjustments of qualifications of employees 2. Companies with low Industry 4.0 integration: slight increase of implementation of elements as described above in production / work / business processes visible requirements on related adjustments of qualifications of employees 3. Companies with high Industry 4.0 integration: partial up to comprehensive implementation of elements as described above in production / work / business processes strong requirements on related adjustments of qualifications of employees Source: Spöttl (2016) bayme vbm studie Industrie 4.0 Auswirkungen auf Aus- und Weiterbildung in der M+E Industrie

15 5. Change processes in selected specific sectors and related requirements for TVET adjustments Manufacturing / Metal and Electrical Industry Categories of occupations related to the relevance to Industry 4.0 (German opinion): Category 1 (with close proximity to Industry 4.0) Electronics technician for automation technology Mechtronics Industrial mechanic Specialist for Informatics Category 2 (with close to medium proximity to Industry 4.0) Electronics in operation and maintenance Machining mechanics Electronics for systems and devices Electronics for IT systems Category 3 (with medium to low proximity to Industry 4.0) Production technologist System mechanics Tool mechanics Source: Spöttl (2016) bayme vbm studie Industrie 4.0 Auswirkungen auf Aus- und Weiterbildung in der M+E Industrie

16 5. Change processes in selected specific sectors and related requirements for TVET adjustments Recommendations on adjustments of qualifications of occupations related to their relevance to Industry 4.0: Category 1 (close proximity to Industry 4.0) & Categorie 2 (close to medium proximity to Industry 4.0) Revision of occupational / competence profiles on short notice Adjustment of profiles against requirements of Industry 4.0 by derivation of additional competences from demands of industry Formulation of modifications / supplements in occupational / skills standards Elaboration of related curricula (to be decided to be implemented in intitial or further training) Setting up schemes for pre- and in-service training for TVET teachers and in-company trainers as well as modes of school- and company based training Elaboration / development of related teaching and learning media and environments Category 3 (medium to low proximity to Industry 4.0) Revision of occupational / competence profiles in a mid-term perspective with view, that they will be affected within around next 2 years Follow same / comparable process as above Category 4 (low proximity to Industry 4.0) Investigation and derivation of demands of related competences in terms of basic competences / generic qualifcations in occupational profiles Source: Spöttl (2016) bayme vbm studie Industrie 4.0 Auswirkungen auf Aus- und Weiterbildung in der M+E Industrie

17 5. Change processes in selected specific sectors and related requirements for TVET adjustments Qualifications and skills of workers in a factory of the future ( VDMI /ASME)

18 5. Summary of Trends and Challenges (Source: BiBB; Germany) Generally increasing importance of IT knowledge Control and problem-solving competence in demand In automated processes, vocational learning needs to be structured differently (errors/stoppages pose too much of risk) More of the learning must be organised in separate locations, e.g. in virtual learning environments Corresponding learning opportunities need to be kept in mind at an early stage when production facilities are being designed Companies are cooperating more with partners in higher education sector to train next generation of skilled workers But must not leave this field to higher education alone, particularly as no uniform standards exist yet TVET 4.0 must develop its own concepts including new partnerships between learning venues and hybrid qualification routes in collaboration with higher education, e.g. in context of advanced vocational qualifications

19 Implemented by Thank you for your attention. More Information: elibrary: 9/18/ Portfolio Presentation GIZ in Viet Nam Seite 19