Methodologies: Sources of information on labour

Transcription

1 Methodologies: Sources of information on labour statistics (focus on the economically active population) Monica D. Castillo Chief, Decent Work Data Production Unit ILO Department of Statistics Geneva National Labour Market Information Training Programme Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago 31 October 11 November 2011 ILO Department of Statistics

2 Contents Overview of key official sources of labour statistics: Advantages, disadvantages of each type Integrated labour statistics system Integrated national statistics system National programme for statistics of the economically active population (EAP) Lb Labour force survey: key instrument t for measuring the EAP ILO Department of Statistics 2

3 Official sources of labour statistics Population and housing census Household surveys (LFS, HIES, ) Economic census Establishment surveys (current and long-term needs) Administrative i i records Agricultural census and surveys ILO Department of Statistics 3

4 Official sources: Differences in coverage Differences in geographic, worker/enterprise, job coverage P&H Census Household Surveys Economic Census Universal coverage of civilian population living in households Sample of the population living in households; coverage depends on objective & sample design Census of establishments, coverage depends on objective and frame Establishment Surveys Sample of establishments, coverage depends on objective, frame, sample design Administrative i ti Sources Defined by legal l or administrative i ti obligations: Registered/contributing population ILO Department of Statistics 4

5 P&H Census Official sources: Differences in periodicity Every 5-10 years Recommended every 10 years Household Surveys Economic Census Usually more frequent than censuses Depending on priorities and resources: For LFS could be continuous, monthly, quarterly, or annually Every 5-10 years Recommended d every 5-10 years Establishment Surveys Administrative Sources Monthly, quarterly, annually Recommendation depends on purpose/resources: monthly or quarterly for time series; annually or 3-5 years structural data Continuous -updating as per administrative procedures ILO Department of Statistics 5

6 Population census Population census: is the official procedure of systematically acquiring and recording information about the members of the population, (normally) at regular, long-term intervals (e.g. every 10 years) Importance of collecting data on the economic characteristics of the population through a population census: In some countries is the only source Produces broad-based estimates on selected economic characteristics Provides benchmark data on economic characteristics to which statistics from other sources can be related Complements the other sources of data on economic characteristics Department of Statistics 6

7 Population and housing census: Strengths and Limitations Advantages as data source for economic characteristics: National scope and consistent geography Inclusion of all persons Permits extensive and detailed cross-tabulations Produce summary statistics for all civil or administrative divisions Generate finely detailed statistics for small geographical areas, small population groups, or finely classified groups of industries or occupations Permits cross-tabulation of economic characteristics with other demographic and socio-economic variables Limitations as data source for economic characteristics: Conducted d only once every 10 years High cost and sometimes heavy reporting burden Compete with demands for coverage of other topics; placement of questions on the questionnaire. Some of the concepts related to economic characteristics are very complex for censuses to handle Accurate information on certain characteristics ti not known to proxy respondent (true also of HH surveys) ILO Department of Statistics 7

8 Labour Force Surveys Labour Force Surveys: Surveys carried out using a sample of households Constitute the main data collection instrument for statistics on employment and unemployment worldwide Permit the collection of coherent information on the total t working age population and its components, in particular the economically active population. Concept of employment in household surveys refers to persons employed rather than to jobs, since a person may have several jobs and work in different establishments Large range of topics can be included. Examples: Employment, unemployment, not in lb labour force Time-related underemployment Informal employment Occupational segregation by sex (also captured by establishment surveys) Youth not in education and not in employment, years Hours actually worked ILO Department of Statistics 8

9 Advantages: Labour force surveys: Strengths and Limitations Flexible, can cover a large set of labour topics Allows personal interviews Detailed questioning permits precise measurement of concepts If frequent, can provide data to monitor short-term labour force trends Provides data on persons & their households Can be designed to provide both stock and flows estimates Covers all workers, including all self-employed Allows disaggregations by demographic factors: by sex, age group, ethnic group Limitations: Sampling often prevents reliable estimates for small groups/areas Sometimes have limited geographic coverage (cost considerations) Sampling and non-sampling errors Reliability of estimates regarding data by industry or occupation; and sensitive information (e.g., employment-related income) Still: is considered the best source for labour force statistics ILO Department of Statistics 9

10 Establishment surveys Employment-based establishment surveys: Surveys based on a sample of establishments that seek to obtain statistical information on employment, hours and earnings. They may have a short-term (current statistics, trends) or longer term purpose (structural statistics, distribution of earnings, etc) Employment measures the number of jobs held by persons working in establishments, not the number of employed persons Generally cover employees (i.e., not all workers are covered) Examples of indicators and topics: Average hourly earnings in selected occupations Manufacturing wage index Employment by branch of economic activity* Wage/earnings inequality* Labour cost Hours paid for *Can also be covered in a LF survey ILO Department of Statistics 10

11 Advantages and Limitations of Employment- Related Establishment Surveys Advantages: Permit the collection of coherent data on employees who work in sampled establishments Often best source of periodic data on wages & hours statistics Good coverage of medium sized and larger establishments Estimates disaggregated by economic activity are generally considered more reliable than those from household surveys Limitations: May exclude small establishments from sampling frame Difficult to obtain reliable estimates for small industries May not allow data disaggregation by demographic variables (age, sex, ethnic group, etc.) Sampling and non-sampling errors Excludes self-employed workers not covered in sampled establishments In developing countries can represent a high percentage of total employment Generally exclude the agricultural sector A sector with a high concentration of employment in most developing countries ILO Department of Statistics 11

12 Administrative Records Administrative Records: Systematic registers related to administrative procedures maintained by institutions of the public sector Used to carry out the administration or operationalization of Government programmes Serve to control, verify and monitor compliance with legal and / or administrative obligations Examples of topics and indicators: Minimum wage Occupational injury rate, fatal and non-fatal Union density rate * Number of collective bargaining g conventions and worker coverage Share of population covered by (basic) health care provision* *Topics that may also be included in household surveys ILO Department of Statistics 12

13 Advantages: Advantages and limitations of Administrative Records A very low-cost source of data Allow a broad disaggregation of information and coverage of different topics Allow for more frequent production and dissemination of data (continuous collection) Not subject to sampling errors that are inherent to surveys In some cases can be used to benchmark sample survey estimates Good source of information on small groups Population/business registers serve as sampling frames for sample surveys Limitations: Generally are structured for administrative purposes rather than statistical purposes Classification systems can differ from those used in statistical surveys Availability of data (access) Time and geographic coverage of the data Coverage of target population defined by legal/administrative procedures Quality may depend on incentives and penalties for registration Concepts & definitions classifications often based on legislation, not always consistent with statistical standards ILO Department of Statistics 13

14 Integrated labour statistics system No single data source can meet all needs All sources contribute to an overall system of national labour statistics Need to recognize relative strengths, limitations & complementarities Census data for benchmarking & to develop sample frames for surveys Population/business registers to develop sample frames for surveys Survey data for inter-censal estimates t & to monitor short term trends Administrative data to complement or benchmark certain survey data Survey data to gauge under-registration in administrative sources Census and administrative data for small areas/groups ILO Department of Statistics 14

15 Integrated labour statistics system Requires coherence between sources Concepts Definitions Classifications Labour statistics Reference periods Methods framework & standards ILO Department of Statistics 15

16 Example: Labour Statistics System, Statistics Canada Standards & Methods Sources Statistics Users ILO Department of Statistics 16 16

17 Integrated national statistics system Labour statistics are a part of national statistical systems Labour statistics concepts & methods need to be related & consistent with other official statistics Education statistics National accounts Demographic statistics Industrial production statistics Agricultural statistics Health statistics Labour statistics to be included as part of the overall national statistical plan & data collection programme ILO Department of Statistics 17

18 Example: South Africa ILO Department of Statistics 18

19 National programme for statistics of the Economically Active Population (EAP) Minimum needs defined in 13 th ICLS Resolution I, paragraph 2: Short-term term needs: Statistics of the EAP and its components to monitor trends and seasonal variations At minimum once a year (preferably at shorter intervals) Long-term needs: Comprehensive data on the EAP for structural in depth-analysis and as benchmark data In-depth statistics on relation between employment, income & other social and economic characteristics Data on particular topics (children, youth, women) At minimum every 10 years ILO Department of Statistics 19

20 LFS programme for current and long-term data needs For long-term decent work (LFS based) statistics programme: Occasional survey (e.g. one-off multipurpose survey) Regular survey (e.g. inter-censal stand-alone or multipurpose survey) For current decent work (LFS based) statistics programme: Annual survey with periodic data collection for annual point-estimates Depending on resources & capacity Continuous survey system with sample rotation for monthly/ quarterly/ annual average estimates ILO Department of Statistics 20

21 Some strategies to improve the LF statistics programme Objective: To build a regular LFS programme to provide for current & long-term LF data needs Strategy: Progressive development & implementation ILO Department of Statistics 21

22 Annual LFS with continuous data collection Advantages: Seasonal variations i over time are captured and period effects eliminated i Estimates reflect the average situation during a month, quarter or year Flexibility in periodicity of data dissemination (depending on sample design) No longer need to use concepts based on long reference periods (e.g. usual activity, annual income), which are prone to recall errors Improved timeliness in dissemination due to continuous data entry & processing Smaller dedicated field interviewers teams = better quality & lower staff turnover ILO Department of Statistics 22

23 Considerations: Considerations in developing a LFS Topics that need to be covered; length of questionnaire & special modules Geographic coverage: total national best Survey periodicity Capacity of the institution conducting the survey (survey design; sampling; interviewer training & data collection; processing, coding and validation; estimation; and publication) Cost-sample size tradeoff (does funding match the desired degree of reliability for key indicator estimates?) Preserving public goodwill (reporting burden) Level of data quality possible ILO Department of Statistics 23

24 Main objective To facilitate the collection of the desired information with Accuracy Efficiency Simplicity All elements in a questionnaire should contribute to ensure survey quality Relevant Contribute to reduce measurement errors ILO Department of Statistics 24

25 Labour force survey relevance & topic coverage Current activity status (in the reference week) of the Working Age Population ILO Department of Statistics 25

26 Basic questionnaire structure to apply labour force framework priority rules Persons above minimum age to define the working age population Current employment Any work (paid/unpaid) for at least 1+ hr in reference period? Temporary absence from work? Employed Characteristics Main Job Job search/availability Job search in recent past (eg. last 4 weeks)? Active search method in recent past (eg. last 4 weeks)? Availability for work in reference period? Unemployed Reasons did not search/was not available Not in labour force -discouraged, 26 ILO Department of Statistics 26

27 Translation of standards into questions for use in household surveys Measurement of employment & conditions of employment of persons depends on identification of persons as employed in the first place Questions should be appropriate for persons in paid-employment & in self-employment Useful to include examples in the questionnaire of most common types of jobs/activities likely to go unreported casual work, unpaid work, production for own-consumption Important to probe! Degree of probing needed depends on country circumstances ILO Department of Statistics 27

28 Types of measurement errors Questionnaire Specification problems (inappropriate measurement of desired concept) Design effects question wording, length, order, questionnaire layout Interviewer Variability in conduct of interview, errors of interpretation/recording, deliberate manipulation p Misunderstanding, memory recall problems, omissions, concerns of social desirability Respondent ILO Department of Statistics 28

29 Model sequence of LFS questions to identify persons employed Probes, as per country circumstances: -List of activities iti to be included d as work -Engagement in production for ownhousehold consumption -Temporary absences from work Essential question elements: -Reference period -Reference to work for at least 1 hour -Suitability for paid- & self-employmentemployment -Explicit mention of paid & unpaid work 29 ILO Department of Statistics

30 Model sequence of LFS questions to identify unemployed persons & persons not in the LF Essential question elements: -Reference periods for job search and availability for work -Suitable methods of job search for paid- & self-employment -Identification of discouragement in reasons for not seeking work ILO Department of Statistics 30 ILO Department of Statistics

31 Conclusions Sources of labour statistics include: population and housing census, household surveys (e.g. LFS, HIES), economic censuses, establishment surveys, administrative records, and agricultural censuses and surveys No single data source can meet all needs All sources contribute to an overall system of national labour statistics Need to recognize relative strengths, limitations and complementarities between sources Labour statistics concepts and methods should be related and consistent with other official statistics in an Integrated national statistics system National programme for statistics of the economically active population (EAP) should aim to develop statistics to monitor short-term term trends and for in depth-analysis Labour force surveys should seek to facilitate the collection of the desired information with accuracy, efficiency and simplicity ILO Department of Statistics 31

32 References Benes, Elisa. Power Point presentation, Introduction to labour and labour force statistics. ILO- ITC-Turin Training Course: LMI2: Designing labour force surveys and LF modules for household surveys to monitor progress towards decent work, ILO Department of Statistics, Geneva. April 2011 Benes, Elisa. Power Point presentation, Putting it all together ILO-ITC-Turin Training Course: LMI2: Designing labour force surveys and LF modules for household surveys to monitor progress towards decent work, ILO Department of Statistics, Geneva. April 2011 Castillo, Monica. Power Point presentation, Data Sources for Collecting Decent Work Information, World Bank / AusAid / ILO Regional Labor Markets Analysis s Workshop op Bangkok, Thailand. a April 2011 Hussmanns, Ralf, Farhad Mehran and Vijay Verma. Surveys of economically active population, employment, unemployment and underemployment: An ILO manual on concepts and methods. Geneva: International Labour Office Resolution concerning statistics of the economically active population, employment, unemployment and underemployment, adopted by the Thirteenth International Conference of Labour Statisticians (October 1982); web link: ILO Department of Statistics 32

33 Questions Are labour statistics concepts and methods, classifications, etc. consistent across national labour statistics sources? Are they consistent with other official statistics in Trinidad and Tobago? Does a national statistics programme coordination mechanism exist? If so, how well does it function and what are the obstacles to improving it? What are the current statistical needs of data users in Trinidad and Tobago regarding glabour force/employment statistics? What are the resources available? What are the existing statistical sources for labour force/employment statistics? Establishment surveys Economic census Household survey Administrative records Agricultural census/survey Do data sources include instruments for short-term and long-term needs? Are the existing statistical sources meeting the needs of data users? Why? ILO Department of Statistics 33