Tasmanian Economic Update. David Rumbens Partner, Deloitte Access Economics 27 th May 2016

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1 Tasmanian Economic Update David Rumbens Partner, Deloitte Access Economics 27 th May

2 Economic Outlook GSP Growth Major driver of current slowing growth is the decline in industrial production Private housing investment expected to steady over the next 2 years Retail turnover expected to grow at a steady pace Average annual growth over next 5 years in Tasmania, is forecast to exceed that of the past 5 years 2

3 Economic Outlook Employment Growth Employment growth in Tasmania: Peaked in late 2014 Has moderated since then Is expected to rebound in 2017 Current unemployment rate (trend figure): 6.6% Tasmania 5.8% Australia Youth unemployment rate (original figure): 16.7% Tasmania 12.9% Australia 3

4 Tasmania s jobs outlook by industry Change in employed persons from 2015 to 2020 Health Care and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services Public Administration and Safety Construction Education and Training Retail Trade Information Media and Telecommunications Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Financial and Insurance Services Arts and Recreation Services Mining Administrative and Support Services Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Other Services Wholesale Trade Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Transport, Postal and Warehousing Manufacturing Job gains Trend of the large job gains expected to continue in: Health Care & Social Assistance, and; Accommodation & Food Services Public Administration and Safety sector forecast to gain over 8,500 jobs in the next 5 years Job losses Forecast to worsen over next 5 years for: Manufacturing Transport, Postal & Warehousing Compared to the past 5 years, job losses in the Mining sector are expected to be much smaller -20,000-10, ,000 20,000 30,000 4

5 Tasmania s Tourism Industry 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% Direct contribution to GSP Direct contribution to employment Indirect contribution to GSP Indirect contribution to employment Tasmania s tourism industry provides: Almost 10% of the state s total GSP Over 16% of total employment 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% The indirect contribution of the tourism industry is greater than its contribution directly, particularly for employment 0.00% Source: Tourism Research Australia - Austrade 5

6 Place Matters for prosperity 6

7 Hobart Inputs Human Resources Natural Resources Physical Capital Boosters Social Capital Innovation & Entrepreneurship Leadership & Contribution Outputs Health & Safety Material Standards Natural Amenity Local Amenities Median Ranked Location 7

8 Launceston Inputs Human Resources Natural Resources Physical Capital Boosters Social Capital Innovation & Entrepreneurship Leadership & Contribution Outputs Health & Safety Material Standards Natural Amenity Local Amenities Median Ranked Location 8

9 Devonport Inputs Human Resources Natural Resources Physical Capital Boosters Social Capital Innovation & Entrepreneurship Leadership & Contribution Outputs Health & Safety Material Standards Natural Amenity Local Amenities Median Ranked Location 9

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