Alberta Short-Term Employment Forecast Tool

Transcription

1 Alberta Short-Term Employment Forecast Tool

2 Short-Term Employment Forecast (STEF) Tool Objectives To develop evidence-based methodology to produce a tool to support short-term planning and development of program strategies for Alberta Employment and Immigration (E&I), the Government of Alberta, and the public. To identify potential imbalances in the labour market in the near future, and allow decision makers to take action to prevent or ease those imbalances. To ensure consistency in data utilization and interpretation within E&I. hodology The STEF tool approach is evidence-based analysis that examines short-term labour market trends and conditions. The methodology is based on robust labour-market research and intelligence. This labour-market intelligence incorporates multiple quantitative and qualitative evidence from a variety of sources: economic indicators, administrative data, and insight from industry sectors. The methodology for the STEF tool includes seven variables: six quantitative and one qualitative. Existing historical data sets for six quantitative variables and data sets and information for several qualitative variables were summarized in one. The following chart shows what the methodology includes Future Employment Growth Rate Historical Employment Growth Rate Unemployment Rate Labour Market Opinions Issued Ratio of EI Regular Beneficiaries to Rate Participation Rate Quantitative variables STEF METHODOLOGY 7 Qualitative variable Industry Environmental Scan Vacancy Rates Wage & Salary Surveys JOBBANK Job Postings AINP Nominations Issued The data for 208 occupations, identified by the 4-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) codes, were collected, analyzed, calculated and summarised. 2

3 In order to incorporate these occupations in the table, which would contain logical and comparable values and would be easy to read and interpret, thresholds were determined for each variable. Each occupation was assessed against the thresholds. The findings of pilot project ( ) were shared with E&I staff, other GoA departments, industry partners and stakeholders. Their feedback was summarized, analyzed and applied to improve the methodology, data, results, and the predictive power. Results The final STEF results include the list of 208 occupations sorted by the number of variables thresholds met. Occupations that met less than 3 variables thresholds have are not commented on. These are the final results: 16 occupations met six variables, meaning there is a significant likelihood these occupations will be in demand in the next three years, 48 occupations that met only five variables, meaning there is a likelihood these occupations will be in demand, 55 occupations that meet only four variables, 47 occupations that meet only three variables, meaning it is unlikely these occupations are going to be in demand in the next three years. Attached are the STEF results for Occupations in demand should have met at least five out of seven variables thresholds. Testing of the Results To determine the predictive power of the STEF results and to ensure that this tool would be applicable, the test was conducted by comparing the results against the Unemployment Rate for 2010, for all occupations on the STEF list. The following are results of that test: Eleven occupations, out of 16 that met six out of the seven indicators, had unemployment rates below 3%, so the STEF results predictive power was at 68.8%. Twenty nine out of 48 occupations that met five out of the seven indicators, had unemployment rates below 3%, showing STEF result s predictive power at 60.4%. Twenty three occupations out of 55, that met four out of the seven indicators, had unemployment rates below 3%, so the STEF results predictive power was at 41.8%. Twenty occupations out of 47, that met three out of the seven indicators, had unemployment rates below 3%, which indicated STEF results predictive power at 42.6%. *For more information on thresholds please lfs.analyst@gov.ab.ca 3

4 0621 A211 - Retail Trade Managers % 37, A221 - Restaurant & Food Service Managers 6 14, C032 - Mechanical Engineers 6 5, C045 - Petroleum Engineers 6 13, C074 - Computer Programmers & Interactive Media Developers 6 12, C075 - Web Designers & Developers 6 1, D012 - General Practitioners & Family Physicians 6 5, D112 - Registered Nurses 6 35, G011 - Retail Trade Supervisors 6 19, G012 - Food Service Supervisors 6 6, G121 - Technical Sales Specialists, Wholesale Trade 6 14, G911 - Hairstylists & Barbers 6 10, G922 - Estheticians, Electrologists & Related Occupations 6 4, H411 - Construction Millwrights & Ind. Mechanics (except textile) 6 9, H412 - Heavy-Duty Equipment Mechanics 6 11, H422 - Motor Vehicle Body Repairers 6 5, A013 - Senior Managers-Financial, Communic. & Other Bus Ser % 3, A121 - Engineering Managers 5 2, A122 - Computer & Information Systems Managers 5 5, A141 - Facility Operation & Maintenance Managers 5 4, A371 - Construction Managers 5 9, A391 - Manufacturing Managers 5 4, B011 - Financial Auditors & Accountants 5 25, B014 - Other Financial Officers 5 9, B022 - Professional Occupations in Bus Serv. to Management 5 14, B112 - Loan Officers 5 6, B113 - Insurance Adjusters & Claims Examiners 5 2, B412 - Supervisors, Finance & Insurance Clerks 5 4, C031 - Civil Engineers 5 6, C071 - Information Systems Analysts & Consultants 5 17, C142 - Electronic Service Tech. (Household & Bus Equipment) 5 8, C143 - Industrial Instrument Technicians & Mechanics 5 3, C161 - Nondestructive Testers & Inspectors 5 2, C171 - Air Pilots, Flight Engineers & Flying Instructors 5 2, C181 - Computer and Network Operators and Web Technicians 5 4, C182 - User Support Technicians 5 4, D011 - Specialist Physicians 5 1, D031 - Pharmacists 5 1, D233 - Licensed Practical Nurses 5 7, D312 - Nurse Aides & Orderlies 5 21, E033 Ec. Dev. Officers & Marketing Researchers & Consult. 5 2, E111 - University Professors 5 5, E121 - College & Other Vocational Instructors 5 10, E211 - Paralegal & Related Occupations 5 7, F141 - Graphic Designers & Illustrating Artists 5 7, G111 - Sales Representatives, Wholesale Trade (Non-Tech.) 5 25,800 4

5 6231 G131 - Insurance Agents & Brokers 5 7, G132 - Real Estate Agents & Salespersons 5 8, G711 - Travel Counsellors 5 2, G715 - Hotel Front Desk Clerks 5 4, G814 - Babysitters, Nannies & Parents' Helpers 5 8, G931 - Light Duty Cleaners 5 21, H016 - Contractors & Supervisors, Mechanic Trades 5 9, H019 - Contractors & Supervisors, Other Construction Trades, Installers, Repairers & Servicers 5 12, H111 - Plumbers 5 8, H132 - Cement Finishers 5 2, H141 - Roofers & Shinglers 5 1, H212 - Industrial Electricians 5 4, H421 - Motor Vehicle Mechanics, Technicians & Mech Repairers 5 20, H521 - Printing Press Operators 5 2, H533 - Automotive Mechanical Installers & Servicers 5 2, H713 - Taxi & Limousine Drivers & Chauffeurs 5 6, I011 - Farmers & Farm Managers 5 33, I015 - Landscaping & Grounds Mainten. Contract & Managers 5 4, A302 - Banking, Credit & Other Investment Managers % 4, A373 - Transportation Managers 4 4, B012 - Financial & Investment Analysts 4 2, B213 - Medical Secretaries 4 2, B311 - Administrative Officers 4 28, B314 - Property Administrators 4 3, B411 - Supervisors, General Office & Admin. Support Clerks 4 3, B415 - Supervisors, Recording, Distributing & Scheduling Occup 4 7, B531 - Accounting & Related Clerks 4 19, B533 - Tellers, Financial Services 4 11, B534 - Banking, Insurance & Other Financial Clerks 4 4, B535 - Collectors 4 1, B561 - Mail, Postal & Related Clerks 4 4, B562 - Letter Carriers 4 3, C048 - Other Professional Engineers, n.e.c. 4 4, C072 - Database Analysts & Data Administrators 4 2, C141 - Electrical & Electronics Eng. Technologists & Techs 4 1, D212 - Medical Laboratory Technicians 4 4, D235 - Other Technical Occupations in Therapy & Assessment 4 1, E012 - Lawyers and Quebec Notaries 4 6, E022 - Social Workers 4 4, E024 - Ministers of Religion 4 3, E031 - Natural & Appl Science Policy Researchers, Consult & Prog Offic. 4 5, E035 Educ. Policy Researchers, Consultants & Prog. Officers 4 3, E132 - Elementary School & Kindergarten Teachers 4 15, E212 - Community & Social Service Workers 4 12, E217 - Early Childhood Educators and Assistants 4 20, F021 - Writers 4 1, F154 - Program Leaders & Instructors in Recreation & Sport 4 8,600 5

6 6216 G016 - Other Service Supervisors 4 4, G133 - Retail & Wholesale Buyers 4 5, G211 - Retail Salespersons & Sales Clerks 4 69, G311 - Cashiers 4 35, G411 - Chefs 4 4, G611 - Police Officers (except Commissioned) 4 7, G622 - Correctional Service Officers 4 2, G631 - Security Guards & Related Occupations 4 7, G712 - Pursers & Flight Attendants 4 1, G811 - Visiting Homemakers, Housekeepers & Related Occup. 4 7, G942 - Bakers 4 5, G961 - Food Counter Attendants, Kitch. Helpers & Related Occ. 4 36, H012 - Contractors & Superv., Electr. Trades & Telecomm. Occ. 4 5, H014 - Contractors & Superv, al Forming, Shaping & Erecting Trades 4 2, H022 - Supervisors, Motor Transport & Other Ground Transit Operators 4 6, H121 - Carpenters 4 17, H134 - Plasterers, Drywall Installers & Finishers, & Lathers 4 7, H145 - Floor Covering Installers 4 2, H326 - Welders & Related machine Operators 4 15, H413 - Refrigeration & Air Conditioning Mechanics 4 2, H711 - Truck Drivers 4 40, H714 - Delivery Drivers 4 5, J012 - Supervisors, Petroleum, Gas & Chemical Processing & Utilities 4 3, J026 - Supervisors, Other Mechanical & al Products Manufact. 4 3, J112 - Petroleum, Gas & Chemical Process Operators 4 7, J317 - Labourers in Food, Beverage & Tobacco Processing 4 3, A111 - Financial Managers % 4, A131 - Sales, Marketing & Advertising Managers 3 9, A321 - Managers in Health Care 3 2, A323 - School Principals & Administrators of Elem. & Sec. Education 3 3, A324 - Managers in Social, Community & Correctional Services 3 3, A372 - Residential Home Builders & Renovators 3 14, A381 - Primary Production Managers (except Agriculture) 3 4, B021 - Specialists in Human Resources 3 5, B111 - Bookkeepers 3 24, B312 - Executive Assistants 3 4, B522 - Data Entry Clerks 3 6, B532 - Payroll Clerks 3 6, B541 - Administrative Clerks 3 30, B571 - Shippers & Receivers 3 16, B575 - Dispatchers & Radio Operators 3 5, C013 - Geologists, Geochemists and Geophysicists 3 5, C033 - Electrical & Electronics Engineers 3 5, C054 - Land Surveyors 3 1, C131 - Civil Engineering Technologists & Technicians 3 3, C153 - Drafting Technologists & Technicians 3 4, D215 - Medical Radiation Technologists 3 1, D222 - Dental Hygienists & Dental Therapists 3 1,500 6

7 3234 D234 - Ambulance Attendants &Other Paramedical Occupations 3 3, D311 - Dental Assistants 3 3, D313 - Other Assisting Occupations in Support of Health Services 3 9, E034 - Social Policy Researchers, Consultants & Program Officers 3 3, F024 - Professional Occup. in Public Relations & Communications 3 5, F033 - Musicians & Singers 3 3, F142 - Interior Designers 3 2, G015 - Cleaning Supervisors 3 4, G412 - Cooks 3 20, G513 - Food & Beverage Servers 3 21, G612 - Firefighters 3 2, G933 - Janitors, Caretakers & Building Superintendents 3 26, G941 - Butchers & Meat Cutters, Retail & Wholesale 3 2, G972 - Grocery Clerks & Shelf Stockers 3 18, G981 - Dry Cleaning & Laundry Occupations 3 2, G983 - Other Elemental Service Occupations 3 2, H112 - Steamfitters, Pipefitters & Sprinkler System Installers 3 6, H143 - Insulators 3 1, H211 - Electricians (except Industrial & System) 3 17, H221 - Stationary Engineers & Auxiliary Equipment Operators 3 3, H311 - Machinists & Machining & Tooling Inspectors 3 4, H324 - Ironworkers 3 3, H531 - Residential & Commercial Installers & Servicers 3 5, H712 - Bus Drivers & Subway & Other Transit Operators 3 10, H812 - Material Handlers 3 22, A112 - Human Resources Managers % 3, A222 - Accommodation Service Managers 2 5, B315 - Purchasing Agents & Officers 2 9, B513 - Records & File Clerks 2 5, B514 - Receptionists & Switchboard Operators 2 23, B563 - Couriers & Messengers 2 2, B572 - Storekeepers and Parts Clerks 2 4, B574 - Purchasing & Inventory Clerks 2 2, C112 - Geological & Mineral Technologists & Technicians 2 5, C163 - Inspectors in Public & Environmental Health & Occ. Health& Safety 2 5, D111 - Head Nurses & Supervisors 2 under 1, E023 - Family, Marriage & Other Related Counsellors 2 3, E131 - Secondary School Teachers 2 7, G511 - Maîtres d'hôtel & Hosts/Hostesses 2 6, G731 - Operators & Attendants in Amusement, Recreation & Sport 2 7, G932 - Specialized Cleaners 2 5, G973 - Other Elemental Sales Occupations 2 3, H015 - Contractors & Supervisors, Carpentry Trades 2 2, H017 - Contractors & Supervisors, Heavy Construction Equipment Crews 2 6, H321 - Sheet al Workers 2 2, H611 - Heavy Equipment Operators (except Crane) 2 14, H612 - Public Works Maintenance Equipment Operators 2 3, H621 - Crane Operators 2 2,600 7

8 7612 H822 - Other Trades Helpers & Labourers 2 3, I021 - General Farm Workers 2 6, I122 - Supervisors, Oil & Gas Drilling and Service 2 14, I212 - Landscaping & Grounds Maintenance Labourers 2 8, J319 - Other Labourers in Processing, Manufacturing & Utilities 2 under 1, B553 - Customer Service, Information & Related Clerks % 13, C164 - Construction Inspectors 1 1, E112 - Post-Secondary Teaching & Research Assistants 1 10, F111 - Library & Archive Technicians & Assistants 1 1, G512 - Bartenders 1 4, G812 - Elementary & Secondary School Teacher Assistants 1 13, H144 - Painters & Decorators 1 7, H821 - Construction Trades Helpers & Labourers 1 21, H831 Public Works & Maintenance Labourers 1 2, I132 - Oil & Gas Well Drillers, Servicers, Testers & Related Workers 1 18, I142 - Oil & Gas Well Drilling Workers & Services Operators 1 6, B211 - Secretaries (except Legal and Medical) 0 9, B511 - General Office Clerks 0 2, I215 - Oil & Gas Drilling, Servicing & Related Labourers 0 5,400 TOTAL: 208 Occupations *NOC - Refers to the National Occupation Classification. For more information please visit: **NOC-S - Refers to the National Occupation Classification for Statistics. For more information please visit: 8