Defining and Serving Rural Communities

Transcription

1 Defining and Serving Rural Communities Photo: nicholas_t/flickr

2 Road Map Defining Rural Rural Performance Rural Opportunity

3 Defining Rural OMB Statistical Areas Designation by Population Size Definition based on what Rural lacks: population, limited institutional capacity, geographic isolation, limited access to services (e.g. health care, education).

4 Defining Rural USDA Economic Research Service County Typologies (Shared Characteristics) Definition based on what Rural is: county typologies focused on agriculture, energy, recreation, demographics that define shared characteristics of rural places.

5 Defining Rural Three Wests Classification Based on Economic Opportunity METRO Higher wages Less volatility More high-wage services Fastest-growing Younger, More educated CONNECTED (via airports) Over time, perform like METRO RURAL & ISOLATED (3% Pop, 50% Area) Lowest wages Most volatility Few high-wage services Slowest-growing Older & aging Less well-educated

6 Rural Performance U.S. Economy is Growing

7 Growth is Uneven and Unequal 20 cities are responsible for 50% of all new business formations since the Great Recession Economic Innovation Group Distressed Communities Index Series, May 2018

8 Rural Performance Changing Economic Geography Since % of new jobs created in 5 Montana counties Eric Dietrich / Solutions Journalism Network; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

9 Rural Performance 95% of New Jobs in U.S. in SERVICES Health care h care & & social social assistance assistance (20.4%) (20.4%) Accommodation ion & food & food services services (10.9%) (10.9%) Real Real estate estate & rental & rental & leasing & leasing (10.7%) (10.7%) Professional essional & & technical technical services services (10.0%) (10.0%) Administrative rative & & waste waste services services (8.2%) (8.2%) Other Other services, services, except except public public admin. admin. (6. 6%) (6. 6%) Finance Finance & insurance & insurance (6. 2%) (6. 2%) Educational services services (5.6%) (5.6%) Transportation & & warehousing (3.8%) (3.8%) Arts, Arts, entertainment, & recreat & recreat ion ion (3.8%) (3.8%) Government & & government enterprises (3.3%) (3.3%) Retail Retail Trade Trade (3.0%) (3.0%) Mining Mining (2.4%) (2.4%) Management of of companies & & enterprises (2.2%) (2.2%) Wholesale trade trade (1.9%) (1.9%) Forestry, ry, fishing, & & related related activities (.5%) (.5%) Construction (.4%) (.4%) Utilities ies Farm Farm employment Information Manufacturing -27,300-27, , , , ,200-3,830,400 6,056,400 6,056,400 3,226,000 3,226,000 3,178,800 3,178,800 2,971,100 2,971,100 2,419,400 2,419,400 1,960,600 1,960,600 1,845,100 1,845,100 1,650,700 1,650,700 1,125,300 1,125,300 1,123,900 1,123, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,200 New jobs ,000,000-4,000,000-2,000, , 000,000 2, 000,000 4,000, ,000 6, 000,000 6, 000,000 8,000, ,000 U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System, Washington, D.C. Table SA25N. Services Non-Services

10 Rural Performance New Jobs Clustered in Cities In the twentieth century, competition was about accumulating physical capital. Today it is about attracting the best human capital.

11 Rural Performance Most Important New Jobs Are In Innovation

12 Rural Performance Productivity Gains Shed Jobs in Traditional Sectors U.S. Manufacturing Employment and GDP, Value Low-value manufacturing (textiles, autos) sent offshore. High-value manufacturing remained in U.S. and automated. Jobs

13 Rural Performance The Great Decoupling Beginning around 1970, productivity gains no longer translate to higher wages & income

14 Rural Performance Resource Dependence Future Performance County performance on various measures of growth and prosperity predicted by trajectory in 1990 Proximity to Metro / Industry Diversity Amenities / Quality of Life Education Community Vision / Adaptability

15 Rural Opportunity Theory of Rural Development Agriculture, resource extraction & tourism Transportation, infrastructure, community capacity Diverse economy: Agriculture, resource industries, tourism, plus high-wage services, investment income, retirement, construction, health care, retail, etc.

16 Rural Opportunity Improve in Access to Markets

17 Rural Opportunity Leverage recreational and natural amenities

18 Rural Opportunity Use resource endowments to reinvest in workforce and institutions Greg Kearney, Wyofile,

19 Rural Opportunity Senators eye funding fix for Secure Rural Schools Kellie Lunney, E&E News reporter Published: Friday, September 7, 2018

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21 Only a crisis - actual or perceived - produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable.

22 Thank You or Questions?