Digitalizing the container supply chain

Transcription

1 Digitalizing the container supply chain May 2017 Intro Christian Roeloffs Head of BCG xchange Commercial & Business Development 2015 MVP launch members, process automation 2016 Worldwide roll-out 2014 Idea, conception, start xchange journey so far _Digitization the Supply Chain-vF.pptx 1

2 Medium term container forecast Cloudy TEU capacity on water vs. container demand (MTEU) % Short term supply growth driven by existing orders; no significant further additions to book 7.5% 8.1% Beyond current orderbook, some measured new orders and most of idle fleet introduced back to active fleet 3.7% 8.9% 6.1% 10.4% 7.5% 11.0% 7.7% 10.5% Bull scenario 1 Base / bear Bull scenario 1 Base case Bear scenario TEU Supply Demand In 2020, excess capacity in the range of 800k 2M TEU 1. If prolonged bullish demand, ships will speed up and idled ships will come on line; effective capacity on water to increase by 0.5% in 2018, 1% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020, Source: IHS World Trade Service (Q2 2016), Alphaliner, Drewry, BCG container f model _Digitization the Supply Chain-vF.pptx 2 Backup 2 CAGRs CAGR : Demand bull: 4.1% Demand base: 3.4% Demand bear: 2.3% Capacity bull: 4.1% Capacity base: 3.7% _Digitization the Supply Chain-vF.pptx 3

3 Backup 15 trends influencing container demand in next 5 years Mostly negative outlook Asia-Europe (& Intra-Europe) 1 Russian recession 2 Europe s & fragile recovery 3 Europe industrial output 4 Central European growth pockets Transpacific 5 Uneven distribution of US consumer demand 6 US re-industrialization Asia LatAm 13 Contraction of Brazil Transpacific & Intra-Asia 7 Maturing of China 8 China growth sdown 9 Healthy consumer sentiment in China 10 Vietnam & Indonesia growing strong Middle East /ISC 11 Middle East resilient to Oil price 12 Logistics infrastructure in India Africa 14 Currency effects for key markets (Nigeria, S. Africa) Global landscape 15 Commodity and oil prices for producer countries (e.g. KSA, Brazil, Nigeria, Angola) Source: BCG Expected effect on container trade Positive Negative Mixed Unlikely _Digitization the Supply Chain-vF.pptx 4 As traditional levers are exhausted, Digitalization opens new possibilities Traditional levers and new, digitally enabled levers Sales force effectiveness Network S steaming Idle time decrease Terminal cost D&D Fleet benchmarking Asset sharing Real time vessel monitoring Route Cloud based software solutions Direct sales Predictive maintenance Online self service for clients Data driven mgmt Impact Implementation effort _Digitization the Supply Chain-vF.pptx 5

4 T&L players in related fields blaze the trail Success stories from the industry Data driven mgtm. Direct sales Cloud based software solutions Asset Maersk Data Line driven sharing DHL Route mgmt What: : "Resilience360" What: Unified network United Parcel SC Risk Management to link vessels. Realtime tracking of position, Service Portal, analyzing unforeseen Fleet benchmarking maintenance temperature, route disruptions Predictive freight status e.g. What: Eliminated left and triggering turns from delivery appropriate mitigation, predictive routes strategies e.g. cargo vs. maintenance... Effect: Real time Cost saving, Route aircargo Cloud based Online Effect: self Cost savings, improve vessel reliabilityeffect: software Reduces risk serviceimproved customer monitoring and losses, services service service, reduced improvement onshore time Impact Implementation effort _Digitization the Supply Chain-vF.pptx 6 How to go about it: Common success factors Common success factors Learn to think agile: Iterate quickly, launch in beta and improve Find partners: Don't go it alone, leverage 3rd parties' strengths Listen to the data: Replace gut feeling with data based insight Chipping at the margin: In transportation, every cent counts _Digitization the Supply Chain-vF.pptx 7

5 Asset sharing in container shipping: Full potential to be unearthed A proven concept in B2C/C2C with ample applicability to container shipping Fleet benchmarking Asset sharing Real time vessel monitoring Route Cloud based software solutions Direct sales Predictive maintenance Online self service for clients Data driven mgmt Impact Implementation effort _Digitization the Supply Chain-vF.pptx 8 Backup Asset sharing: A digital opportunity with major cost saving potential North America 15% Latin America 14% Europe 29% 16% Asia 25% Middle East/ ISC 1 $15-20M annual savings available for average global carrier Annual avoidable empty moves ,000 Potential 25,000 95,000 Interchanges Remaining today Interchange potential per region as percentage of imbalances xx% Interchange potential per country as percentage of imbalances N/A 5% 95% 1. Indian Subcontinent. Note: The percentage for the interchange potential is calculated as the number of potential container interchanges divided by the sum of container surpluses or deficits, as reported by marketplace participants. Source: BCG xchange data; BCG analysis _Digitization the Supply Chain-vF.pptx 9

6 xchange: Digitalize your container supply chain Increase your efficiency, Kickoff your digital agenda Test new approaches to your container supply and think agile with real time insight in the container supply chain Collaborate with new partners and leverage win-win potential Organize your data in the cloud, gain access to new business intelligence tools Use any small increase in efficiency to save cost & maintain a competitive edge _Digitization the Supply Chain-vF.pptx 10 Let's discuss this further if you like Take a tour and try xchange Discuss your digitalization agenda in container logistics Explore immediate cost saving opportunities Get in touch! _Digitization the Supply Chain-vF.pptx 11