RESEARCH REPORT. Published 3Q ADITYA KAUL Research Director. CLINT WHEELOCK Managing Director

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1 RESEARCH REPORT NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger research report. If you are interested in purchasing the full report, please contact Tractica at sales@tractica.com. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Robotics Market Forecasts Consumer Robots, Enterprise Robots, Industrial Robots, Healthcare Robots, Military Robots, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, and Autonomous Vehicles Published 3Q 2016 ADITYA KAUL Research Director CLINT WHEELOCK Managing Director

2 SECTION 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The definition of a robot is in flux and traditional robot manufacturers that have been building and supplying robots for decades have seen this industry undergo a dramatic transformation in the past few years. Robots have either been part of popular culture and science fiction or have been the workhorses of industrial shop floors until now. This Tractica report presents a fresh perspective on the robotics market, which is not constrained by traditional viewpoints or definitions, but instead expands the definition of robots to include not just industrial robots or service robots, but also unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and autonomous vehicles, which are robots in their own right. The report also tracks the innovations and breakthroughs occurring in logistics and customer service robots, military robots, healthcare robots, and agricultural robots, which together constitute a comprehensive picture of the robotics market today and how it will be reshaped in the near future. The key underlying story emerging in the industry is that industrial robotics, which has been the traditional pillar of the robotics market, dominated by Japanese and European robotics manufacturers, is slowly giving way to non-industrial robot categories like personal assistant robots, UAVs, and autonomous vehicles, with the epicenter shifting toward Silicon Valley, which is now becoming a hotbed for artificial intelligence (AI), a set of technologies that are, in turn, driving a lot of the most significant advancements in robotics. Chart 1.1 Industrial and Non-Industrial Robotics Revenue, World Markets: $250,000 Industrial $200,000 Non-Industrial ($ Millions) $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $ (Source: Tractica) Tractica forecasts that the market for robotics will experience strong growth between 2016 and 2021 with revenue from unit sales (excluding support services such as installation and integration) of industrial and non-industrial robots growing from $34.1 billion in 2016 to 1

3 $226.2 billion by Most of this growth will be driven by non-industrial robots, which includes segments like consumer, enterprise, healthcare, military, UAVs, and autonomous vehicles. Based on Tractica s estimates, 2016 can be considered the turning point where nonindustrial robot revenue will overtake industrial robot revenue. Before this point, industrial robot revenue made up more than 50% of overall robotics revenue. At the end of 2016, Tractica estimates that industrial robots will contribute 41% of overall robotics revenue, with the remaining 59% coming from non-industrial robots. This sector largely consists of military robots, enterprise robots, consumer robots, and UAVs. Consumer robots as defined by Tractica include household chore robots like vacuum robots, pool cleaners, and lawn mowers; but they also include a new category of personal assistant or family robots, as well as toy and educational robots. Although part of this consumer robot market has been hyped with new entrants overpromising and under delivering, in the long run, Tractica expects a healthy growth for this market. Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies like machine vision and speech recognition capabilities will make consumer robots smarter and better companions for humans, beyond being just helpers. Companies like Jibo, Sphero, Anki, Blue Frog Robotics, and Wonder Workshop, among others, are introducing new innovations and product categories and bringing new enthusiasm into the robotics market. Traditional household robot manufacturers like irobot are also looking to expand beyond their vacuum robot category to adjacent markets like smart homes and personal assistants in the long run, as they see a larger addressable market. The enterprise robot category consists of robots that are generally considered service robots, but are present in separate enterprise verticals, such as agriculture, construction, logistics, and retail, or those that simply perform an enterprise function like telepresence. Logistics robots are seeing a lot of momentum on the back of the Amazon s acquisition of Kiva in 2012, which has led to 30,000 logistics robots being deployed in a period of 12 months across Amazon warehouses. A number of autonomous mobile robot (AMR) companies are now filling the gap in the market left by Kiva and targeting the growth of e-commerce and warehouses in China and India, or simply supplying logistics robots to traditional manufacturing companies. Some of these logistics robot companies that have emerged and are a growing presence include Adept (Omron), Canvas Technology, Fetch, Kinema Systems, MIR, Locus Robotics, Magazino, and Otto (Clearpath Robotics). Another category that is emerging within robotics is customer service robots. These are mostly humanoid robots that have facial recognition and speech recognition capabilities that can be applied for various customer service use cases. Japan s SoftBank Robotics already has more than 2,000 of these units deployed in stores, banks, and car dealerships, with plans to roll out more across Europe and North America shortly. Collaborative robots is an important trend in the industrial robotics space, with companies like Rethink Robotics pushing for robots and humans to work in collaboration, with smarter artificially intelligent software enabled robots that learn by doing, especially on repetitive tasks such as picking, packaging, line loading, and unloading. China is also undergoing a massive drive to automate its manufacturing base and aiming to ship more than 100,000 industrial robots annually by 2020, approximately a 50% increase from 2015 shipments. While this explosion in Chinese demand is driving industrial robotics forward, it will not be enough to meet demand for non-industrial robots. Tractica expects industrial robots to become a relatively small portion of a very large robotics market. One of the biggest takeaways from this report is the rise of autonomous vehicles as the leading robot category in the long run. There are multiple routes by which autonomous cars 2

4 will hit the market in the period between 2016 and First, Tractica expects autonomous capabilities to roll out as features in new cars, mostly luxury cars. Partial autonomous features include highway lane driving, highway lane changing, urban driving, valet parking, and urban mobility, some of which are already available in Tesla, Mercedes, Infiniti, and BMW models today. Second, autonomous cars will be launched as a fleet of ride sharing vehicles, and third, they will be offered as a retrofit kit to convert traditional cars to autonomous mode. Overall, Tractica forecasts that autonomous car shipments will reach 12 million units by At the same time, commercial autonomous vehicles, a category that includes trucks and shuttles, will see shipments reach 95,000 units by Overall, by 2021, autonomous vehicle revenue is estimated to be $117 billion, the largest among the robotics category. In context, the automotive supplier market in 2015 was $620 billion and autonomous cars will still be a small but growing share of the overall auto market. Chart 1.2 Total Robotics Revenue by Application Market (Detailed), World Markets: 2021 Others Enterprise Customer Service Military Exoskeletons Commercial AV Consumer AV Commercial UAV Consumer UAV Military UMS Military UGV Military UAV Military Demining Telepresence Surgical Logistics Household Hospital Rehabilitation Toy and Educational Construction Agriculture Others Industrial Electrical/Electronics Automotive $- $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000$120,000$140,000 ($ Millions) (Source: Tractica) Healthcare robots, including surgical robots, hospital robots, and rehabilitation robots, will grow in revenue from $1.7 billion in 2016 to $2.75 billion by 2021 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%. The largest category will be surgical robots, making up 97% of the revenue share. Military robots, including UAVs, autonomous ground vehicles (AGVs) or 3

5 unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), and autonomous ships and submarines or unmanned marine systems (UMSs), are expected to see high growth, with revenue tripling from 2016 to Within the military robotics sector, there is a trend of having smaller robots like nano UAVs or insect-like robots that are the size of a dragonfly, making them ideal for surveillance, reconnaissance, and intelligence gathering. Prox Dynamics is one of the leading suppliers for nano drones, and it has secured orders both from the British and the U.S. militaries. Initial testing and pilots of the PD-100 have been very positive, with expectations of nano drones completely reshaping how robots are used in the battlefield today. 4

6 SECTION 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION Executive Summary... 1 SECTION Definitions and Scope Robot Definition Robotics Application Markets: Definitions and Scope Robotics Technology Definitions... 6 SECTION Market Data Highlights Regional Highlights Application Market Highlights Technology Attach Rate Highlights SECTION Acronym and Abbreviation List SECTION Table of Contents SECTION Table of Charts and Figures SECTION Scope of Study Sources and Methodology Notes

7 SECTION 6 TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES Chart 1.1 Industrial and Non-Industrial Robotics Revenue, World Markets: Chart 1.2 Total Robotics Revenue by Application Market (Detailed), World Markets: Chart 3.1 Total Robotics Shipments by Region, World Markets: Chart 3.2 Total Robotics Revenue by Region, World Markets: Chart 3.3 Total Robotics Shipments by Application Market, World Markets: Chart 3.4 Total Robotics Shipments by Application Market (Detailed), World Markets: Chart 3.5 Total Robotics Revenue by Application Market, World Markets: Chart 3.6 Total Robotics Revenue by Application Market (Detailed), World Markets: Chart 3.7 Total Robotics Technology Attach Rates, World Markets: Chart 3.8 Total Robotics Shipments by Technology, World Markets: Chart 7.1 Tractica Research Methodology

8 SECTION 7 SCOPE OF STUDY This market forecast report covers the global market for robotics, including consumer robots, enterprise robots, industrial robots, healthcare robots, military robots, UAVs, and autonomous vehicles. These are further segmented into 23 robot application markets that include agriculture, automotive, construction, demining, customer service, educational and toy, electrical/electronics, rehabilitation, hospital, household, logistics, surgical, telepresence, military UAVs, military UGVs, military UMSs, consumer UAVs, commercial UAVs, consumer AVs, commercial AVs, military exoskeletons, other enterprise robots, and other industrial robots. The market data is categorized by robotics shipments and revenue segmented by world region, application market, and enabling technology. The technologies included in the attach rate analysis are machine vision, voice/speech recognition, gesture recognition, and tactile sensors. For consumer robots, connectivity technology attach rates are also included for Wi-Fi and Bluetooth. The forecast period for this report extends from 2016 through SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Tractica is an independent market research firm that provides industry participants and stakeholders with an objective, unbiased view of market dynamics and business opportunities within its coverage areas. The firm s industry analysts are dedicated to presenting clear and actionable analysis to support business planning initiatives and go-to-market strategies, utilizing rigorous market research methodologies and without regard for technology hype or special interests including Tractica s own client relationships. Within its market analysis, Tractica strives to offer conclusions and recommendations that reflect the most likely path of industry development, even when those views may be contrarian. The basis of Tractica s analysis is primary research collected from a variety of sources including industry interviews, vendor briefings, product demonstrations, and quantitative and qualitative market research focused on consumer and business end-users. Industry analysts conduct interviews with representative groups of executives, technology practitioners, sales and marketing professionals, industry association personnel, government representatives, investors, consultants, and other industry stakeholders. Analysts are diligent in pursuing interviews with representatives from every part of the value chain in an effort to gain a comprehensive view of current market activity and future plans. Within the firm s surveys and focus groups, respondent samples are carefully selected to ensure that they provide the most accurate possible view of demand dynamics within consumer and business markets, utilizing balanced and representative samples where appropriate and careful screening and qualification criteria in cases where the research topic requires a more targeted group of respondents. Tractica s primary research is supplemented by the review and analysis of all secondary information available on the topic being studied, including company news and financial information, technology specifications, product attributes, government and economic data, industry reports and databases from third-party sources, case studies, and reference customers. As applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within the firm s publications. All of Tractica s research reports and other publications are carefully reviewed and scrutinized by the firm s senior management team in an effort to ensure that research methodology is sound, all information provided is accurate, analyst assumptions are carefully documented, and conclusions are well-supported by facts. Tractica is highly responsive to feedback from industry participants and, in the event errors in the firm s research are identified and verified, such errors are corrected promptly. 21

9 Chart 7.1 Tractica Research Methodology MARKET RESEARCH SUPPLY SIDE DEMAND SIDE PRIMARY RESEARCH Industry Interviews Vendor Briefings Product Evaluations End-User Surveys End-User Focus Groups SECONDARY RESEARCH Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government & Economic Data Case Studies Reference Customers MARKET ANALYSIS QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS Company Analysis Business Models Competitive Landscape Technology Assessment Applications & Use Cases QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS Market Sizing Market Segmentation Market Forecasts Market Share Analysis Scenario Analysis (Source: Tractica) NOTES CAGR refers to compound annual growth rate, using the formula: CAGR = (End Year Value Start Year Value) (1/steps) 1. CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be given as well. Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year 2016 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. 22

10 Published 3Q Tractica LLC 1111 Pearl Street, Suite 201 Boulder, CO USA Tel: This publication is provided by Tractica LLC ( Tractica ). This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Tractica and may not otherwise be reproduced, recorded, photocopied, distributed, displayed, modified, extracted, accessed or used without the express written permission of Tractica. Notwithstanding the foregoing, Tractica makes no claim to any Government data and other data obtained from public sources found in this publication (whether or not the owners of such data are noted in this publication). If you do not have a license from Tractica covering this publication, please refrain from accessing or using this publication. Please contact Tractica to obtain a license to this publication. 23