M-TRADE. UC Critical Analysis Report (Executive Summary)

Transcription

1 UC Critical Analysis Report (Executive Summary) Reference: /TN27 Number of pages: 15 File: -TN27- DD01 Executive Summary Classification: Public Customer: Galileo Joint Undertaking Contract: GJU/05/2412/CTR/ Prepared by: INDRA Date: 20/03/2006 Signature:

2 /TN27 2 of 15 Summary Sheet Contract Number: Project Title: Deliverable Type: Deliverable Number: Title of Deliverable: WP related to the Deliverable: Emitting Company: Partner(s) Contributing: Abstract: GJU/05/2412/CTR/ : Multimodal TRAnsport supported by Egnos Technical Note TN27 UC Critical Analysis Report (Executive Summary) WP 2.1 & WP2.2 Telespazio NA This document gathers an executive summary of the results of the Critical Analysis phase. These results will be distributed through the Dissemination and Awareness campaign and will be used during the Implementation phase, being a key input for the action plan definition. Keywords: Critical Analysis, Assessment, Executive Summary Project WEB site address: Project Coordinator: Antonella Di Fazio Telespazio S.p.A. 965 via Tiburtina Rome - Italy Tel: Fax: FaxMail: Antonella_difazio@telespazio.it

3 /TN27 3 of 15 Distribution List Company Quantity Galileo Joint Undertaking 1 Telespazio 1 Alcatel Alenia Space France 1 BILK Kombiterminal 1 GMV Sistemas 1 Hitec Marketing 1 Indra 1 Interport BO 1 Kayser-Threde 1 LogicaCMG 1 Sistemi e Telematica 1 Trenitalia-Divisione Cargo 1 TTSItalia 1 via donau 1

4 /TN27 4 of 15 Change Records Issue Date Change Log Author(s) Draft 01 02/03/2006 First version of the DD01 Executive Summary S.Sánchez & WP2 Team 20/03/2006 Delivery for CAR close-out INDRA

5 /TN27 5 of EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background The economic scenario of the European Union is fast changing, and freight traffic volumes are rapidly growing, mainly road haulage that is still the first choice for goods transport. In this scenario, (Multimodal TRAnsportation supported by EGNOS) project has the objective of providing an alternative to road transportation through reduced costs and improved services. The introduction of GNSS, EGNOS and in the future Galileo, will facilitate the improvement of services in the multimodal transport field. s goal is to explore and promote the introduction of EGNOS/Galileo in the multimodal transportation sector by identifying an end-to-end solution reflecting the User Community viewpoint and maximising the exploitation of Galileo/EGNOS benefits in this field. The project activities are organised in three sequential phases: Phase I Critical Analysis Phase II Implementation Phase III Results Analysis. Objectives The present document is the public version of the WP2.1 and WP2.2 deliverable (DD01 UC Critical Analysis Report ). The purpose of this document is to gather the main results of the Critical Analysis phase. During this phase, performed a critical analysis of the present need and utilisation of position technologies and services in the multimodal freight transport User Community, in view of EGNOS/Galileo introduction, by: Outlining a panorama of the multimodal transport chain, main players and decision makers; Assessing the requirement for position-related information, taking into account operations, practises, standards and regulations already in place and trends; Analysing the present use of positioning technologies and the impacts of introducing EGNOS/Galileo (main technical and non-technical aspects - i.e. service enablers ); Assessing main open points and barriers, hindering the introduction of EGNOS/Galileo, and possible actions/framework for facilitating and removing barriers; Identifying Key Applications, exploiting EGNOS/Galileo differentiators; Evaluating EGNOS/Galileo added value, in terms of social and commercial benefits, market interests and forecast at short and medium-long terms (2005, ); Identifying priorities and relevant applications for the User Community ( Priority Applications ) for which EGNOS/Galileo differentiators have market value and related services can be successful commercially exploited;

6 /TN27 6 of 15 Exploring business opportunities for the whole downstream value-chain and the Galileo operators, also looking to the international nature of freight trade; Identifying necessary steps, guidelines and recommendations, to pursue and maximise the introduction and deployment of EGNOS/Galileo based solutions in Europe and in the world for the User Community, in short and medium-long term scenarios. Methodology The selection of the final Priority Applications to be developed and demonstrated in the successive project work, is done following a sequential process (Figure 1). First, a set of Candidate Applications needing position information are identified and preliminarily assessed with the aim of identifying the Key ones, taking into consideration the introduction of EGNOS and Galileo. These Key Applications are assessed and the obtained results taken into account for selecting those considered as Priority Applications, which become the input for the Action Plan that will be defined in the frame of successive WP3.1. Authorities Institutions Analysis of UC scenario Candidate Applications Actors Decision Makers Requirements Operation Practises Processes Trends Standard Rules Business relations Needs of position info Use of GNSS and ICT Key Applications Analysis Criteria Questionnaire & Interviews Desktop Research Assessment Criteria Questionnaire & Interviews Desktop Research Priority Applications Figure 1 - Roadmap for selecting the Priority Applications WP2.1 The Analysis Phase is aimed to show a clear scene of the User Community domain, in terms of actors, regulations, standards, main needs and requirements, operative processes and practises, supply and use of ITS solutions (in particular GNSS-based ITS), etc. It is also aimed to identify the Key GNSS application in the UC. It relies in the following detailed activities:

7 /TN27 7 of 15 The current scenario for GNSS use in this UC is analyzed; identifying any innovative and advanced EGNOS/Galileo applications in this UC domain, in order to explore the full potential of this technology in short and medium-long term. A clear panorama of the multimodal transport chain is outlined, in terms of main players and decision makers (Figure 2). Figure 2 Overview multimodal transport A survey of past and running applications, projects and studies is carried out. Direct interviews and meetings with operators involved in the project (and representing key players of the User Community) are performed, using a purposely prepared and user-friendly questionnaire. UC priorities (main needs and demands) related to use of GNSS, taking into account operations, practises and applicable regulations are identified. It concludes with a list of relevant applications (called Key Applications) to be assessed. Which are: 1. Shunting Operations 2. Asset and Resource Management 3. Freight Tracking and Tracing, for all type of goods (Supply chain monitoring and door-to-door delivery) The rationale for this selection is based on the following parameters that distinguish them from the other candidate applications:

8 /TN27 8 of 15 EGNOS/Galileo differentiator/added value, in terms of social and commercial benefits, along with evaluation of market interest and forecast in short and mediumlong term scenarios ( ) Avoiding duplication with monomodal transport sectors. The analysis of these Key Applications (detailed at the end of this document in Table 4) consists in: Description of the application and identification of relevant actors; Identification and analysis of the main user needs and requirements. State of the art: analysis of the current use of position technologies in the applications. This includes current solutions available as well as products or pilots. Identification of their benefits for the users, but also of their limitations in terms of technology aspects not only for positioning but also Web and ICT technology for the applications, costs for equipment/operation maintenance, architectures, standards, market, regulations, users issues, etc. WP2.2 The Assessment Phase is aimed to finally identify the necessary steps, guidelines and objectives in short and medium-long term scenarios to maximise the introduction and deployment of EGNOS/Galileo in this User Community. This is done considering also possible combination with other technologies that so far are not implemented. The assessment also takes into account the comparison of the benefits against the current UC scenario: Operational benefits associated with the higher level of accuracy, availability and reliability. Social and commercial benefits (e.g. investments, standards, regulations, applications, services and infrastructures). The assessment relies on the evaluation of interests of the UC towards the deployment of EGNOS/Galileo technologies and related services for the Key Applications, and the identification of any possible obstacle or barrier, and key drivers necessary for a successful introduction and deployment of EGNOS/Galileo use for these applications. Note that in order to understand the interests of the User Community, it is necessary to evaluate the main characteristics of the supply and distribution chains: dimension, level of complexity, analysis of logistic knots, needs of industry operators, also focusing on the deficiency in its organisation and management, industry and supply chain trends. Performed activities during this phase are: Details and discussion of the different enablers ; Main key drivers and barriers for GNSS (EGNOS/Galileo) introduction; Evaluation of market interest for EGNOS/Galileo-based technologies and service in the UC, for the short and medium-long term (time range: ); Regarding the market assessment some considerations shall be done: 1. Market interest and forecast is evaluated in short and medium-long term scenarios ( ). The European framework in which the User Community fits is also

9 /TN27 9 of 15 analysed, in terms of evaluation of interests and business opportunities in the same time range. 2. For estimating the market size the time frame of is considered in 5-year steps. First the development of the addressable market size for EU25 is estimated, and in less detail worldwide. If no figures for EU25 are available, EU15 is considered. The addressable market size figures are factored by GNSS penetration and market share ratios to finally get an appraisal for the market size. 3. A first indication of the benefits as well as the costs (in the sense of users willingness to pay) potentially resulting from the usage of Key services from a lead user point of view will be provided. This initial analysis of costs and benefits related to the Key applications will be extended in the course of Phase III. As a matter of fact, benefits generated and costs triggered by new applications serve as an essential basis in the decision process towards the adoption of new supplies. The analysis of Key Applications from a market perspective is an essential input when it comes to the selection of Priority Applications. Within the scope of the market assessment market sizes and cost/benefit considerations are taken into account. Obviously the overall number of wagons shunted is rather low compared to the ITUs transhipped at intermodal terminals or loaded for tracking and tracing services, but the potential of this market comes from the fact that it does not exist yet a consolidated GNSS solution for shunting operations, and the study shows that can introduce EGNOS/Galileo in this scenario. The usage of Galileo-based systems for wagon tracking (see Figure 3) is projected to increase from about in 2010 up to approximately in 2020, whereas the share is estimated to ascend from 10% in 2010 to 30% in 2020, in other words from about 600 in 2010 up to almost in Related to the second key application, management of assets and resources within a terminal (intermodal road/rail terminals, inland ports and seaports) is considered, focusing on the containerised cargo, The development of the number of container units for the next 15 years can be observed in Figure 3, and it is almost the same for EU25 (48% ascend) and worldwide (45% ascend). Similarly, the Galileo share behaves, which is about 3% of all containers in 2010 and approximately 24% in The market share for is estimated to increase form in EU25 ( worldwide) in 2010 up to units in 2020 ( worldwide). The number of containers is valid for Asset and Resource Management as well as for Freight Tracking and Tracing applications.

10 /TN27 10 of 15 Shunting Operations Asset & Resource Management Wagons Shunting wagons GNSS penetration Container Units (Mio Container Units GNSS penetration 50 Galileo share 1 Galileo share Figure 3: Market sizes for Shunting Operations and Asset & Resource Management - EU25 ( ) But not only the number of units is of interest when investigating the market for the Freight Tracking and Tracing applications. Further indicators have to be taken into account, like risks, value, time sensitivity and distance (see Table 1), since they considerably influence the choice of transport mode (typical characteristics for goods transported by intermodal transportation are: rather low value, not time-sensitive, long distances and the risk inherent should not be too high). Obviously, normal goods are ideal for intermodal transport, but the transport of perishable, dangerous, or high-value goods must also be considered, because it faces several bottlenecks, like time and security constraints or higher costs for packaging (i.e. reefer container). Thus the need for solutions fostering time and cost savings as well as an increase in reliability is much higher in these areas, which reflects in the added value perceived by the transport operator. Therefore, here market potential comes from the risk and value factors and the willingness to spend money for new technologies here is evidently higher. Tonnes (2004) Intermodal transport Value Time Sensitivity Distance Risks Normal goods 9, 7 mio. High Low to Medium Low Short to Long Low Perishable goods 2,4 mio. Low Low to Medium High Short to Long Medium Dangerous goods 1,5 mio. Medium Low to High Medium Long High High-value goods 1,9 mio. Low High High Short to Long Medium to High Table 1 Type of goods characteristics.

11 /TN27 11 of 15 Consequently, the preliminary analysis of the Freight Tracking and Tracing market proposes to first consider the tracking of dangerous and perishable goods since the potential seems to be the highest and it could be a challenging market for GNSS-based solutions. Within the scope of the cost/benefit considerations, a first indication of the benefits as well as the users willingness to pay (WTP) potentially resulting from the usage of key services are provided from a lead user point of view. The willingness to pay is related to the users perception of the benefit achievable with the new technology/services. For the Key Applications the Willingness top Pay in monetary terms is shown in the following table. Field of application Shunting Operations (per locomotive) Asset and Resource Management (per container) Freight Tracking and Tracing (per container) Willingness to Pay ( ) Equipment Service (per month) , Table 2 Willingness to Pay for the Key Applications Based on the benefit indicators identified qualitatively, the table below reports the quantification of operational cost savings related to case studies. Field of application Cost savings Shunting Operations (per wagon) 0,70 Asset and Resource Management (per TEU) 7,50 75 domestic / Freight Tracking and Tracing (per TEU) 150 intern. Table 3: Quantification of major EGNOS/Galileo benefits expected by potential customers It has to be noted that results on Willingness to Pay and the quantification of benefits are preliminary and will be updated after the applications trials. Summing up, considering market sizes and benefits perceived by users, Willingness to Pay respectively, the market potential is the highest regarding the application Asset and Resource Management, followed by Freight Tracking and Tracing of dangerous and perishable goods. After this assessment, two priority EGNOS/Galileo applications for the freight multimodal market have been identified: Node/Terminal yard management, including planning and monitoring of all those activities that can guarantee the best performance within the terminal and the best use of all its facilities - Shunting operations (application supporting the composition of different trains on different tracks);

12 /TN27 12 of 15 On-route/Supply chain monitoring and door-to-door delivery, including localisation and monitoring of remote asset position, goods condition, time of delivery/collection, change of transport mode - Perishable and Dangerous goods tracking and tracing. The proposed business model and service provision chain for EGNOS/Galileo services in the considered UC can be seen in Figure 4. It is based on a service package offer (rather then offering a single service ), being perceived as a suitable approach for guaranteeing the sustainability of the Cost/Benefit for a Service Provider, while allowing to reach various users and thus to create various business opportunities. Moreover, this approach allows simplifying the business models, resulting in benefits for the whole downstream value-chain and the Galileo Operators (taking into account that the considered UC is highly fragmentised and characterised by a huge number of heterogeneous actors). Figure 4 Business model Recommendations After the SWOT analysis for EGNOS/Galileo introduction in the UC, it arises that the use of GNSS technology in multimodal transport is very promising because it satisfies the UC demands in most of the analyzed applications, from a technological and economical point of view. Particularly, integrity and other service guarantees requirements are appropriate for regulated on-route applications dealing with special kind of goods (dangerous, highvalue ) and some high accuracy requirements in terminal yard applications can be

13 /TN27 13 of 15 reached when GNSS usage is correctly combined with some augmentation systems or RFID. The most important needs in order to obtain the desired success are summed up in the following points: The current situation reflects a very important degree of segmentation of the multimodal chain. To achieve the desired integration, cooperation among the different actors involved is essential. New regulations and standards are also needed to improve the efficiency of the process. However, firstly some important needs must be overcome: Technological issues o Interoperability and standardisation: integration as the key for an efficient multimodality. o Open and scalable system architecture (solutions for small and large companies). o Some important challenges in the mobile unit development: robustness, costs and power supply. Users aspects o It exists fragmentation in closed solutions for each monomodal application. To overcome this problem user awareness is needed, as well as a set-up of proper regulations (European and International). The necessary steps, guidelines and objectives in short and medium-long term scenarios ( ) to maximise the introduction and deployment of EGNOS/Galileo based solutions in Europe and in the world for this User Community are identified in the next bullets. Short term objectives Standardisation of architecture and protocols. Flexibility of the service provision. Use of active RFID and web technology. Design of mobile element (taking into account compactness, robustness, costs and power supply) Trustability and availability of market figures. Medium-long term objectives To suggest suitable legislations, obligating to share a minimum set of information, and proposing initiatives to revitalise alternatives mode of transport. To extend the use of EGNOS/Galileo to challenging application scenarios: Collected data and feedback will be used in the frame of phase III of the project, as inputs for refining the market study and providing guidelines/recommendations for a successful introduction and deployment of EGNOS/Galileo based technologies and service in the considered market segment.

14 /TN27 14 of 15 Application Scenario Application Scenario Description / Service Demands Application Name Application Description Shunting Operations Application supporting the composition of different trains on different tracks. Node -Terminal Planning and monitoring of all those activities that can yard guarantee not only the best performance within the management terminal but also the best use of all its facilities. On-route - Supply chain monitoring and door-to-door delivery Monitoring the supply chain lets the transport operator always know the status of its commitments in terms of fleet positioning, goods condition, time of delivery/collection, change of transport mode. This relies on the integration of specific applications along the supply chain. Asset and resource management Haulage delivery and freight collection Goods tracking and tracing Perishable goods tracking and tracing Dangerous goods tracking and tracing High-value goods tracking and tracing Application managing assets and resources within the terminal. It makes it possible to always have an updated picture of the terminal itself and thus know where ITU, wagons, locomotives are positioned together with relative information on status and content. Application supporting the series of safety and commercial controls during this phase of the transport. This phase starts when the transport means arrives/departs to/from the terminal gate. Application allowing to track and trace the ITU positioning along the supply chain, including also identification of goods and, if necessary, continuous status monitoring of transported freight (including tampering control). Note that this application can rely on integration with information coming from applications managing the transport means (e.g. road fleet management, train monitoring and positioning, vessel monitoring and positioning, etc) Infrastructure charging Supporting the collection of taxes associated with the use of infrastructures. These applications require little local infrastructure and allow charging to be based on wide criteria (time, location, distance and infrastructureusage, etc). Freight Tolling (Road Haulage) Waterway charges and inland waterways vessel harbour dues Infrastructure charging on rails Table 4 - List of Application Scenarios Application aimed to support governmental taxes for trucks based, for example, on distance driven, number of axles, the emission category of the truck, weight, etc. Applications supporting the RIS directive by assisting in levying charges for the use of the waterways. The travel data (together with the type and size of vessel, type and volume of cargo, frequency of travel, time of day, etc) can be used to automatically calculate the charge and initiate invoicing, thus facilitating the process for waterway users and authorities. GNSS-based toll systems supporting the charging of railway infrastructure fees.

15 /TN27 15 of 15 Conclusions has identified the following EGNOS/Galileo priority applications for the freight multimodal market: Node/Terminal yard management, including planning and monitoring of all those activities that can guarantee the best performance within the terminal and the best use of all its facilities - Shunting operations (application supporting the composition of different trains on different tracks); On-route/Supply chain monitoring and door-to-door delivery, including localisation and monitoring of remote asset position, goods condition, time of delivery/collection, change of transport mode - Perishable and Dangerous goods tracking and tracing. For them, a business model has been assessed, and a preliminary market analysis and evaluation of cost/benefit have been performed as well. Recommendations at short and medium-long terms (2010, ) have been outlined, taking into account main technology and non-technology service enablers, standards /regulations in place and present trends. These applications will be demonstrated in the trial campaign during phase II of the project. The collected data and feedback will be used in the frame of phase III of the project, as valuable inputs for: Validating applications for which EGNOS/Galileo differentiators have market value for the whole downstream value-chain, and related services can be successful commercially exploited also looking to the international nature of the freight trade; Refining the real business cases; Providing guidelines/recommendations for pushing the adoption of EGNOS/Galileo in the sector.