SYRIA MARKET MONITORING EXERCISE

Transcription

1 SYRIA MARKET MONITORING EXERCISE Cash-Based Responses Technical Working Group Snapshot: May 18 INTRODUCTION KEY DEVELOPMENTS To inform humanitarian cash programming, REACH and the Cash-Based Responses Technical Working Group (CBR-TWG) conduct ly market monitoring throughout Syria to assess the availability and prices of 36 basic commodities that are typically sold in markets and consumed by average Syrian households, including food and non-food items, water, fuel, and cellphone data. Of these, 18 items comprise the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (), see below, which represents the minimum culturally adjusted items required to support a 6-person household for a. Data was collected this by ACTED, CARE, Shafak, Concern, Danish Church Aid, GOAL, Ihsan, IRC, Mercy Corps, People in Need, REACH, Save the Children, Solidarités International, Violet, and Watan. Datasets are available on the REACH Resource Centre, the Humanitarian Data Ex, and are also distributed through partners across the humanitarian community. SURVIVAL MINIMUM EXPENDITURE BASKET () CONTENTS Item Food Items Bread Bulgur Chicken Eggs Fresh vegetables Ghee/vegetable oil Red lentils Rice Salt Sugar Tomato paste Hygiene Bathing soap items Laundry/dish soap Sanitary pads Toothpaste Fuel Cooking fuel* Water Water trucking Telecom Smartphone data Other Float (other costs)** Quantity 37 kg 15 kg 6 kg 6 kg 12 kg 7 kg/l 15 kg 19 kg 1 kg 5 kg 6 kg 12 bars 3 kg 4 packs of 10 0 g 25 L 4 L 1 GB 7.5% total value * Kerosene in northern Syria; LP Gas in southern Syria ** Float only applied to observations where prices of all contents could be collected WoS: Dollar ex rate continues to fall The US Dollar to Syrian Pound ex rate fell for the third consecutive. While the Pound has not strengthened to the degree seen in December 17, the rate is such that the Dollar denominated median cost for all three regions was increasing whereas the Pound denominated cost continued to decrease. WoS: Regional median costs declining Regional median costs have continued to decline gradually. However, the median cost of the south continues to be the highest across the three regions. Northwest: Hygiene items less expensive in the south of the region Hygiene items of the have been consistently cheaper in assessed communities in southern Idleb. Partners noted that the existence of local production for certain soap products may explain the lower prices of hygiene items compared to the rest of the region. Northeast: Hygiene items less expensive in the west of the region In comparison to the rest of the region, the median prices of hygiene commodities monitored through the were lower in the west of the region. The cheaper prices were attributed to the existence of local producers of soap products and the role of these assessed communities as wholesale hubs for surrounding communities. Northeast: Food costs diverging While the median sub-district cost of food items converged between December 17 and March 18, prices have been diverging since April 18. ASSESSED AREAS AND COVERAGE Northwest AL HASAKEH ALEPPO AR RAQQA HAMA TARTOUS RURAL DAMASCUS DAMASCUS QUNEITRA DAR'A AS SWEIDA South South: Food distributions edge out vendors Some assessed vendors reported that they opted to not stock certain commodities in May in response to demand being largely met by humanitarian distributions. These commodities were red lentils, bulgur, rice, and to a lesser extent, toothpaste. However, it should be noted that there were no communities where all assessed vendors reported stocking decisions as described above. 68,664 SYP ( USD) NORTHWEST SYRIA - IDLEB, LATTAKIA, & WESTERN ALEPPO GOVERNORATES 56,763 SYP ( USD) NORTHEAST SYRIA - AL-HASAKEH, AL-RAQQA, & EASTERN ALEPPO GOVERNORATES 65,668 SYP ( USD) SOUTH SYRIA - DAR A & QUNEITRA GOVERNORATES MEDIAN COSTS, BY MONTH & DEIR EZ ZOR South COVERAGE HOMS Prices observed in the region continued to react to the announced phasing out of flour aid to bakeries. Larger communities with stockpiles of flour appear to be maintaining stable prices over the past three s, or saw slight decreases in prices since April. MEDIAN COST IN SYP (USD), BY Northeast LATTAKIA IDLEB South: Bread prices rising as flour aid cut 118 COMMUNITIES 64 8 GOVERNORATES Assessed sub-district with complete data collection Assessed sub-district with data collection missing items (see regional sections) Assessed sub-district with complete data collection, no water trucking* not assessed *Water trucking not used in sub-district Northwest Northeast

2 SOUTH SYRIA: KEY DEVELOPMENTS AND OVERVIEW KEY DEVELOPMENTS price stable since March The median regional cost saw a slight decrease between April and May, decreasing by approximately 700 SYP (-1%). With the exception of, all sub-districts in the south saw median costs decrease or increase in value between -5% and 5%. Bread prices rising as flour aid decreases Prices observed in the region continued to react to the announced phasing out of flour aid to bakeries. Larger communities with stockpiles of flour appeared to be maintaining stable prices over the past three s, or saw slight decreases in prices since April. However, it was reported that some bakeries have coped with decreases in flour supplies by producing smaller loaves of bread. Price increases were also observed, most notably in communities assessed in,,, Es-Sham, Al-Khashiyyeh,, and. Food distributions competing with vendors Some assessed vendors reported that they opted to not stock certain commodities in May in response to demand being largely met by humanitarian distributions. These commodities were red lentils, bulgur, rice, and to a lesser extent, toothpaste. However, it should be noted that there were no communities where all assessed vendors reported stocking decisions as described above. COMPLETE COST RANGES (SYP), BY SUB-DISTRICT Cost 50,000 SYP or less 50,001 to 60,000 SYP 60,001 to 70,000 SYP 70,001 to 80,000 SYP 80,001 SYP or more Incomplete Æç Æç Æç Æç Æç Closed Æç Open Æç Sporadically Open Governorate Capital Urban Area Motorway/Primary Road COST & CHANGES South Syria 65, % -8.8% 67, % -10.2% 67, % -10.0% 64, % -6.7% 65, % -2.3% 68, % +3.9% 65, % -22.6% 69, % -8.3% 68, % -11.1% 57, % -9.3% 68, % -5.2% 60, % -13.5% 63, % -12.6% 63, % -13.7% 68, % -1.3% 65, % NA WITH INCOMPLETE S IN MAY SUB-DISTRICT MISSING ITEMS Note: A lack of data for a item does not imply a shortage MEDIAN COSTS, BY MONTH EXCHANGE RATES, BY MONTH & CURRENCY 700 JOD/SYP 600 USD/SYP Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: May 18 2

3 SOUTH SYRIA: FOOD ITEMS & COOKING FUEL FOOD ITEMS See Page 1, Syrian Pounds Food Items COOKING FUEL LP Gas 25L, Syrian Pounds Cooking Fuel MEDIAN FOOD COSTS, BY MONTH + South Syria 45, % -1.9% 474, % -3.6% South Syria 6, -6.3% -38.3% 6, % -42.3% 50 45, % -2.6% 6, % -39.8% 42, % -4.4% 6, -1.9% -37.3% 43, % +1.6% 6, % -39.5% 50, % 16.3% 44, % -18.7% 6, -8.8% -37.7% 6, -7.1% -38.1% 40 46, % -4.7% 6, % -36.4% 49, % -8.8% 6, % -35.3% 39, % -4.5% 47, % +3.6% 41, % -12.2% 44, % -4.4% 43, % -10.6% 46, % +7.2% 46, % NA 6, % -41.2% 6, % -37.2% 6, % -38.8% 6, % -40.6% 6, % -36.5% 6, % -37.1% 6, % NA 30 MEDIAN COOKING FUEL COSTS, BY MONTH Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: May 18

4 SOUTH SYRIA: FOOD ITEMS & COOKING FUEL FOOD ITEMS s & communities, Syrian Pounds Closed Open Sporadically Open Governorate Capital Urban Area Motorway/Primary Road COOKING FUEL s & Communities, Syrian Pounds Closed Open Sporadically Open Governorate Capital Urban Area Motorway/Primary Road Cost: Food Items 37,000 SYP or less 37,001 to 40,000 SYP 40,001 to 43,000 SYP 43,001 to 46,000 SYP 46,001 SYP or greater Cost: Cooking Fuel 2, SYP or less 2,501 to 4,000 SYP 4,001 to 5, SYP 5,501 to 7,000 SYP 7,001 SYP or greater Price not available Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: May 18 4

5 SOUTH SYRIA: WATER TRUCKING & TRANSPORT FUEL MEDIAN WATER TRUCKING 4,L, Syrian Pounds Water Truck South Syria 2, % -3.9% MEDIAN TRANSPORT FUEL PRICE Diesel and Petrol 1L (Government of Syria and Manually Refined), Syrian Pounds Diesel and Petrol South Syria % -22.4% MEDIAN WATER TRUCKING COSTS, BY MONTH 7.5 2, % +1.9% % -25.0% + 2, % -11.9% % -18.1% 1, % -16.0% 2, % +3.7% % -21.5% % -25.8% 5.0 1, % -9.7% % -22.6% 2, % -21.0% % -21.3% 2, % 0.0% % -.4% 2.5 2, % 0.0% % -19.4% 1, % -7.9% % -26.1% 2, % -2.0% 2, % +0.9% % -23.5% % -22.7% 2, % -32.5% 2, % -15.1% 2, % +4.0% 1,6-5.3% NA % -23.0% % -18.8% % -23.5% % NA TRANSPORT FUEL COSTS, BY MONTH & TYPE 450 MANUALLY REFINED PETROL 400 GoS REFINED PETROL 350 GoS REFINED DIESEL 300 MANUALLY REFINED DIESEL 5 Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: May 18

6 SOUTH SYRIA: WATER TRUCKING & TRANSPORT FUEL WATER TRUCKING s & communities, Syrian Pounds Closed Open Sporadically Open Governorate Capital Urban Area Motorway/Primary Road TRANSPORT FUEL s & communities, Syrian Pounds Closed Open Sporadically Open Governorate Capital Urban Area Motorway/Primary Road Cost: Water 1 SYP or less 1,501 to 2,000 SYP 2,001 to 2, SYP 2,501 to 3,000 SYP 3,001 SYP or greater No Water trucking Cost: Transport Fuel 150 SYP or less 151 to 0 SYP 1 to 250 SYP 251 to 300 SYP 301 SYP or greater Price not available Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: May 18 6

7 SOUTH SYRIA: HYGIENE ITEMS & CELLPHONE DATA MEDIAN HYGIENE ITEMS 12 bars soap, 4 packs of 10 sanitary pads, 0g toothpaste, Syrian Pounds Hygiene items MEDIAN CELLPHONE DATA 1GB data, Syrian Pound Phone Data MEDIAN HYGIENE ITEMS COSTS, BY MONTH 11 South Syria 4, % -1.9% 4, % -12.2% South Syria 2, % -9.1% 1, % -6.3% 9 5, % -17.1% 3, % -2.7% 5, % +1.2% 5, % +8.3% 3, % % 2, % % 7 4, % -0.3% 1, % -33.3% 5, % -2.9% 4, % -2.5% 1, % -59.8% 3, % +10.5% 5 4, % +13.1% 1, % 0.0% 3, % +7.4% 2, % +25.0% 5, % -7.2% 4, % +29.9% 4, % -6.9% 4, % +2.5% 5, % +9.6% 2, % -30.6% 1, % -12.9% 1, -45.5% -25.0% 2, % -4.3% 2, % -.4% MEDIAN CELLPHONE DATA COSTS, BY MONTH 4, % NA 1, 0.0% NA Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: May 18

8 SOUTH SYRIA: HYGIENE ITEMS & CELLPHONE DATA HYGIENE ITEMS s & Communities, Syrian Pounds Closed Open Sporadically Open Governorate Capital Urban Area Motorway/Primary Road CELLPHONE DATA s & Communities, Syrian Pounds Closed Open Sporadically Open Governorate Capital Urban Area Motorway/Primary Road Cost: NFI Cost: Data 3,000 SYP or less 3,001 to 4,000 SYP 4,001 to 5,000 SYP 5,001 to 6,000 SYP 6,000 SYP or greater Price not available 1,000 SYP or less 1,001 to 1, SYP 1,501 to 2,000 SYP 2,001 to 2, SYP 2, SYP or greater Price not available Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: May 18 8

9 SOUTH SYRIA: DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRICES ASSESSED FOOD ITEMS Syrian Pounds LOOSE TEA Syrian Pounds 4 4 WATER TRUCKING Syrian Pounds Eggs (30 eggs) 850 Ghee 600 Chicken Vegetable Oil Rice Tomato Paste 400 Red Lentils 300 Sugar Cucumbers Bulgur Flour Milk Tomatoes Bread (8 slices) Potatoes Onions Salt ( g) Tea Water Trucking ASSESSED FUEL ITEMS Syrian Pounds ASSESSED HYGIENE ITEMS Syrian Pounds READING BOXPLOTS Maximum price in dataset Upper quartile: 25% of data is above this point GoS Petrol Manually Refined Petrol 290 GoS Diesel Manually Refined Diesel LP Gas 260 Manually Refined Kerosene Laundry Powder 100 Toothpaste (100 g) Dishwashing Liquid 344 Sanitary Pads (1 Pack) Bathing Soap (1 bar) Example Commodity (1 unit) 100 Median price in dataset Lower quartile: 25% of data is below this point Minimum price in dataset 9 Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: May 18

10 APPENDIX AND METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGY To be included in the Syria Market Monitoring Exercise, markets must be permanent in nature, large enough to support at least two wholesalers, and diverse enough to provide a sufficient variety of goods and commodities. The shops surveyed within each market must be housed in permanent structures and must sell certain items to be eligible for inclusion. Participating organisations train their enumerators on the Market Monitoring methodology and data collection tools using standard training materials developed by REACH. Each enumerator aims to assess three to five shops of each type in the main market in their assigned sub-district, using surveys to collect information about prices, current product inventory and the time needed to replace current stocks. In sub-districts where direct surveying by enumerators is not possible, such as Lattakia and Deir-ez-Zor, data collection is conducted remotely through key informants such as shop owners, suppliers and consumers. A survey form is deployed on KoBo each to capture price and stock information from different types of establishments, including grocery stores, fuel traders, currency ex shops, water trucking services and mobile phone shops, among others. Nearly all participating partners submit their data to these KoBo forms, using the KoBoCollect Android app to upload data. A small number of partners, by prior permission, collect data using fully harmonised data collection tools deployed on other platforms, then submit their raw data to REACH for standardisation, compilation and cleaning. Following data collection, REACH compiles and cleans all partners data, normalising prices and cross-checking outliers. The cleaned data is then analysed by costs, components of the, and by commodities. These trends are observed at the sub-district-level and, when possible, at the community-level. Prices are divided into quartiles and boxplots are created to help CBR TWG members understand the distribution of prices. To illustrate local variations in prices and availability, REACH uses the collected data to map the price of an in each sub-district and adds illustrations of surrounding border crossings, with data sourced from OCHA. In addition, each component costs and transport fuel prices are graphed to visualize trends over time. The cleaned data sets are available on the REACH Resource Centre and are distributed to all participating partners, as well as to interested clusters and the broader humanitarian community. CHALLENGES AND LIMITATIONS As the Syria Market Monitoring Exercise currently includes 14 partners based in 3 hubs, achieving a consistent approach is inherently challenging. Participating organisations are therefore requested to adopt harmonised data collection methodologies and tools to ensure that the data uploaded is as accurate as possible. Confirming commodity shortages in certain communities was difficult due to a lack of information about general market availability. When follow-ups were unable to confirm these shortages, this is stated in the text. Because this exercise collects data directly from vendors and because it relies on partner organizations for its wide coverage, the exercise may lose coverage sporadically or for longer periods of time owing to challenges in accessing locations or due to loss in the shared data collection capacity of the project. This impacts the ability to report on trends, as can be seen in the line graphs and NA values in the tables. CHANGES TO COVERAGE Given security and access constraints in the divided cities of Al-Hasakeh and Quamishli, markets on only one side of the city could be surveyed. Due to violence, coverage was lost in Eastern Ghouta. CALCULATING MEDIAN CHEAPEST PRICE This figure is calculated by taking the median of the minimum-reported prices of a region s sub-districts. In turn, the minimum-reported prices for each sub-district were taken from the median of the minimum-reported prices of the constituent towns assessed. CALCULATING SURVIVAL MINIMUM EXPENDITURE BASKET () COSTS The cost of a is calculated for each assessed sub-districts by calculating the median cheapest price of each commodity in that sub-district, then multiplying these medians by the number of units that an average Syrian household requires to purchase in a. The composition of the can be found on page 1. WHAT IS THE? The Cash-Based Responses Technical Working Group (CBR TWG) was established in May 14 to analyse the impact of the ongoing conflict on markets in Syria and guide the implementation of humanitarian cash and voucher programmes within those markets. REACH and the CBR TWG have been partners on the Syria Market Monitoring Exercise since early 15. Since February 17, the exercise expanded coverage into the south, bringing ly market assessments to communities in Damascus, Rural Damascus, Dar a and governorates. ABOUT REACH REACH is a joint initiative of two international non-governmental organizations ACTED and IMPACT Initiatives and the UN Operational Satellite Applications Programme (UNOSAT). REACH facilitates the development of information tools and products that enhance the capacity of aid actors to make evidence-based decisions in emergency, recovery and development contexts. By doing so, REACH contributes to ensuring that communities affected by emergencies receive the support they need. All REACH activities are conducted in support to and within the framework of inter-agency aid coordination mechanisms. For more information, please visit our website at contact us directly at geneva@reach-initiative.org or follow us on Twitter Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: May 18 10