Mobility after the car era

Transcription

1 11 December 2014 Future of Mobility, TUe Eindhoven, 11 November Future of Mobility Approach: driving forces, long term, facts & figures slides Speed 8 Urbanization 7 Mobility in Freight transport 5 Sustainable mobility 6 Transport technology 2 Conclusions 1 1

2 11 December Mobility in pkm (France) 1/8 Grübler Mobility in pkm (Europe) / Rail Passenger Private Cars Bus and Coach Total Inland Passenger CEPS

3 11 December Car mileage per person (USA) 3/8 Wordpress.com Constant travel time 4/8 Schäfer and Victor

4 11 December Explaining growth in passenger travel 5/8 Mobility [pkm/day] Population [P] Average travel speed [km/h] Travel time ~ 1,1 [h/day] 8 Constant travel time (UK) 6/8 Department for Transport 4

5 11 December Speed (Netherlands) 7/8 Gemiddelde snelheid (km/uur) km /uur Jaren incl. vliegtuig excl. vliegtuig Verkeer en Waterstaat Mobility (Western Europe) 8/8 Bleijenberg

6 11 December Accessibility counts: economic and social 1/7 Accessibility Speed Distance 12 Urban population /7 100,0 90,0 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 World Western Europe Netherlands 30,0 20,0 10,0 UN

7 11 December Urbanisation and economy 3/7 Sharing Matching Learning Duranton and Puga Rise of the knowledge and creative economy 4/7 Florida

8 11 December New urbanization 5/7 16 Daily trips in Paris 6/7 WBCSD

9 11 December Urbanization determines mobility (Netherlands) 7/7 Most urban Least urban Average trip distance 10 km 12 km Average commuting distance 17 km 20 km Distance to hospital, station, theatre 2 3 km 9 km Average speed 24 km/h 33 km/h Average speed car 39 km/h 45 km/h Average travel time ppd 1,1 h 1,0 h Car trips 36% 55% Public transport trips 10% 2% Walking and cycling 53% 40% Total kilometres ppd 26 km 32 km Car kilometres ppd 16 km - 40% 26 km CBS Mobility in (Western Europe) 1/1 9

10 11 December Freight transport in tkm (France) 1/5 Grübler Price road freight in ct/tkm (Europe and Netherlands) 2/5 Verkeer en Waterstaat

11 11 December Freight transport in tkm (Europe) / Rail Freight Road Freight Total Inland Waterways Freight Oil Pipelines Total Inland Freight CEPS Explaining growth in freight transport 4/5 Impact Change Economic value (GDP) + - Physical economy (weight, volume) Liberalisation, globalisation Reduction transport costs Range of consumer goods ++ - Comparative advantages ++ - Freight transport growth -- 11

12 11 December Logistics sprawl and city logistics 5/5 Towards: Spatial concentration of production sites, distribution centres and multi modal hubs Public service city logistics Tavasszy CO 2 emissions transport: trend and target (EU) 1/6 EEA TERM

13 11 December Air pollution from road traffic (EU) 2/6 EC Standards for air pollution from cars (EU) 3/6 CEPS

14 11 December Standards for CO 2 from cars (international) 4/6 Ricardo AEA Sustainable mobility 5/6 14

15 11 December Reduction CO 2 from transport (EU) 6/6-80,00% -70,00% -60,00% -50,00% -40,00% -30,00% -20,00% -10,00% 0,00% TOTAL Transport Volume Efficient Transport System Eco-driving Low Carbon Fuels, Engines 75-90% CEPS Timeline transport technologies 1/2 Steam train Electric engine Combustion engine Airplane Car Electric train Jet engine Manned space ship Sea container

16 11 December New transport technologies? 2/2 Long distance travel: Beat the airplane! Urban travel: Beat the underground! Or beat the car in door-todoor speed! And the truck in generalised costs! 32 Developments and challenges Aviation becomes dominant transport mode for passenger travel Clean technology for cars, trucks, ships and airplanes New urbanization: knowledge economy and end car growth Urbanization requires improved mass transit, elevators, cycling and walking; car, van and truck continue to play their part. Uncertainties and challenges Faster urban transport than the underground? Faster long distance travel than aviation? Faster or cheaper than car and truck on medium distances? Impact ICT on travel behaviour? Space ship as future travel mode? 16

17 11 December Thank you for your attention! Questions? Discourse? 17