Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update

Transcription

1 banchero costa Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update (a review of deliveries, demo, orders, and rates) September 2018 banchero costa research ; research@bancosta.com Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 1

2 Fleet Developments (deliveries, demolitions, orders) Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 2

3 Our size definitions for bulkers: VLOC Capesize Post-Panamax Panamax Supramax Handysize 220,000+ dwt 120, ,999 dwt 85, ,999 dwt 65,000-84,999 dwt 40,000-64,999 dwt 20,000-39,999 dwt (note: for all sizes, includes both general purpose bulk carriers and ore carriers, but excludes OBOs and specialist vessels such as cement carriers, con-bulkers, woodchip carriers and self-unloaders) Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 3

4 units 1,200 1,100 1, Dry Bulk Deliveries + Orderbook in No. of Units - Annual (September 2018 ; only units over 20,000 dwt ; in units ; assuming 30% slippage) Handysize Supramax Panamax Post-Panamax Capesize VLOC In 2017, we recorded the delivery of 427 dry bulk vessels over 20,000 dwt, for a total of 37.1 mln dwt. These included: 13 VLOCs (3.4 mln dwt), 59 Capesizes (11.6 mln dwt), 13 Post-Panamaxes (1.2 mln dwt), 100 Panamaxes (8.1 mln dwt), 161 Supramaxes (9.8 mln dwt) and 81 Handysizes (3.0 mln dwt). After assuming delivery slippages, deliveries in 2018 could come in at a lower level of around 270 vessels equivalent to 28 mln dwt. Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 4

5 Dry Bulk Deliveries in No. of Units - Monthly (September 2018 ; only units over 20,000 dwt ; in units) units / / / / / / /2018 Handysize Supramax Panamax Post-Panamax Capesize VLOC In August 2018, we recorded the delivery of 13 units over 20,000 dwt, for a total of 1.8 mln dwt. These included: 3 VLOCs (1.05 mln dwt), 1 Capesize (0.21 mln dwt), 1 Panamax (0.08 mln dwt), 5 Supramaxes (0.31 mln dwt) and 3 Handysizes (0.11 mln dwt). In the first 8 months of 2018, 190 units for a total of 19.4 mln dwt were delivered, compared to 367 units amounting to 31.6 mln dwt delivered the same period in Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 5

6 Dry Bulk Demolitions in No. of Units - Monthly (September 2018 ; only units over 20,000 dwt ; in units) units / / / / / / /2018 Handysize Supramax Panamax Post-Panamax Capesize VLOC In August 2018, only 1 Handysize of 40,000 dwt was scrapped. In the first 8 months of 2018, 32 vessels amounting to 3.1 mln dwt were demolished, compared to 158 units amounting to 10.5 mln dwt scrapped the same period in Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 6

7 Dry Bulk Newbuilding Orders in No. of Units - Monthly (September 2018 ; only units over 20,000 dwt ; in units) units / / / / / / /2018 Handysize Supramax Panamax Post-Panamax Capesize VLOC In August 2018, 15 new orders were reported placed for a total of 1.5 mln dwt, comprising of 2 Capesizes (0.42 mln dwt), 7 Post-Panamaxes (0.65 mln dwt), 4 Panamaxes (0.33 mln dwt), and 2 Supramaxes (0.13 mln dwt). In the first 8 months of 2018, 120 new orders totalling 13.6 mln dwt were reported, compared to 81 units amounting to 9.5 mln dwt ordered the same period in Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 7

8 Charter and S&P Markets (rates, prices, sales volume) Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 8

9 USD/day banchero costa Baltic Exchange Capesize TC Average - Seasonality (source: the baltic exchange ; daily data ; USD/day) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec In August 2018, the Capesize market averaged around 25,000 usd/day, up 4.5 percent month-on-month and 56.0 percent year-on-year. Capesize rates have been falling the past few weeks due to a build-up of tonnage and lack of Brazil cargoes. Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 9

10 USD/day banchero costa Baltic Exchange Panamax TC Average - Seasonality (source: the baltic exchange ; daily data ; USD/day) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec In August 2018, Panamax rates averaged around 11,900 usd/day, down 0.4 percent month-on-month but up 20.0 percent year-on-year. Rates have generally remained supported with the strong Cape market, and as coal trade in the North Atlantic and to India strengthened. However, trade tensions between the U.S. and China continue to threaten to weigh down Panamax rates. Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 10

11 USD/day banchero costa Baltic Exchange Supramax TC Average - Seasonality (source: the baltic exchange ; daily data ; USD/day) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec In August 2018, Supramax rates averaged around 11,700 usd/day, up 5.6 percent month-on-month and 30.4 percent year-on-year. Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 11

12 USD/day banchero costa Baltic Exchange Handysize TC Average - Seasonality (source: the baltic exchange ; daily data ; USD/day) 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec In August 2018, Handysize rates averaged around 8,000 usd/day, down 2.8 percent month-on-month but up 15.0 percent year-on-year. Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 12

13 USD/day banchero costa Dry Bulk - 1-Year Timecharter Rates - last 36 months (estimated monthly averages ; in USD/day) 24,000 21,000 18,000 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3, / / / / / / /2018 Handysize Supramax Panamax Capesize Since reaching a bottom in February 2016, period rates for Capesizes have been rising steadily, with levels currently around 37 percent higher year-on-year. Rates for the other segments have been flattening the past few months. Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 13

14 USD mln banchero costa Dry Bulk Newbuilding Prices - last 36 months (indicative average ; monthly data ; in USD mln) / / / / / / /2018 Handysize Supramax Panamax Capesize Newbuilding prices stayed flat month-on-month in August Prices remained up between percent year-onyear. Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 14

15 USD mln banchero costa Dry Bulk 5 Year Old Secondhand Prices - last 36 months (indicative average ; monthly data ; in USD mln) / / / / / / /2018 Handysize Supramax Panamax Capesize In August 2018, secondhand values for Capesizes and Supramaxes increased 2 percent and 1 percent respectively compared with the previous month, while the other sizes remained flat. Secondhand prices are currently between percent higher year-on-year. Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 15

16 Dry Bulk Reported Secondhand Sales in No. of Units (September 2018 ; only units over 20,000 dwt ; monthly data ; in units) units / / / / / / /2018 Handysize Supramax Panamax Post-Panamax Capesize VLOC In August 2018, there were 44 reported secondhand sales, including 13 Capesizes, 1 Post-Panamax, 5 Panamaxes, 15 Supramaxes, and 10 Handysizes. In the first 8 months of 2018, 393 units were reported sold, of which 152 were Supramaxes, 95 were Handysizes, and 88 were Panamaxes. Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 16

17 Summary (key figures for fleet, rates, and prices) Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 17

18 In units Aug 2018 Jan-Aug Deliveries Demolitions New Orders Deliveries Demolitions New Orders Deliveries Demolitions New Orders VLOC Capesize Post-Panamax Panamax Supramax Handysize Total In million dwt Aug 2018 Jan-Aug Deliveries Demolitions New Orders Deliveries Demolitions New Orders Deliveries Demolitions New Orders VLOC Capesize Post-Panamax Panamax Supramax Handysize Total Aug 2018 TC Average NB price 2nd Hand price M-o-M Y-o-Y M-o-M Y-o-Y (USD/day) (USD mln) 5 y.o. (USD mln) M-o-M Y-o-Y Capesize 25, % + 56% % + 12% % + 15% Panamax 11,900-0% + 20% % + 13% % + 13% Supramax 11, % + 30% % + 20% % + 15% Handysize 8,000-3% + 15% % + 17% % + 13% Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 18

19 & network c. s.p.a. banchero costa address: via pammatone, genoa (italy) phone: [5631-1] dry - capesize capespmx@bancosta.com insurance insurance@bancostains.it dry - panamax capespmx@bancosta.com p&i hull@bancostains.it dry - handy handy@bancosta.com ship finance financial@bancosta.com In addition to regular market reports, banchero costa research recognize the need for bespoke reports & analysis, dry - operation dryoper@bancosta.com research research@bancosta.com tankers tanker@bancosta.com agency bcagy@bcagy.it containers containers@bancosta.com yachting yachts@bancosta.it s&p salepurchase@bancosta.com accounting account@bcaccount.it bancosta uk bancosta monaco bancosta sa medioriental london monte carlo geneva dubai phone: phone: phone: phone: info@bancosta.co.uk info@bancosta-monaco.com info@bancosta.ch mena@bancosta.com bancosta oriente bancosta oriente bancosta oriente japan rep.office singapore hong kong beijing tokyo phone: phone: phone: phone: tailored to specific client needs. Reports can be produced on a wide range of shipping markets including dry bulk, tankers, gas & containers. In addition in-depth reports can be produced on specific commodity markets. To discuss individual requirements please contact: Phone: capespmx@bancosta.it research@bancosta.com web site : this report has been prepared by banchero costa research for any enquiries please contact us on or research@bancosta.com bancosta.tokyo@spa.nifty.com Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 19

20 network banchero costa & c. s.p.a. banchero costa head office: via pammatone, genoa (italy) phone: [5631-1] dry - capesize capes@bancosta.com research research@bancosta.com dry - panamax capespmx@bancosta.com ship finance financial@bancosta.com dry - handy handy@bancosta.com insurance insurance@bancostains.it dry - operation dryoper@bancosta.com p&i hull@bancostains.it tankers tanker@bancosta.com yachting yachts@bancosta.it containers containers@bancosta.com agency bcagy@bcagy.it s&p salepurchase@bancosta.com ship repair shipyard@bcagy.it offshore offshore@bancosta.com towage/salvage shipyard@bcagy.it bancosta uk bancosta monaco bancosta sa medioriental london monte carlo geneva dubai phone: phone: phone: phone: info@bancosta.co.uk info@bancosta-monaco.com info@bancosta.ch mena@bancosta.com bancosta oriente bancosta oriente bancosta oriente japan rep.office singapore hong kong beijing tokyo phone: phone: phone: phone: sap@bancosta.com.hk sap@bancosta.com.hk capespmx@bancosta.it bancosta.tokyo@spa.nifty.com web site : Linkedin: linkedin.com/company/banchero-costa Twitter: twitter.com/banchero_costa Legal notice: The information and data contained in this presentation is derived from a variety of sources, own and third party s, public and private, and is provided for information purposes only. Whilst banchero costa has used reasonable efforts to include accurate and up-to-date information in this presentation, banchero costa makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy of any information contained herein or accuracy or reasonableness of conclusions drawn there from. Although some forward-looking statements are made in the report, banchero costa cannot in any way guarantee their accuracy or reasonableness. banchero costa assumes no liabilities or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the content of this report. Sep 2018 Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 20