Maharashtra Rail Infrastructure Development Limited. Pune Nasik Double Line

Transcription

1 Maharashtra Rail Infrastructure Development Limited (MRIDL) Name of the project Pune Nasik Double Line (With electrification) Term of Reference For Traffic Study and Financial Analysis for Green Field Railway Double Line Project with electrification between Pune and Nasik Page 1 of 5

2 Terms of Reference Task 1 Review of existing information: Review of all the reports and data available on the proposed rail corridor. Review of DPR prepared by Central Railway for this project as a single line, starting from Talegaon and going up to Nasik. Review of all reports related to important road connections / regional projects such as Pune Ring Road, 4 / 6 laning of Pune Nashik Road etc. (Note- The proposed double line is to start from existing Pune Railway station (maybe elevated) and to go up to existing Nasik railway station.) Initial review of passenger and freight traffic and revenue forecasts will be based on data extracted from existing sources. The travel demand market analysis will include: existing passenger trips by road and rail; results of available travel surveys and studies; forecasting assumptions including demographic and economic growth, tourism; forecasting procedures; market-by-market reviews, including diversion from road as well as the ability of the upgraded rail link to induce trip making. The principal objective of this segment of the Study is to estimate a base case demand with starting of Railway line from existing Pune railway station and going up to existing Nasik Railway station. Task 2 Review of Existing Travel Facilities: 2.1 This includes detailed analysis and review of the following: a. Delineation of project influence area and this shall extend to about 50km along the proposed route connecting Pune and Nasik; b. Map various transport facilities available in the influence area; c. Review of existing and proposed rail network including new lines, doubling, 3 rd line / 4 th line projects in the adjoining areas, upcoming modern rail transport systems; d. Review of existing road and air connectivity and types of transport facilities available as type of bus, frequency etc. 2.2 Existing Passenger Traffic Potential a. Collection and study of historic traffic movement between Pune and Nasik including the influencing areas along the corridor by road rail air by type of mode and class of travel b. Passenger movement and cost of travel information by type of mode for bus, and class of travel for train and air. c. The information to be collected and analysed for all the competing corridors and modes. d. Consideration of Pune passengers going to Eastern and Northern parts of India via proposed new corridor for catching their trains from Nasik, due to considerable saving in travel time vis-a-vis via existing routes through Kalyan / Daund or by road. 2.3 Socio-Economic Study of the Influence area Consultants shall map the socio-economic profile of the study area (influence area), assess its growth potential. Page 2 of 5

3 Task 3 Primary surveys Primary surveys to fill the gaps in the data where applicable and required. Traffic Volume count surveys on competing road corridors (at select locations) Travel Pattern Study User preference surveys for passengers of rail, road and air including willing to pay and shift O/D surveys at cordon points of all Municipal Corporation / Councils falling along the proposed route Stated Preference surveys on sample basis of passengers using various modes between Pune & Nashik Task 4 Travel demand Forecasting 4.1 Based on the information collected from secondary and primary surveys, consultants shall assess the potential traffic that will use proposed Rail Corridor. Consultants shall map the socio-economic profile of the study area (influence area). Establish relationship (travel demand elasticity) between the influencing parameters and the travel demand. Consultants shall develop suitable travel demand model to consider the effects of select socio-economic parameters, existing traffic demand, user opinion, willingness to pay, travel cost etc. 4.2 Influencing socio-economic parameters shall be projected based on the past trends and future outlook by adopting sound forecasting techniques. Travel demand forecasting shall be carried out for a period of 30 years at 5-year intervals. 4.3 Assess existing passenger traffic demand for the proposed rail corridor with respect to very less travel time of only 2.0 hours instead of existing 4.5 hours (by road) to 6.0 hours by train. 4.4 Sensitivity analysis shall be carried out for different passenger fare levels and assess optimum fare level. Task 5 Goods traffic potential and forecast: 5.1 The Consultant will estimate the volume of freight movements along the proposed rail link based on surveys of existing demand and future growth estimates with special emphasis to new proposed line from Indore - Manmad, Doubling, / 3 rd line /4 th line work between Nasik to Nagpur and considering an alternative route to JNPT bound goods traffic via Nasik-Pune-JNPT, leading to reduction in distance due to this proposed double line, and en -route traffic generation from automobile and other industrial hubs. 5.2 The results will be adjusted for seasonal factors and used in the assessment of the net economic benefits and costs to the community. 5.3 Freight Traffic surveys will be utilised if necessary, based on both regular counts of traffic and special counts, with specific origin/destination interviewing, data collection and other information appropriate to specific local conditions. The Consultant will prepare a forecast of the future normal traffic on the rail alignment based on, but not necessarily limited to: population growth rate; real income per capita; agricultural and industrial growth rates estimated for the area of influence of the rail link; and the sensitivity of traffic in relation to these economic features. Page 3 of 5

4 5.4 This data will be utilised to relate traffic growth to the specific economic activities of the area under consideration. 5.5 Passenger traffic will be projected using the average estimated rate of growth of population and income per capita in the area of influence, and freight will be projected using the average estimated rate of growth of agricultural, industrial and mining production. 5.6 The Consultant will utilise data on the socio-economic profile of the rail corridor. This profile will take into account relevant information such as: Total population in the area of influence, and the annual growth rates; Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its composition (in percent) for the key sectors; Annual primary industry production in metric tons; Registered vehicles by type of vehicle; Quantitative information on key aspects of the transport service operations. 5.7 The profile will also include the information on planned major development projects in the affected areas, including annual expected production in volume and Type of establishment / Facility. 5.8 Diversion of freight traffic from road to rail and from existing rail lines to new line will also be studied and assessed. Task 6 Economic and Financial Viability Assessment as part of the Detailed Project Report 6.1 EIRR i) Consultants are required to identify & factor major items under Economic benefits. EIRR should be calculated taking into consideration the socioeconomic benefits to be accrued to the society. ii) The benefit of reduction in road accidents, reduction in fuel consumption, reduction in route congestion, saving in vehicle cost, reduction in pollution, carbon credit, saving in green house gas emission, job creation, and qualitative benefits to be accounted for in computation of EIRR. Consultant should also look into the concept of developing en-route new railway stations as multi-modal passenger hubs with bus terminus for attracting more passenger traffic. 6.2 FIRR Estimation of revenue streams for the project, comprising, besides fare revenue (passenger), other streams such as Advertising rights at Stations, Rentals from Commercial shops etc. Prepare detailed Revenue model considering/comparing various participative models in railways authorized by Indian Railways such as Non-Government Railway (NGR) Model, Joint Venture Model, public private partnership (PPP) Model etc. and work out the most sustainable participative model for this project. The revenue model shall include cost of project, means of finance, profitability, projected balance sheet, cash flow, statement of working capital, Cost of Capital etc. Consultants are required to establish the framework for financial evaluation that would be used in the formulating of a long term strategy and a phased investment program. The framework should allow the financial feasibility to be expressed in terms of expected Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Average Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR). Page 4 of 5

5 If at all the said project is financially unviable by way of public private partnership, determine the amount of viability gap funds that would be required to make the project a viable one. While assessing the project from viability gap, consultant should consider the provisions of viability gap fund scheme of Government of India as well as Maharashtra State Government Scheme, if any. 6.3 Alternatives for improving the FIRR of the proposed project. Consultants are required to work out annual cash inflow to MRIDL by levying a proposed cess of say 10% on the Stamp Duty received by Government of Maharashtra from the sale / purchase / lease /leave and licence of residential, commercial and industrial properties in the towns en-route in the proposed rail corridor except Pune and Nasik for repayment of debt. In Pune and Nasik Municipalities, the area for the computation of the proposed cess is to be limited to 1 Km on either side of new proposed line. The cess collection need to start from the date of start of the project and can be considered for 15 years period. To work out the proposed cess, the consultants are required to collect the information on the annual collection of Stamp Duty for the respective municipal corporations for past 5 to 10 years of the en-route towns where new railway stations will be coming up i.e. Chakan, Rajgurunagar, Thakarwadi, Kalamb, Alephata, Bota, Garegaon, Pemgiri, Sangamner, Nimgaon, Nandur Singote, Sinner, Jaigaon. Based on the collected information the expected cess collection need to be worked out by extrapolating for future 15 years. The consultants should also explore the requirement of private sidings taking off from the proposed new line and willingness of equity / debt participation from the prospective siding owners. Consultants should also explore the requirement of goods terminals for PSUs/Private Industrial houses at en-route stations and willingness of equity / debt participation from them. 6.4 Consultants are required to conduct risk analysis also and give full details in the DPR. (Note - The project cost, maintenance cost, construction period, annual requirement of fund during construction will be provided to the consultant by MRIDL at appropriate time for working out EIRR and FIRR.) Draft reports will be supplied in 02 hard copies and a soft copy. Final report after approval will be supplied in 15 hard copies and 01 soft copy. Sufficient number of photos and video clips of the traffic survey activities is also required to be submitted along with the report. Rajesh Kumar Jaiswal MANAGING DIRECTOR (MRIDL) Page 5 of 5