NORTHEAST SYRIA: KEY DEVELOPMENTS AND OVERVIEW

Transcription

1 SYRIA MARKET MONITORING EXERCISE Cash-Based Responses Technical Working Group Snapshot: 1-24 July 18 INTRODUCTION KEY DEVELOPMENTS To inform humanitarian cash programming, REACH and the Cash-Based Responses Technical Working Group (CBR-TWG) conduct ly market monitoring throughout Syria to assess the availability and prices of 3 basic commodities that are typically sold in markets and consumed by average Syrian households, including food and non-food items, water, fuel, and cellphone data. Of these, 18 items comprise the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB), see below, which represents the minimum culturally adjusted items required to support a -person household for a. Data was collected this by ACTED, CARE, Shafak, Concern, DCA, GOAL, Ihsan, IRC, Mercy Corps, People in Need, REACH, Solidarités International, Violet, and Watan. Datasets are available on the REACH Resource Centre, the Humanitarian Data Ex, and are also distributed through partners across the humanitarian community. SURVIVAL MINIMUM EXPENDITURE BASKET (SMEB) CONTENTS Item Food Items Bread Bulgur Chicken Eggs Fresh vegetables Ghee/vegetable oil Red lentils Rice Salt Sugar Tomato paste Hygiene Bathing soap items Laundry/dish soap Sanitary pads Toothpaste Fuel Cooking fuel* Water Water trucking Telecom Smartphone data Other Float (other costs)** Quantity 37 kg 15 kg kg kg 12 kg 7 kg/l 15 kg 19 kg 1 kg 5 kg kg 12 bars 3 kg 4 packs of 10 0 g 25 L 4 L 1 GB 7.5% total value * Kerosene in northern Syria; LP Gas in southern Syria ** Float only applied to observations where prices of all SMEB contents could be collected North Syria: Dollar ex rate fluctuations In northwest Syria the US Dollar to Syrian Pound (SYP) ex rate fell for the fourth consecutive and the median SMEB cost for the northwest has continued to decrease. However, the ex rate has remained relatively stable in northeast Syria and the median complete SMEB cost has remained at 0%. Northwest: SMEB food prices decrease SMEB food prices have decreased in northwest Syria, with sub-districts including Qourqeena which reported decreases in price of 1%. The s in median food prices are thought to be due to the distribution of food baskets increasing supplies and changing food demands, throughout the northwest in the previous. North Syria: Transport fuel increase The median transport fuel costs saw a slight increase between June and July, at 1% in northwest Syria and 7% in northeast Syria. Since February 18 the price for fuel in northeast Syria has increased by 5%, to 159 SYP. Fuel prices are often influenced by s in road taxes and re-opening of road in Idleb may further influence the s in price. Northeast: Lentil prices increase In nine of 17 sub-districts in northeast Syria, the price of lentils has increased since June 18. The biggest price increases were 43% and 50%, reported in and respectively. After a harvest, farmers often store their crops in warehouses until availability decreases and therefore prices increase. ASSESSED AREAS AND COVERAGE Northwest QUNEITRA DAR'A AS-SWEIDA 59, 47SYP (1.54 USD) NORTHEAST SYRIA -, AL-RAQQA, & EASTERN ALEPPO GOVERNORATES MEDIAN SMEB COSTS, BY MONTH & DEIR-EZ-ZOR HOMS RURAL DAMASCUS NORTHWEST SYRIA - IDLEB, LATTAKIA, HAMA, HOMS & WESTERN ALEPPO GOVERNORATES HAMA TARTOUS DAMASCUS 53,354 SYP ( USD) ALEPPO LATTAKIA Round 1 fact sheet: July 18 Round 3 fact sheet: 1-19 July 18 MEDIAN SMEB COST IN SYP (USD), BY Northeast IDLEB South: Coverage s Coverage in south Syria for this monitoring exercise has been limited so this of Market Monitoring is only focusing on northwest and northeast Syria. Depending on how the situation in the south develops, Market Monitoring may resume. Recent updates on markets in the south can be seen in the three REACH rapid market assessments which included two fact sheets and three datasets: South 75 COVERAGE 8 COMMUNITIES 48 7 GOVERNORATES Assessed sub-district with complete SMEB data collection Assessed sub-district with SMEB data collection missing items (see regional sections) Assessed sub-district with complete SMEB data collection, no water trucking* not assessed *Water trucking not used in sub-district 70 Northwest Northeast

2 NORTHEAST SYRIA: KEY DEVELOPMENTS AND OVERVIEW KEY DEVELOPMENTS Median SMEB cost decline halts After the median regional SMEB cost has declined for six consecutive s since December 17, it has now paused at 59,47 SYP. SMEB costs that do not include water prices have decreased by 1% since June 18. Lentil prices increase The price of lentils has increased since June 18 in 9 of 17 sub-districts. The biggest price increases were 43% and 50%, reported in and Tell MEDIAN SMEB COST RANGES (SYP), BY SUB-DISTRICT Closed Open Sporadically Open WITH INCOMPLETE SMEBS IN JULY SUB-DISTRICT All sub-districts had complete SMEBs MISSING ITEMS Note: A lack of data for a SMEB item does not imply a shortage Abiad respectively. After a harvest, farmers often store their crops in warehouses until availability decreases and therefore prices increase. Transport fuel prices increase Transport fuel prices have increased by a median of 7% since last and by 5% since February 18. Al-Thawrah and have the highest prices of fuel per litre at 225 SYP. Although Be r Al-Hulo remains one of the lowest priced MEDIAN SMEB COSTS SANS WATER, BY MONTH sub-districts, there was a reported price increase of 29%. Cooking fuel prices increase Cooking fuel prices have increased by a median of 25%, to 3,125 SYP, since June 18. Ya robiyah and Tal Tamer reported the largest median increases of 3% and 88%, respectively SMEB Cost ,000 SYP or less 50,001 to 0,000 SYP 0,001 to 70,000 SYP 70,001 to 80,000 SYP 80,001 SYP or more SMEB incomplete No water trucking EXCHANGE RATES, BY MONTH & CURRENCY USD/SYP TRY/SYP 18 0 MEDIAN SMEB COSTS & CHANGES Syrian Pounds Northeast Syria Complete Northeast Syria Non-Water Trucking SMEB 59, % -5.3% 55,474-1.% -4.5% 57, % -2.2% * 57, % +0.5% * 52, % -.8% Al-Thawrah* 55,04 +1.% NA 1, % -4.2% 51, % -10.3% 2, % -4.4% * 45, % -25.0% * 52, % NA Lower Shyookh NA NA NA 55, % -10.7% Qahtaniyyeh* 57,15-7.2% -.0% Quamishli* 53, % -3.5% Sarin NA NA NA * 55, % -5.5% * 5, % -5.3% Tal Tamer* 0,89 NA NA * 49, % -1.8% Ya'robiyah* 58, % -0.% * Denotes sub-districts where water trucking is not common, and therefore does not have water trucking prices in the SMEB cost Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 1-24 July 18 2

3 NORTHEAST SYRIA: SMEB FOOD ITEMS & SMEB COOKING FUEL MEDIAN SMEB FOOD ITEMS See Page 1, Syrian Pounds MEDIAN SMEB COOKING FUEL Kerosene 25L, Syrian Pounds MEDIAN SMEB FOOD COSTS, BY MONTH SM,EB Food Items SMEB Cooking Fuel 50 Northeast Syria 40,700-1% -7% Northeast Syria 3, % 12% 34,19-14% -17% * 48,150 +9% +9% 2, % +5% * 3, % -17% 45 * 38,507 +2% -12% * 3,750 0% -14% Al-Thawrah* 41,385 +1% +2% Al-Thawrah* 3,125 +5% -17% 43,571 0% +% 39,340 0% -11% 3, % + 11% 3,000 +9% -% 40 41,813 -% -2% 3, % 0% * 37,37 +8% NA * 38,307-4% -8% 39,33 0% -11% Qahtaniyyeh* 37,329-4% -17% Quamishli* 41,025 +3% -11% * 40,700-3% -% * 40,20 -% -9% Tal Tamer* 45,750-5% +5% * 45, % 0% Ya'robiyah* 4,805 +3% +5% * 2, 0% NA * 3,25 +45% +1% 2,750 0% +10% Qahtaniyyeh* 5,000 0% +% Quamishli* 3,250-5% +24% * 3,000 +% -4% * 3, % +50% Tal Tamer* 4,03 +3% +30% * 2, 0% -50% Ya'robiyah* 3, % +7% MEDIAN SMEB COOKING FUEL COSTS, BY MONTH Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 1-24 July 18

4 NORTHEAST SYRIA: SMEB FOOD ITEMS & SMEB COOKING FUEL SMEB FOOD ITEMS s & communities, Syrian Pounds Quamishli Yarobiyah Tal Tamer Qahtaniyyeh SMEB Cost: Food Items Closed Sporadically Open Open 37,000 SYP or less 37,001 to 40,000 SYP 40,001 to 43,000 SYP 43,001 to 4,000 SYP 4,001 SYP or greater Price not available SMEB COOKING FUEL s & Communities, Syrian Pounds Quamishli Tal Tamer SMEB Cost: Cooking Fuel Al-Thawrah Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 1-24 July 18 Yarobiyah Qahtaniyyeh Closed Open Sporadically Open 2, SYP or less 2,501 to 4,000 SYP 4,001 to 5, SYP 5,501 to 7,000 SYP 7,001 SYP or greater Price not available 4

5 NORTHEAST SYRIA: SMEB WATER TRUCKING & TRANSPORT FUEL MEDIAN SMEB WATER TRUCKING 4,L, Syrian Pounds MEDIAN TRANSPORT FUEL PRICE Diesel and Petrol 1L (Government of Syria and Manually Refined), Syrian Pounds MEDIAN SMEB WATER TRUCKING COSTS, BY MONTH SMEB Water Truck Diesel and Petrol Northeast Syria 3,015 +5% +34% Northeast Syria 15 +7% +5% 9 2,025-2% -10% * NA NA NA 174 0% +2% * 92 +4% +4% * NA NA NA Al-Thawrah* 1,1250 NA NA 2, % 0% * 15 +% +5% Al-Thawrah* % +3% 175 7% +27% NA NA NA 4,095 0% NA % +51% 125-1% -1% 3 * NA NA NA * NA NA NA 3,015 0% -% Qahtaniyyeh* NA NA NA Quamishli* NA NA NA * NA NA NA * NA NA NA Tal Tamer* NA NA NA * NA NA NA Ya'robiyah* NA NA NA * % NA * % +1% 19-1% +219% Qahtaniyyeh* % +124% Quamishli* 1-3% +109% * 225-1% +57% * % +23% Tal Tamer* % -38% * 12-51% +% Ya'robiyah* 117-7% +17% TRANSPORT FUEL COSTS, BY MONTH & TYPE MANUALLY REFINED PETROL * Denotes sub-districts where water trucking is not common, and therefore does not have water trucking prices 0 MANUALLY REFINED DIESEL GoS REFINED PETROL GoS REFINED DIESEL Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 1-24 July 18

6 NORTHEAST SYRIA: SMEB WATER TRUCKING & TRANSPORT FUEL SMEB WATER TRUCKING s & communities, Syrian Pounds Tal Tamer Yarobiyah SMEB Cost: Water Quamishli Qahtaniyyeh Al-Thawrah 1, SYP or less Closed Open Sporadically Open 1,501 to 2,000 SYP 2,001 to 2, SYP 2,501 to 3,000 SYP 3,001 SYP or greater No water trucking TRANSPORT FUEL s & communities, Syrian Pounds Quamishli Tal Tamer SMEB Cost: Transport Fuel Al-Thawrah Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 1-24 July 18 Yarobiyah Qahtaniyyeh Closed Open Sporadically Open 150 SYP or less 151 to 0 SYP 1 to 250 SYP 251 to SYP 301 SYP or greater Price not available

7 NORTHEAST SYRIA: HYGIENE ITEMS & CELLPHONE DATA MEDIAN SMEB HYGIENE ITEMS 12 bars soap, 4 packs of 10 sanitary pads, 0g toothpaste, Syrian Pounds MEDIAN SMEB CELLPHONE DATA 1GB data, Syrian Pound MEDIAN SMEB HYGIENE ITEMS COSTS, BY MONTH S,MEB Hygiene items S,MEB Phone Data 7 Northeast Syria 5,131-5% -3% Northeast Syria 2, +25% +0% 5,397-4% +% * 5,0 0% -% 2, -10% -15% * 2,000 +3% 0% * 4, % -4% Al-Thawrah* 3,07-34% -5% 4,930-14% -7% * 3,25 +21% -31% Al-Thawrah* 4,000 0% -14% 3,413 +1% -58% 5 5, % -% 1,0 0% -33% 4 4,78-13% -2% * 4,232-4% NA * 3,070 +1% -3% 3, -4% -9% Qahtaniyyeh* 5, % +3% Quamishli* 4,971 -% -4% * 4,11-13% -11% * 5,480 -% +% Tal Tamer* 5, % +2% * 5, % -3% Ya'robiyah* 5,50-2% +2% 1, -25% -55% * 4,000 % NA * 3,350-1% -27% 2,11 +5% +4% Qahtaniyyeh* 5,000 0% 0% Quamishli* 1,00 +3% +7% * 1, 0% -40% * 1, +8% -13% Tal Tamer* 1, 0% 0% * 3,000 +% -% Ya'robiyah* 1,225-2% -32% 3 MEDIAN SMEB CELLPHONE DATA COSTS, BY MONTH Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 1-24 July 18

8 NORTHEAST SYRIA: SMEB HYGIENE ITEMS & CELLPHONE DATA SMEB HYGIENE ITEMS s & Communities, Syrian Pounds Quamishli Tal Tamer SMEB Cost: Hygiene Yarobiyah Qahtaniyyeh 3,000 SYP or less Closed Open Sporadically Open Al-Thawrah 3,001 to 4,000 SYP 4,001 to 5,000 SYP 5,001 to,000 SYP,001 SYP or greater Price not available SMEB CELLPHONE DATA s & Communities, Syrian Pounds Quamishli Tal Tamer SMEB Cost: Data Al-Thawrah Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 1-24 July 18 Yarobiyah Qahtaniyyeh Closed Open Sporadically Open 1,000 SYP or less 1,001 to 1, SYP 1,501 to 2,000 SYP 2,001 to 2, SYP 2,501 SYP or greater Price not available 8

9 NORTHEAST SYRIA: DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRICES ASSESSED FOOD ITEMS Syrian Pounds CELLPHONE DATA 1GB WATER TRUCKING Syrian Pounds Eggs (30 eggs) Chicken Ghee 350 Vegetable Oil 225 Rice 400 Tomato Paste Red Lentils Sugar Bulgur Milk Flour Potatoes Tomatoes 250 Cucumbers Bread (8 slices) Onions Salt ( g) Cellphone data (1GB) Water Trucking (1L) ASSESSED FUEL ITEMS Syrian Pounds ASSESSED HYGIENE ITEMS Syrian Pounds 1 1 READING BOXPLOTS Maximum price in dataset GoS Petrol 225 Manually Refined Petrol Manually Refined Kerosene LP Gas Manually Refined Diesel GoS Diesel Laundry Powder Dishwashing Liquid Toothpaste ( g) Sanitary Pads (1 Pack) 0 40 Bathing Soap (1 bar) Example Commodity (1 unit) Upper quartile: 25% of data is above this point Median price in dataset Lower quartile: 25% of data is below this point Minimum price in dataset 9 Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 1-24 July 18

10 APPENDIX AND METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGY To be included in the Syria Market Monitoring Exercise, markets must be permanent in nature, large enough to support at least two wholesalers, and diverse enough to provide a sufficient variety of goods and commodities. The shops surveyed within each market must be housed in permanent structures and must sell certain items to be eligible for inclusion. Participating organisations train their enumerators on the Market Monitoring methodology and data collection tools using standard training materials developed by REACH. Each enumerator aims to assess three to five shops of each type in the main market in their assigned sub-district, using surveys to collect information about prices, current product inventory and the time needed to replace current stocks. In sub-districts where direct surveying by enumerators is not possible, such as Lattakia and Deir-ez-Zor, data collection is conducted remotely through key informants such as shop owners, suppliers and consumers. A survey form is deployed on KoBo each to capture price and stock information from different types of establishments, including grocery stores, fuel traders, currency ex shops, water trucking services and mobile phone shops, among others. Nearly all participating partners submit their data to these KoBo forms, using the KoBoCollect Android app to upload data. A small number of partners, by prior permission, collect data using fully harmonised data collection tools deployed on other platforms, then submit their raw data to REACH for standardisation, compilation and cleaning. Following data collection, REACH compiles and cleans all partners data, normalising prices and cross-checking outliers. The cleaned data is then analysed by SMEB costs, components of the SMEB, and by commodities. These trends are observed at the sub-district-level and, when possible, at the community-level. Prices are divided into quartiles and boxplots are created to help CBR TWG members understand the distribution of prices. To illustrate local variations in prices and availability, REACH uses the collected data to map the price of an SMEB in each sub-district and adds illustrations of surrounding border crossings, with data sourced from OCHA. In addition, each SMEB component costs and transport fuel prices are graphed to visualize trends over time. The cleaned data sets are available on the REACH Resource Centre and are distributed to all participating partners, as well as to interested clusters and the broader humanitarian community. CHALLENGES AND LIMITATIONS As the Syria Market Monitoring Exercise currently includes 13 partners based in 2 hubs, achieving a consistent approach is inherently challenging. Participating organisations are therefore requested to adopt harmonised data collection methodologies and tools to ensure that the data uploaded is as accurate as possible. Confirming commodity shortages in certain communities was difficult due to a lack of information about general market availability. When follow-ups were unable to confirm these shortages, this is stated in the text. Because this exercise collects data directly from vendors and because it relies on partner organizations for its wide coverage, the exercise may lose coverage sporadically or for longer periods of time owing to challenges in accessing locations or due to loss in the shared data collection capacity of the project. This impacts the ability to report on trends, as can be seen in the line graphs and NA values in the tables. CHANGES TO COVERAGE Given security and access constraints in the south of Syria, data collection was unable to take place for the July Market Monitoring situation overview. Due to access issues and an escalation of conflict, coverage was lost in Eastern Ghouta in March 18. CALCULATING MEDIAN CHEAPEST PRICE This figure is calculated by taking the median of the minimum-reported prices of a region s sub-districts. In turn, the minimum-reported prices for each sub-district were taken from the median of the minimum-reported prices of the constituent towns assessed. CALCULATING SURVIVAL MINIMUM EXPENDITURE BASKET (SMEB) COSTS The cost of a SMEB is calculated for each assessed sub-districts by calculating the median cheapest price of each SMEB commodity in that sub-district, then multiplying these medians by the number of units that an average Syrian household requires to purchase in a. The composition of the SMEB can be found on page 1 and SMEB vegetables includes potatoes, tomatoes, onions and cucumbers. WHAT IS THE? The Cash-Based Responses Technical Working Group (CBR TWG) was established in May 14 to analyse the impact of the ongoing conflict on markets in Syria and guide the implementation of humanitarian cash and voucher programmes within those markets. REACH and the CBR TWG have been partners on the Syria Market Monitoring Exercise since early 15. Since February 17, the exercise expanded coverage into the south, bringing ly market assessments to communities in Damascus, Rural Damascus, Dar a and Quneitra governorates. However, we have since lost coverage in the south of Syria. ABOUT REACH REACH is a joint initiative of two international nongovernmental organizations ACTED and IMPACT Initiatives and the UN Operational Satellite Applications Programme (UNOSAT). REACH facilitates the development of information tools and products that enhance the capacity of aid actors to make evidence-based decisions in emergency, recovery and development contexts. By doing so, REACH contributes to ensuring that communities affected by emergencies receive the support they need. All REACH activities are conducted in support to and within the framework of inter-agency aid coordination mechanisms. For more information, please visit our website at contact us directly at geneva@reach-initiative.org or follow us on Twitter Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 1-24 July 18 10