Swissmod: A model of the Swiss electricity market. Ingmar Schlecht, Hannes Weigt , SimLab Workshop, Zürich

Transcription

1 Swissmod: A model of the Swiss electricity market Ingmar Schlecht, Hannes Weigt , SimLab Workshop, Zürich

2 A grassroots initiative of 50+ modellers across Europe We want to promote the idea of open-source and open-data modelling in energy research and energy policy advisory. Power market models, grid models, energy system models, fuel market models Founded in Sep 2014 three biannual workshops since then

3 Swissmod Transmission System Model: - ca. 230 nodes (150 in Switzerland) - ca. 400 lines Neighboring countries included in simplified representation Swissmod based on DC-Load-Flow Approach, basic design as costminimization or welfare maximization model for classical scenario analyses - 3 -

4 Model Structure Node Balance Line Flow Capacity Restrictions Classical dispatch model: - Welfare maximization (QP) - Perfect foresight, dispatch model - DC-Load flow, node balance, capacity restrictions - Detailed hydro representation - GAMS / cplex for optimization - 4 -

5 Further constraints Capacity Restrictions Water Storage Balance Inflow/Outflow Definitions - 5 -

6 Model calibration Basis run calibrated for 2012: - Demand based on ENTSO-E data (scaled to match yearly values) for Switzerland disaggregated to cantons by number of households and GDP - Power plant availability for nuclear and lignite fixed to observed values (assumption: base-load) - Country specific fuel prices, used for calibration - RES in-feed time series based on country-level weather data - 6 -

7 Calibration: Power plant dispatch EU power plant dispatch endogenously defined: Especially CHP hard to model due to lack of data (especially DE&AT) Basic dispatch pattern similar to observations Storage pattern similar to average trend - 7 -

8 Calibration: Grid congestion Line capacities are capped at 75% (to approximate n-1 criterion) High line load especially between Switzerland and Italy - 8 -

9 Research questions Nodal prices Scenarios Investment scenarios - 9 -

10 Research questions Nodal prices Schlecht & Weigt (2014) includes a map of underlying (economic) nodal prices for Switzerland. Scenarios Investment scenarios

11 Research questions Nodal prices Schlecht & Weigt 2015 analyse the role of the Swiss transmission grid until Scenarios Summer pumping patterns until 2050 Investment scenarios

12 Research questions Nodal prices Schillinger, Schlecht & Weigt 2015, analyse a Swiss Electricity autarky and estimate costs to be expected from such a policy. Scenarios Investment scenarios

13 Technical aspects

14 Technical aspects Data handling in Swissmod Data Sources Data Processing Scripts Database GAMS min

15 Technical aspects Data handling in Swissmod Data Sources Data Processing Scripts Data.xlsx Database GAMS min

16 Technical Aspects Git Version Control Everything is version-controlled in Git repositories to keep track of changes GAMS min Data Processing Scripts LaTeX \begin{eq}

17 Git Version Control Full history of GAMS code, LaTeX text and GIS database Branches for derivative work Line by line outline of changes

18 Conclusion Swissmod: - based on DC-Load-Flow Approach - basic design as cost-minimization or welfare maximization model - suited for classical scenario analyses Technical aspects: - Databases + GIS systems are a sound foundation for electricity modelling - For some things, Excel remains a handy tool - Git is excellent for version control of code and other text based resources

19 Kontakt und Fragen: Ingmar Schlecht Hannes Weigt Forschungsstelle Nachhaltige Energie- und Wasserversorgung Universität Basel