T.Col. GArn Rubino Ing. Carlo

Transcription

1 MINISTERO DELLA DIFESA DGAA DIREZIONE GENERALE DEGLI ARMAMENTI AERONAUTICI Air Armaments General Directorate T.Col. GArn Rubino Ing. Carlo Warsaw, July 6 th,

2 PRESENTATION OUTLINE SCOPE Describing the regulatory framework that allows Italian MoD to operate Military UAVs over national territory and providing the Forum with the Italian lesson learned. 2

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE SAFETY REQUIREMENTS - THE FUTURE 3

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE SAFETY REQUIREMENTS - THE FUTURE 4

5 NATIONAL REGULATION D.Lgs. del MILITARY AIRCRAFT (UAVs INCLUDED) IT MOD WEIGHT UAV CLASSES DGAA W < 2 kg MICRO 2 <W< 20 kg MINI 20 <W <150 kg LIGHT 150 <W <500 kg TUAV 500 <W <2720 kg W > 2720 kg SUAV NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENT GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE - UNCLASSIFIED - 5

6 NATIONAL REGULATION MILITARY UAVS OPERATION IN ITALY Military UAVs operations are allowed over the Italian territory, within selected areas and corridors, in order to comply with the current defence operational requirements. NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE - UNCLASSIFIED - 6

7 NATIONAL REGULATION DPR July 17, 2004 ENAC + ENAV DTO Definition of ATM Procedures 03 AMI Operative Areas Definition DGAA Airworthiness assessment (Safety Analysis) AER.P-6 AER.P-2 They are regularly updated to include lessons learned from national and international experiences 8

8 NATIONAL REGULATION Today IT operate UAVs which are not fully compliant with safety requirements set by DGAA (e.g. Sense&Avoid Capabilities) MITIGATION FACTORS 1.Population Density Restrictions 2.Mission Safety Evaluation 3.Segregated Areas identified in accordance with Civil NAA NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE - UNCLASSIFIED - 9

9 TABLE OF CONTENTS NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE SAFETY REQUIREMENTS - THE FUTURE 10

10 UAV SAFETY REQUIREMENTS DGAA is carrying out a proper updating to its airworthiness requirements regulations in the contract (AER.P-6) and certification activities (AER.P-2), concerning UAVs aspects Lessons Learned from using previous versions of the regulations Rationale produced by DGAA specialists in FINAS teams NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE - UNCLASSIFIED - 11

11 UAV SAFETY REQUIREMENTS FAILURE CONDITION SEVERITY (STANAG 4671 Ed 2) CATEGORY CATASTROPHIC [=UNCONTROLLED FLIGHT or DEATH] HAZARDOUS [=UAV LOSS WITHOUT ANY FATALITY] AER.P-6 DEFINITION FOR UAV (=STANAG 4671 Ed 2) Failure conditions that are expected to result in at least uncontrolled flight (including flight outside of pre-planned or contingency flight profiles/areas) and/or uncontrolled crash, or Failure conditions which may result in a fatality to UAV crew or ground staff. Failure conditions that either by themselves or in conjunction with increased crew workload, are expected to result in a controlled-trajectory termination or forced landing potentially leading to the loss of the UAV where it can be reasonably expected that a fatality will not occur. or Failure conditions for which it can reasonably expected that a fatality to UAV crew or ground staff will not occur 12

12 SAFETY REQUIREMENTS SAFETY REQUIREMENTS It is the result of the trade off activity among different needs: to develop new UAV technology to take into account technological constraints to protect overflown people NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE - UNCLASSIFIED - 13

13 AIRWORTHINESS REQUIREMENTS CIVIL REQUIREMENTs At the moment there are NO specific airworthiness requirements (CS, FAR) for UAVs There are Policy Statements issued to address UAV Certification (e.g. E.Y01301 mentioning STANAG 4671) Working groups activated MILITARY REQUIREMENTs NATO countries have been working for several years to develop a complete regulatory framework to fly UAV in non-segregated airspace (FINAS) STANAG 4671 Ed2 (Fixed wing >150kg) Ratified STANAG 4702 (Rotary wing) - Ready for ratification by end 2011 STANAG 4703 (Fixed wing <150kg) Ready for ratification NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE 14

14 POPULATION DENSITY RESTRICTION 3 SCENARIOS ARE IDENTIFIED METHOD TO CALCULATE THE POPULATION DENSITY RESTRICTION (ref. FAA AC ) I. NON TERMINAL PHASES OF THE FLIGHT CRUISE LOSS OF THE UAV WITH ACTIVATION OF THE PARACHUTE (ALMOST VERTICAL DESCENT WITH LOW KINETIC ENERGY AT THE IMPACT) II. NON TERMINAL PHASES OF THE FLIGHT CRUISE LOSS OF THE UAV AT HIGH SPEED (DESCENT WITH HIGH KINETIC ENERGY AT THE IMPACT) III. INITIAL/TERMINAL PHASES OF THE FLIGHT TAKEOFF/LANDING/CLIMB/APPROACH: LOSS OF THE UAV AT LOW SPEED (DESCENT WITH MEDIUM KINETIC ENERGY AT THE IMPACT) NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE - UNCLASSIFIED - 15

15 POPULATION DENSITY RESTRICTION DP P P CUM CAT scenery 1 A1 Pscenery 2 A2 Pscenery 3 A3 P P P scenario-1 scenario-2 scenario-3 P P P loss-uav loss-uav loss-uav 1 Pfailure parachute 1 T% Exposure Time flight terminal-phases Pfailure parachute 1 T% Exposure Time flight terminal-phases T % Exposure Time flight terminal-phases Impact Area 1.82 m h L m Rp= m DEBRIS AREA NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE - UNCLASSIFIED - 16

16 EFFECT ON COSTS Is it better to procure a HALE UAV around 4000 kg with 1E-5 or 1E-6 / fh probability of catastrophic event? COST SAVINGs due to a lower crash rate could be considered when fixing the level of safety? 1E-5 or 1E-6? It is possible to statistically foresee the number of crashes and the ground fatalities to determine the cost benefit of increasing in safety MoD procure UAVs to fly them and NOT to loose NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE - UNCLASSIFIED - 17

17 COSTS EVALUATION MTOW [kg] 4500 length [m] 11,0 span [m] 20,1 max speed [kts] 240 max altitude [kft] 50 in-service life [h] cost per UAV 1E-5 [m$] 10 cost per UAV 1E-6 [m$] 20 cost per human life [m$] 6 Conservatively we assume that an order of magnitude in safety doubles costs of each UAV Worldwide fleet dimension [# of UAV] Over-flown average population density [inh/km2] (in IT this is 180) Average cost of human life from different US sources NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE - UNCLASSIFIED - 18

18 p(x) = probability of loosing #x lives p(x) = probability of loosing #x UAVs COSTS EVALUATION an example 25% 20% 1E-6 5 UAVs with 82% C.L. 1,00E-05 1,00E-06 UAVs 15% 10% 5% 0% x = number of UAVs 1E-5 42 UAVs with 80% C.L. 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 1E-6 2 LIVEs with 92% C.L. 1,00E-05 1,00E-06 LIVEs 15% 10% 5% 1E-5 14 LIVEs with 91% C.L. 0% x = number of people NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE - UNCLASSIFIED - 19

19 COSTS EVALUATION an example Safety Requirement 1,00E-05 COST for UAVs losses [m$] 420 COST for LIVEs losses [m$] 84 TOTAL COST DUE TO CATASTROPHIC FAILUREs [m$] 504 Safety Requirement 1,00E-06 COST for UAVs losses [m$] 100 COST for LIVEs losses [m$] 12 TOTAL COST DUE TO CATASTROPHIC FAILUREs [m$] =392 AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE IN SAFETY (FROM 1E-5 TO 1E-6) COSTS LESS THAN THE CUMULATIVE COST OF CATASTROPHIC EVENTS NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE - UNCLASSIFIED - 20

20 TABLE OF CONTENTS NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE SAFETY REQUIREMENTS - THE FUTURE 21

21 GEOGRAPHICAL MISSION SAFETY MISSION PHASE EXPOSURE TIME Mission phase exposure time is introduced to allow the UAV system to fly over an higher populated area for a limited period of time P catastr mission Pi Ai DPi T% i i NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE - UNCLASSIFIED - 22

22 UAV GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE 23

23 UAV GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE 24

24 UAV GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE TAKEOFF TAKE OFF Exp.Time=0,51% DP=0 25

25 UAV GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE CLIMB CLIMB Exp.Time=0,77% DP=13 26

26 TRANSFER 1 UAV GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE OPERATIONAL AREA Exp.Time=87,55% DP=4 TRANSFER 2 TRANSFER 1 Exp.Time=5,20% DP=22 TRANSFER 2 Exp.Time=4,39% DP=22 27

27 UAV GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE DESCENT DESCENT Exp.Time=1,06% DP=13 28

28 UAV GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE LANDING LANDING Exp.Time=0,51% DP=0 29

29 UAV GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE 30

30 TABLE OF CONTENTS NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE SAFETY REQUIREMENTS - THE FUTURE 31

31 UAV SAFETY REQUIREMENTS DGAA is carrying out a proper updating to its airworthiness requirements regulations in the contract (AER.P-6) and certification activities (AER.P-2), concerning UAVs aspects Lessons Learned from using previous versions of the regulations Rationale produced by DGAA specialists in FINAS teams NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE - UNCLASSIFIED - 32

32 Cumulative Probability Catastrophic [/flh] UAV SAFETY REQUIREMENTS CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY OF CATASTROPHIC EVENT 1,E-03 0, ,E-04 1,E-05 1,E-06 (15;1E-4) 0,0015 / MTOW (750;1E-5) (150;1E-5) 0,0813 / (MTOW) 1,36 (4000;1E-6) This curve is not based on arbitrary assumptions, but it is derived from correlation of total UAV energy and fuel capacity with weight This smooth curve is better than a step function, 1 kg increase doesn t imply an order of magnitude in safety 1,E-07 MICRO MINI LIGHT TACTICAL STRATEGIC Maximum Take-Off Weight [kg] 33

33 Cumulative Probability Catastrophic [/flh] UAV SAFETY REQUIREMENTS IN ORDER TO FLY IN ITALY WITHOUT ANY POPULATION DENSITY RESTRICTION, A UAV SHALL COMPLY WITH THIS SAFETY REQUIREMENT 1,E-03 0, ,E-04 (15;1E-4) 1,E-05 1,E-06 0,0015 / MTOW (750;1E-5) (150;1E-5) 0,0813 / (MTOW) 1,36 (4000;1E-6) In case of not compliance, Population Density Restrictions shall be imposed accordingly 1,E-07 MICRO MINI LIGHT TACTICAL STRATEGIC Maximum Take-Off Weight [kg] 34

34 Cumulative Probability Catastrophic [/flh] UAV SAFETY REQUIREMENTS 1,E-03 0, ,E kg 1,E kg Areas of population density limitations 1,E-06 1,E-07 MICRO MINI LIGHT TACTICAL STRATEGIC Maximum Take-Off Weight [kg] 35

35 TABLE OF CONTENTS NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE SAFETY REQUIREMENTS - THE FUTURE 36

36 Italy routinely operates UAVs within a robust regulatory framework UAVs Airworthiness is assessed with STANAG 4671 Ed 2, STANAG 4703 (<150kg); STANAG 4702 (rotorcraft) For a UAV > 4000kg (designed with 1E-5 cumulative probability of catastrophic event) it is demonstrated that huge benefit (in terms of lives and cost) derives from designing UAVs with 1E-6 requirement Italy has a strong reservation against STANAG (safety) requirement, which is 1E-5/fh cumulative probability of catastrophic event from UAVs with MTOW 150 kg up to kg NATIONAL REGULATION SAFETY REQUIREMENTS GEOGRAPHICAL SAFETY CASE - UNCLASSIFIED - 37

37 ITALIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENCE DGAA DIREZIONE GENERALE DEGLI ARMAMENTI AERONAUTICI (AIR ARMAMENTS GENERAL DIRECTORATE) Any Questions? 38