The Impact Of Globalisation On International Maritime Transport Activity: Past Trends And Future Perspectives

Transcription

1 The Impact Of Globalisation On International Maritime Transport Activity: Past Trends And Future Perspectives Sustainable Intermodal Freight Transportation Research (SIFTR) OECD/ITF Global Forum on Sustainable Development: Transport and Environment in a Globalising World Guadalajara, Mexico James J. Corbett, Ph.D. P.E. James J. Winebrake, Ph.D. University i of Delaware Rochester Institute of Technology November 2008 Containership Tanker Bulk Carrier General Cargo Refrigerated Cargo Ro-Ro Passenger 2008 J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 1

2 Overview of Paper and Presentation Maritime shipping and multimodal goods movement Global economic growth coupled with shipping, trade Maritime technology responds to globalization signals Maritime energy use and environmental impacts Energy and power trends Characterizing fleets using activity-based data vs. statistics Taxonomy of maritime shipping i environmental impacts Sustainable intermodal freight transport and shipping 2008 J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 2

3 Maritime Shipping and Goods Movement A tradition off stewardship p and service to society y They that go down to the sea in ships, that do business in great waters; these see the works of the Lord,, and his wonders in the deep. p (Nature) Psalm 107, KJV As by means of water-carriage a more extensive market is opened to every sort of industry, so it is upon the sea-coast, and along navigable rivers, that industry of every kind naturally begins to subdivide and improve, and not till a long time after that those improvements extend themselves to the inland parts of the country. Adam Smith: Phoenicians Age of Sail Coal-fired steam Marine diesel Ships of the 21st Century? J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake

4 Ocean shipping among intermodal transport Global freight transportation system: ocean and coastal routes, inland waterways, railways, roads, and air freight Ocean shipping serves both as a substitute and as a complement for other freight modes 2008 J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake First published in the IMO Study of Greenhouse Gases from Ships (Skjølsvik et al, 2000). 4

5 Mode share comparisons: Cargo demand and CO 2 emissions g 2 Trucking is 40-45% of total work (ton-kilometers) 100,000 10,000 Cargo Volum me (Gtkm) 1, Road Shipping Aviation Rail U.S. Freight EU25 Freight Seaborne Trade 2008 J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake Source : Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2007); Energy Information Administration (2007). Note that units are on log scale 5

6 Unitized cargoes grow faster than bulk cargoes Globalization has encouraged transactions of goods and services in smaller packets delivered d just-in-time ti Metric Tons Carg go Million 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Liquid Bulk Dry Bulk Containerized and Other Cargo Labor advantages and inexpensive transport allow materials on one continent to be shipped to another for intermediate processing, moved to a third continent for assembly, and then delivered to market 2008 J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 6

7 Economy, Transport, Energy are Coupled For every percentage increase in GDP for OECD, there has been ~4% rise in trade over this period 2008 J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 7

8 Relationship between OECD economic growth and growth in exports and imports For every one percentage increase in GDP for OECD, there has been ~4% rise in trade over % 12.0% % Growth in Exports + Imports 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% y = 4.067x R² = % 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% % Growth in GDP 2008 J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 8

9 Economic coupling with goods movement can be directly measured Relationship between cargo shipments and container traffic (TEUs) and GDP as measured in ton-miles for the U.S 2008 J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 9

10 Technology shift during last century 10 Transition by number of ships slower than by tonnage 100,000 90,000 80,000 Steam & Motor Steam Motor Sail & Barges Total 700,000, ,000,000 Steam & Motor Steam Motor Sail & Barges Total 70, ,000,000 Number of Ships 60,000 50,000 40,000 Tons Gro oss 400,000, ,000,000 30, ,000,000 20,000 10, ,000, Number of ships in fleet by vessel technology Gross maritime shipping tonnage by vessel technology Corbett, J.J., Marine Transportation and Energy Use, in Encyclopedia of Energy, edited by C.J. Cleveland, pp , Elesvier Science, San Diego, CA, J.J. Corbett

11 Trends in global fleet cargo capacity Fleet capacity (gross tonnage) increased significantly with globalization Vessel flags have largely l transitioned from OECD nations to others 700,000, ,000,000, 500,000,000 Gross Tons in Fleet 400,000, ,000, ,000,000 World Total OECD Nations OECD with Second Flag Liberia Panama Other Selected Nations 100,000, This is associated with a shift to more international seafaring labor 2008 J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 11

12 Seafaring professions use international labor Qualified seafarers hired according to economic (not residency) criteria nal Sample Perc cent of Natio 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 USA N orway UK Ge rmany Greece Numbe er of Seafarer rs in Sample P U Philip Russia China Croatia Poland kraine ppines India Latvia Own Flag Foreign flag Professionally skilled seafarers across ranks and nationalities remains an issue of international importance to safety and environment 2008 J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 12 Source: Obando-Rojas, B. (2001), The Global Labour Market Study, Cardiff University

13 International marine fuel sales by nation as percent of world bunkers, Nations selling most fuel to ships are typically nations with strong interests in cargoes or services those ships provide Million tonnes fuel World 150, % 167, % 175, % OECD 81,425 54% 91,326 54% 99,140 57% OECD North America 20,873 14% 26,213 16% 27,930 16% United States 19,559 13% 24,828 15% 26,455 15% OECD Europe 47,860 32% 51,442 31% 53,787 31% OECD Pacific 12,692 8% 13,671 8% 17,419 10% Non OECD 69,143 46% 76,408 46% 76,190 43% Singapore 20,809 14% 19,567 12% 25,479 15% (OECD) nations account for roughly half of these fuel sales 2008 J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake Source: International Energy Agency and OECD (2007a) and (2007b) 13

14 Trend in average installed power (kw) for world-wide vessel fleet Switch to more fuel-efficient engines was more than offset by increased engine power requirements to meet rapidly expanding demand for more and faster global trade Index of Fleet av verage Installed Pow wer (1999 = 1) J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 14

15 Activity-based methodology Data confidence higher than fuel sales data only Fleet statistics (Lloyds) Fleet activity (AIS, industry data, other) Fuel and combustion characteristics (BLG 12/6/INF.10, IPCC, etc.) Fleet fuel consumption Fleet emissions Average installed power Average operating time Average engine load Average SFOC Average Carbon content Confidence High Confidence moderate Known variability high Dominates output range Confidence moderate Known variability moderate Second most influential to output range Confidence high Confidence high Some variability due to fuel characteristics 2008 J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 15

16 Fuel consumption growing with global trade 2002 World fleet (including cargo, noncargo, and military vessels) consumed ~280 million tonnes fuel, ~200 million tonnes for cargo ships IMO Informal Cross Government/Industry Scientific Group of Experts estimated 2007 global ship fuel consumption at ~369 million tonnes, increasin to ~486 million tonnes by Freight energy gy Trend Gunner, October ,000 Fuel Consump ption (Million Tonnes) Freight energy Trend Corbett and Köhler, JGR, 2003 Freight energy Trend Eyring et al., JGR, 2005 Int'l Marine Bunker Sales (IEA 2006) Point Estimates from Existing Studies Trade in billion tonne miles 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Trade in billion tonne miles 0 10, J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 16

17 Taxonomy of Environmental Impacts Episodic environmental events Routine environmental events Vessel-based Oil spills Engine air emissions Ocean dumping Invasive species introductions (ballast water/hull fouling) Sewage discharges Hull coating toxics releases Oily wastewater Underwater noise Vessel collisions Ship-strikes with marine life Port-based Dredging Storm water runoff Port expansion Vessel wake erosion Ship construction, breaking Cargo-handling air emissions 2008 J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 17

18 Efforts are now underway to evaluate and reduce air pollution from ships Emissions Pollution fate/transport Exposure Impact 1.E+03 1.E+02 Fuel and CO 2 Traditional Air Pollutants and Black Carbon HFCs 1.E+01 1.E+00 1.E-01 Tg per Year 1.E-02 1.E-03 Registered Fleet Fuel Use Registered Fleet CO2 (as sc) Registered Fleet NOx (as N) Registered Fleet SOx (as S) Registered Fleet PM Registered Fleet Engine HC Cargo HC Methan ane Total NMH MHC Black Carbo bon Organic Carbo bon Refrigeran ants Summary of global emissions from maritime shipping, J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 18

19 List of example air pollution control technologies for maritime shipping Emissions Pollution fate/transport Exposure Impact Mitigation Example technologies (not complete list) Likely to include operations, logistics to fully address GHGs Stage Control technology Target Pollutant Pre-combustion Fuel water emulsification NO x Humid air motor NO x Combustion air saturation system NO x In-engine Aftercooler upgrades NO x Engine derating NO x Injection timing delay NO x Engine efficiency improvements NO x,so x,pm,co 2 Post-engine Selective catalytic reduction NO x Seawater scrubbing SO x Diesel particulate filters PM Diesel oxidation catalysts PM Vessel designs Hull form CO 2, energy ratio pollutants Propeller CO 2, energy ratio pollutants 2008 J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 19

20 Mitigation focus not only emissions, GHGs Globalization addresses entire ship impact taxonomy Globalization trends increase other impacts, global focus on environment motivate t mitigating action for these too Example: Right whale strikes and global average ship momentum Annual Reported Right Whale Strikes y = x R² = Index of Ship Momentum (product of speed and tonnage, 1999 = 1) 2008 J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 20

21 Creating a Sustainable Intermodal Freight System Summary Intrinsic connection between maritime transport, trade, globalization continue to be coupled (e.g., IPCC SRES) Industry responds to regulatory, market-driven,, & advocacy pressure to improve environmental performance Environmental and security policy shifting to international agreements and global frameworks for regional policy A sustainable intermodal freight system is preferred to a mode-by-mode approach for at least two reasons: It can show where shipping modes offer least-cost mitigation It can identify where shipping offers the least polluting transport service 2008 J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 21

22 Discussion Welcome CONTACT: JAMES J. CORBETT, P.E. UNIV. OF DELAWARE UDEL.EDU TEL: JAMES J. WINEBRAKE, PH.D. ROCHESTER INST. OF TECH. RIT.EDU TEL: J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 22