European Road Freight Transport 2017 Sample

Transcription

1 European Road Freight Transport 2017 Sample

2 CONTENTS Introduction 6 1 European Road Freight Market Fundamentals KEY FINDINGS MARKET STRUCTURE EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT SUPPLY SIDE ISSUES AND TRENDS EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT DEMAND SIDE ISSUES AND TRENDS SUPPLY CHAIN FRAGMENTATION VEHICLE UTILISATION AND RATES OF EMPTY RUNNING COST STRUCTURES FREIGHT RATES THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL ROAD FREIGHT IN EUROPE THE NATURE OF INTERNATIONAL ROAD FREIGHT TRANSPORT CABOTAGE ADDITIONAL ROAD FREIGHT DATA SEGMENTATION 28 2 The Impact of European Policy on the Road Freight Sector KEY FINDINGS THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION MOBILITY PACKAGE ROAD CHARGING LOW-EMISSION ALTERNATIVE ENERGY FOR TRANSPORT CABOTAGE RULES ESTABLISHMENT AND LETTERBOX COMPANIES POSTING OF TRUCK DRIVERS USE OF HIRED GOODS VEHICLES OPERATOR LICENSING IN THE VAN SECTOR DRIVING AND REST PERIODS BREXIT AND EU POLICY CONCLUSION 42 3 Cargo Crime KEY FINDINGS WHAT IS CARGO CRIME? THEFT FROM TRUCKS AND WAREHOUSES COMBATING VEHICLE-BASED CARGO CRIME 46 4 Road Freight Innovation KEY FINDINGS ALTERNATIVE FUELS VEHICLE AUTOMATION 57 5 European Road Freight Market Survey KEY FINDINGS FREIGHT RATE CHANGES M&A ACTIVITY LTL AND FTL GROWTH STANDARD AND EXPRESS GROWTH NEW TECHNOLOGIES FULLY DRIVERLESS VEHICLES THREATS TO ROAD FREIGHT OPERATIONS EC MOBILITY PACKAGE BREXIT AND THE IMPACT ON UK-EU TRAFFIC DIESEL BANS 68 6 Market Size And Forecasts KEY FINDINGS TOTAL MARKET SIZE (2016) TOTAL MARKET SIZE (2017) TOTAL MARKET FORECAST TOTAL MARKET FORECAST BY COUNTRY TOP 10 EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT TRANSPORT PROVIDERS DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL ROAD TRANSPORT MARKET DOMESTIC ROAD TRANSPORT MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH 77 2

3 CONTENTS 6.9 DOMESTIC ROAD TRANSPORT MARKET SIZE BY COUNTRY DOMESTIC ROAD TRANSPORT MARKET FORECAST DOMESTIC ROAD TRANSPORT MARKET FORECAST BY COUNTRY INTERNATIONAL ROAD TRANSPORT MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH INTERNATIONAL ROAD TRANSPORT MARKET SIZE BY COUNTRY INTERNATIONAL ROAD TRANSPORT MARKET FORECAST INTERNATIONAL ROAD TRANSPORT MARKET FORECAST BY COUNTRY 85 7 Road Freight Operator Profiles KEY FINDINGS DACHSER DB SCHENKER DHL FREIGHT DSV GEFCO Appendix MARKET SIZING AND FORECASTING METHODOLOGY DEFINITIONS TOTAL EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT MARKET SIZE HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS TOTAL EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT MARKET SIZE NOMINAL GROWTH RATES TOTAL EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT MARKET SIZE REAL GROWTH RATES DOMESTIC EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT MARKET SIZE HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS DOMESTIC EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT MARKET SIZE NOMINAL GROWTH RATES DOMESTIC EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT MARKET SIZE REAL GROWTH RATES NTERNATIONAL EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT MARKET SIZE HISTORICAL DATA AND FORECASTS INTERNATIONAL EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT MARKET SIZE NOMINAL GROWTH RATES INTERNATIONAL EUROPEAN ROAD FREIGHT MARKET SIZE REAL GROWTH RATES KUEHNE + NAGEL LKW WALTER RHENUS SNCF LOGISTICS (GEODIS) TNT (FEDEX) XPO 119 3

4 TABLES, FIGURES AND CHARTS Figure 1.1 European road freight market structure 8 Chart 1.1 Number of road freight enterprises in EU by employment size class (2014) 9 Chart 1.2 Persons employed in EU road freight enterprises in by employment size class (2014) 10 Chart 1.3 EU road freight enterprise turnover by employment size class (2014) 10 Chart 1.4 EU year-on-year road tonne km growth and real GDP growth 15 Chart 1.5 EU year-on-year road tonne km growth and manufacturing production growth 15 Chart 1.6 EU year-on-year road tonne km growth and retail sales volume growth 16 Table 1.1 Major Forces of Supply Chain Dispersion and Fragmentation 16 Chart 1.7 Rate of empty running in EU road freight (ratio of empty vehicle km to loaded vehicle km) 17 Chart 1.8 Rate of empty running in domestic EU road freight by country 18 Chart 1.9 Rate of empty running in international EU road freight by country 18 Chart 1.10 Simplified road freight cost structure by country 19 Chart 1.11 Average cost structure for a 40-tonne HGV France and Bulgaria (2015) 20 Table 1.2 Cost structure for a 40-tonne HGV France and Bulgaria (2015) 20 Chart 1.12 Driver costs per international driving hour by haulier nationality (, 2016) 21 Chart 1.13 Indices of road freight cost components for a long haul 40-tonne truck in France 22 Chart 1.14 EU diesel price and oil price indices 22 Chart 1.15 EU diesel prices with and without tax 23 Chart 1.16 European road freight rates, diesel and CPI indices 24 Chart 1.17 Domestic, international and cabotage split 24 Chart 1.18 Share of EU international road freight tonne kilometres by haulier regionality 25 Chart 1.19 Share of EU international road freight tonne kilometres by haulier nationality 26 Chart 1.20 National road freight transport in the EU, domestic hauliers vs cabotage (2016, tonne kilometres) 27 Chart 1.21 Cabotage by country in where it takes place (2016, tonne kilometres) 27 Chart 1.22 Cabotage by nationality of haulier (2016, tonne kilometres) 28 Chart 1.23 EU road freight in 2016 by distance class (number of transports and tonne kilometres) 29 Table 1.3 EU road freight in 2016 by distance class 29 Chart 1.24 EU road freight by type of goods (2016, tonne kilometres) 30 Chart 1.25 EU road freight by type of cargo Figure 2.1 Charging of heavy goods vehicles in the EU 34 Chart 2.1 Estimates on development of EU Heavy Duty Vehicles CO2 Emissions Chart 2.2 Cabotage by nationality of haulier (2016, tonne kilometres) 36 Figure 2.2 Economic impact on transport operators 40 Figure 2.3 Existing rules for rest time for truck drivers 41 Chart 4.1 Uber ride-sharing market share over time 53 Chart 4.2 Mobile and tablet operating system market share over time 53 Figure 4.1 Leading European road freight startups 54 Chart 4.3 Top 10 trucking startups by investment 55 Figure 4.2 Stages of automation 57 Chart 5.1 By how much will road freight rates increase or decrease in the coming year? 61 Chart 5.2 Over the next five years, what levels of merger and acquisition activity will there be in the European road freight market? 62 Chart 5.3 What will be the impact of the merger and acquisition activities on the market? 62 Chart 5.4 How will the structure of the European road freight market change in the next 5 years? 63 Chart 5.5 How will the use of standard road transport products change in the next 5 years across Europe? 64 Chart 5.6 How will the use of express road transport products change in the next 5 years across Europe? 64 Chart 5.7 Which of these technologies do you believe has the greatest potential to transform the road freight market? 65 Chart 5.8 If technology and government regulations allow, would your company consider investing in or utilising fully driverless vehicles in the next 5 years? 66 Chart 5.9 What do you consider to be the main threats to your road freight operation in the next 5 years? 66 4

5 TABLES, FIGURES AND CHARTS Chart 5.10 The new EU mobility package proposal allows unlimited cabotage deliveries over five days. What is your view on this measure? 67 Chart 5.11 What will be the impact of Brexit on road freight traffic between the UK and EU? 68 Chart 5.12 How worried are you about government plans to ban diesel engine vehicles from city centres? 68 Chart 6.1 Total market size and growth 70 Chart 6.2 Total market size by country (2017 forecast) 71 Chart 6.3 Real growth rates of top 5 largest European road freight markets 72 Chart 6.4 Fundamental economic indicators 72 Chart 6.5 Total market forecast Chart CAGRs of the 10 largest European road freight markets 74 Chart 6.7 Top 10 road transport providers 75 Chart 6.8 Market shares of the top 10 road transport providers 76 Chart 6.9 Domestic and international European road freight markets split (2016) 76 Chart 6.10 Domestic and international market growth rates 77 Chart 6.11 Domestic market size and growth 78 Chart 6.12: Domestic market size by country (2017 Forecast) 79 Chart 6.13 Real growth rates of top 5 largest domestic European road freight markets 79 Chart 6.14 Domestic market forecast Chart CAGRs of 10 largest domestic European road freight markets 81 Chart 6.16 International market size and growth 82 Chart 6.17 International market size by country (2017 Forecast) 83 Chart 6.18 Growth rates of the top 5 largest international European road freight markets 83 Chart 6.19 International market forecast Chart CAGRs of 10 largest international European road freight markets 85 Chart 7.1 Dachser Revenues 87 Figure 7.1 Dachser European logistics network 88 Chart 7.2 DB Schenker Revenues and Margins 89 Figure 7.2 DB Schenker European land transport network 91 Figure 7.3 DHL Freight s subsidiary network 94 Chart 7.3 DHL Freight Revenues and Margins 95 Chart 7.4 DHL Freight Revenue by Geographic Region 96 Table 7.1 DHL Freight Products and Services 97 Figure 7.4 DHL Freight s Eurapid and Euroconnect service network 98 Chart 7.5 DSV Road Revenues and Margins 100 Figure 7.5 DSV Europe Road Network 101 Chart 7.6 GEFCO Revenues and Margins 103 Figure 7.6 GEFCO European Road Freight Network 104 Chart 7.7 Kuehne + Nagel Revenues and Margins 105 Figure 7.7 Kuehne + Nagel Key Hubs 106 Chart 7.8 LKW Walter Revenues 108 Chart 7.9 Rhenus Revenues 110 Figure 7.8 Rhenus European Hubs 111 Chart 7.10 Geodis Revenues 113 Chart 7.11 SNCF Logistics Revenues 113 Chart 7.12 TNT Revenues 117 Figure 7.9 TNT European Network Hubs 118 Chart 7.12 XPO Logistics Europe Revenues and Margins 120 Chart 7.13 XPO Logistics Europe Revenues by Business Segment 120 Table 8.1 Total European Road Freight Market Size - Historical Data and Forecasts 125 Table 8.2 Total European Road Freight Market Size Nominal Growth Rates 126 Table 8.3 European Road Freight Market Size Real Growth Rates 127 Table 8.4 Domestic European Road Freight Market Size Historical Data and Forecasts 128 Table 8.5 Domestic European Road Freight Market Size Nominal Growth Rates 129 Table 8.6 Domestic European Road Freight Market Size Real Growth Rates 130 Table 8.7 International European Road Freight Market Size Historical Data and Forecasts 131 Table 8.8 International European Road Freight Market Size Nominal Growth Rates 132 Table 8.9 International European Road Freight Market Size Real Growth Rates 133 5

6 01 European Road Freight Market Fundamentals 1.1 KEY FINDINGS The European road freight market is made up of small, medium and large providers. Companies with less than 50 employees account for around two thirds of revenues, while companies with over 250 employees account for around 10%. Smaller companies are increasingly a physical asset resource that large network transport providers draw on, given their asset light operating strategies. The demand side of the European road freight market is quite predictable. European road freight market volume growth tends to be in the low single digits year-over-year, correlating strongly with economic growth and manufacturing growth. The supply side of the market is quite unpredictable. Proposed legislation relating to cabotage rules and socalled posted workers could alter the underlying economics of road freight, while a driver shortage threatens the market over the longer term. Domestic road freight is associated with a much higher rate of empty running than international road freight. Within domestic and international road freight, rates of empty running differ significantly by country. Rates of empty running have remained relatively constant across countries since Diesel, alongside driver costs, are the two most significant costs that road freight providers face. International driver costs per hour for a Bulgarian haulier are four times lower than a Belgian haulier. Cost components of road freight typically change only very slowly. The one major exception is diesel, which is the main driver of year-on-year cost fluctuations. Road freight rates have grown slowly over the last decade in line with little change in driver and other costs. While the oil price has sensationally changed at times over the last decade, diesel prices in Europe change less as around half its price is tax, which is relatively constant over time. Domestic road freight accounts for around two thirds of European road freight traffic (one third is international). Cabotage accounts for only 2%, but is more important than this figure suggests because it supports the economics of international road freight. Cabotage mainly takes place in Germany and France, with Polish hauliers accounting for over one third of all cabotage. CEE hauliers accounted for over 60% of international traffic in 2016, up from around 40% in Polish hauliers accounted for almost 30% of traffic alone. 7

7 02 The Impact of European Policy on the Road Freight Sector 2.1 KEY FINDINGS The new EC Mobility Package will affect economic, social and environmental aspects of the road transport sector. The package proposes to make minimum wage rates apply to drivers only after three days out of their home countries. The Mobility Package proposals entail a significant step towards liberalisation of the cabotage market with unlimited cabotage deliveries over five days. The new rules on cabotage should results in improved vehicle utilisation For the first time, the EC is proposing legislation for monitoring and reporting CO2 emissions from heavy-duty vehicles. Legislation on driving and rest periods will undergo changes aimed at improving drivers working conditions. 2.2 THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION MOBILITY PACKAGE On May 31, 2017 the European Commission put forward the first part of its new Mobility Package, Europe on the move. The overall ambition of the package is to make traffic safer, encourage smart road charging, reduce CO2 emissions, air pollution and congestion, cut red-tape for businesses, fight illicit employment and ensure proper conditions and rest times for workers. To this end, the package comprises a number of initiatives which will affect the economic, social and environmental aspects of the road transport sector. Designed to help the transport sector remain competitive in a socially fair transition towards clean energy and digitalisation, the Europe on the move package is based on three pillars: fair & competitive, connected and clean mobility. The first eight proposals were transmitted to the European Parliament and the European Council, who will both adopt their respective positions on the various files and suggest amendments. The first batch of eight proposals are to be complemented over the next 12 months by other proposals, including post-2020 emissions standards for cars and vans as well as the first-ever emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles. 32

8 03 Cargo Crime 3.1 KEY FINDINGS Cargo crime is viewed by many police forces as low priority The threat is increasing as freight travels longer distances and cross border with ports and airports being the main hotspots Crimes are often very difficult to detect and reporting of theft is often delayed High value commodities such as electronics and drugs are often targeted with potential risk to consumers once illegally re-introduced to the market Many crimes can be avoided by following a set of simple procedures, such as limiting stops en route. Criminal gangs are good at exploiting lack of coordination between transnational or regional security agencies 3.2 WHAT IS CARGO CRIME? Cargo crime is a major problem in the European road freight industry, but one which is often over-looked by politicians and law enforcement agencies. The FBI has defined cargo crime as: the criminal taking of any cargo including, but not limited to, goods, chattels, money, or baggage that constitutes, in whole or in part, a commercial shipment of freight moving in commerce, from any pipeline system, railroad car, motortruck, or other vehicle, or from any tank or storage facility, station house, platform, or depot, or from any vessel or wharf, or from any aircraft, air terminal, airport, aircraft terminal or air navigation facility, or from any intermodal container, intermodal chassis, trailer, container freight station, warehouse, freight distribution facility, or freight consolidation facility. However, one of the issues with reporting cargo crime is that it does not constitute an offence in its own right. It is often classified as property theft (burglary or robbery), extortion, fraud, bribery, motor vehicle theft and in some cases assault or murder. This means that law enforcement agencies rarely allocate or train officers to address its specific needs. Another reason why cargo crime is often 43

9 04 Road Freight Innovation 4.1 KEY FINDINGS Electric vehicles are commercially viable in certain localised operations No technology can currently displace conventional fuels on long haul routes Digital road freight marketplaces/brokers only succeed if they serve the needs of carriers as well as shippers Genuinely driverless vehicles are a long way off Platooning technology is likely to become a standard operational feature during the 2020s. Marketplace/brokerage startups in Europe have not attracted the same scale of investment as peers in the US and Asia This chapter will focus on three primary areas in which new technologies are being applied to influence supply chain operations: alternative fuels; digital marketplaces and brokerage; vehicle automation. 4.2 ALTERNATIVE FUELS Alternative fuels have formed a growing point of discussion within the logistics industry. Interest in the topic has been driven by improvements in technology and increasing economic viability. Consequently, a number of logistics providers have experimented with the use of alternative fuels in their commercial fleets. Though there are other alternative fuels such as ethanol*, which is used in conjunction with petrol in Brazil, this section will focus on those fuels deemed most commercially viable within the European market; natural gas, rechargeable batteries and hydrogen fuel cells. *The production of fuel ethanol is dependent on vast tracts of arable land for crop farming, and its use in Brazil is widely recognised as irreplicable beyond a select number of tropical countries. 48

10 05 European Road Freight Market Survey 5.1 KEY FINDINGS Around 60% of respondents expect significant levels of M&A activity in European road freight over the next five years Around 60% of respondents expect LTL volumes to expand faster than FTL over the next five years Those surveyed also expect faster growth in express products than in standard products. The median response group for standard was 1-10% while for express it was 11-20%. Respondents selected digital freight marketplaces and better transportation management systems as the innovations which have the greatest potential to transform the road freight market, ahead of autonomous vehicles, albeit marginally. The driver shortage was by far the most popular choice identified as a threat to road freight operators over the next five years, followed by government anti-diesel regulation and city bans, an economic downturn and road congestion. Over 70% of survey respondents believe the impact of Brexit on UK-EU road freight traffic will be negative to some degree. During September and October 2017, Ti undertook an online survey with road freight operators and shippers active in the European road freight market. With 37%, Logistics/Road Freight Operators represented the largest participant group. Shippers represented 26% of the total and the remaining 37% came from other industry sectors, including consultancies, ocean carriers and research organisations. 60

11 06 Market Size and Forecasts 6.1 KEY FINDINGS The European road freight market grew by 2.4% in real terms in saw negative price pressures take effect, depressing the nominal value of the market. Growth has been driven by private consumption over the last few years. The international market is growing faster than the domestic one, and this trend is set to continue in the short to medium term. The total market is expected to grow at a real compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.0% from 2016 to Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Spain account for over 50% of the overall market. 6.2 TOTAL MARKET SIZE (2016) In 2016 the European road freight market is estimated to have grown by 2.1% in nominal terms, below the 2.5% growth seen in In real terms, the market expanded by 2.4% in 2016 (2015: 2.6%). Market growth has been driven overwhelmingly by volume growth in the year, whereas the impact of changing transport prices was negative overall. 69

12 07 Road Freight Operator Profiles 7.1 KEY FINDINGS IT and R&D spending is a focus for most logistics providers Shipment volumes are growing at moderate levels, but this is not necessarily translating into revenue growth Diversification into adjacent services, as well as sector-specific offerings, is a popular strategy for companies pursuing growth. The market remains incredibly competitive, limiting the extent to which companies can grow organically 7.2 DACHSER Strategic background Dachser is a family owned company with global operations. It is one of the largest providers of road transport services in Germany and throughout Europe. The company has diversified into contract logistics, and provides distribution services to the temperature controlled, DIY and consumer goods sectors. Dachser s pan-european network provides groupage and full load services across Europe. It is also a leading food logistics provider in Germany, and in Europe; through its membership of the continent-wide European Food Network. Further, Dachser s Logistics Consulting division offers integrated logistics solutions for procurement, warehousing and distribution logistics. The company recorded revenues of 5.71bn in Dachser divides its business into three principal segments; European Logistics, Food Logistics, and Air & Sea. Of these segments, the former is the most significant, and accounted for 61.25% of Dachser s total revenues in 2016 ( 3,495m). Within Germany in particular, this business is highly significant, though the company has sought to achieve Continental expansion, and has substantial activities in most of Western 86

13 CONTACT US Michael Clover Business Development Manager Direct: +44(0) Skype: mjcloverti Linkedin: uk.linkedin.com/in/michael-clover