2 nd Mare Forum Poland 2017 Sopot, Poland, 16 th May 2017 The Polish Excellence, What can the Polish Maritime Industry do for international shipping

Transcription

1 2 nd Mare Forum Poland 2017 Sopot, Poland, 16 th May 2017 The Polish Excellence, What can the Polish Maritime Industry do for international shipping - Meet the Polish Maritime Industry

2 Industry Trends Summary World trade expected to grow 3.5% in 2017 (0.4% higher than in 2016) Emerging economies expected to grow by 4.5% during 2017, 0.4% higher than in 2016 Advanced economies expected to grow 2.0% in 2017, 0.3% higher than in 2016 Trump: Potential roll back of regulation in the oil and gas sector supporting US energy trade including LPG and chemicals (into medium-term) China s One Belt, One Road infrastructure aims to create a new 21st Century trading network. The construction phase will create demand for raw materials (bulk vessels), heavy machinery (MPPs and heavy lift vessels), and in the long run, allegedly boost tourism (cruise ships) In April 2017 the price of Brent crude oil dropped to $52/bbl after recovering to $58/bbl in January 2017 Growth potential in Seaborne Trade. Offshore requirements weak in short term. Some improvements in bulker markets and very strong investor interest Demolitions in the bulker and container ship segments are helping bring the markets back towards balance Regulation is accelerating and creating demand for technology driven solutions. Innovation opportunities with e-commerce, data, IT and satellite communication to ships to support productivity and regulation

3 Shipping Market Cycle Position: March 2017 Data Source : Clarkson Shipping Market Update; March 2017 Next update: September 2017

4 Demand Supply Balance The Key Markets Data Source : Clarkson Shipping Market Update; March 2017 Next update: September 2017

5 Environmental Regulation Timeline Data Source : Clarkson Shipping Market Update; March 2017 Next update: September 2017

6 China s One Belt, One Road Initiative Data Source : Clarkson Shipping Market Update; March 2017 Next update: September 2017

7 Trump: Potential Impact On Shipping & Offshore Data Source : Clarkson Shipping Market Update; March 2017 Next update: September 2017

8 M n GT 81.9% of current orderbook is scheduled for delivery during MSI reports that many of the 2016 non-delivery vessels were ordered pre 2013, so argue that many of these should be removed from today s orderbook stats, to give a more reliable picture of real forward yard cover in 2017Q1 forecast report Passenger Ships LPG carrier LNG carrier Cont ainership Other Tanker Bulk carrier Global Orderbook by Shiptype; Data source: IHS-Fleet Database 2017 Q1

9 million tonnes 10, ,021.4 million GT 12, , , ,360.8 Despite Forecast Demolitions Oversupply to Continue Through ,000 Seaborne Cargo World Fleet (RH Axis) 1,600 16,000 1,400 14,000 1,200 12,000 1,000 10,000 8, , ,000 2,000 World Fleet CAGR =7.5% Seaborne trade CAGR = 2.6% Forecasts World Fleet CAGR = 1.9% Seaborne cargo CAGR = 2.1% World Seaborne Trade & Fleet Outlook ( ); Dat a source: M SI Ltd; 2017 Q1

10 Forward Cover by Builder Country/ Region S. Korean Yards Have Lowest Forward Cover Data Source : Clarkson Shipping Market Update; March 2017 Next update: September 2017

11 Shipyard Capacity to Continue Dropping Data Source : Clarkson Shipping Market Update; March 2017 Next update: September 2017

12 Primary energy mix will be dominated by Oil (27%), Gas (24%) & Coal (23%) by 2040 in the IEA s New Policies Scenario Renewables, followed by natural gas, are the main winners to 2040 Primary energy demand by Fuel in the New Policies Scenario IEA World Energy Outlook Report November 2016

13 Poland GDP Growth Source : OECD

14 Polish Regional Maritime Clusters Source : Polish Chamber of Maritime Commerce

15 Poland GDP per Capita and Labor Productivity by Region

16 Polish Maritime Cluster Source : Polish Chamber of Maritime Commerce

17 Poland Shipbuilding Industry Sales figures for the shipbuilding industry in Poland in the years Source: Forum Okrętowe.

18 Polish Shipyards Order Book Q Ship Type Number of Vessels Sum of mgt Fishing General cargo ship LNG carrier Miscellaneous * Offshore Other bulk carrier Passenger ro-ro * Miscellaneous: Tugs 11 Utility vessels 3 Work/repair vessels 2 Research Survey vessels 2 Cable layer 1 Supply tender 1 Grand Total Current Order Book for the shipbuilding industry in Poland Q Source: IHS.

19 Poland Shipbuilding Industry Three Key Elements

20 Plant There is no doubt that Poland has invested in its plant historically and still has some of the best equipped shipyards in Europe. However, are there gaps in capacity / capability?

21 Process Experience and track record has shown that documented processes in place in shipyards in Poland are hard to fault. But do the operators and supervisors implement these processes effectively and efficiently?

22 People How many workers are needed? What skills are required? All staff recruitment, training, skills, monitoring?

23 Looking ahead

24 Poland Workforce

25 Some thoughts Since the market slowed, some quality shipyards could not secure any new orders Some yards ceased work Shipyard ownership and management changes (with some consolidation) Loss of skilled workers abroad Cash flow issues slowed investment in training and quality Need : Policy Consolidation Focus on specialized/niche sectors and repairs/retrofitting - Innovation Investment and Attraction of skilled workers Marketing Financial instruments

26 Main Market Intelligence Sources Maritime Strategies International (MSI Ltd); Shipping economic forecasts IHS Maritime Database; World Fleet Statistics