AMER BADAWI Vice President Columbia Grain, Inc.

Transcription

1 AMER BADAWI Vice President Columbia Grain, Inc.

2 World Freight Markets By: Amer Badawi Vice President

3 Topics Drybulk Fleet Profile General Trends

4 World Grain

5 World Output

6 World Output - 47% increase y-o-y since % annual production growth % annual population growth.

7 US Output

8

9 120.0MMT Wheat Import by Region 100.0MMT 80.0MMT 60.0MMT 40.0MMT 20.0MMT 0.0MMT East & West Europe Asia Central & South America Middle East & Africa Other 05/ MMT 70.9MMT 46.7MMT 78.2MMT 0.5MMT 06/ MMT 72.9MMT 54.2MMT 73.4MMT 0.7MMT 07/ MMT 67.7MMT 55.3MMT 78.5MMT 0.4MMT 08/ MMT 69.0MMT 52.3MMT 105.1MMT 2.2MMT 09/ MMT 75.5MMT 53.1MMT 95.1MMT 0.6MMT 10/ MMT 80.2MMT 50.8MMT 88.0MMT 2.2MMT 11/ MMT 80.9MMT 58.5MMT 104.3MMT 1.5MMT 12/ MMT 82.7MMT 55.5MMT 103.8MMT 2.1MMT 13/ MMT 96.8MMT 60.7MMT 119.2MMT 2.2MMT 14/15 est 26.5MMT 110.6MMT 59.3MMT 124.0MMT 1.6MMT 15/16 Fcast 29.9MMT 105.6MMT 61.0MMT 119.9MMT 1.6MMT

10 Bulk Carrier Fleet

11 Ships

12 How Many Ocean Going Ships on this Planet?

13 Containerships 11,806 Bulk Carrier 10,705 Oil Tankers 6,058 Chemical Tankers 4,908 Gas Carriers (LNG) 1,784 Reefers 827 Auto Carriers 350 Total 36,438

14 Focus on Bulk Carriers: 10,705

15 4,000 Bulk Carrier Unit Profile 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize ,858 1,705 1, ,817 1,863 1, ,010 2,196 1,786 1, ,047 2,529 1,976 1, ,034 2,779 2,173 1, ,030 2,859 2,260 1, ,097 3,042 2,423 1, ,261 3,319 2,450 1, ,275 3,349 2,448 1,630 Total in 2004: 5,846

16 350.0MMT 300.0MMT Bulk Carrier DWT Profile 250.0MMT 200.0MMT 150.0MMT 100.0MMT 50.0MMT 0.0MMT Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize MMT 66.5MMT 93.7MMT 111.1MMT MMT 71.0MMT 100.8MMT 121.1MMT MMT 77.2MMT 108.2MMT 131.4MMT MMT 82.9MMT 114.8MMT 143.5MMT MMT 91.9MMT 121.1MMT 170.0MMT MMT 111.0MMT 134.6MMT 209.3MMT MMT 131.0MMT 152.3MMT 251.9MMT MMT 146.9MMT 169.7MMT 280.2MMT MMT 157.7MMT 185.2MMT 293.7MMT MMT 165.9MMT 193.4MMT 308.1MMT MMT 179.4MMT 195.2MMT 309.4MMT MMT 181.5MMT 195.4MMT 309.5MMT

17 Trends

18 Vessel Size DWT Profile 350.0MMT Handysize Handymax 300.0MMT Panamax 250.0MMT Capesize 200.0MMT 150.0MMT 100.0MMT 50.0MMT 0.0MMT

19 900.0MMT Fleet Deadweight Growth 800.0MMT 700.0MMT 600.0MMT 500.0MMT 400.0MMT 300.0MMT 200.0MMT

20 50% 45% 40% 2016 Bulk Carrier Size/Age 35% Profile 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Over 20 yrs Under 4 yrs Handysize 15% 11% 9% 28% 37% Handymax 7% 9% 13% 26% 45% Panamax 7% 11% 15% 21% 46% Cape 7% 6% 11% 31% 45%

21

22 Bulk Carrier Size/Age Profile

23 Bulk Carrier Ownership

24 BULKER FLEET Supply & Demand and Earnings

25 On March 2010 Order Book represents 60% of current fleet dwt capacity!

26 Order Book represents 12% of current fleet dwt! 2016 shows 882 bulk carriers on order for delivery.

27 2500 Order Book & Bulk Carrier Delivery

28 Demand

29 Clarkson Research 1,800MMT 1,600MMT Demand for Bulkers 1,400MMT 1,200MMT 1,000MMT 800MMT 600MMT 400MMT 200MMT 0MMT Iron Ore Coal Wheat, Coarse Grain & Soybean Bauxite, Alumina & Phos- Rock Sugar, Agribulk, Cement, Steel, Fertilizer, Coke, others MMT 673MMT 274MMT 101MMT 1,084MMT MMT 704MMT 292MMT 108MMT 1,305MMT MMT 753MMT 306MMT 124MMT 1,392MMT MMT 777MMT 319MMT 128MMT 1,373MMT MMT 777MMT 321MMT 94MMT 1,236MMT MMT 900MMT 343MMT 119MMT 1,376MMT ,052MMT 946MMT 345MMT 142MMT 1,468MMT ,109MMT 1,062MMT 370MMT 137MMT 1,505MMT ,189MMT 1,179MMT 387MMT 167MMT 1,574MMT ,338MMT 1,215MMT 432MMT 135MMT 1,598MMT ,360MMT 1,129MMT 456MMT 155MMT 1,609MMT ,353MMT 1,118MMT 463MMT 151MMT 1,635MMT

30 Clarkson Research Demand for Bulkers

31 Clarkson Research & other Seaborne Bulk Trade 5% Annual Global Growth Historical Forecast

32 Dry Bulk Handling

33 Drybulk Trade Demand: Ports handle 12,000,000 mt of bulk material every day, that s 532,400 mt every hour. Population 2016: 7.4 Billion Dry Bulk Handle: 4.4 Billion Tons = 0.6 Metric Ton per person per year.

34 Earnings

35 $120,000 Ship Earnings Capesize $100,000 Panamax Handymax Handysize $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0

36 Other Trends

37 Larger ships. Lower ship earning. Cheap Fuel. Secondhand value down. Available Rail Capacity.

38 Larger Ship Go big or go home!

39 M/S Ore Brasil previously M/S Vale Brasil Built: 2011 Dwt: 402,347 LOA: 362 meters Beam: 65 meters Draught: 23 meters Speed: 15.4 knots

40

41 M/S Ore Brasil 363 meters

42 Thoughts on Larger Ship Most ports today cannot accommodate 75 feet of draft. Insufficient infrastructure for massive gulps of cargo. Counter to modern on-time delivery in Supply Chain management. Solution include: - Lighterage - Modulation - Feeder Service. Larger the ship = lower ton-mile cost. Front Haul cargoes.

43 Ship Lighterage extra cost of lighterage operation. $5-15 pmt

44 Feeder Service

45 Modulation

46 Front Haul Cargoes

47 3 months moving average BPI/Bunkers

48 1 Year Average Bunker Prices

49 Rail Shuttle rates back at tariff.

50 Over Capacity with expansion EGT New Facility at Longview KEX Completed Expansion at Kalama UGC Completed Expansion at Vancouver TEMCO Completing Expansion at Kalama CET Completing Expansion at Rivergate LDC Completed Upgrade in Portland About $0.5 Billion in investment. Capacity Increase: about 15mt/Year **Major RR invested over $30b in recent years in US expanding and improving systems.

51 So, why are Columbia Rive port expensive? Higher efficiency in product handling. Better loading speed. Less port congestion. What comes with that, higher cost.

52 Competitive Delivered Cost Strong $$ USA has to compete with lower-cost producers.

53 Supply Chain Controls Innovative and efficient systems How to compete??

54 Thank you!