TRB - Annual Meeting

Transcription

1 TRB - Annual Meeting NATIONAL DREDGING NEEDS STUDY PHILLIP J. THORPE Institute for Water Resources 16 January 2002

2 AGENDA Background Information Historical Perspective Global and US Trade World and US Port Comparison World and US Fleets US Shipping and Fleet Forecasts Dredging Needs Trends

3 Background Information Legislative Requirements Existing and Projected Future Project Depths Types and Sizes of Ships in Use World Trade Patterns Assessment of the Future National Waterside Infrastructure Needs Comparison of Depths of U.S. and Selected World Ports

4 Background Information Study Objectives Compile Strategic Maritime Information for Analysis Provide consistent information base of economic activity and channel demand Identify Corps Deep Draft projects with potential for deeper channels

5 Background Information Accomplishments Collected, Compiled & Analyzed Strategic Maritime Information Analyzed Current and Future Traffic for Channel Usage Examined Several Methodologies for Measuring Dredging Needs Compared Constrained Movements Against Planned Improvements

6 Background Information Strategic Maritime Information COMMODITY TYPES & AMOUNTS (Tons, Value, TEUs) BY DIRECTION; TRADING REGIONS/ROUTES; VESSEL TYPE & SIZE; ORIGIN & DESTINATION; U.S. & FOREIGN PORT; CORPS PROJECT VESSEL TYPES; SIZES; & DISTRIBUTIONS; U.S. & FOREIGN PORT; TRADING ROUTE/ITINERARY; COMMODITY TYPE & AMOUNTS; PHYSICAL & OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS PORTS INFRASTRUCTURE; CORPS PROJECTS; DEPTHS; COMMODITY TYPES & AMOUNTS; VESSEL CALLS BY TYPE & SIZE; TRADING PARTNERS; MARKET AREAS

7 Background Information FORECASTS COMMODITY FLOWS IMPORTS & EXPORTS AT COASTAL & PORT LEVEL VESSELS TYPES & SIZES NUMBER OF CALLS TONNAGE CARRIED FUTURE SAILING DRAFTS AT COASTAL & PORT LEVEL PORTS AT COASTAL & PORT LEVEL

8 Historical Perspective Real Value of Traded Goods (1946 to 1996 in Billions of 96 USD) $1,600 billions of $U.S. $1,200 $800 $400 Total Exports Imports $

9 Historical Perspective Real Value of Trade as a % of GDP 30% (1959 to 1998 in Billions of 96 USD) 25% 20% % of GDP 15% 10% 5% 0%

10 Global and US Trade Patterns of Global & US Maritime Trade World Trade has grown at double the rate of economic output World Trade growth caused by changes in global market place More open door trading changes in international investment Growth in World container trade equally strong Strong demand for goods Vessel development Port development

11 Global and US Trade Patterns of Global & US Maritime Trade US Trade growth has been robust Imports - 8% per annum Exports - 7% per annum Reasons for US Trade growth Strong Dollar Strong Productivity Low Inflation Low Interest Rates

12 Global and US Trade US International Trade (1992 to 2040 in Billions of 1987 USD) $15,000 Actual Forecast $10,000 Imports Exports Total $5,000 Source: WEFA Inc. $

13 Global and US Trade US Trade by World Region (Tonnage) Asia Canada, Mexico, Central America Europe South America Africa Mid East Australia Other millions of metric tons Imports Exports

14 Global and US Trade US Trade by World Region (Value) Asia Canada, Mexico, Central America Europe South America Africa Mid East Australia Other $0 $40 $80 $120 $160 $200 $240 $ billions Imports Exports

15 Global and US Trade US Trade by Coast (Tonnage) metric tons (millions) Gulf Coast Atlantic Coast Pacific Coast Great Lakes Total Imports Exports

16 Global and US Trade US Trade by Coast (Value) $300 $200 $billions $100 $0 Pacific Coast Atlantic Coast Gulf Coast Great Lakes Total Imports Exports

17 Global and US Trade Growth in U.S. TEU Throughput TEUs (Million) Year Source: Containerization International

18 Global and US Trade US Container Trade by Coast 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Atlantic Coast Pacific Coast Gulf Coast Great Lakes metric tons $U.S.

19 World and US Port US Army Corps Comparison US cargo distributions Top 50 World ports Top 5 commodities for Top World ports Top 10 World ports by US Coast Infrastructure and facilities Infrastructure development Channel depths

20 World and US Port US Army Corps Comparison Cargo Distribution (Tonnage and Value) World Ports Top 25 Ports handle 30% of Tonnage Top 50 Ports handle 43% of Tonnage Top 25 Ports handle 50% of Value Top 50 Ports handle 63% of Value US Ports Top 25 Ports handle 76% of Tonnage Top 50 Ports handle 91% of Tonnage Top 25 Ports handle 89% of Value Top 50 Ports handle 96% of Value

21 Top World Ports TONNAGE VALUE TOP 20 PORTS 28.2% 50.2% 6 Asia 13 Asia 4 So. Am. 6 Eur. 3 No. Am. 1 So. Am. 3 Eur. 3 Africa 1 Mid-East

22 World Container Ports Meters Feet GOTHENBURG, SWEDEN ROTTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SOUTHAMPTON, UK ALGECIRAS, SPAIN SINGAPORE SALALAH, OMAN PORT SAID, EGYPT HONG KONG, CHINA KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN KOBE, JAPAN NAGOYA, JAPAN YOKOHAMA, JAPAN Source: Containerisation International Yearbook 1998

23 World and US Port US Army Corps Comparison World and US ports are comparable in landside infrastructure (Berths and Cranes) World and US container ports are developing both new terminals and intermodal connections US container ports tend to be shallower than World ports particularly along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts

24 World and US Fleets World Fleet Capacity by Vessel Type Oil Tankers 41.5% Dry Bulk Ships 37.0% Containerships Break-Bulk Ships Combination Carriers Multi-Purpose Specialized Tankers Refrigerated Vessels Ro-Ro Ships Vehicle Carriers 6.9% 3.5% 3.3% 2.8% 1.9% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: WEFA Analysis of Clarkson Research Data.

25 World and US Fleets World Fleet Capacity Growth by Vessel Type (per annum from 1985 to 1999) Containerships 8.8% Specialized Tankers Vehicle Carriers Multi-Purpose Ships Dry Bulk Ships Ro-Ro Ships Refrigerated Ships Oil Tankers Combination Carriers Break-Bulk Ships -6.9% -5.8% 2.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.5% 0.4% 4.7% 4.5% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Percent Change Source: WEFA Analysis of Clarkson Research Data.

26 World and US Fleets World Containership Growth in Cargo Capacity 5.0 (TEUs) TEU (millions) Source: WEFA Analysis of Clarkson Research Data.

27 World and US Fleets Distribution of Dry Bulk Vessels (by design draft) 600 # of vessels World U.S design draft (feet) Source: PMCL Analysis of Fairplay Ship Register Data and WCSC data

28 World and US Fleets Distribution of Containership Vessels 200 (by design draft) number of vesse World U.S design draft (feet) Source: PMCL Analysis of Fairplay Ship Register Data and WCSC data

29 World and US Fleets Number of Vessels Calling US Ports (by vessel type: 1996 data) Dry Bulk 3,024 General Cargo 1862 Tankers 1175 Containerships Source: PMCL Analysis of Fairplay Ship Register Data and WCSC data Number of Ships

30 World and US Fleets Number of Vessel Calls at US Ports (by vessel type: 1996 data) Containerships 34,840 General Cargo 22,537 Dry Bulk 17,941 Tankers 11, Source: PMCL Analysis of Fairplay Ship Register Data and WCSC data Number of U.S. Port Calls

31 US Shipping and Fleet US Army Corps Forecast Growth in US Container Throughput 60,000 50,000 TEUs (thousands) 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Year 2000 Year 2010 Year 2020 Source: WEFA Inc. Imports Exports Total

32 US Shipping and Fleet US Army Corps Forecast Forecast of Annual Vessel Calls 160 (by Vessel Type) calls (thousands) Tankers Dry Bulk Containership General Cargo Other 0 year 2000 year 2010 year 2020 Based on WCSC Data

33 NATIONAL DREDGING US Army Corps NEEDS STUDY Expected Increase in Annual Vessel Calls to/from U.S. Ports thousands of calls Tankers Dry Bulk Containership General Cargo Other Increase

34 US Shipping and Fleet US Army Corps Forecast Forecast of Annual Vessel Calls on Atlantic Coast 75 (by Vessel Type) Calls (Thousands) Tanker Dry Bulk Continership General Cargo Other 15 Based on WCSC Data 0 year 2000 year 2010 year 2020

35 US Shipping and Fleet US Army Corps Forecast Forecast of Annual Vessel Calls on Pacific Coast 45 (by Vessel Type) Calls (Thousands) Tanker Dry Bulk Continership General Cargo Other Based on WCSC Data 0 year 2000 year 2010 year 2020

36 US Shipping and Fleet US Army Corps Forecast Forecast of Annual Vessel Calls on Gulf Coast 30 (by Vessel Type) Calls (Thousands) 15 Tanker Dry Bulk Continership General Cargo Other Based on WCSC Data 0 year 2000 year 2010 year 2020

37 Dredging Needs Methodology Dredging Need = Demand for Unconstrained Channel Usage Channel vs. Ship Size Project/Channel Depth Compared to Vessel Design Draft Estimated Constrained Vessel Calls Current and Future

38 Dredging Needs Constrained Vessel Calls with & w/o Corps Projects 80 constrained calls (thousands) With Planned Projects Without Planned Projects 0 Year 2000 Year 2010 Year 2020

39 Dredging Needs Constrained Vessel Calls by Coast with & w/o Corps Projects Year 2000 constrained calls (thousands) Year 2020 with planned projects Year 2020 without planned projects 5 0 Atlantic Coast Pacific Coast Gulf Coast Great Lakes

40 Dredging Needs Constrained Containership Calls by Coast with & w/o Corps Projects 20 constrained calls (thousands) Year 2000 Year 2020 with planned projects Year 2020 without planned projects 0 Atlantic Coast Pacific Coast Gulf Coast Great Lakes

41 Trends International trade is important for U.S. economic growth. Primary trades are East- West (Asia & Europe) U.S. trade is important for world growth. U.S. is No. 1 market for containerized trade Growth in international trade is expected to continue (4% - 5%) Traffic (tonnage) expected to more than double by Containers (TEUs) are expected to double in 10 years and quadruple in 20 years

42 Trends Trade growth means increased congestion and industry consolidation Increased congestion will increase Asian traffic through the Suez Canal Industry consolidation means larger vessels (mega-containerships) and traffic consolidation (hub ports) Mega-containerships and hub ports require deeper channels and increased port capacity (mega-terminals)

43 National Dredging US Army Corps Needs Study Questions?