Estimating North Dakota s Economic Base. Randal C. Coon, Dean A. Bangsund, and Nancy M. Hodur *
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1 Estimating North Dakota s Economic Base Randal C. Coon, Dean A. Bangsund, and Nancy M. Hodur * The economic base of a state or region consists of those activities that bring dollars into the state or region (i.e., through sales of goods or services to out-of-state markets). In North Dakota, these activities are in six primary industries, as well as federal government outlays. The state s primary industries include: agriculture; manufacturing; coal mining and conversion; oil and gas exploration, extraction, and refining; tourism; and, exported services. Agriculture includes receipts from sales of crops and livestock, as well as government farm commodity program payments, but excludes agricultural processing. Manufacturing includes agricultural processing, as well as other types of manufacturing. includes all expenditures by out-of-state visitors to North Dakota. services includes a variety of telemarketing, data processing, customer support, and related activities which primarily serve markets outside North Dakota. government outlays include federal government transfer payments as well as federally funded construction and payrolls. The most current data available were used to estimate North Dakota s economic base. These estimates were added to previous year s economic base by industry and are presented for select years (1990- ) in the attached tables. Economic base for North Dakota and each of the 8 state planning regions is presented in terms of constant (real) and current year (nominal) dollars. Economists typically express timeseries data in terms of constant dollars. For this analysis, Gross Domestic Product Implicit Price Deflators were used to convert current year dollars to constant dollars (Bureau of Economic Analysis 2017). Constant dollar values remove the effects of inflation, so dollar values for all years included in the analysis have the same purchasing power as those for the base year (i.e., for this study). North Dakota s economic base data set dates back to It was developed in conjunction with the North Dakota Input-Output Model. The Input-Output Model is different from most input-output models currently in use because it was created using actual expenditures data for each of the state s economic sectors. Economic base data provides the information necessary to validate the North Dakota Input-Output Model s interdependence coefficients, or multipliers. By definition, the gross business volume (or total business activity) of the Households Sector is personal income. Comparing personal income from the Input-Output Model with published personal income (Bureau of Economic Analysis 2018) provides an indication of how well the model replicates the state s economy. Personal income estimates from the two sources track quite well for the 59-year period Personal income estimates from the Input-Output Model were slightly lower than the published personal income (-5.47 mean difference). A Theil s Coefficient of indicates the model is quite accurate for predictive purposes. Considering the variability and recent growth in the North Dakota economy, the Input-Output Model and associated economic base have accurately estimated the state s total business activity. For a detailed discussion of the state s economic base, see Coon et al.. North Dakota s economic base has grown significantly since 1990, although growth in recent years has not been steady. The State s economic base grew rapidly during the 2008 to period, with agriculture and oil production driving the economic expansion. However, during that period the North Dakota economic base did not grow from 2008 to 2009 as a result of the United States recession. The 2010 to period * The authors are respectively, Research Specialist, Research Scientist, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics, and Director, Center for Social Research, North Dakota State University, Fargo. 1
2 represented a time of relatively strong commodity prices. The saying that the cure for high prices is high prices seemed to hold true and both agricultural commodity and oil prices worked their way lower. This had an immediate impact on the State s economic base and the total declined from its peak of $48.9 billion in to $39.2 billion in, and further declined to $37.2 billion in. The State s agricultural industry grew from to as a result of strong yields and steady prices; however, this growth was not enough to offset the decline in the oil industry that occurred from to. Economic base growth from 2000 to 2005 was 24.2 percent (average of 4.8 percent per year) and from 2005 to 2010 was 32.9 percent (average of 6.6 percent per year), compared to annual growth rates of 19.7 percent from 2010 to, 4.7 percent from to, and 1.8 percent from to. Natural resource industries (agriculture, coal mining and conversion, and petroleum and natural gas exploration, extraction and refining) have been responsible for much of this growth. Agriculture has transitioned into more profitable crops such as corn and soybeans to help meet world demand. Prices for these crops rose to record levels in recent years and then began to decline. Oil production in the state has increased with the development of the Bakken Formation, approaching one million barrels per day in. During the time of increased oil production, crude oil prices reached record levels during the 2007 to 2011 period. Crude oil prices continued to be relatively strong through the first half of, but dropped significantly by the end of the year. During this period crude oil production declined to slightly below the one million barrels per day level. While the natural resource-based industries in North Dakota were experiencing the effects of large price swings the remaining industrial sectors of the state were generally growing at rates more consistent with historic patterns. With growth in North Dakota s natural resource industries, the state s economy is more dependent on natural resource activities than in previous periods. Efforts to diversify the state s economy begin in the 1970's, with efforts to expand agricultural processing, manufacturing, and exported services. In 2000, 40.6 percent of North Dakota s economic base was derived from natural resources industries. This relationship has increased to 47.0 percent in 2010, 63.4 percent in, and 51.1 percent in. Events external to North Dakota (i.e., weather, politics, economics, and world supply and demand) have not only provided a favorable environment for the state s economic growth, but also have affected the economic slowdown in and. References Bureau of Economic Analysis Survey of Current Business Online. Historical Measures: Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product. Table Volume 97, No. 3. Internet Website: Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Income by Major Sources and Earnings by. Interactive Table: Table CA5N. Internet Website: Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. Coon, Randal C., Dean A. Bangsund, and Nancy M. Hodur.. The Economic Base of North Dakota: A Measure of the State s Economy in. AAE Staff Paper Fargo: North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics. 2
3 Table 1. North Dakota s Economic Base, by Industrial Categories, Selected Years, 1990 Coal Mining & 3 million current dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,57 39, , , , , , , , , , , , ,232.8 million constant dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,42 5, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,02 48, , ,232.8 Percent Change
4 Table 2. North Dakota State Region 1's Economic Base, by Industrial Categories, Selected Years, Coal Mining & All Primary million current dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,635.8 million constant dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
5 Table 3. North Dakota State Region 2's Economic Base, by Industrial Categories, Selected Years, 1990 Coal Mining & million current dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , million constant dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
6 Table 4. North Dakota State Region 3's Economic Base, by Industrial Categories, Selected Years, Year Agriculture Manufacturing Coal Mining & All Primary million current dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , ,36 2, , , million constant dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
7 Table 5. North Dakota State Region 4's Economic Base, by Industrial Categories, Selected Years, 1990 Coal Mining & million current dollars , , , , , , , , , , ,1521 1, , , , ,17 2, , , , , , , , , , , million constant dollars , , , , , , , , ,75 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,58 1, , , , , ,
8 Table 6. North Dakota State Region 5's Economic Base, by Industrial Categories, Selected Years, 1990 Coal Mining & million current dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , million constant dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
9 Table 7. North Dakota State Region 6's Economic Base, by Industrial Categories, Selected Years, 1990 Coal Mining & Oil/NG Exp., million current dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , million constant dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
10 Table 8. North Dakota State Region 7's Economic Base, by Industrial Categories, Selected Years, 1990 Coal Mining & million current dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , million constant dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
11 Table 9. North Dakota State Region 8's Economic Base, by Industrial Categories, Selected Years, Coal Mining & million current dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,579.3 million constant dollars , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
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