What next for container shipping? Ng Yat Chung Group President & CEO 18 October 2012
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1 What next for container shipping? Ng Yat Chung Group President & CEO 18 October 2012
2 Today s presentation Current reality Turning point in industry history Positioning for the future 1
3 Today s presentation Current reality Turning point in industry history Positioning for the future 2
4 Global container trade growth is slowing GDP Growth (%) 18% 16% Real GDP growth Average world containerized trade growth #x GDP multiplier Forecast Trade Growth (%) % 12% 10% 8% 6% average growth rate 8.6% average growth rate 5.2% % 2% 0% -2% % - -6% -6-8% -8-10% x 1.x 2.1x Source: Global Insight, EIU. GPS analysis 3
5 Jan 01 Jul 01 Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 0 Jul 0 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Resulting in significant freight rate volatility China Containerised Freight Index (Index) 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1, ~300 basis points ~600 basis points Source: Company, CCFI (UBS)
6 Current model not sustainable industry may be on the cusp of change Average Liner Industry EBIT Margin (%) 15.3% Global Financial Crisis Since 2009, the liner industry has lost >$15B 11.9% 9.1% 2.5%.% 1.5% -5.8% -3.8% -16.5% H2012 Source: Company financials Note: Industry EBIT is represented by the Liner EBIT or Operating margin of listed shipping companies 5
7 Today s presentation Current reality Turning point in industry history Positioning for the future 6
8 Forces shaping container shipping Industry Concentration CAPEX to Compete New vessel technology Absence of Financing Slowing Industry Growth A very different future High Fuel Cost 7
9 (f) 2013 (f) (f) 2013 (f) Global container trade growth is unlikely to see the rapid growth rate of the past Slowing Industry Growth Factors that drove consumption are unlikely to repeat 20% 15% US and Europe Import Growth Rate US Import Growth Rate (%) EU Import Growth Rate (%) 10% Containerized trade multiplier is forecasted to be less than 2 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Slowing growth rate of off-shoring manufacturing -20% 15% 10% Containerized Trade Growth Containerized Trade Multiplier Containerized Trade Growth (%) Significant downside risks particularly EU debt remains 5% 0% -5% % % -10 Source: Alphaliner, IMF WEO, Seabury 8
10 With high bunker price and supply exceeding demand, slow steaming is likely to continue High Fuel Cost Bunker prices increased by 153% since Jan 09 $800 $ Bunker Price ($/MT) Aug 12: $66 $00 Oil prices expected to remain around current level in 2012 & 2013 $200 Jan 09: $262 $0 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Capacity has grown steadily and is expected to outpace growth in throughput Individual carriers will continue to adopt slow steaming to bring down fuel and deployment costs 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Supply vs. Demand Growth Growth gap of 3.1% (f) 2013(f) % Annunal Capacity Growth % Global Throughput Growth Source: Alphaliner, Bunkerworld, EIA 9
11 More sophisticated ship design and technology will be game changer New vessel Technology Ship technology and vessel design very different today boosts fuel economy; provides opportunity to reset cost base New hull design optimized for flexible operation: speed and draft range (most containerships designed for high speed) Efficient main engine provides necessary power for operation at various loads Propeller, rudder and other appendages adapted to minimize resistance through water 10
12 With ships getting bigger, players require ever larger CAPEX to compete CAPEX to Compete Ship Prices (million USD) Trend towards larger and efficient ships is irreversible 18000T 16000T Big ships (>10,000 TEU) cost upwards of ~USD 100million; Capital costs are becoming a barrier of entry for new participants 13000T T T 88 Pct of Ships in TEUs >= 8,000 TEUs 33% Massive CAPEX requirement is forcing alliance re-alignment 22% 26% Mar'11 Mar'12 Mar'1 (f) Note: Ship prices based on latest known transacted price and Clarkson Source: MDS, Alphaliner, Clarkson 11
13 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Traditional ship financing is drying up Absence of Financing Low charter rates putting pressure on ship owners cash flow Traditional KG funds are disappearing Charter Rates (USD/Day; By Vessel Size) 60, TEU 6500 TEU 250 TEU 50,000 Lack of investment from cashstrapped owners will be a challenge for liners with insufficient financial capabilities to support their own fleet expansion 0,000 30,000 20,000 Chinese and Korean banks can emerge as potential new funding sources to support their shipbuilding industry 10,000 0 Source: Harper Petersen (Charter Rates) 12
14 Industry is likely to consolidate further Industry Concentration Industry concentration is at all-time high Capacity Share of Top 10 Carriers New Builds + Existing Estimate 6% The top three Asia-Europe carriers now control 50% of capacity compared to 20% at the beginning of 2000 Jan'12 Jan'11 63% 61% The container industry will shrink to 7 to 10 carriers by the mid-2020s, Jan'10 58% It may be 8, it may be 10, but there will be fewer players. - Seaintel Maritime Analysis Jan'00 50% Source: Alphaliner, JOC,MDS 13
15 Today s presentation Current reality Turning point in industry history Positioning for the future 1
16 What will future look like? Demand and supply imbalance will continue, but further slow steaming will moderate impact Fewer carriers: those with strong financial footing will have better chance More focus on efficiency than growth An industry shake-up may be inevitable. Winners are those with leading economics. 15
17 What APL is doing to position itself for this new future Modernise our fleet: 3 newbuilds will lower slot cost and provide APL with competitive cost base Drive efficiencies: Improve processes and enhance cost and operational efficiency Strengthen balance sheet: financing completed for all new vessels; available credit for further expansion 16
18 Evidence of recent carrier behavioural change Further slow steaming: Alphaliner reported that total capacity absorbed by extra slow steaming has increased 30% since the start of the year to 930,000TEUs Capacity reduction: Withdrawal and/or reorganization of Asia-Europe capacity this fall by the G6, CKYH Idling of vessels by individual carriers Returning of charters Short charter contracts: Shift in carriers chartering activity towards short term charters, allowing for faster withdrawal of tonnage 17
19 Moving forward what is needed? Greater collaboration between Reduce Liners cost and base Shippers to create a more stable freight environment would benefit all For Challenge Liners pricing paradigms Ability to return cost of capital Greater ability to re-invest in assets to lower cost of shipping Understand customer s business priorities For Shippers Greater stability in service from liners Generate More consistent shareholder capacity value and that returns services on cost of capital Better management of shipping costs 18
20 The world as we know it is changing 19 Urgency for carriers and shippers to adapt to new reality and build long term sustainability
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