Feasibility of a Statewide Travel

Transcription

1 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR nesota Modeling Group MeetingnPresentation Feasibility of a Statewide Travel Demand Model Contract No. 6-(PS 6) NSDU Project # --FAR To: nesota Modeling Group At: Room, Arden Hills Training Center nesota Department of Transportation Shoreview, MN November, : to : a.m. Department of Civil Engineering Fargo, ND November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Presenter Principal Investigator Dr. AMIY VARMA, P.E., A.I.C.P., P.T.O.E Associate Professor Department of Civil Engineering College of Engineering & Architecture North Dakota State University Fargo, ND Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Outline of Presentation. Survey Results. Challenges. Recommended Action Plan November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Survey Results Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Survey Results. Five different perspectives. Surveys Sent Out by August ; reminders on Aug, Aug, Sept, Sept. Surveys Received a cross-section of a) Departments in b) MPOs in nesota c) RDCs in nesota d) Other State DOTs e) NARC/Other MPO members November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group 6

2 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Responders Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Table S. Value of Perspective of Professionals District Transportation Data Analysis (TDA) Office of Freight and Commercial Vehicle Operations (OFCVO) District Office of Investment Management (OIM) Value II. Given the definition above, how valuable is development of a statewide travel model ()? Please use a scale of (no value) to (very valuable).. November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR The current regression approach to forecasting AADTs on both and local highways does not provide any origin-destination information. As incorporates Intersection Control Evaluations and Traffic Impact Studies, the importance of getting future traffic volumes (especially on the local system) is important. In development performance measures for the Statewide plan, future AADT is a very important element in identifying future needs. The AADT has previously been used as an indicator for widening shoulders, expanding from to lanes, and installing cable median barrier. November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR There are too many variables and changing conditions over time to develop a reasonably accurate and useful statewide travel model. MPO travel models serve the urbanized areas well and planning level traffic forecasts are adequate for Greater nesota planning and project programming needs. There possibly may be some value related to freight movements, but the feasibility and value of modeling is questioned due to constantly changing markets and conditions. November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR III. Importance of Planning Activity III. Level of Involvement Statewide Transportation Planning and Studies Highway Access Management and Traffic Impact Studies Regional Transportation Planning and Studies Development of Statewide or Regional Performance Measures Statewide Transportation Improvement Plan (STIP) Regional Transportation Planning and Studies Statewide Transportation Planning and Studies Funding and Programming -- Project Prioritization and Programming (based on benefits and needs analysis) Statewide Transportation Improvement Plan (STIP) Evaluate Impact of Network Changes Capacity Increases additional lanes, roadway improvements, new road Development of Statewide or Regional Performance Measures Special Generators Analysis (airports, intermodal transfer centers, trade centers, ethanol plants, elevators, etc.) Pavement Life studies roadway wear, timing of rehabilitation Truck Size and Weight studies; Spring Load restrictions Modal shift studies Highway Access Management and Traffic Impact Studies Bypass Studies Evaluate River Crossings and Bridges (emphasis on state lines) November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Freight Planning Safety Planning November and Analysis, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group

3 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Regional Transportation Planning and Studies.. Bypass Studies. Project level traffic forecasting for Benefit-Cost Analysis Land Use Planning Statewide Transportation Improvement Plan (STIP) Evaluate River Crossings and Bridges (emphasis on state lines) ITS Planning location of VMS/DMS, ATIS, etc... Funding and Programming -- Project Prioritization and Programming (based on benefits and needs analysis) Evaluate Impact of Network Changes Capacity Increases additional lanes, roadway improvements, new road Interchange Justification Reports (non-mpo areas) Safety Planning and Analysis Traffic Diversion for Construction; Detour Analysis and evaluation..... Passenger Rail Planning. November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Highway Access Management and Traffic Impact Studies Emergency Planning--Traffic Diversion and Evacuation Special Generators Analysis (airports, intermodal transfer centers, trade centers, ethanol plants, elevators, etc.) Pavement Life studies roadway wear, timing of rehabilitation Truck Size and Weight studies; Spring Load restrictions Modal shift studies Major Corridor Analysis (multi-county or multistate) Funding and Programming -- evaluate funding scenarios (gas tax rates, etc.) Transit alternative analysis Freight Planning Recreational Travel/Tourism Planning Development of Statewide or Regional Performance Measures Intermodal Connector Studies Intercity Bus Planning.. Statewide Transportation Planning and Studies. Weigh station location Analyzing Impact of Trade Agreements. November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group 6 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Travel Demand Measures V. Data Sources Travel Behavior American Travel Survey (ATS) Percent Census journey-to-work data Public-use Microdata samples (PUMS) AMTRAK AADT VMT Ton-Mile Vehicle Ownership FAA sample ticket data Intercity bus service NCHRP Report 6 Travel Estimation Techniques for Urban Planning NCHRP Report --Quick Response Urban Travel Estimation Techniques and Transferable Parameters ITE Trip Generation Rate Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) s TDA Office plays a key role. National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) add on Tourism Survey Roadside Survey GPS-based Survey Own house Household Survey Own on-board bus survey November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Own on-board rail survey November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group

4 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR V. Data Sources Employment Economic Forecasts y Business Survey MPO databases Employment/establishment survey Commercial vendor Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) Input-Output Model Data Regional Economic Model data Bureau of Economic Analysis State Agency Forecast Commercial Vendor Percent November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group V. Data Sources Household Socioeconomic Data Network Traffic Data Percent Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) Commercial Vendor MPO Networks 6 State Road Inventory or Management System 6 Bus published information TIGER National Highway Planning Network (NHPN) Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) from FHWA NTAD from BTS Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) In house s 6 In house travel times In house speeds s, speeds, or travel times from other agency 6 November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR VI. Analyses/Scenarios of Importance VI. Analyses/Scenarios of Importance Traffic Forecasting (Automobile and Truck) Highway Scenario Analyses (evaluate network changes added lanes, improved roads, new roads, traffic diversions, traffic loadings on highways, impact of spring load restrictions, etc) Truck Flow Analysis MPO External and Through Trip Analysis.. Policy Analyses (e.g. in the area of finance, transportation funding scenarios, and program (project) prioritization using estimates of VMT and VHT) Special Generator Analysis (e.g. airports, ethanol plants, tourist attractions, intermodal transfer centers) Geographic Level of Analyses (longer distance trips and should be used to supplement the urbanized area travel demand models. For urbanized area studies, the should provide externalexternal and external-internal trips for the MPO models. For statewide corridors such as I-, the model should be the basis of the analysis outside of the urban areas, with the capability of the results being integrated with the urban area models, where appropriate) Intercity recreational travel analysis.... November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR VI. Analyses/Scenarios of Importance Safety Analysis (e.g. analyze and track crash information or relate functional class to crash rates) Routing Analysis Rural Location Analysis (e.g. River Crossings and Bridges (especially at the state line) or Rural Interchange Justification Reports (non-mpo areas)) Commodity/Freight Flow Analysis (non-modal) Statewide Rail Freight Analysis Air and Rail Passenger Movements Inter and Intrastate Bus Analysis Non-motorized Analysis VII. Coordination Issues and Challenges -- Importance Interface the Statewide Model with the MPO Models The Statewide Model should be Geographic Information System (GIS) based (compatible with existing data sets) Coordinate the Statewide Model External Stations with the MPO External stations (location and traffic forecast). Coordinate between the Statewide and the MPO Socio- Economic Forecasts establish and use Statewide Forecast Controls for the Statewide Model Coordinate and work with RDCs Coordinate Model information with neighboring States Coordinate the format of the Statewide and MPO model report formats November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group

5 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR VIII. Barriers to Development Data challenges data not available, data not adequate, data collection will be costly Modeling challenges too complex to model and consistency, calibration, validation, and accuracy issues difficult to deal with Lack of expertise and staff to build and maintain the model Not well understood value and use of model not clearly understood by decision makers Perceived as redundant (regional and MPO models and trendline forecast are sufficient) Funding limited or not available No Champion (No one to pursue the development aggressively and communicate its value) Coordination issues and challenges difficult to deal with Perceived as controversial (multiple forecasts will provide more controversy than solution). November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Update Survey Results Other DOTs. Responders Arizona Delaware Georgia Idaho Kansas Kentucky Maryland Maine North Dakota Ohio Oregon Rhode Island South Dakota Tennessee Texas Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group 6 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Value Value II. Given the definition above, how valuable is development of a statewide travel model ()? Please use a scale of (no value) to (very valuable). States having Delaware Kentucky Maine Ohio Oregon Rhode Island Tennessee Texas Virginia Wisconsin States Developing Kansas States planning on developing Georgia Maryland South Dakota (b) Wyoming(c). States with No Plans on Developing a Arizona Idaho(a) North Dakota South Dakota(b) Other State DOT Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR. Responders. La Crosse Area Planning Committee. -Olmsted Council of Governments. St Cloud Area Planning Organization. politan Council of the Twin Cities. -Superior politan Interstate Council Value Have Developing Planning on Developing No Plans II. Given the definition above, how valuable is development of a statewide travel model ()? Please use a scale of (no value) to (very valuable)..... November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Table S. Value of Perspective of Professionals III. Importance of Planning Activity Mi n Ave rage III. Importance of Planning Activity Co un t M M i a n x Ave rage Value II. Given the definition above, how valuable is development of a statewide travel model ()? Please use a scale of (no value) to (very valuable).. Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) Regional Transportation Planning and Studies Transportation Improvement Plan (TIP) Statewide Transportation Planning and Studies... Evaluate Impact of Network Changes Capacity Increases additional lanes, roadway improvements, new road Funding and Programming -- Project Prioritization and Programming (based on benefits and needs analysis)..6 Table S. Value of Perspective of nesota MPOs Funding and Programming -- Project Prioritization and Programming (based on benefits and needs analysis) Regional Transportation Planning and Studies Evaluate River Crossings and Bridges (emphasis on state lines).. Value II. Given the definition above, how valuable is development of a statewide travel model ()? Please use a scale of (no value) to (very valuable).. Land Use Planning Funding and Programming -- evaluate funding scenarios (gas tax rates, etc.) Highway Access Management and Traffic Impact Studies.. November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group

6 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Evaluate Impact of Network Changes Capacity Increases additional lanes, roadway improvements, new road Funding and Programming -- Project Prioritization and Programming (based on benefits and needs analysis) Cou nt Mi n Ma x Averag e..6.6 III. Adequacy of Travel Demand Information Major Corridor Analysis (multi-county or multistate) Funding and Programming -- evaluate funding scenarios (gas tax rates, etc.) Transit alternative analysis C ou nt M M Ave i a rag n x e Statewide Transportation Planning and Studies Development of Statewide or Regional Performance Measures Interchange Justification Reports (non-mpo areas) Safety Planning and Analysis Co un t M M i a n x Ave rage..... Freight Planning Recreational Travel/Tourism Planning Development of Statewide or Regional Performance Measures Traffic Diversion for Construction; Detour Analysis and evaluation Freight Planning Intermodal Connector Studies.6.. Project level traffic forecasting for Benefit-Cost Analysis Land Use Planning Statewide Transportation Improvement Plan (STIP) Evaluate River Crossings and Bridges (emphasis on state lines) ITS Planning location of VMS/DMS, ATIS, etc.. Intermodal Connector Studies Intercity Bus Planning Weigh station location Analyzing Impact of Trade Agreements... Emergency Planning--Traffic Diversion and Evacuation Transit alternative analysis Special Generators Analysis (airports, intermodal transfer centers, trade centers, ethanol plants, elevators, etc.) Modal shift studies.... November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR VI. Analyses/Scenarios of Importance Traffic Forecasting (Automobile and Truck) Highway Scenario Analyses (evaluate network changes added lanes, improved roads, new roads, traffic diversions, traffic loadings on highways, impact of spring load restrictions, etc) Truck Flow Analysis MPO External and Through Trip Analysis VI. Analyses/Scenarios Importance Co M M C unt in ax o M M Av MPO External and Through Trip Analysis u i a era nt n x ge Geographic Level of Analyses (longer distance trips and should be used to supplement the urbanized area travel demand models. For urbanized area studies, the should provide external-external and external-internal trips for the MPO models. For statewide corridors such as I-, the model should be the basis of the analysis outside of the urban areas, with the capability of the results being integrated with the urban. area models, where appropriate) Traffic Forecasting (Automobile and. Truck) Highway Scenario Analyses (evaluate network changes added lanes, improved roads, new roads, traffic diversions, traffic loadings on highways, impact of spring load restrictions, etc) Truck Flow Analysis Commodity/Freight Flow Analysis (nonmodal) November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Avera ge...6 VII. Coordination Issues and Challenges -- VII. Coordination Issues and Challenges -- Importance Importance Coordinate the Statewide Model External Stations Interface the Statewide Model with the MPO Models with the MPO External stations (location and traffic.6 forecast).. The Statewide Model should be Geographic Information The Statewide Model should be Geographic System (GIS) based (compatible with existing data sets) Information System (GIS) based (compatible with. existing data sets).6 Coordinate the Statewide Model External Stations with the Coordinate between the Statewide and the MPO MPO External stations (location and traffic forecast). Socio-Economic Forecasts establish and use Statewide Forecast Controls for the Statewide Model.6 Coordinate between the Statewide and the MPO Socio- Interface the Statewide Model with the MPO Models Economic Forecasts establish and use Statewide Forecast Controls for the Statewide Model. Coordinate and work with RDCs Coordinate and work with RDCs.. Coordinate Model information with neighboring Coordinate Model information with neighboring States. States Coordinate the format of the Statewide and MPO model Coordinate the format of the Statewide and MPO. model report formats. report formats November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group VIII. Barriers to Development Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Data challenges data not available, data not adequate, data collection will be costly Modeling challenges too complex to model and consistency, calibration, validation, and accuracy issues difficult to deal with Lack of expertise and staff to build and maintain the model Not well understood value and use of model not clearly understood by decision makers Perceived as redundant (regional and MPO models and trendline forecast are sufficient) Funding limited or not available No Champion (No one to pursue the development aggressively and communicate its value) Coordination issues and challenges difficult to deal with Perceived as controversial (multiple forecasts will provide more controversy than solution) VIII. Barriers to Development Funding limited or not available Data challenges data not available, data not adequate, data collection will be costly Lack of expertise and staff to build and maintain the model Coordination issues and challenges difficult to deal with Not well understood value and use of model not clearly understood by decision makers No Champion (No one to pursue the development aggressively and communicate its value) Perceived as redundant (regional and MPO models and trendline forecast are sufficient) Modeling challenges too complex to model and consistency, calibration, validation, and accuracy issues difficult to deal with Perceived as controversial (multiple forecasts will provide more controversy than solution) November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Area covered jurisdiction Area covered in model Population in the jurisdiction Number of TAZ Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR (6 Estimate) 6 St. Cloud 6, 6 About About About, About 6 Approximately sq. mile Approx, in modeling area; (6), 6 November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group 6 6

7 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Table S. Modeling Goals and Needs Periods of Analysis Turn movements Link volumes * Corridor volumes Broad regional movements Transit demand Peak hour (a) (c) (a) (d) Peak period (b) hour ADT (e), (?), (?) (e), (?) (e) (d) Other time period ( Off-Peak ) (a) Needed for many project development activities/ currently derive using model data in a manual process (b) Very limited need (c) Not currently modeled (d) Generated outside of traffic model (e) Current model provides this November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR External Station Survey Household Travel Survey National Travel Survey Trip Generation Rates Land Use Base Year Data Land Use Future Data Additional or Newer Data are Needed High () () Medium Low () () Data are Adequate November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Additional or Newer Data are Needed High Medium Low Employment Base Year () Employment Future Year, Population Base Year Population Future Year, Household Demographics and Income Base Year Household Demographics, and Income Future Year Data are Adequate () St. Cloud (6) () Detailed data of all types for operations modeling Data for determining the effects of higher fuel prices Impacts of Congestion Air Quality Analysis Additional or Newer Data are Needed High To Enhance Your Existing Modeling Efforts, Medium,, () Low () Data are Adequate November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Modeling for Transit Data to support another form of travel demand modeling (activity, tour, etc.) Modeling Large Trucks Modeling Commercial Vehicle Traffic (home delivery, contractors, home health, etc.) Additional or Newer Data are Needed High To Enhance Your Existing Modeling Efforts Medium Low St. Cloud St. Cloud Data are Adequate St. Cloud Number of External Stations External station counts are derived from a Wisconsin State Traffic Model. About Date(s) of last calibration Type of survey used or source of data about externally oriented trips (EX- EX, EX-IN, IN-EX) mixture of road side intercept and license plate video capture/mailout External O D Study from Jan Origin-Destination Survey Trip Purposes included in the external travel model HBW, HBO, NHB HBO HBW NHB Date of Last Survey Jan November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group

8 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Number of External Stations 6 Date(s) of last calibration The E-E component was last calibrated in the early s from the perspective that this is when the data was collected that was utilized to build an E-E trip table. Type of survey used or source of data about externally oriented trips (EX-EX, EX-IN, IN-EX) Roadside interview on TH; Avenue of the Americas study Trip Purposes included in the external travel model Roadside interview on TH; Avenue of the Americas study Note Date of Last Survey Last travel survey looking at external travel was around June WisDOT External External trips WI - Station are not split by Origin/Destination purpose. (i.e. Survey. For the MN they are treated side used small urban as their own estimating technique purpose) from NCHRP #6. November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Update Survey Results Mn/RDCs. Responders Region Development Commission Upper nesota Valley Regional Development Commission November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Update Survey Results Mn/RDCs The RDC's have not done traffic analysis or modeling to date. The survey is not relative to RDC planning activities, however we are interested in this type of information if/when collected. Please keep this organization informed with any new developments relative to the transportation industry. We (as well as many others) frequently use the traffic data that is provided by MnDOT and are thankful for it. We do however feel that rather than applying a standard % HCADT figure on the county and county State aid system that more accurate information needs to be employed. A recent freight study conducted in MnDOT District illustrated the great variances in traffic movement on non-state roadways and that using a standard calculation is not appropriate. Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Update Survey Results NARC Members. Responders Benton-Franklin Council of Governments, Washington Indian River y MPO, Florida The Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission Southeast Michigan Council of Governments Bi-State MPO, Arkansas Miami Valley Regional Planning Commission Pioneer Valley Planning Commission, Massachusetts November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group 6 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Value Value II. Given the definition above, how valuable is development of a statewide travel model ()? Please use a scale of (no value) to (very valuable).. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS Value II. Given the definition above, how valuable is development of a statewide travel model ()? Please use a scale of (no value) to (very valuable).. NARC Members November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group

9 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Value Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Value Other State DOTs NARC Members Other State DOTs NARC Members III. Value of.. III. Value of Regional Transportation Planning and Studies.. Interchange Justification Reports (non-mpo areas) 6.. Statewide Transportation Planning and Studies.. Highway Access Management and Traffic Impact Studies.. Statewide Transportation Improvement Plan (STIP).. Emergency Planning--Traffic Diversion and Evacuation.... Traffic Diversion for Construction; Detour Analysis and evaluation.... Project level traffic forecasting for Benefit-Cost Analysis.6. Bypass Studies.. Intercity Bus Planning.6. Evaluate River Crossings and Bridges (emphasis on state lines).. Transit alternative analysis 6.. Major Corridor Analysis (multi-county or multistate).. Passenger Rail Planning.. Funding and Programming -- evaluate funding scenarios (gas tax rates, etc.).6. Freight Planning.. Funding and Programming -- Project Prioritization and Programming (based on benefits and needs analysis).. Special Generators Analysis (airports, intermodal transfer centers, trade centers, ethanol plants, elevators, etc.).. Evaluate Impact of Network Changes Capacity Increases additional lanes, roadway improvements, new road.. November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Value Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Adequacy of Travel Demand Information Other State DOTs NARC Members Adequacy of Travel Demand Information Perspective of and Other State DOTs Other State DOT III. Value of Land Use Planning Recreational Travel/Tourism Planning ITS Planning location of VMS/DMS, ATIS, etc Intermodal Connector Studies Development of Statewide or Regional Performance Measures Weigh station location Pavement Life studies roadway wear, timing of rehabilitation Truck Size and Weight studies; Spring Load restrictions Safety Planning and Analysis Analyzing Impact of Trade Agreements Modal shift studies III. Importance of Planning Activity Regional Transportation Planning and Studies Statewide Transportation Planning and Studies Statewide Transportation Improvement Plan (STIP) Bypass Studies Evaluate River Crossings and Bridges (emphasis on state lines) Major Corridor Analysis (multi-county or multistate) Evaluate Impact of Network Changes Capacity Increases additional lanes, roadway improvements, new road..... Have Developing Planning on Developin g No Plans Non-motorized studies 6.. Level of importance: (not important) to (highly important) Others (write in) Public-Private Partnerships/ Toll analysis. November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Adequacy of Travel Demand Information Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Needs/Scenarios Adequacy of Travel Demand Information Perspective of and Other State DOTs Other State DOT Planning on Have Developing Developin III. Importance of Planning Activity g Interchange Justification Reports (non-mpo areas).... Highway Access Management and Traffic Impact Studies.... No Plans.. VI. Analyses/Scenarios Importance Traffic Forecasting (Automobile and Truck) Highway Scenario Analyses (evaluate network changes added lanes, improved roads, new roads, traffic diversions, traffic loadings on highways, impact of spring load restrictions, etc). MN MPOs. NARC Member s.. Other State DOTs Have Developin g.... Planning on Developing.. No Plans.. Emergency Planning--Traffic Diversion and Evacuation..... Truck Flow Analysis Traffic Diversion for Construction; Detour Analysis and evaluation Freight Planning Special Generators Analysis (airports, intermodal transfer centers, trade centers, ethanol plants, elevators, etc.) Intermodal Connector Studies Development of Statewide or Regional Performance Measures Modal shift studies Level of importance: (not important) to (highly important) MPO External and Through Trip Analysis Policy Analyses (e.g. in the area of finance, transportation funding scenarios, and program (project) prioritization using estimates of VMT and VHT) Special Generator Analysis (e.g. airports, ethanol plants, tourist attractions, intermodal transfer centers) Geographic Level of Analyses (longer distance trips and should be used to supplement the urbanized area travel demand models. For urbanized area studies, the should provide externalexternal and external-internal trips for the MPO models. For statewide corridors such as I-, the model should be the basis of the analysis outside of the urban areas, with the capability of the results being integrated with the urban area models, where appropriate) Intercity recreational travel analysis November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group

10 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Needs/Scenarios Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Needs/Scenarios VI. Analyses/Scenarios Importance Mn/DO T MN MPOs NARC Member s Other State DOTs Have Developin g Planning on Developing No Plans VI. Analyses/Scenarios Importance Evacuation Scenario Planning & Analysis Mn/DO T MN MPOs NARC Member s Other State DOTs Have Developin g Planning on Developing No Plans Safety Analysis (e.g. analyze and track crash information or relate functional class to crash rates) Routing Analysis Build/No Build Analysis (Identification of New Road Users). Rural Location Analysis (e.g. River Crossings and Bridges (especially at the state line) or Rural Interchange Justification Reports (non-mpo areas)) Commodity/Freight Flow Analysis (non-modal) Statewide Rail Freight Analysis Air and Rail Passenger Movements Others (write in) Revenue Estimation & Scenario Analysis (Using Toll/Mode Choice Model) Traffic Impact Studies (TIS) Provide Select Link Analysis Results to Developer s Consultants for Site Trip Distribution of DRI Land Use... Inter and Intrastate Bus Analysis Non-motorized Analysis Economic.... November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group 6 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR MODELING ISSUES AND CHALLENGES November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Modeling Issues and Challenges. TAZ Delineation Urbanized, Urban, rural, out of state. Trip Purposes HBW, NHB, HBO. Modes to Model Highway, Rail, Air, Water. Persons and Freight Modeling need to treated separately. Freight commodity versus truck flows 6. Transit Modeling within model or external. Sequential Demand Models -step or -step November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Task 6 Modeling Challenges. Disaggregate models aggregate in sense they predict the total or aggregate flows between the O-D pair by mode, route, and stratification and are usually calibrated on aggregated data in the form of trip tables. Interfacing with MPO models. Calibration and Validations. Modeling Challenges will depend on scale of modeling pursued. Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Task 6 Modeling Challenges. Evolutionary Approach start with simple base network and just highway and focus on areas where immediate gains can be made, and areas --and concentrate on just automobile and truck forecasting November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group 6

11 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR DATA ISSUES AND CHALLENGES Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Data Issues and Challenges. The movement of people and goods in the state by mode of transportation. The characteristics of freight and passenger transportation facilities, network and services in the state.. The population and economy of the state by geographic area. November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group 6 November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group 6 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Data Issues and Challenges. Development Factors land use, population, employment. Economic Factors GNP/GDP, inflation, personal income etc. Social Factors future lifestyle, aging of population, lesiure time. Economic Factors--regulations. Transportation facilities (location and characteristics) and services November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group 6 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Data Issues and Challenges 6. Techniques for data collection home interview--mail /telphone surveys, urban cordons, multiple screenline surveys, travel information for public transportation airline surveys, train surveys; commodity flow data November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group 6 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Data Issues and Challenges. What data we have? gather from survey and documentation and web sources. What data we need for what? develop matrix. Data Sources? what is out there?. Data Formats? What inventories?. Data Aggregation? is it at TAZ level we want? 6. Data Consistency? Over time and geography. Data Collection? quantitative, qualitative. Data Accuracy?. Data for calibration and validation? Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR RESOURCE NEEDS AND CHALLENGES November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group 6 November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group 66

12 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Resource Needs and Challenges. Time Issues. Staffing Issues. Training Issues. Cost Issues. Computing Infrastructure Issues 6. Institutional Arrangements. Public-Private Partnerships November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group 6 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Resource Challenges. Funding Sources. In House Expertise and Time. Use of Consultants and Universities. Initial Data Collection Costs. Recurring Data Maintenance Costs 6. Calibration Costs. Validation Costs. Training Costs. Cooperation with MPOs and Other Agencies Input data November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group 6 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Recommended Action Plan Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Task Recommended Action Plan Strategy Educate Stakeholders about ; Prioritize Needs and purpose of modeling Strategy Delineate TAZ and External Stations Strategy Assessment of Data Sources, Availability, Familiarity, and Gaps Strategy Develop or Build Base Network November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group 6 November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Task Recommended Action Plan Strategy Assessing and Refining Existing Modeling Efforts Strategy 6 Develop or Acquire New Data Sources Strategy Enhancing Regional Models Strategy Develop a Basic Statewide Model Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Task Recommended Action Plan Strategy Identify Stable Funding Sources for Development Strategy Interface Base with Regional/MPO Model Strategy Identify Institutional Considerations November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group

13 Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Task Recommended Action Plan Strategy Identify incremental development of Strategy Develop guidelines to assess the accuracy and benefit of Strategy Develop plan for updating data and models for November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Recommended Action Plan Recommended Strategy Near Term -- Year Among the near term strategies are: Strategy Educate Stakeholders about and Prioritize Needs Strategy Assessment of Existing Data Sources, Availability, and Familiarity Strategy -- Delineate TAZ Strategy Build Network with existing data and identify gaps Strategy Conceptual Design of Strategy Initial funding for Development Strategy Identify Champion/Group/Consultants Resource Commitment : up to $, November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Recommended Action Plan Recommended Strategy Medium Term to Years Among medium term strategies are: Strategy Assessing and Refining Existing Modeling Efforts Strategy 6 Develop or Acquire New Data Sources Strategy Enhancing Regional Models Strategy Develop Base Case Model for Passenger Movements and Commodity/Truck Flow Strategy Identify stable funding sources Strategy Interface with Regional and MPO models and Trendline forecasts Strategy Identify Institutional Considerations Resource: Up to, November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group Contract No. 6 (PS 6); NDSU Project# --FAR Recommended Action Plan Recommended Strategy Long Term to 6 years Among long term strategies are: Strategy Strategies for innovatively pooling of funds to enhance funds and their stability Strategy Cooperative Agreements with MPOs Strategy Incremental Development of Strategy Develop guidelines to assess the consistency, accuracy and benefit of Strategy Develop plan for updating data, TAZ, and models for Resource: Up to Million Dollars November, Presentation to nesota Modeling Group 6