September 11, 2018 by Chris Lehner

Transcription

1 September 11, 2018 by Chris Lehner Cattle USDA FEDERAL SLAUGHTER 9/10/2018, 119,000, a week ago, 2,000 and a year ago, 115,000 Boxed Beef Final September 10, 2018 CHOICE SELECT Current Cutout Values: Change from prior day (0.26) 1.84 Choice/Select spread: 7.37 Total Load Count Day Simple Average: NATIONAL BOXED BEEF CUTS NEGOTIATED SALES FOB Plant basis negotiated sales for delivery within 0-21-day period. Choice Cuts loads 1,812,489 pounds Select Cuts loads 974,376 pounds Trimmings loads 643,776 pounds Ground Beef loads 924,754 pounds Final September 10, 2018 Choice Select Primal Rib Primal Chuck Primal Round Primal Loin Primal Brisket Primal Short Plate Primal Flank Final September 7, 2018 Choice Select Primal Rib Primal Chuck Primal Round Primal Loin Primal Brisket Primal Short Plate Primal Flank

2 LOAD COUNT AND CUTOUT VALUE SUMMARY FOR PRIOR 5 DAYS CHOICE SELECT Date Choice Select Trim Grinds Total / / / / / ======================================================================= USDA BY-PRODUCT DROP VALUE (STEER) FOB CENTRAL U.S. September 21, :00 PM - Cattle on Feed Report September 24, :00 PM Cold Storage Report September 27, :00 PM Hogs and Pigs Report Sterling Marketing Beef Margins for Week ending September 7, 2018 per Head Packer Margins: Week ago: Feedlot Margins: Week ago: Last week bought for next week and for the following week. There were some feedlots selling cattle for delivery 15 to 30 days out. Prices were $ in the Midwest and $108 in Texas for next week and for cattle two plus weeks out Charts and technicals updated on morning reports DECEMBER 2018 LIVE CATTLE/DECEMBER 2018 LEAN HOGS - Slight gain for cattle Monday bouncing up to where 10 and 100 day moving averages converge. With pork gain and beef dropping, look for hogs to gain on cattle.

3 October Cattle/December Cattle Spread Spread correcting to have October $3.00 under December but until fund rolling is over, spread may bounce around.

4 OCTOBER 2018 LIVE CATTLE - Gapped open but couldn t hold highs. Volume was good at 31,250 contracts is strong resistance and supports starts at DECEMBER 2018 LIVE CATTLE Tried to rally on open but failed closing barely higher. Resistance is from to Support is from to

5 FEBRUARY 2019 LIVECATTLE Feb is overpriced with it 4.05 over December is strong resistance starts support. Down to Feeder Cattle The CME Feeder Index on 09/07/2018 is up 1.32 from previous day. Oklahoma National Stockyards - Oklahoma City, OK Livestock Auction Report for 9/10/2018 **Mid-Session*** Compared to last sale two weeks ago: Feeder steers trading higher. Feeder heifers unevenly steady on a limited test lb. steer and heifer calves 1.00 higher, lighter weights not well tested. NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY WEEK ENDING 08/24/2018

6 NOVEMBER 2018 FEEDER CATTLE Feeder volume is mediocre. Funds rolling October into November is resistance. Support at Lean Hogs Estimated Hog Slaughter 09/10/2018: 459,000. A week ago, 2,000, A year ago, 456,000 CME CASH HOG INDEX 9/06/ up.09 from previous day CME CASH PORK CUTOUT INDEX 09/07/2018 at up 32 from previous day Sterling Marketing Pork Margins for Week ending September 7, 2018 per Head Packer Margins: Week Ago: Farrow to Finish: (49.44). Week ago: (52.52) Moderate pork movement. Carcass up 57 cents in the morning by the afternoon down.71 cents.

7 ======================================================================== September 10, 2018 USDA Market News NATIONAL DAILY DIRECT HOG PRIOR DAY REPORT - SLAUGHTERED SWINE Slaughter Data for Friday, September 7, 2018 and Saturday, September 8, 2018 NEGOTIATED OTHER SWINE OTHER NEGOTIATED TOTALS/ MARKET OR PORK PURCHASE FORMULA WTD AVG FORMULA MARKET ARRGMENT (FUT/OPT)** FORMULA HEAD COUNT 18,783 67, , ,565 1, ,505 CARCASS BASE PRICE * AVERAGE NET PRICE * LOWEST NET LOT * HIGHEST NET LOT * AVERAGE LIVE WT * AVERAGE CARCASS WT * AVERAGE SORT LOSS * AVERAGE BACKFAT * 0.66 AVG LOIN DEPTH (LD) * 2.63 LEA (LD Converted) * 7.92 AVERAGE LEAN PERCENT * ============================================================= September 10, 2018 USDA Market News NATIONAL DAILY PORK REPORT FOB PLANT - Negotiated Sales FINAL Loads PORK CUTS : Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly Loads PORK CUTS : Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : ================================================================ Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly /10/ Change: /07/ /06/ /05/ /04/ Five Day Average

8 National Base Carcass Prices September 10, 2018 BASE PRICE: $ $46.50 Weighted Ave: $ higher National Live Hog Price Range: $ $33.50 Weighted Ave: $ higher October Lean Hogs/December Lean Hogs October is now over December. Look for spread to correct once fund rolling is over.

9 December 2018/February 2019 Lean Hog Spread. Far too wide. Morning Livestock OCTOBER 2018 LEAN HOGS - RALLIED TO WITHIN 17 CENTS OF OVERHEAD TRENDLINE AND 100 DAY MOVING AVERAGE. REISTANCE TODAY AT SUPPORT AT 53.52

10 DECEMBER HOGS STARTED OUT STRONG BUT FAILED INTO CLOSE. SUPPORT AT TO RESISTANCE FEBRUARY 2019 LEAN HOGS LIKE DECEMBER, STARTED OUT STRONG BUT GAVE UP GAIES TO SETTLE LOWER. FIRST SUPPORT TO All Charts from esignal Interactive, Inc