Planning Principles & Load Dispatching

Transcription

1 Planning Principles & Load Dispatching Natthajak Chomsiridechanan Medium-term Operation Planning Section Generation Operation Planning Department Power System Control and Operation Division tel IPP&SPP Seminar 16 November 2015

2 Outline Operation Planning Objectives Operation Planning Criteria Demand Forecasting Outage Scheduling Limitations Generating Capacity & Energy Emergency Preparations 2

3 Operation Planning Objectives Reliable supply of electricity Adequacy Security (N-1) Quality Standard - Voltage - Frequency Reasonable Production cost Environment Awareness 3

4 Long Term Generation outage plan Tariff calculation Financial analysis & Budget Fuel supply plan Problem warning Medium Term Energy resources planning for typical day and holiday season Plant commissioning program Considerations Determine Transmission Outage Place secondary fuel orders in advance of desired delivery date Short Term Operation Planning Criteria 48 periods plan for day ahead planning 4

5 Demand Forecasting Long Term 1-5 Years (Monthly Basis) Economics (GDP) EPPO data; Residential, Business, Industrial Growth Historical Data (PEA, MEA and direct sales) Medium Term Monthly Energy from Long Term forecasting 1-4 Months (Daily Basis) Historical Data (Pattern) Long Holidays and Festivals Short Term 1 Day (Half-Hour Basis) 5 Region CAC, NEC, SAC, NAC, MAC Weather Forecasting Historical Data (Pattern) 5

6 EGAT Noticed Light Load Days base on calendar year Table of AP Weight base on marginal cost Peak and Off-Peak in accordance with historical load pattern Rolling Outage Plan IPP 7 Years SPP 3 Years Outage Notice Monthly Outage (3 Months ahead) Weekly Outage Daily Availability Declaration / Prior Notice Shutdown Schedule 5 Years ahead Generation plan considered together e.g. marginal cost, gas shortage Outage Scheduling 6

7 Outage Scheduling EGAT & IPP Mechanism Dispatch Plan Fully Dispatch Availability Payment Weight Day ahead Payment Average (%) Mon-Sat: Peak Mon-Sat: Off-peak Sunday and Holiday Long Holiday 7 Summer Rainy Winter

8 Outage Scheduling SPP Mechanism Dispatch Plan 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 Partially Dispatch Peak and Off-Peak notice (Capacity Payment) Month ahead 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 MW 16,000 MW 16,000 14,000 14,000 12,000 12,000 10,000 10, :00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 Weekday - Summer Weekday - Winter 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 Sunday - Summer Sunday - Winter

9 Dispatching Limitations Ratio of Total Capacity Must Run Unit System Securities (N-1) Transmission System Capability 26% Must Take Purchase Contract Fuel Supply Contract Minimum take 25% 58% Irrigation EGAT s Hydro Generation BB, SK, SNR, VRK, RPB, LTK 7% Dispatch able Efficiency & Fuel Price Cost Rank 42% 9

10 Limitation (Gas Supply) East Gas - Natural Gas Fields - Gas Separation Plant - LNG 760 MMSCFD (Up to 1000 MMSCFD in Q4 2016) - Maximum Supply 1,300 MMSCFD - Wobbe Index BTU/SCF West Gas - Natural Gas Fields - Maximum Supply 1,260 MMSCFD - Heating Value >803 BTU/SCF - Partially Supply: Yadana+Yetagun or Yadana+Zawtika - Totally Shutdown in case of Yadana gas shortage 10

11 Limitation (Gas Pipeline) SPP Navanakorn, Rangsit SPP Nakhon Sawan U-Thai Nong Saeng Gulf Power SPP Korat WN+GPG+EPEC +GNS+GUT < 904 MMSCFD Wangnoi SB+NB West < 459 MMSCFD Mix < 609 MMSCFD North BKK SB E < 220 MMSCFD South BKK Bang Pakong EPEC BVW1-RA#6 Non-EGAT 81 MMSCFD RA#6 C3 C1,2 TECO RPCL RA#6-NB,SB Non-EGAT 25 MMSCFD Glow IPP GPSC #1 #3 #2 #4 Myanmar Gas RB Common Header East Gas 11 Gas Pipeline Configuration from 23 Sep 2015 Onward

12 Generating Capacity & Energy SPP 13.3% Total Capacity 37,412 Capacity by Owner (MW) Foreign 8.5% EGAT 41.2% SPP 15.8% 2015 Energy 181,879 GWh Energy by Owner (GWh) Foreign 8.2% EGAT 38.3% IPP 37.1% IPP 37.7% EGAT IPP SPP Foreign (FIPP+TNB+EDL) EGAT IPP SPP Foreign (FIPP+TNB+EDL) Peak Demand 27,346 hrs 11 Jun 2015

13 Generated Energy by Fuel DO FO 0.07% 1.00% Hydro 9.73% Renew + Other 2.32% Coal 20.11% Gas 66.76% 2014 Energy Generation and Purchase 177,580 GWh 13

14 Emergency Preparations Gas Supply Shortage Secondary Fuel Fuel Oil; 5-7 days inventory level Diesel Oil; 3 days inventory level Fuel Oil Exercise Dispatch/Plant request 3 times/year/gas turbine Transportation from fuel depot to power plant Oil Transportation planning 14

15 Q & A Thank you 15