Infrastructure Planning in an Imperfect World

Transcription

1 Infrastructure Planning in an Imperfect World ATSE Infrastructure Australia Melbourne April 9 th, 2013 Jordan Schwartz Manager, Infrastructure Policy The World Bank

2 Planning in a Development Context Challenges Data Capacity Horizon (high discount rate) Advantages High incremental impact returns gdp/cap 2

3 Tools for Planning in an Imperfect World What type of tool do we want? Communication friendly: strong message / visual impact (complements Cost Benefit Analysis) Growth Model Optimal Path Supply Chains Allows for prioritization according to objectives Sectoral Diagnostic Gravity Model Benchmarking Crowd Sourcing Can be built around original data if necessary 3

4 Tools & Methodology Objective of Analysis Data Perception Benchmarks and Calculated Indexes of performance in infrastructure Endowment and Efficiency Benchmarking; and Stochastic Frontier Analysis, DEA Optimal Path Analysis GIS based freight flow modeling Supply Chain Analyses Standardized methodology for rationalizing results. Crowd sourcing / Surveying Collective wisdom guidance. Statistical value. Input/Output Modeling For short term economic and/or employment impacts Tools of Analysis Contrast investment needs by sector and country Understand the constraints and needs of sectors and services Quantify Time, Distance and Cost Savings from transport infrastructure and border crossing improvements. Identify bottlenecks in logistics infrastructure & services for agricultural products. To convert perception and opinion into guidance for prioritization. Prioritize investments according to growth and job multipliers. Dataset of performance and access indicators by country and sector Original survey data on efficiency Detailed maps of transport networks. Calculations of potential travel speeds by type of road. Extensive interviews with producers, exporters, truckers, and customs brokers. Individual surveying of educated crowd, quantifiable questions, robust samples. Industry matrices for a given economy. Labor costs, leakage, division of skilled/unskilled. 4

5 Benchmarking and Indexes May Point the Direction Insufficient for Planning Purposes Selected Categories of the WCI s Infrastructure Pillar Top and Bottom Performers in Central America Electricity Top Performer Bottom Performer Costa Rica Nicaragua Roads El Salvador Costa Rica Air Transport Panama Nicaragua Ports Panama Costa Rica Source: World Economic Forum Overview of Infrastructure Stock and Quality Panama Scheduled available airline seat kilometer per Road Roughness Index in Costa Rica efficiency week originating Nicaragua Paved in National ports in country, Roads, might millions, 2008not the Nicaragua 2009 Honduras Honduras32% Guatemala Guatemala El Salvador El Salvador 39% Costa Rica Costa Rica Central America Panama Latin America* Access to Electricity % of households with access to electricity Available Airline Seats Kilometers Physical efficiency and time same in CA. The next graphs show the data Source: Lanamme, Universidad de Costa Rica, % Fair Intermediate 8% Poor Very Poor % 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Data from IATA. * Latin America other than Central America. Source: Acajutla, World Energy El Salvador. Outlook 2010 and 2000, IEA. 5

6 Ports Stochastic Frontier Analysis: Physical Indicator After transshipment ports, Limón ranks first in CA Efficiency 100% 80% 60% 40% PAN Balboa Average Efficiency of Ports in LAC PAN Manzanillo CRI Limon HON Cortés GUA Quetzal GUA Barrios GUA Sto. Tomas de Castilla NIC Corinto Central America s Ports Transshipment Ports *other than Panama 20% 0% Source: LCSSD Economics Unit Ports Input Variables: Total area of the port; Length of the Container berths; Number of Container Cranes Output Variable: Annual TEUs handled by the port 6

7 Benchmarking Logistics Performance Indicators Components Arab world sub regions' performance in the six core logistics areas (Source: LPI 2010.) 7

8 Supply Chain Analysis: Survey based Tool for Planning and Prioritizing Product Selection Preliminary Mapping Surveys (via interviews) Analysis High Volume & Low Connectivity Group Selection & Poverty Implications Understand Product Movement Identify Principal Actors & Local Partners Actors Identification of Logistical Bottlenecks Data Collection of Expenses, Travel Times and Distances Quantify the effects of reported bottlenecks Design the Structure of Logistics Expense Results Identification of Logistics Bottlenecks at the Micro level Structure of Logistical Expenses Section: 8

9 Supply Chain Analysis US$ Ct/K Pineapple from Costa Rica Structure of Logistical Expenses Including storage and customs fees, logistics costs > 40% of the final price. Ex Works Price US$ 0.48/k With the expense of wait times factored in, transport costs are equal to 36% of the final price. CIF Price + Duties US$ 0.86/k Margins 4% Warehousing costs 6% Transport Costs 36% Duties, customs fees and phitosanitary certificates 2% Handling and conditioning, packing, and other admin. costs 19% Farm gate price 34% Supply Chain Analysis 9

10 Farm Gate Producer Profit Transport Farm Gate to Distribution Center Handling at Distribution Center Transport From Distribution Center to Border Customs Agency Services CR Customs Time Costa Rica Duty Customs Agency Services Nicaragua Customs Time Nicaragua Transport From Border to Center of Distribution Insurance Intermediary Margin Handling at Distribution Center Transport from Distribution Center to Supermarket Small exporter has a 27.5 cent extra cost due to a less efficient logistics system Farm Gate Producer Profit Intermediary Margin Transport Farm Gate to Distribution Center Handling at Distribution Center Transport from Distribution Center to Border Customs Agency Services Costa Rica Customs Time Costa Rica Duty Customs Agency Services Nicaragua Customs Time Nicaragua Transport From Border to Center of Distribution Handling at Distribution Center Transport form Distribution Center to Open Handling Losses Storage Supply Chain Analysis Tomato Exports between Costa Rica and Nicaragua 10

11 Supply Chain Analysis Frozen Beef Exports Puerto Cortés Estimated Number of Hours to Complete Each Step Las Manos Best Case Scenario Worst Case Scenario Expenses Transport Expenses $0.10/kg $0.18/kg Port Expenses Supply Chain Analysis Chilamatillo Weigh Station Juigalpa $0.02/kg $0.14/kg Time In Transit 14 hours 5 days At Port Under the Worst Case Scenario, 1.5 logistics days expenses 5.5 days almost double to more than 21% of Distance: the C.I.F. 862 Price km 11

12 Optimal Path Analysis Identifies the most time efficient route to connect a point of origin to a destination given a friction surface FRICTION Representation of the difficulty to move through a pixelated space. Difficulty may be expressed in terms of time or costs FRICTION FACTORS Applied to the movement of cargo Delays associated with poor quality of roads. Delays associated with inadequate road coverage. City Congestion Wait times at border crossings and ports Terrain slope (fixed effect)

13 Optimal Path Analysis It takes 64 seconds to travel 800 meters following a Pixelated representation straight line at 45km/h on average. However, ofmoving time space through the least10 friction route Optimal Path it is possible: Origin O8 D Time (sec) Each pixel provides information on 1. to decrease travel time by 14%, its friction: the time needed to from 64 to 55 seconds. cross from one side to another. 2. to increase the average speed by 53%,from45to69km/h Distance (m 2 ) Pixel size 100 m 2 Optimal Path Destination

14 Optimal paths for Central American exports: Effect of eliminating the waiting time at borders and congestion in metropolitan areas of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua Considering both City Congestion and waiting time at the borders Removing both City Congestion and waiting time at the borders (but without considering the final origins and destinations of trade, capacity constraints at ports, or changes in road conditions) Source: World Bank LCSSD Economics Unit

15 Planning for Alternative Land Use Crowdsourcing Site A Almacenam. en Frío Vivienda Menos factible Ecoturismo/ Conservación Parque Logístico Más factible Astillero Suministro de Buques Almacena. de Combustibles 40% 61% 43% 52% 13% 15% 17% Resumen de los usos con más del 50% de respuestas 4 y 5, por sector de ocupación del encuestado. Sector Público Sector Privado Vivienda P. Logístico Ecoturismo Vivienda 43% 24% 33% 24% 87% 63% 71% Categoría Más Factible determinada por respuestas 4 o 5 y la categoría Menos Factible determinada por respuestas 1 o 2. Las respuestas 3 no son consideradas en este análisis.

16 Crowdsourcing Site B Almacenam. en Frío Vivienda Menos factible Ecoturismo/ Conservación Parque Logístico Más factible Astillero Suministro de Buques Almacena. de Combustibles 35% 25% 87% 13% 33% 50% 51% 34% 6% 89% 18% 12% 74% 88% Resumen de los usos con más del 50% de respuestas 4 y 5, por sector de ocupación del encuestado. Sector Público Sector Privado Vivienda Vivienda P. Logístico Categoría Más Factible determinada por respuestas 4 o 5 y la categoría Menos Factible determinada por respuestas 1 o 2. Las respuestas 3 no son consideradas en este análisis.

17 Crowd Sourcing Results Summary Most Feasible Uses Porcentaje de Respuestas 4 y 5, respuestas con más del 50% en color. Resumen de los Usos con más del 50% de respuestas 4 y 5 60% 30% 0% Horoko Isla Largo Remo Telfers Davis Veracruz Sherman Sur Sherman Sur Davis Telfers Isla Largo Remo Horoko Veracruz Ecoturismo/Conserv., Parque Logístico, Astillero, Suministro de Buques. Vivienda, Parque Logístico. Parque Logístico, Suministro de Buques. Ecoturismo/Conserv., Astillero, Suministro de Buques, Alm. De Combustibles. Vivienda, Parque Logístico. Vivienda, Ecoturismo/Conserv., Astillero.

18 Planning to Maximize Job Creation Alternative Land Use Relative Labor Analysis Direct and Indirect Jobs Per 100 m2 Per $100,000 18

19 Planning to Maximize Growth & Job Multipliers Economic and employment impact of increased demand for the ten potential uses in the reverted areas Economic Growth Multipliers Growth Storage and Fuel Supply Logistics Park Auxiliary Maritime Activities Shipyard 1. The size of the markers = the annual sales of each sector in Economic Growth Multipliers are the incremental increase (direct and indirect) in GDP generated by a $1 increase in demand in the sector. 3. Employment multipliers are the incremental increase (direct and indirect) in number of jobs in the economy due to an increase of $1 million in demand. Canal Tourism Port Operations Container Maintainance Cruise Terminal Residential High Rise Cold Storage and Distribution Employment Employment Generation per US$ Mill 19

20 Planning for Maximizing Short Term Job Creation Input Output Model and Labor Supply Surveying Qualified workers Non-qualified workers Domestic inputs (mainly material) Foreign inputs (mainly equipment) Others Total Annual Direct Employment (per US$1B/yr) [*] Transport Colombia - Access to neigborhoods (streets) 15% 6% 49% 16% 14% 100% 22,500 Colombia - Feeder routes for Transmilenio 43% 27% 23% 6% 99% 35,833 Brazil - Roads 3% 9% 22% 63% 3% 100% 16,577 Argentina- Rosario - highways 1.3% 0.3% 60% 38% 0% 100% 1,650 Water and Sanitation Honduras - Improvement on water captation 28% 12% 40% 20% 100% 43,333 Honduras - Rehabilatation of water networks 30% 20% 40% 10% 100% 58,333 Honduras - Expansion of water networks 20% 30% 40% 10% 100% 66,667 Honduras - New treatment plant 10% 10% 80% 0% 100% 25,000 Colombia - Expansion of WSS networks 8% 56% 32% 4% 100% 100,000 Brazil - Rain Drainage networks 8% 16% 48% 28% 0% 100% 34,001 Brazil - Sewerage 4% 11% 68% 17% 0% 100% 21,746 Energy US - Solar PV 3%-5% 95%-97% 100% 2,700 US - Wind Power 4%-6% 94%-96% 100% 3,400 US - Biomass 1%-2% 98%-99% 100% 700 US - Coal-fired 1%-2% 98%-99% 100% 750 US - Natural gas-fired 2%-4% 96%-98% 100% 1,700 Brazil - Hydropower 5%-10% 90%-95% 100% 4,500 Peru - Rural Electrification 14% 7% 26% 53% 0% 100% 23,000 [*] These estimates were based on an hourly wage of $3 for non qualified workers and $6/hr for qualified one for 2,000 working hours a year. Water & Sanitation Network Expansion ~ 10,000 Rural Road Maintenance 25,000 to 50, Power <100 Highway ~ 1,000