Predicting the Future & Managing the Present Ship Energy Assessment, Condition Optimisation, Routing Enhancement System (SEA-CORES)

Transcription

1 1 Predicting the Future & Managing the Present Ship Energy Assessment, Condition Optimisation, Routing Enhancement System (SEA-CORES) Martin Briddon MBE - James Fisher Marine Services (Mimic) Adrian Skidmore - BAE Systems, Maritime Services, Energy Solutions & Services

2 2 Context Modern Ships are sensor/data rich platforms Platform Management Systems, engine performance, navigation, fuel, voyage data recorders (VDRs).. When integrated intelligently, this wealth of data can create valuable operational intelligence Compliance with legislation e.g. emissions, safety and efficiency improvements drive demand for more intelligent systems Ship Operators (Government and Merchant sector) share common objectives: Maximise Output Capability service delivered, endurance, speed for minimal resources Maximise platform availability with minimal loss of service Minimise maintenance, fuel, labour operating cost Maintain highest levels of safety with minimal stress to platform

3 3 How do you quantify vessel efficiency? Running Costs are directly proportional to overall vessel efficiency how do you quantify EFFICIENCY? It is too easy to say it is cost per mile based on the fuel consumption need to look at bigger picture Efficiency is.. the ability to avoid wasting materials, energy, effort, money and time in doing something or in producing a desired result. More generally, it is the ability to do things well, successfully and without waste, while delivering maximum capacity.

4 4 Ship Design plays one part It does not matter how good Ship Design is, the overall efficiency of a vessel through-life depends on four major factors: Design Deployment Operations Maintenance

5 5 SEA-CORES addresses Deployment, Operations & Maintenance Design The original design of a ship can be altered based on gaining improved efficiency, but is often expensive & technically risky, taking vessel out of service Deployment The region and type of operation is often difficult to change. It can be done but is generally driven by commercial efficiency needs. (e.g. new market opportunity Operations This provides the greatest opportunity to improve overall efficiency. Being able to demonstrate where a company is operating inefficiently is often the best way to motivate efficiency Maintenance Leaving maintenance until it falls due by calendar date or even a condition monitoring threshold may impede any efficiency savings

6 6 Some dilemmas faced by current operators.. SEA CORES helps to inform the How much capability is lost by slowing down to save fuel? operator in each of these areas, looking beyond just fuel efficiency Will reducing 60 maintenance KPI s have costs been developed, wiped out by increased grouped: fuel cost? How much money am I wasting on Financial unnecessary fuel by not optimising trim? Am I compromising reliability by Fuel reducing & Emissions engine speed and increasing vibration of key plant? How much capability will I lose through-life by slamming into rough seas to maintain schedule? Ship Condition Does this shorten safe operating life? Tasking & Capability Will re-routing to calmer routes impact cost and operational capability? Optimising ONE operating parameter can be detrimental to overall performance

7 7 Solutions all lead to a Big Data Challenge Multi-dimensional data analysis of: Weather and Sea Conditions Navigation and Routing Hull Condition Drag, Stress and Strain Hull and Plant Vibration Torque Fuel flow Trim Service load....data is a raw material. How we collect it, how we handle and exploit it will determine our fighting edge, providing we have the connectivity and the right form of information architecture. Sir George Zambellas, DSEI 2015

8 8 Consortium Delivering Capability Consortium Lead Energy Management Design SEA-CORES UX System Integration Trial Management Data Analytics Stress/Strain sensing Data Management Business Intelligence SEA-CORES Platform Drive Motor Power Signature Analysis Machine Learning Weather Routing Trim Management Remote Positioning Ship Sensors Trial vessel MIMIC vibration BAE SYSTEMS 2016

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10 INCLUDE THE APPROPRIATE COMPANY AND NATIONAL SECURITY MARKINGS (IF REQUIRED). GUIDANCE CAN BE FOUND HERE 10 What information can be derived? Onboard Sensors Data Acquisition, Management & Analysis Ship Hull Energy Performance & Trends (e.g. hull fouling Build-up) Ship Engine Usage Patterns & Impact of Engine Faults on Behaviour Ship Energy Intensity & Anomalies Multi-dimensional data analysis of: Operational Defects and Ship Performance during these defect periods Can it be detected? What is the impact on fuel burn? Weather and Sea Conditions how do these affect fuel burn rate? Navigation and Routing decisions impacting fuel burn Hull Condition Drag, Stress and Strain - impact on hydrodynamics and additional fuel burn as a result of increased drag Hull & Plant Vibration & Strain impact on platform life and reliability Torque hull fouling and propeller condition dynamic profiling Fuel flow what proportion is used for service load and propulsive load? Crew Energy Behaviour Clusters of common Throttle Lever settings Comparison of ship fuel usage And power/speed profiles across a class - calibrated for sea-state INCLUDE THE APPROPRIATE BAE SYSTEMS COMPANY MARKING (IF REQUIRED). GUIDANCE CAN BE FOUND HERE Include the appropriate copyright legend. Include appropriate trademark legends (if required). Guidance can be found HERE (see final slide for restrictions on use)

11 Commercial in Confidence 11 This has led to development of 60 KPIs.. FUEL MAINTENANCE THROUGHPUT/CAPABILITY PLANT LIFE OTHER COST E.G. INSURANCE BAE SYSTEMS 2016 Commercial in Confidence

12 12 Key ship events view KPI Groupings KPI Summary Status (Normal, Concern, Abnormal)

13 13 A SEA-CORES Genetic Algorithm has been developed to predict future performance and conduct trade-offs, prior to implementation. Fitness functions form the core. One function is based on a full cost model derived for fuel, maintenance, other costs and income. The other function is based on the importance weighting of relative performance of possible solutions. The Genetic Algorithm allows complex what-if scenarios to be constructed and impact analysis visualised on other factors fuel consumption, ship condition, asset life, capability, etc. Genetic Algorithm approach adopted due to: Multi-dimensional problem - cannot be solved by direct calculation Large solution space requires an efficient search algorithm Non-linear and discontinuous objective can not be searched sequentially Easily scalable as parameters are added, removed or modified.

14 14 What does the future look like? KPI Impact Analysis Powered by a Genetic Algorithm

15 INCLUDE THE APPROPRIATE COMPANY AND NATIONAL SECURITY MARKINGS (IF REQUIRED). GUIDANCE CAN BE FOUND HERE 15 Summary of Business Benefits Maximise Output Capability service delivered, endurance, speed for minimal resources e.g. Less wear/tear on power generation and propulsion equipment (power/hours) Maximise platform availability with minimal loss of service Minimise maintenance, fuel, labour operating costs Maintain highest levels of safety with minimal stress to platform INCLUDE THE APPROPRIATE BAE SYSTEMS COMPANY MARKING (IF REQUIRED). GUIDANCE CAN BE FOUND HERE Include the appropriate copyright legend. Include appropriate trademark legends (if required). Guidance can be found HERE (see final slide for restrictions on use)

16 16 Some operators are doing a lot to improve efficiency in all aspects of their operations.. and there are others who don t seem to care. English Channel October 2016

17 INCLUDE THE APPROPRIATE COMPANY AND NATIONAL SECURITY MARKINGS (IF REQUIRED). GUIDANCE CAN BE FOUND HERE 17 Project Summary Widens the Trade-space beyond energy efficiency Platform agnostic fit Makes use of existing sensor infrastructure may be no need for new infrastructure Demonstration in available in exhibition area Thank you INCLUDE THE APPROPRIATE BAE SYSTEMS COMPANY MARKING (IF REQUIRED). GUIDANCE CAN BE FOUND HERE Include the appropriate copyright legend. Include appropriate trademark legends (if required). Guidance can be found HERE (see final slide for restrictions on use)

18 INCLUDE THE APPROPRIATE COMPANY AND NATIONAL SECURITY MARKINGS (IF REQUIRED). GUIDANCE CAN BE FOUND HERE 18 Backup Slides INCLUDE THE APPROPRIATE BAE SYSTEMS COMPANY MARKING (IF REQUIRED). GUIDANCE CAN BE FOUND HERE Include the appropriate copyright legend. Include appropriate trademark legends (if required). Guidance can be found HERE (see final slide for restrictions on use)

19 19 A symbol of what we are trying to solve is illustrated in the picture below It is not just the inefficient main engine but symbolic of a company that is burning away their business by not paying attention to those areas that cost real money and lead to deeper consequences