International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV) - 3 rd Edition - Results 2011

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1 International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV) - 3 rd Edition - Results 2011 Dr. Markus Fischer Q-Cells SE Director R&D Processes March 26 Berlin

2 AGENDA Introduction of the ITRPV - aim and structure Cost of Ownership (CoO) considerations for PV ITRPV 3 rd edition some Results 2011 Summary and Outlook 2

3 What is the Roadmap? Initiated by Crystalline Silicon PV Technology and Manufacturing (CTM) group: - Started w/ 9 cell manufacturing companies in June Publication of 1st edition at the 4th PV FMF 2010 (supported by SEMI PV Group) - Extended along the value chain + including of new companies - Publication of 2nd edition at the 5th PV FMF rd edition to be published march 26 th ITRPV supporting working group key contributors along the value chain: 3

4 Aim of the Roadmap - informs about expected technology trends in the field of crystalline silicon (c-si) PV - shows ways to support the required cost reduction along the value chain - no technical solutions are given to the industry identify areas of required improvement to the supplier industry intensify the dialog about required improvements between manufacturers and - customers, suppliers, institutes describing a common path towards a competitive PV based power generation as base of a sustainable PV market SILICON CRYSTAL. WAFER CELL MODULE SYSTEM Poly Si ingot wafer cell module system Current value chain elements considered by the ITRPV 4

5 ITRPV Methodology + Structure Active working group of international PV manufacturers along the c-si value chain Identifying and focusing on key technology parameters in regular working sessions Anonymous data collection from participants + Independent data processing by SEMI Workshops with machine and materials suppliers and Instituts Yearly up-date and publication of roadmap results (data agreed by all participants) Parameters in main areas are Parameters are discussed along the value chain for: Materials - Crystallization & Wafering - Cell processing - Module manufacturing Processes Products 5

6 Historic PV- Learning Curve learning curve: cost reduction of avg. 20% when doubling installation/shipments Avarage sales price [2011U$/Wp distortions of learning curve occurred due to market situation since 2010 back on trend Analysis in Literature show: 2006 cell efficiency improvement alone is 2011 insufficient Cumulated PV Module shipments [MWp] Cost reduction trend can only be realized by combining two key elements: reduction of manufacturing cost per piece + Improvement of cell efficiency 6

7 AGENDA Introduction of the ITRPV - aim and structure Cost of Ownership (CoO) considerations for PV ITRPV 3 rd edition some Results 2011 Summary and Outlook 7

8 Cost of Ownership (CoO) consideration for PV Task: Get cost down by working on identified cost drivers Motivation ITRPV contributors along c-si value chain use standardized CoO-Model Based on SEMI Standards E35 (CoO calculation), E10 (machine utilization) and E79 (equipment efficiency) Predefined cost categories incl.yield loss permit unified data input results can be used in tool ordering process for comparison puposes and for process cost optimization Applicable to single equipments, process steps, production lines and complete fabs valid for crystallization, wafering, cell processing, module building Fab Productronica Managers 2011 Forum Berlin Munich March November th ITRPV Challenges 3 rd Edition for suppliers Results 2011 and manufacturers 8

9 CoO Elements CoO calculation elements based on: SEMI E35 (calculation), E10 (utilization), and E79 (efficiency) -Throughput - Productivity productive time depending from Up-, Standby-, Engineering-, Down (shed., unshed.) Time, Overall Equipment Efficiency dependend from availability-, performance-, and Quality Efficency - Depreciation - Floor Space - Materials /Consumables - Utilities - Waste Disposal - Labour - Cost of yield loss Bold = Elements addressed by the current 3 rd edition of ITRPV Fab Productronica Managers 2011 Forum Berlin Munich March November th ITRPV Challenges 3 rd Edition for suppliers Results 2011 and manufacturers 9

10 CoO analysis of ITRPV Cost elements analysis reveals: - main cost driver to attack consumables non Si- materials, (at module >70%) - labour important at lower automation levels - depreciation + floor space important for all value chain phases - utilities less important for module assembly ITRPV gives guidance for improved cost positions in the main fields: Materials, Processes, and Technology ITRPV Challenges 3 rd Edition for suppliers Results 2011 and manufacturers 10

11 AGENDA Introduction of the ITRPV - aim and structure Cost of Ownership (CoO) considerations for PV ITRPV 3 rd edition some Results 2011 Summary and Outlook 11

12 ITRPV Results 2012 Materials - Wafer Poly Si price droped during the last year : approaches to cost level 2010: 67$/kg 1H 2011: 50$/kg E 2011: 30$/kg March 16 th : 28$/kg w/ Siemens Process <20$/kg possible w/o sacrificing quality Focus is put again on Materials and process cost ITRPV predicts for wafers: Efficient use of Poly Si requires reduction of Wafer thickness 156mm x 156mm remains main stream cell format larger wafers to appear in production earliest

13 ITRPV Results 2011 Materials - Cell Reduction of Silver consumption per cell - necessary as Silver is most expensive material - Cu is supposed to replace Silver starting in 2015 but for Cu solutions for reliability and adhesion have to be available - Critical: ITRPV asked for lead free pastes available in 2012 no competitive Pb-free pastes have been available until today 13

14 ITRPV Results 2011 Materials - Modules Cost of module manufacturing are sensitive to all materials (aprox. equal share) improvements are needed in performance and price - Glass thickness reduction below 2.8 mm too challenging - Reduction of front side glass reflectivity by antireflective coating - Reduction of absorption of encapsulant - Reduction of cutting losses for foils in production flow 14

15 ITRPV Results 2011 Processes Manufacturing (1) - Using economy of scale requires high throughput approaches in crystallization: - a trend to larger ingots is predicted - for mono crystallization an increase of ingot mass is expected 15

16 ITRPV Results 2011 Processes Manufacturing (2) Cell manufacturing process: - Mechanical yield loss during cell production has to be reduced - Tool up times need to be improved special efforts are necessary in metallization and testing 16

17 ITRPV Results 2010 Processes Manufacturing (3) - the cell production tools have to get increased Throughputs results in lower depreciation and Labour cost the gap between front- and back end should be closed in-line and clustered fab concepts are possible Year Front end [wafer/h] (chemical + thermal) Single line back end [wafer/h] (metallization + classification) Improvements result in reduction of relative invest for new cell fabs over the next years (estimates base on p-type concepts with comparable or only slightly increased number of processing steps) 17

18 ITRPV Results 2010 Processes Manufacturing (4) In module processing yield has to be improved Throughput is expected to double until 2020 in encapsulation and interconnection increase in interconnect possible by continues improvement and new process technologies starting 2015 (rear contact cells ) All improvements will result in lowering the Number of operators 18

19 ITRPV Results 2011 Processes Technology (cell 1) - Recombination losses have to be reduced - In the crystalline Si bulk material - at the front side of the cell - et the back side of the cell AL-BSF not suitable below 200fA/cm² color coding indicates the progress new processes are about to be introduced (not yet in mass production) mono like material boosts material performance of casting process tools and processes w/ lower CoO have to be available - Increased emitter sheet resistance is needed to reduced FS recombination currents values for n-doped emitters are shown new pasts and/or SE enable contacting 19

20 ITRPV Results 2011 Processes Technology (cell 2) - Reduction of finger width w/o losses in conductivity new techniques enable lines down to 80µm 60µm possible but not in mass prod. further improvement expected w/ shift to alternative metallization (Copper) - Improved alignment accuracy 15µm are possible in production needed for SE, double printing and new cell concepts 20

21 ITRPV Results 2011 Processes (module) Trend of Module to cell power loss according to ITRPV - Improvements in 2013 due to antireflective glass - New interconnect and encapsulation techniques result in further improvements Gap between mono-si and multi-si will remain valid 21

22 ITRPV Results 2011 Products (crystallization / wafer) Material landscape for c-si is expected to change upcoming trend for mono-like may eliminate standard multi due to performance it may become substitute for p-type mono material as well mono material for future high eta concepts will be n-type-mono 22

23 ITRPV Results 2011 Products (cell/module) Average efficiencies of p-and n-type c-si cells will improve - stabilized efficiencies only are considered - shown are cells out of a state of the art mass production line - gap between mono and multi remains valid Trend of output power of 60 cell modules - cell efficiency improvements are included - described improvements of module technology are included - trend implies shift to full square Mono starting in for mono-like Si the same cell-to-module-loss was assumed as for mono-si 23

24 ITRPV Results 2011 Products (cell/module) Assumption about share of modules using BC-Cells - Implementation of BC-Cells on broader base depends from availability of cost efficient module technology - Limited possibilities for retrofits of existing lines Double side contacted cell technologies are expected to stay the mainstream until

25 AGENDA Introduction of the ITRPV - aim and structure Cost of Ownership (CoO) considerations for PV ITRPV 3 rd edition some Results 2011 Summary and Outlook 25

26 Summary ITRPV shows: - cost reduction has been main technology driver of PV - ways to reach cost reduction of PV generated electricity - cost per piece have to be reduced continuously and parallel to efficiency increases ITRPV is becoming a common platform for manufacturers, suppliers, and customers Conclusion: - Further reduction of Si-PV manufacturing cost is possible without sacrificing quality and reliability - Increasing cell efficiencies will support the cost reduction Next Steps of ITRPV: - include more manufactures from Asia and America - further extension along the value chain to systems 3 rd edition available under ITRPV Challenges 3 rd Edition for suppliers Results 2011 and manufacturers 26

27 THANK YOU Productronica 2011 Munich November Fab Managers 15th Forum 27