TASK 11.0 FINAL CAPITAL COST ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY REPORT

Transcription

1 Mayagüez Transit Study TASK 11.0 FINAL CAPITAL COST ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY REPORT Prepared For: Municipality of Mayagüez Economic Development Office archud- AECOM May 2015

2 Table of Contents 1. Introduction Alternatives Standard Cost Categories SCC Build Annualized Worksheet Estimation Methodology MTS Major Cost Categories Estimation Process Unit Costs... 6 Appendix A Standard Cost Categories Tables... A-1 Appendix B Alternative Maps... B-1 List of Tables Table A-1: Standard Cost Categories Table... A-1 Table A-2: MTS TSM Alternative Unit Costs... A-3 Table A-3: MTS Build Alternative Unit Costs... A-4 List of Figures Figure B-1: Alternatives IA and IB... B-1 Figure B-2: Alternative II... B-2 Figure B-3: Alternative III... B-3 i

3 1. Introduction This report presents the methodology, key assumptions, and overall framework to be used in the development of capital cost estimates for the Mayagüez Transit Study (MTS) Alternatives Analysis. The MTS is currently at approximately five percent design level with a transportation systems management (TSM) and four Build Alternatives remaining, following the completion of the first screening process. The capital cost methodology was prepared consistent with the most recent version of Reporting Instructions for the Section 5309 Small Starts Criteria available on the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) website, 1 adapted to the specific project elements of the MTS Build Alternatives. 2. Alternatives Capital cost estimates were developed for the TSM Alternative and for the four Build Alternatives. The TSM Alternative focuses on less capital intensive means of improving or optimizing existing transit operations in the two study corridors. In the context of the MTS, this alternative begins with potential lowcost investments in both the Mayagüez Integrated Transit (TIM in Spanish) and público systems. Improvements include the addition of two fixed routes with stops served by públicos, modifications to existing TIM routes, and certain physical improvements, such as traffic signal optimization and creation of a limited number of queue bypass lanes, and provision of GPS and radio equipment in vehicles. In order to facilitate a consistent comparison of both capital and operations and maintenance (O&M) costs between the various alternatives (see the Task 12.0 Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Cost Methodology report for O&M costs), Former Alternative I has been reconceptualised with two options. Alternative IA remains the same as Alternative I along PR-2 in the North-South Corridor. Minor capital improvements in the East-West Corridor include traffic signal optimization and the creation of queue bypass lanes at three signalized intersections (Candelaria Street at Betances Street, Méndez Vigo Street at Betances Street, and Méndez Vigo Street at Martínez Nadal Street). Under Alternative IA, bus rapid transit (BRT) service would be operated in the North-South Corridor, with East-West Corridor service being provided by TIM Route 3 according to its current service pattern. Alternative IB also remains the same as Alternative I along PR-2 in the North-South Corridor. However, in the East-West Corridor, capital improvements would be constructed consistent with the other two Build Alternatives (Alternatives II and III). Under Alternative IB, BRT service would be operated in the North- South Corridor, with East-West Corridor service being provided by TIM Route 3 stepped up to handle the passenger volumes and transfer requirements associated with the new BRT service. In other words, the only difference between Alternatives IB, II, and III pertains to operations and vehicle fleet. As a result, both O&M and vehicle fleet costs can be directly compared. The four Build Alternatives are summarized in the list below and are shown geographically in Appendix B. Alternatives IA and IB provide service to 26 stops on PR-2 in the North-South Corridor. Alternatives II and III provide the same services on the North-South Corridor with additional service to Mayagüez town center east of PR-2 using Méndez Vigo and Candelaria Streets. Alternative II provides this service with two routes, one northern route and one southern route. Alternative III provides this service with one continuous route. Each of the Build alternatives has a 16 hour span of service with 12 minute peak frequency and 15 minute off-peak frequency. 1 FTA Reporting Instructions for the Section 5309 Small Starts Criteria (July 2014). Available at 1

4 Alternative IA o BRT service on North-South Corridor with a dedicated transit lane o TIM service on East-West Corridor with limited physical improvements Alternative IB o BRT service on North-South Corridor with a dedicated transit lane o TIM service on East-West Corridor with with a dedicated transit lane Alternative II o BRT service on both corridors with a dedicated transit lane o Service provided by separate north and south routes Alternative III o BRT service on both corridors with a dedicated transit lane o Service provided by one through-route 3. Standard Cost Categories Capital cost elements are derived from the FTA Standard Cost Category (SCC) worksheet. Project sponsors are required to submit capital cost information using the most recent Small Starts SCC Workbook issued by FTA. 2 The SCC format allows for use of an extensive database of cost information gathered from projects across the country, adjusted for regional cost influences. The SCC structure accommodates all project elements in 10 major cost categories, including soft costs and contingencies as separate cost categories (Small Project Capital costs must be reported in 2015 constant dollars): 10 Guideway (Running Ways) and Track Elements 20 Stations, Stops, Terminals, Intermodal 30 Support Facilities: Yards, Shops, Administration Buildings 40 Sitework and Special Conditions 50 Systems 60 Right-of-Way (ROW), Land, Existing Improvements 70 Vehicles 80 Professional Services 90 Unallocated Contingency 100 Finance Charges With unit costs and basic quantities for standard categories, use of SCC simplifies the comparison between diverse alternatives and gauges the reasonability of costs for each alternative. The use of a standard format for capital costs increases the reliability of cost estimates for projects in various stages of development from planning to preliminary engineering and forward through final design. Use of SCC in capital cost estimates also helps to rationalize project evaluation and comparative evaluations during the decision-making process. The SCC Workbook is comprised of several tables outlining different project funding aspects: Build Main Project Description Inflation Schedule Build Annualized Funding Sources by Cost Category Funding Sources by Year 2 FTA Standard Cost Category for Capital Projects. Small Starts SCC Workbook (Excel) is available at: 2

5 3.1 SCC Build Annualized Worksheet After capital costs in constant or base year dollars are estimated, the Build Annualized Worksheet automatically calculates the annualized federal share for the project based on the useful lives of the various cost items, an established discount rate, and the information on project funding sources entered by the project sponsor in the Fund Source by Category Worksheet of the Small Starts SCC workbook. The annualized federal share for the project is an input to the calculation of cost effectiveness and environmental benefits. The Build Annualized Worksheet follows two assumptions: Useful Life: The Build Annualized Worksheet provides the project sponsor with the opportunity to claim anywhere from 12 to 18 years for the estimated useful life for buses on SCC Line If the project sponsor claims a useful life longer than 12 years, documentation demonstrating experience with maintaining buses beyond 12 years (e.g., National Transit Database records) must be provided supporting the reasonability of such a claim. Unallocated Contingency: Base Year costs are automatically populated in the Build Annualized Worksheet from the Build Main Worksheet. However, Unallocated Contingency must be manually distributed across the line items according to perceived risks. 4. Estimation Methodology The MTS capital cost estimation methodology is applicable to the full range of service types for the proposed alternatives. The cost estimation is conceptual, since the project is only at the five percent engineering design phase. 4.1 MTS Major Cost Categories Major capital cost categories for the MTS, based on conceptual design are summarized in the following subsections. Specific costing elements, part of the detailed cost estimate, will be included in the SCC worksheet. SCC 10 - Guideway and Track Elements Costs associated with in-street improvements, such as street repaving in dedicated BRT lane segments, restriping, and passenger station pads are included under this category. Build Alternatives include BRT lanes with asphalt pavement and of cast-in-place concrete pads where vehicles stop at each station and concrete pavement where BRT vehicles will be traveling through existing intersections. The TSM Alternative includes converting parking spaces and removing curb extensions to create queue jump lanes at three intersections. SCC 20 - Stations, Stops, Terminals, Intermodal Costs associated with foundations for stations, station canopies, and basic civil amenities are included in this category. Station shelters are assumed to be prefabricated for all alternatives. Limited passenger amenities will be provided at proposed BRT stations (see SCC 50 Systems). Limited terminal facilities and no new intermodal facilities included. SCC 30 - Support Facilities: Yards, Shops, Administration Buildings Build alternatives include a storage facility for all BRT vehicles and TIM Trolleys with fueling and washing capabilities and a urea facility for diesel vehicles. The storage facility would be open-air and would have expansion capability. Heavy and light maintenance will be handled off-site by a third party and, therefore, 3

6 shop facilities are not included in the SCC worksheet. The TSM Alternative does not include support facilities. SCC 40 - Sitework and Special Conditions Sitework and special conditions include costs associated with demolition, clearing, earthwork, site utilities, utility relocation, and site structures, including retaining walls, sound walls, landscaping, etc. Build Alternatives entail relocation of utilities in the proposed running ways and BRT station areas. Utility relocation includes relocation of power lines and water and sewer. Most of the utility relocation is associated with overhead wires/pole lines. Retaining walls are needed at many locations along the proposed BRT routes. The TSM Alternative requires sitework for pedestrian access and landscaping. SCC 50 - Systems Systems elements for Build Alternatives include traffic and BRT signals, ticket vending/validating machines (TVMs) at stations (and potentially a limited number of other locations), fiber optics communication, passenger information display system (PIDS), security cameras, and an emergency call button. BRT vehicle detection at intersections is required for transit signal priority. The TSM Alternative includes systems for transit signal priority. SCC 60 - Right-of-Way, Land, Existing Improvements This cost category addresses the general ROW acquisition needs of the project. Because the alternatives, as defined, do not require ROW acquisition, there will be no ROW costs estimated in this category. SCC 70 - Vehicles This cost category includes acquisition of the BRT fleet and professional services associated with the vehicle component of the Build Alternatives. The cost for professional services includes the costs for agency staff oversight and administration, vehicle consultants, design and manufacturing contractors, legal counsel, warranty and insurance costs, and related costs. The required fleet is determined by the number of vehicles needed to operate the proposed service during the peak period, plus an additional 12 percent for layover and 20 percent for spares. The MTS anticipates procuring BRT vehicles no larger than 40 feet in length, likely with some form of cleaner fuel technology. Specific vehicle technology still needs to be confirmed. The TSM Alternative and Alternative IB include acquiring additional diesel trolleys for increased service along TIM Route 3 in the East-West Corridor. Currently, TIM uses Ford E-450 Shuttles with a capacity of 16 passengers. SCC 80 - Professional Services Professional services are included in any capital cost estimate to represent costs of design, construction management (CM), project management for design and construction, construction administration and management, insurance, permits and fees, and training/start-up/testing. Professional services costs are calculated separately as a percentage of construction costs only, excluding vehicle procurement and ROW costs. These costs are normally itemized below the construction cost subtotal when calculating the total cost. Percentages are applied individually based on the assigned SCC (see Table A-1 in Appendix A). 4

7 SCC 90 - Contingency Consistent with FTA guidelines, contingency addresses unforeseen conditions which may be discovered during construction, such as utility conflicts or geotechnical issues. It covers imperfections in estimating methods associated with the development stage of a project. In a statistical sense, contingency is the estimated percentage by which a calculated value may differ from its true or final value. Contingency is typically included in a cost estimate as an allowance, based on the level of engineering design completed; as the level of design increases, contingency consequently reduces. The contingency allowance is used to account for those items of work (and their corresponding costs) which may not be readily apparent or cannot be quantified at the current level of design, such as: Unforeseen engineering design/construction complexity. Unforeseen schedule delays. Degree of available knowledge about technology. Effect of market and local economy on prices and components. Soil/rock conditions, especially in areas of underground structures. Public agency issues - local authorities may request changes in alignment or station locations. Existing facilities - Upon further investigation, facilities such as highway bridges, streets, transit structures, embankments, or major utilities may require more or less work than originally assumed. Public sensitivity - Mitigation measures may be required in certain locations because of public concern with noise and vibration. Wetland mitigation - The full extent of any wetland impacted by the project may vary. Unforeseen Right-of-Way acquisition. For the purposes of this estimating program, contingency will be assigned to two major categories allocated and unallocated contingencies. Allocated Contingency Allocated contingency is used for projects where the engineering design level is less than 30 percent complete. The MTS is at approximately five percent design, and as a result, allocated contingency is applicable. Allocated contingency allows for the many unknowns that exist in the early stages of project development, so that the initial quote for project cost is not dramatically lower than the later design stage cost estimates. Based on a less than five percent design level, a contingency allowance in the range of five percent to 30 percent is allocated, based on individual construction cost categories for Puerto Rico. The exact percentage selected for each cost category is based on local professional judgment and experience related to the cost variability typically seen for items of work within a particular cost category. For the MTS, based on local expertise, the recommended allocated contingency amount is 30 percent. Unallocated Contingency Unallocated contingency primarily addresses unforeseen existing conditions, engineering complexities, or economic conditions at the time of design. The reasons for applying this contingency are similar to those for allocated contingency, primarily as an allowance to ensure that costs for a project are not underestimated relative to actual expenditures during construction. Once a project reaches the engineering design level of 30 percent or greater, sufficient details have generally been identified on which to base both quantity and unit price development. However, there will always be unforeseen existing conditions, schedule delays, or other issues which cannot be captured during design. For the MTS, based on local expertise, the recommended unallocated contingency is 30 percent. 5

8 4.2 Estimation Process A concept level capital cost estimate was completed for each of the four Build Alternatives described in Section 4. The first step in the estimation process was determining which SCCs apply to the MTS. This was accomplished through discussion with project team members and reviewing project concept level plans and documents. Conceptual plans and diagrams show the proposed alignment for each alternative, station locations, and segments where different types of construction would be needed. Appendix A shows the SCC table with applicable categories identified. The second step was developing unit costs for each category. For BRT exclusive lane elements, typical cross-section drawings were reviewed, which included unit pricing by linear distance. For station elements, assumptions were made based on use of a prefabricated shelter and typical fare vending to support a Proof of Payment (POP) fare collection system. Other construction, such as utility pole relocation, was estimated by event (per pole) basis. Professional services were estimated as a percent of total project cost based on similar projects. Other categories were estimated as an allowance funding amount, percentage amount, or were derived from similar projects. All estimates were made for Puerto Rico prices, provided by local experts, where possible. The third step was to identify quantities for each cost category. A matrix of typical sections and exclusive lane segments were used to determine the linear distances needed for specific construction elements, such as paving and retaining walls. Project plans were used to determine the number of stations, queue jump lanes, earthwork, and objects needing relocation. The number of vehicles is described in the Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Cost Estimation Methodology. The final step was to apply the estimated unit costs to the total number of project units. Many categories scale linearly where total cost is derived from the product of the cost per unit and total number of units. All quantities were rounded up to the nearest unit and entered into the SCC worksheet. All estimates were prepared in Base Year dollars, typically assumed to be the current calendar year. The estimates for Phase I will be expressed in year 2015 constant dollars. 5. Unit Costs Unit costs are developed for BRT lane construction, station elements, retaining walls, tree mitigation, and vehicles. All other project elements are estimated on individual bases. Local Puerto Rico construction engineers estimated the unit costs for BRT lane and retaining wall construction elements, as well as obstacle relocations. Vehicle costs were estimated from the Nova LFS Smart Bus, a model recently purchased by the Puerto Rico Metropolitan Bus Authority. The station shelter cost was estimated from a supplier with experience shipping to Puerto Rico. Station elements include foundation, communications, security cameras, and ticket vending/validating machines. Table A-1 in Appendix A gives a full list of cost categories and prices. TSM Alternative unit costs are shown in Table A-2 and Build Alternative unit costs are shown in Table A-3. 6

9 Appendix A Standard Cost Categories Tables Table A-1: Standard Cost Categories Table Applicable to SCC Cost Category MTS Build Alternatives? 10 GUIDEWAY & TRACK ELEMENTS (route miles) Guideway: At-grade exclusive right-ofway Guideway: At-grade semi-exclusive (allows cross-traffic) Notes Typical cross-section pricing Guideway: At-grade in mixed traffic Typical cross-section pricing Guideway: Aerial structure Guideway: Built-up fill Typical cross-section pricing Guideway: Underground cut & cover Guideway: Underground tunnel Guideway: Retained cut or fill Typical cross-section pricing Track: Direct fixation Track: Embedded Track: Ballasted Track: Special (switches, turnouts) Track: Vibration and noise dampening 20 STATIONS, STOPS, TERMINALS, INTERMODAL (number) At-grade station, stop, shelter, mall, terminal, platform Aerial station, stop, shelter, mall, terminal, platform Underground station, stop, shelter, mall, terminal, platform Other stations, landings, terminals: Intermodal, ferry, trolley, etc Joint development Automobile parking multi-story structure Elevators, escalators 30 SUPPORT FACILITIES: YARDS, SHOPS, ADMINISTRATION BUILDINGS Administration Building: Office, sales, storage, revenue counting Light Maintenance Facility Heavy Maintenance Facility Storage or Maintenance of Way Building Yard and Yard Track Number of stations and dimensions for concrete pads in project plans. Assume prefab stations. Park-and-Ride lots covered under O&M. Facility for storage, fueling, and cleaning only. Maintenance will be by a 3rd party. A-1

10 SCC Cost Category 40 SITEWORK & SPECIAL CONDITIONS Applicable to MTS Build Alternatives? Demolition, Clearing, Earthwork Site Utilities, Utility Relocation Hazardous material, contaminated soil removal/mitigation, ground water treatments Environmental mitigation, e.g., wetlands, historic/archeologic, parks Site structures including retaining walls, sound walls Pedestrian / bike access and accommodation, landscaping Automobile, bus, van accessways including roads, parking lots Temporary Facilities and other indirect costs during construction 50 SYSTEMS Train control and signals Traffic signals and crossing protection Traction power supply: substations Traction power distribution: catenary and third rail Communications Fare collection system and equipment Central Control 60 ROW, LAND, EXISTING IMPROVEMENTS Purchase or lease of real estate Relocation of existing households and businesses 70 VEHICLES (number) Light Rail Heavy Rail Commuter Rail Bus Other Non-revenue vehicles Notes Roadway features such as islands and medians needing reshaping or removal have been identified as well as trees, poles, etc., in project plans. Utilities are mainly aerial. Plans show some poles relocating. Assume none exist. Assume none exist. Retaining wall typical section. Allowance funding amount, $1M - $2M. Allowance funding amount, $1M - $2M. Upgrades to existing signals including transit signal priority at some locations. ITS applications such as bus detections. Each station equipped with fare vending. Estimate for number of vehicles in the O&M methodology report. A-2

11 SCC Cost Category Applicable to MTS Build Alternatives? Notes Spare parts Percent of total vehicle cost. 80 PROFESSIONAL SERVICES (applies to Cats ) Project Development 3% of total construction cost Engineering (not applicable to Small Starts) Project Management for Design and Construction Construction Administration & Management Professional Liability and other Non- Construction Insurance Legal, Permits, Review fees by other agencies, cities, etc. Surveys, Testing, Investigation, Inspection 10% of total construction cost. 2% of total construction cost. 2% of total construction cost. 5% of total construction cost. 2% of total construction cost. 9% of total construction cost Start up 2% of total construction cost. Table A-2: MTS TSM Alternative Unit Costs 10 GUIDEWAY AND TRACK ELEMENTS Cost Unit Per Linear Meter Widening Condition 6 (convert parking to BRT lane) $120 (LnM) Widening Condition 8 (neckdown elimination) $375 Per LnM Pedestrian Crossing $880 Per Intersection 20 STATIONS, STOPS, TERMINALS, INTERMODAL Cost Unit Prefabricated Modular 5' x 8' $5,060 Per Station Shipping 3 ocean containers to Mayagüez $16,500 Lump Sum Signs and Posts $500 Per Station Concrete 10' x 15' Station Pad $1,720 Per Station Tactile Warning Strip 2' x 15' $850 Per Station 40 SITEWORK & SPECIAL CONDITIONS Cost Unit Pedestrian / bike access and accommodation, landscaping $0.5M - $1M Allowance 50 SYSTEMS Cost Unit Transit Signal Priority $13,500 Per Intersection GPS and Radio $3,000 Per Vehicle N/S Corridor Traffic Signal Controller Upgrade $3,000 Per Intersection E/W Corridor Signal Modernization with Detectors $7,000 Per Intersection A-3

12 Table A-3: MTS Build Alternative Unit Costs Item Cost Unit 10 GUIDEWAY AND TRACK ELEMENTS Per Linear Meter Widening Condition 1 (w < 1/2 shoulder) $369 (LnM) Widening Condition 2 (w = 1/2 shoulder) $450 Per LnM Widening Condition 3 (w = full shoulder) $325 Per LnM Widening Condition 4 (w = shoulder rehab.) $130 Per LnM Widening Condition 5 (median widening) $610 Per LnM Widening Condition 6 (convert parking to BRT lane) $120 Per LnM Widening Condition 7A (sidewalk widening 1' to 2') $165 Per LnM Widening Condition 7B (sidewalk widening 2' to 4') $186 Per LnM Widening Condition 8 (neckdown elimination) $375 Per LnM Bus Stop Concrete Slab $1,255 Per LnM Bus Lane Full Colorized Inlaid Thermoplastic Markings $200 Per LnM Signs and Posts $750 Per Intersection Gantries for Overhead Dedicated Lane Signs $9,500 Per Location Hot plant bituminous surface course (S-1) $120 Per LnM Hot plant bituminous base course (B-1) $120 Per LnM Aggregate Base Course $35 Per CuM Subbase Course $20 Per CuM Lean Concrete Base $110 Per SqM Cold Milling $55 Per LnM Demolition $1,200 Per Intersection Removal of Pavement Markings $200 Per Intersection Pedestrian Crossing $880 Per intersection Traffic Signal Resetting $1,500 Per Intersection Pedestrian Signal $5,500 Per Signal Curb $45 Per LnM 20 STATIONS, STOPS, TERMINALS, INTERMODAL Cost Unit Prefabricated Modular 5' x 15' $8,270 Per Station Prefabricated Modular 2'8" x 10' $5,845 Per Station Shipping 3 ocean containers to Mayagüez $16,500 Lump Sum Concrete 10' x 45' Station Pad $5,155 Per Station Concrete 10' x 90' Station Pad $10,300 Per Station Tactile Warning Strip 2' x 45' $2,500 Per Station Tactile Warning Strip 2' x 90' $5,000 Per Station Tactile Warning Strip 2' x 25' $1,389 Per Station Lighting Foundation, Pole, and Luminaire $10,500 Per Unit Trash Receptacles, System Map, Station Icon, Etc. $15,000 Per Station 30 SUPPORT FACILITIES: YARDS, SHOPS, ADMIN. BLDGS Cost Unit Storage Facility $5,100 Per Vehicle Fueling Facility $800,000 Lump Sum Washing Facility $175,000 Lump Sum Urea Facility $10,000 Lump Sum 40 SITEWORK & SPECIAL CONDITIONS Cost Unit Condition Section Edge A (wall widening 1' to 3') $1,150 Per LnM Condition Section Edge B (wall widening 3' to 6') $1,550 Per LnM Condition Section Edge C (wall widening > 6') $3,300 Per LnM Condition Section Edge D (no wall) $535 Per LnM A-4

13 Item Cost Unit Condition Section Edge E (bus stop area) $1,255 Per LnM Condition Section Edge F $95 Per LnM Pedestrian / bike access and accommodation, landscaping $1M - $2M Allowance Temporary Facilities and other indirect costs during construction $1M - $2M Allowance Highway Light Relocation $125 Per LnM PREPA Lighting Relocation $250 Per Light Post Tree Removal $500 Per Tree Tree Migration $750 Per Tree Tree Pruning $1,500 Per Location Drainage Relocation N-S $220 Per LnM Catch Basin and Storm Sewer $250 Per LnM Sidewalk Modification (outside categories 7A and 7B) $110 Per LnM 50 SYSTEMS Cost Unit Transit Signal Priority $13,500 Per Intersection Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) $5,000 Per Vehicle N/S Corridor Traffic Signal Controller Upgrade $3,000 Per Intersection E/W Corridor Signal Modernization with Detectors $7,000 Per Intersection Communications (including Passenger Information Display) $45,000 Per Station Closed Circuit TV System $18,750 Per Station Ticket Vending/Validating Machines (TVMs) $45,000 Per Unit Stand Alone Validator $4,000 Per Unit Ticket Station Hardware/Software $5,000 Per Station Ticket Central Hardware/Software $200,000 Lump Sum Emergency Call Button $4,800 Per Station 70 VEHICLES Cost Unit BRT 40' Clean Diesel Nova LFS Smart Buses $500,000 Per Vehicle Spare parts $30,000 Per Vehicle TIM Trolley $154,000 Per Vehicle Spare parts $9,240 Per Vehicle A-5

14 Appendix B Alternative Maps Figure B-1: Alternatives IA and IB B-1

15 Figure B-2: Alternative II B-2

16 Figure B-3: Alternative III B-3