Forecast and Opportunity Analysis of Cold Chain Logistics Demand of Fresh Agricultural Products under the Integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei

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1 Open Journal of Social Sciences, 2017, 5, hp:// ISSN Online: ISSN Prin: Forecas and Opporuniy Analysis of Cold Chain Logisics Demand of Fresh Agriculural Producs under he Inegraion of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Tongjuan Liu, Songmiao Li, Shaobo Wei Informaion Insiue, Beijing Wuzi Universiy, Beijing, China How o cie his paper: Liu, T.J., Li, S.M. and Wei, S.B. (2017) Forecas and Opporuniy Analysis of Cold Chain Logisics Demand of Fresh Agriculural Producs under he Inegraion of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Open Journal of Social Sciences, 5, hps://doi.org/ /jss Received: June 5, 2017 Acceped: Ocober 10, 2017 Published: Ocober 13, 2017 Absrac This paper is based on he naional sraegy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei inegraion. A firs, we make sraegy analysis on he developmen of cold chain logisics of fresh agriculural producs, using he PEST analysis model o analyze he macro environmen and SWOT analysis model o disinguish srenghs, weaknesses, opporuniies and hreas i faced now meiculously, hen we discuss he developmen sraegy combinaion under he inegraion of he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Secondly, we analyze he cold chain logisics demand of fresh agriculural producs in view of he inegraion of he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under he fresh agriculural producs caegories. The exponenial smoohing is used o forecas firs, hen he secondary exponenial smoohing model is se up o make he fiing figure wih he acual and prediced value. In addiion, we forecas he oupu in he nex few years and analyze he resuls. Finally, combining wih he developmen sraegy combinaion and predicion analysis, we pu forward he developmen paern and give a prospec of fresh agriculural producs cold chain logisics. Keywords Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Inegraion, Sraegic Combinaion, Demand Forecasing, Exponenial Smoohing, Circulaion Sysem 1. Inroducion The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei inegraion no only brings o he hree regions economic benefis, bu also simulaes he developmen of he indusry capaciy, in DOI: /jss Oc. 13, Open Journal of Social Sciences

2 T. J. Liu e al. which he demand for fresh agriculural producs rising, which makes cold chain logisics ge a huge opporuniy for developmen. So making an opporuniy analysis and demand forecasing for fresh agriculural producs cold chain logisics can promoe he coordinaed developmen of he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in cold chain logisics. 2. Analysis on he Developmen Sraegy of Cold Chain Logisics of Fresh Agriculural Producs under he Inegraion of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei 2.1. PEST Analysis on he Developmen of Cold Chain Logisics of Fresh Agriculural Producs in he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region 1) Policy analysis In 2016, he Minisry of Agriculure and oher deparmens joinly issued he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agriculural producs circulaion sysem innovaion acion plan. The 13h five-year plan poins ou ha we need o vigorously develop cold chain logisics. The sraegy of he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cooperaion, is a long-erm plan ha needs o be compleed in hree areas [1]. 2) Economic analysis On he macro level, he economic developmen level in he Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region is relaively high, he GDP reached billion yuan in 2015, accouning for percen of he counry s GDP. The following is a comparison in 2015 (see Table 1). Micro-poin of view, he sufficien producion of six kinds of fresh agriculural producs in he hree regions ogeher creaes a prerequisie for he developmen of cold chain logisics (see Table 2). To analyze and forecas he cold chain logisics demand of fresh agriculural producs can achieve a reasonable allocaion of resources [2]. 3) Social analysis Wih he consumpion of fresh agriculural producs gradually increase, he relevan sorage and end sales of cold chain logisics demand is also increasing as people pay more aenion o food qualiy and safey [3]. The emergence of fresh Table 1. A comparison of he oal economic aggregae of he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in Region GDP Per capia GDP The added value of primary indusry The added value of secondary indusry The added value of eriary indusry The proporion of added value of each indusry (%) Beijing 23, , , Tianjin 16, , Hebei 29, , , , oal 69, , , , a Source: Yearbook 2015, for he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebe Region. DOI: /jss Open Journal of Social Sciences

3 T. J. Liu e al. Table 2. The oupu of major agriculural producs in he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in Region Vegeables Frui Mea Milk Eggs Aquaic producs Beijing Tianjin Hebei Toal e-commerce has also acceleraed he demand for cold chain logisics. According o he saisics, China has over 90 billion yuan of fresh e-commerce ransacions in ) Technical analysis Saisics show ha, here are abou 900 professional refrigeraed vehicles in Hebei province, abou 2800 emperaure conrol processing and soring faciliies. In addiion, Tianjin is o speed up he modernizaion consrucion of cold sorage, more han 40 exising refrigeraor SWOT Analysis on he Developmen of Cold Chain Logisics of Fresh Agriculural Producs in he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region 1) Srengh analysis a) Marke poenial is huge The consumpion of agriculural producs is increasing in hree areas. As shown in Figure 1, he demand for hese six ypes of fresh agriculural producs has also increased seadily for nearly six years; we can make a conclusion ha his high demand for fresh agriculural producs may lead o a high claim for cold chain logisics. b) Three Disric raffic inegraion The Inegraion of he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region sars wih he implemenaion of he consrucion of he raffic inegraion. The hree-dimensional convenien ransporaion sysem makes he logisics indusry more prosperous. 2) Weakness analysis a) Low degree of informaizaion I is found ha here is lack of unified cold chain logisics informaion sharing plaform o manage he huge informaion. The informaizaion level was 90%, only play a role in conrolling he emperaure and preservaion in he process of cold chain ransporaion. b) Cold chain logisics faciliies lag behind A presen, China s cold chain logisics ranspor infrasrucure is relaively old, logisic faciliies in he coasal ciies are more complee han in he inland ciy. There are only 6970 railway refrigeraed rucks accouning for wo percen of he oal running vehicles. DOI: /jss Open Journal of Social Sciences

4 T. J. Liu e al. Figure 1. The oupu of agriculural producs in he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in recen six years. 3) Opporuniy analysis a) Governmen suppor The Minisry of Transpor said ha eigh major projecs in he Beijing-Tian- jin-hebei region will be promoed in 2016, including promoe he consrucion of highway projecs and form he modern por cluser. b) The demand for cold chain logisics is increasing According o he daa, China has been reaching more han 100 million ons of cold chain demand scale in 2015 and mainaining he growh rae of abou 15% of he cold chain logisics marke. The oal populaion of he Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region has exceeded 100 million. I is conceivable ha he demand for cold chain logisics will rise. 4) Threa analysis a) Lack of inernaional compeiiveness In recen years, many inernaional famous logisics enerprises ener he Chinese marke. I is a growing hrea because China is lack of inernaional compeiiveness. b) Cold chain logisics inpu cos is high, he risk is big Cold chain logisics marke has a higher hreshold and a higher cos of invesmen compared o oher logisics marke. In order o keep he freshness of fresh agriculural producs, he operaion emphasizes ha each process is inerlocking and he risk is high The Sraegic Combinaion of Cold Chain Logisics Developmen of Fresh Agriculural Producs in he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region 1) Increase he consrucion of infrasrucure In he face of he compeiion in he cold chain logisics marke, he governmen should increase invesmen in cold chain logisics infrasrucure equip- DOI: /jss Open Journal of Social Sciences

5 T. J. Liu e al. men, improving or inroducing equipmen, coupled wih reasonable use and managemen. 2) Esablish a perfec cold chain logisics sysem The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should srenghen he cold chain logisics informaion communicaion and sharing, and joinly esablish a perfec cold chain logisics sysem, which can achieve he enire cold chain logisics monioring and managemen. 3) Vigorously develop he hird pary cold chain logisics Improving he hird pary logisics enerprise s developmen will grealy improve he efficiency of cold chain logisics in our counry. A he same ime, ousourcing of logisics aciviies is beneficial o he enerprises o focus on he core business. 3. Analysis on he Demand of Cold Chain Logisics of Fresh Agriculural Producs under he Inegraion of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei According o he daa, he oupu of hese six kinds of agriculural producs in Beijing (see Table 3), Tianjin (see Table 4), Hebei Province (see Table 5) in are as follows respecively. Table 3. The oupu of Agriculural Producs in Beijing from 2011 o Years Vegeables Frui Mea Milk Eggs Aquaic producs Table 4. The oupu of agriculural producs in Tianjin from 2011 o Years Vegeables Frui Mea Milk Eggs Aquaic producs DOI: /jss Open Journal of Social Sciences

6 T. J. Liu e al. Table 5. The oupu of agriculural producs in Hebei from 2011 o Years Vegeables Frui Mea Milk Eggs Aquaic producs Predicion Mehod of Cold Chain Logisics Demand for Fresh Agriculural Producs [4] This paper akes he exponenial smoohing mehod proposed by Rober G. Brown, which builds a secondary exponenial smoohing model based on an exponenial smoohing, making he daa more reliable. The exponenial smoohing formula is ( ) ( 1) ( 1) = S αy α S Y : The acual value of period ( 1) S : he prediced value of period ( 1) S 1 : he prediced value of he - 1 period α: he smoohing exponen The secondary exponenial smoohing formula is ( 2) S ( 2) S 1 ( ) ( 2) ( 2) = α + 1 α 1 S S S : he second exponenial smoohing value of period : he second exponenial smoohing value of - 1 period The quadraic exponenial smoohing model is Y = A + B T + ( T) ( 1) ( 2) = 2 A S S ( 1 ) ( 1) ( 2) = B α α S S 3.2. Predicion of Cold Chain Logisics Demand for Fresh Agriculural Producs under he Single Smoohing Mehod We use he exponenial smoohing mehod o forecas he yield of all kinds of fresh agriculural producs in he hree places, he mos criical sep is o deermine he value of he smoohing coefficien α, he values of α are 0.1, 0.3, 0.5 and 0.9 respecively, and he prediced values of he demand for he fresh agriculural producs wih he four smoohing coefficiens are calculaed. And hen compare he error size beween prediced value and acual value, and selec he smoohing facor in he case of minimum error, and use i for he secondary exponenial smoohing. DOI: /jss Open Journal of Social Sciences

7 T. J. Liu e al. 1) Predicion of Cold Chain Logisics Demand for Fresh Agriculural Producs under he Single Exponenial Smoohing Mehod in Beijing. The following is he cold chain demand based on he daa of he poulry egg producion during in Beijing (see Table 6). Similarly, using he mehod menioned above,we can idenify ha he smoohing coefficiens of vegeables, fruis, mea, milk, eggs and aquaic producs in Beijing were as follows: Vegeables: ; Frui: ; Mea: ; milk: α = 0.5; eggs: ; aquaic producs:. 2) Predicion of Cold Chain Logisics Demand for Fresh Agriculural Producs under he Single Smoohing Mehod in Tianjin and Hebei. In he same way, using he mehod menioned above, we can also ge he smoohing coefficiens in Tianjin respecively: Vegeables: α = 0.1; Frui: α = 0.1; Mea: α = 0.3; milk: α = 0.1; eggs: ; aquaic producs:. Wha is more, Jus like he wo regions, he smoohing coefficiens in Hebei were as follows: Vegeable: ; Frui: ; Mea: : milk: α = 0.1; eggs: ; aquaic producs: Predicion of Cold Chain Logisics Demand for Fresh Agriculural Producs under he Secondary Exponenial Smoohing Mehod According o he exponenial smoohing mehod, he corresponding smoohing coefficien α of each kind of fresh agriculural producs is seleced for he second smoohing predicion. Based on he resuls of he secondary exponenial smoohing and he acual value, he fiing siuaion is observed and he proposed model is used o forecas he sales of various agriculural producs from 2017 o ) Predicion of Cold Chain Logisics Demand for Fresh Agriculural Producs under he Secondary Exponenial Smoohing Mehod in Beijing. Based on he secondary exponenial smoohing mehod, he forecas sales of poulry eggs and he demand volume of cold chain logisics in Beijing in he pas Table 6. The forecas demand and error of Beijing egg cold chain logisics by he single smoohing mehod. Years Acual oupu Prediced value Absolue error α = 0.1 α = 0.3 α = 0.5 α = 0.1 α = 0.3 α = oal average DOI: /jss Open Journal of Social Sciences

8 T. J. Liu e al. 6 years (see Table 7). According o he acual value of Beijing egg sales and he forecas value of cold chain logisics demand in he pas 6 years, as shown in Figure 2. From Figure 2, we can observe ha he fiing relaionship is very good beween he prediced value and he acual value. Therefore, we can use his mehod o predic he poulry eggs sales and cold chain logisics demand in he nex five years in Beijing (see Table 8). Similarly, we can predic he six caegories of producs demand in he nex five years in Beijing by using he smoohing coefficiens hey have. As shown in Table 9 below. 2) Predicion of Cold Chain Logisics Demand for Fresh Agriculural Producs under he Secondary Exponenial Smoohing Mehod in Tianjin and Hebei. Respecively, using he same mehod, we can ge he forecas sales and he demand in he nex five years in Tianjin (see Table 10) and Hebei (see Table 11). Table 7. Beijing egg sales and cold chain logisics demand in recen six years. Years Acual value Prediced value Table 8. Forecas of sales and cold chain logisics demand for eggs in Beijing in he nex five years. Years Prediced value Table 9. Forecas of sales and cold chain logisics demand for six kinds of agriculural producs in Beijing in he nex five years. Years Vegeables Frui Mea Milk α = 0.5 Eggs Aquaic producs DOI: /jss Open Journal of Social Sciences

9 T. J. Liu e al. Figure 2. Fiing diagram of sales and prediced value of eggs in secondary exponenial smoohing mehod (). Table 10. Forecas of sales and cold chain logisics demand for six kinds of agriculural producs in Tianjin in he nex five years. Years Vegeables α = 0.1 Frui α = 0.1 Mea α = 0.3 Milk α = 0.1 Eggs Aquaic producs Table 11. Forecas of sales and cold chain logisics demand for six kinds of agriculural producs in Hebei in he nex five years. Years Vegeables Frui Mea Milk α = 0.1 Eggs Aquaic producs Predicive Resuls Analysis Summarize he forecas analysis above, he forecas sales of various agriculural producs in he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in he period of areas DOI: /jss Open Journal of Social Sciences

10 T. J. Liu e al. shown in Table 12. Coupled wih he yield of various agriculural producs in he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during , his paper analyzes he rend of agriculural producs sales in he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in he recen 10 years, as shown in Figure 3. As we can see from he Figure 3, he overall demand of fresh agriculural producs show a seady upward rend in he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This requires flexibiliy and imeliness in cold chain logisics and i is necessary o make he cold chain logisics bigger and sronger during he period of inegraion. 4. Conclusion In he 21s cenury, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are acively responding o he ever-changing indusry environmen and adaping o he environmen o make argeed measures o he cold chain logisics sysem. Through he PEST and SWOT analysis, we pu forward he developmen sraegic combinaion of cold chain logisics. Through fresh agriculural producs demand forecasing analysis Figure 3. Sales rend of agriculural producs in he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Table 12. Forecas of sales and cold chain logisics demand of six kinds of agriculural producs in he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in he nex five years. Years Vegeables Frui Mea Milk Eggs Aquaic producs DOI: /jss Open Journal of Social Sciences

11 T. J. Liu e al. in he nex five years in he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, we know ha he sales rose slighly, and we also affirm ha he necessiy o develop he cold chain logisics under he inegraion siuaion. The economic posiioning of he hree disrics is differen and he indusrial layou and urban planning in he hree regions are inconsisen. This inconsisency can also lead o inconsisencies in he flow and direcion of he cold chain logisics. The bes soluion is o form a circulaing sysem of he Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Moreover, he inegraion will make good use of he comparaive advanages of he regions o form a fixed ime fresh agriculural producs logisics circle around Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, so as o consruc an efficien food cold chain disribuion sysem, which is beneficial o drive he sale of fresh agriculural producs. A he same ime, i can provide reference for he governmen o plan he logisics parks and invesors o inves in he cold chain indusry of local fresh agriculural producs. Therefore, i is promising o develop cold chain logisics of fresh agriculural producs under he inegraion of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Acknowledgemens This work was suppored by funding projec for Youh Talen Culivaion Plan of Beijing Ciy Universiy Under he gran number (CIT & TCD ), Beijing Key Laboraory (NO:BZ0211) and Beijing Inelligen Logisics Sysem Collaboraive Innovaion Cener. References [1] Zhao, Y.J., Wang, S.J., Su, Y.N. and Dai, Y.Y. (2015) SWOT Analysis of Agriculural Super-Docking in Hebei Province under he Coordinaed Developmen of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Logisics Technology, 4, [2] Zhao, R. (2016) A SWOT Analysis and Counermeasures for he Coordinaed Developmen of Regional Economic and Regional Logisics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. Logisics Technology, 35, [3] Wang, X.H., Zong, Y.S. Wang, G.B. and Ding, L.F. (2013) Agriculural Cold Chain Logisics Demand Impeus and Developmen Sraegies in Shanxi Province. Journal of Shanxi Agriculural Science, 9, [4] Jiang, L.L. (2013) Sudy on Cold Chain Logisics Model of Agriculural Producs in Hebei Province Based on Demand Analysis. Thesis, Hebei Normal Universiy, Hebei. DOI: /jss Open Journal of Social Sciences